The Initial estimate of GDP systematically biased up says
Nouriel Roubini in a recent twitter message , "Q1 (Q3) growh initially estimated at 1.5% (2.5) then sharply revised downward to 0.4% (1.8).Initial estimate of GDP systematically biased up" "As we expected Q3 growth estimate down to 1.8% on much lower discretionary service spending. This is a bias in all initial GDP estimates" he added "Upward biases in initial GDP estimates: consumption of discretionary services; sample of large producers & retailers while SME are slumping" he explained
Nouriel Roubini nicknamed Dr. Doom and lately Dr. Realist by CNBC , is a professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics, an economic consultancy firm . Prof. Nouriel Roubini A world-class economist who offers an unflinching look at the global meltdown and distinctive insights into its course going forward. His research on financial crisis in emerging economics has yielded a unique and now vindicated approach to future collapses. Roubini speaks on the global economic outlook and its implications for the financial markets. From his analysis of past collapses of emerging economies, he has identified common factors that support his predictions of crisis in the US and world markets. He has held several high-level advisory positions in the US government and international finance organisations, published numerous policy papers and books on key international macro-economic issues and is regularly cited as an authority in
