Nouriel Roubini: 5 Reasons for Economic Optimism

Nouriel Roubini: 5 Reasons for Economic Optimism .Next year the world's problems -- from the sputtering recovery in the U.S. to monetary crisis in Europe to the slowdown in China -- could overwhelm the economy, says NYU economist Nouriel Roubini

Dr. Doom 2013 prediction: Economist Nouriel Roubini recently stated that a "perfect storm" for economic disaster is currently brewing, and he stands behind his beliefs. Considering Roubini is the guy who accurately predicted the country's previous financial disaster, it's safe to assume that countless buttholes are being clenched whenever this guy has something to say. And while you may think the 2008 crisis was the worst that could happen, Dr. Doom feels that 2013 is going to be much worse. Roubini, who teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business, explained the economic disaster looming on the horizon could cause the global financial system to "grind to a halt", which isn't the sort of thing you want to hear when you're attempting to keep your family's heads above water. Most folks are still trying desperately to regain the foothold they lost during 2008′s disaster, never mind preparing for a much larger problem down the road. Dr. Doom's theory: Tax increases and spending cuts will push the United States into yet another recession. This, combined with Europe's debt crisis, China's wonky economy, and a potential military presence in Iran, could shove most of the civilized world towards a complete collapse. The problem, of course, is that we're quickly heading towards the point of no return. Unless something is done immediately to turn the tide, turmoil seems inevitable. "There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth," Roubini explained.

Roubini : 2012 a flat year for U.S. Stocks

Nouriel Roubini : “There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth,”
“targeting the 10-year Treasury at 1 percent, doing credit easing rather than quantitative easing, targeting nominal GDP, price-level targeting and lots of stuff that is more esoteric, Eventually if everything goes wrong, they can even buy equities.” said Nouriel Roubini - in a recent interview with Reuters

Roubini ‏: Q3 now looks worse than Q2

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " GDP grew at a pathetically mediocre rate of 1.5% in Q2; final sales even worse at 1.2%. Q3 now looks worse than Q2. US is at stall speed " - in twitter

Roubini : Critical times for the Eurozone Future

Nouriel Roubini : " I will be in Paris today for policy and business meetings. Critical times for the EZ future " in a twitter message today

Roubini : Central Banks will do more Quantitative Easings

Nouriel Roubini : "Everyone is going to do more monetary easing...We live in a world in which the problems of the advanced economies are not problems of liquidity. Banks have plenty of liquidity. The problems are fundamental solvency. So just throwing money at it implies that the loss will continue to collapse and banks will hold extra money in the form of excess reserves. The credit mechanism is broken and there is no creation of growth in most advanced economies. So it doesn't affect real economic activity." - in Bloomberg

Cohen Bros, Quentin Tarantino, Bennett Miller, Jim Jarmusch to direct US Olympic opening ceremony.

Nouriel Roubini : "Cohen Bros, Quentin Tarantino, Bennett Miller, Jim Jarmusch to direct US Olympic opening ceremony."
"I propose Cohen Bros or Bennett Miller to direct op ceremony of next US Olympics rather than usual Hollywood infantile-blockbuster director " says Nouriel Roubini in a twitter message

Nouriel Roubini ‏: US is at stall speed

Nouriel Roubini ‏: GDP grew at a pathetically mediocre rate of 1.5% in Q2; final sales even worse at 1.2%. Q3 now looks worse than Q2. US is at stall speed - in twitter

Roubini : China to face full-fledged Hard Landing next year

Nouriel Roubini : "By next year, China could face a full-fledged hard landing that will make this year's landing look soft by comparison," - in investmentweek

Sicily to sink like Greece

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Indeed Magna Grecia @leoni_katia: @Nouriel Fears mount over Sicily's sinking economy http://aje.me/MHljCX Remember Sicilia was Magna Grecia! " - in a twitter message

ROUBINI : Grexit before Fixit (Finland Exit)

NOURIEL ROUBINI : "Grexit before Fixit (Finland exit)? Hard to tell if 1st one to exit will be in core or periphery. Finland gotta get out be4 losses emerge " Roubini said in a twitter message " Finland exposed to Grexit & other periphery exits via EFSF, ESM and ECB's Target-2 balances. Its potential losses =0 if Finland exits early " he added

Roubini : Endgame for Eurozone is starting

Nouriel Roubini : " Endgame of EZ is starting: Greece will exit by 2013 while Italy & Spain will need a Troika program after half-baked attempts by ECB to help " said Roubini in a twitter message " Troika pressure on Greece:ECB not accepting collateral;Germany talking exit; IMF signaling prog stop. Posturing in game of chix or for real? " he added

Nouriel Roubini's Devastating Diagnosis

A'' perfect storm'' in 2013 on the world economy Professor Nouriel Roubini forecasted in a recent Reuters interview - Nouriel Roubini, is a professor at New York University who predicted the crisis of 2008. Roubini gives five factors contributing to the 2013 storm: the worsening crisis in Europe; tax increases and spending cuts in the U.S. could slip into recession, cooling Chinese economy, the slowdown in emerging markets, and the military confrontation in Iran.

Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economist nicknamed "Doctor Doom" for his prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, believes that events are again turning against the global economy. (July 18, 2012)

Roubini : If The US starts to sneeze The rest of the world will catch pneumonia

Nouriel Roubini : .....A significant equity-price correction could, in fact, be the force that in 2013 tips the US economy into outright contraction. And if the US (still the world’s largest economy) starts to sneeze again, the rest of the world – its immunity already weakened by Europe’s malaise and emerging countries’ slowdown – will catch pneumonia. - in project-syndicate

ROUBINI: Falling Stock Prices Will End The US Growth Fairy Tale

Nouriel Roubini : "The gravity of weaker growth will most likely overcome the levitational effect on equity prices from more quantitative easing, particularly given that equity valuations today are not as depressed as they were in 2009 or 2010. Indeed, growth in earnings and profits is now running out of steam, as the effect of weak demand on top-line revenues takes a toll on bottom-line margins and profitability. A significant equity-price correction could, in fact, be the force that in 2013 tips the US economy into outright contraction. And if the US (still the world’s largest economy) starts to sneeze again, the rest of the world – its immunity already weakened by Europe’s malaise and emerging countries’ slowdown – will catch pneumonia. .... " - in project syndicate
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Roubini : Greece, Portugal & Spain in a Free Fall Abyss

Nouriel Roubini : " Indeed it looks like a free fall abyss @ekathimerini: Greece, Portugal & Spain are staring into the same economic abyss http://dlvr.it/1tQPQx "roubini wrote in a twitter message
" From national to regional sovereign distress: Sicily in Italy;Valencia in Spain. Including such implicit liabilities public debts are higher " He added

Roubini: Global Perfect Storm Looms

Nouriel Roubini : " Next year the world's problems -- from the sputtering recovery in the U.S. to monetary crisis in Europe to the slowdown in China -- could overwhelm the economy,"
The euro zone needs to move quickly toward closer fiscal and political integration or risk falling off a cliff, says NYU economist Nouriel Roubini in this interview with Reuters TV on July 18, 2012

Nouriel : American Pie in the Sky

NEW YORK – While the risk of a disorderly crisis in the eurozone is well recognized, a more sanguine view of the United States has prevailed. For the last three years, the consensus has been that the US economy was on the verge of a robust and self-sustaining recovery that would restore above-potential growth. That turned out to be wrong, as a painful process of balance-sheet deleveraging – reflecting excessive private-sector debt, and then its carryover to the public sector – implies that the recovery will remain, at best, below-trend for many years to come.
Even this year, the consensus got it wrong, expecting a recovery to above-trend annual GDP growth – faster than 3%. But the first-half growth rate looks set to come in closer to 1.5% at best, even below 2011’s dismal 1.7%. And now, after getting the first half of 2012 wrong, many are repeating the fairy tale that a combination of lower oil prices, rising auto sales, recovering house prices, and a resurgence of US manufacturing will boost growth in the second half of the year and fuel above-potential growth by 2013.
CommentsThe reality is the opposite: for several reasons, growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013 – close to stall speed. First, growth in the second quarter has decelerated from a mediocre 1.8% in January-March, as job creation – averaging 70,000 a month – fell sharply . in project syndicate
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Roubini : 5 Factors could derail the Global Economy

Five Factors could derail the Global Economy , Those factors are:

• A worsening of the debt crisis in Europe
• Tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world’s biggest economy into recession
• A hard landing for China’s economy
• Further slowing in emerging markets
• A military confrontation with Iran

according to New York University Economics professor Nouriel Roubini “Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)…then we have a global perfect storm,” Roubini told Reuters in a recent interview - in Business Financial Post

Roubini sticks to 2013 Perfect Storm Prediction

Nouriel Roubini : "Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm," Roubini said in a video interview with Reuters today

"There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth," said Roubini.

Roubini : US Q3 Growth could be well below 1%

Nouriel Roubini : " US Q2 GDP growth looks like 1.2% at best. Q3 looks worse as fall in June sales & excessive inventories rise implies even weaker growth in Q3 " Roubini said today in twitter
" Q3 growth could be well below 1% given June sales report and unintended inventory build up. US at stall speed " he added

Nouriel Roubini : The UK likely to exit the EU within the Next 3 Years

Nouriel Roubini : "Will the UK exit the EU & when?Likely in the next 3yrs. Will the UK on net benefit from exit? There are benefits & cost. The net is a lil >0 " - in twitterNouriel Roubini : The UK likely to exit the EU within the Next 3 Years

Roubini : The Bankers should be Hanged in the streets

Nouriel Roubini : "To be exact I proposed hanging them in the streets rather than beheading @AlistairNic: @Nouriel @Williamw1 Your idea is beheading?Excellent! "
Nouriel said in a twitter message "So my idea is old @Williamw1: Fascinating context for Libor:in 13th cntry financier R. Lyons was imprisoned & then beheaded for rate rigging " He added in a second message

Deflation not Inflation is The Greater Risk

Nouriel Roubini : " Indeed inflation expectations are very low:rather greater risk of deflation @NYTimeskrugman:Is Our Economists Learning? http://nyti.ms/LnPb5A " - in Twitter

Roubini : Consumer sentiment weakens further in July

Nouriel Roubini : Consumer sentiment weakens further in July in spite of lower oil prices. Perhaps because such low oil prices reflect global growth weakness - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : A Perfect Storm by Next Year

Nouriel Roubini : "All of it matters in the sense that we're kicking the can down the road. The Europeans do not want to make the decisions and there will be political elections in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. We have the U.S. presidential election and until then, we're not going to do anything about our fiscal problem. In China, there is a stall right now because of the leadership transition that happens once in a decade and important decisions about their growth model has to be done. The problem is that every part of the world is kicking down the road to 2013. At this time we're reaching a point in which by next year, you could be in a scenario in which we hit a brick wall, and then euro zone breaks up, in the U.S. you have a fiscal cliff, in China the landing could be hard and in the Middle East you could have a war. That is a perfect storm." - in Bloomberg

Roubini : Italy can threaten to leave The Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : " Not a bluff:Italy can credibly threaten to leave EZ if Germany/ECB don't help @juanmjm: Bluff? MT: @Nouriel: Italy pressuring Ger/ECB to act "says Roubini in a twitter message
" Italy pressuring Ger/ECB to act @ReutersJamie: Wow:bank of italy governor says euro zone breakup a possibility,albeit a "remote possibility" " He added

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Finland doing its best to dig the Eurozone grave while not falling in it

" Finland's creeping exit from EZ (Fixit): collateral 4 Greece bailout;opposition 2 EFSF/ESM flex use;collateral request for EFSF Spain rescue " says Nouriel Roubini in a twitter message
" Finland creeping exit from EZ goes on: after opposing flex use of ESM/EFSF it now demands collateral for its share of EFSF Spain bank rescue "
"Finnish PM says the euro area is in a “very dangerous situation” while Finland is doing its best to dig the EZ grave while not falling in it " Roubini added - Finland’s prime minister, Jyrki Katainen, issued a warning Wednesday that the euro’s predicament was as perilous as at any time in the past two years. “This situation is dangerous, very dangerous,” he said in an interview with Finland’s biggest daily, Helsingin Sanomat.

Nouriel Roubini : in 2013 we will hit a Brick Wall

Nouriel Roubini :"All of it matters in the sense that we're kicking the can down the road. The Europeans do not want to make the decisions and there will be political elections in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. We have the U.S. presidential election and until then, we're not going to do anything about our fiscal problem. In China, there is a stall right now because of the leadership transition that happens once in a decade and important decisions about their growth model has to be done. The problem is that every part of the world is kicking down the road to 2013. At this time we're reaching a point in which by next year, you could be in a scenario in which we hit a brick wall, and then euro zone breaks up, in the U.S. you have a fiscal cliff, in China the landing could be hard and in the Middle East you could have a war. That is a perfect storm." - in Bloomberg

Roubini : ‏2013 Perfect Storm Scenario

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" If perfect storm occurs difference btw 2008 & now is:then we had all the policy bullets;now we running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat "
Roubini wrote in twitter " 2013 perfect storm scenario I wrote on months ago is unfolding: EZ crisis, US stall speed, China hard landing, EM stall, MidEast time bomb " He added

Roubini : 2013 Storm May Surpass 2008 Crisis

Roubini : 2013 Storm May Surpass 2008 Crisis

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini from Aix-en-Provence, France talks to Bloomberg TV about what he calls "greedy" bankers, the euro-zone crisis and risks facing the global economy in 2013. " ...the incentives of the banks are still to cheat or to do things that are immoral and the only way top avoid that is to break-up this financial supermarket " Roubini says Bankers are greedy and they have been greedy for the last 2000 years he explains " i think that by 2013 the ability of the politicians to kick the can down the road is going to run out of steam , in the Eurozone the slow motion train wreck could become a faster motion train wreck , the US looks like close to stall motion and another recession given the recent economic data the landing of China is becoming harder rather than softer , the other emerging markets are also sharply slowing down all of the BRICKS , China Russia India Brazil also Mexico and Turkey and a lot of other emerging markets partly because of the recession in the Eurozone in the UK and now stall speed in the US and finally there is the time bomb of a potential war between Israel the US and Iran ...so it is a perfect storm...": says Nouriel Roubini

Roubini : Eurozone is back to Extreme Crisis

Nouriel Roubini : With Ita/Spa spreads back close to highs, Germany vetoing Ebonds, ECB resisting QE, ESM/EFSF bazooka too small, EZ is back to extreme crisis- in twitter

Roubini : The real issue is what QE4 or QE5 will look like,

Nouriel Roubini : The issue is not whether or when the Fed does QE3; it is rather what will QE4 or QE5 look like, as I argued over a year ago. - in twitter

Roubini : Central Banks Worldwide are Worried

Nouriel Roubini : " ECB brings deposit rate to 0%. But it could in the future push it to a negative rate to induce banks not to hoard excess reserves at the ECB Expand "
"Trifecta today of monetary easing / policy rate cuts: PBOC, BOE & now ECB. A clear sign of how weak global growth is & how worried CBs are" - in twitter

Chinese Slowdown : China cuts interest rate by 25 bps

Nouriel Roubini : " Another sign of how worried Chinese policy makers are about slowing growth in China @theanalyst_hk: China cuts interest rate by 25 bps " - in Twitter

Roubini : Germany will have to accept debt mutualization or debt monetization by the ECB

Nouriel Roubini : " To backstop Italy/Spain flex use of ESM/EFSF isn't enough. Germany will have to accept debt mutualization or debt monetization by the ECB " - in twitter

Roubini : Italian Recession shows no sign of bottoming out

Nouriel Roubini : " I am back to Rome from Florence for more policy meetings today. Italian recession shows no sign of bottoming out " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini in Italy for a keynote speech on the Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : " After Paris and London I am today in Rome for policy meetings and a keynote speech " "I am keynote speaker today at a conference on the Eurozone at the European University Institute in Fiesole on the hills near Florence" Roubini added in a second twitter message Roubini will held his speech at The European University Institute in old Badia Fiesolana near Florence. Location of Eurozone conference

Roubini : Merkel wrong on Eurobonds

Nouriel Roubini : "She was talking to both of them. The trouble is if there is not going to be an agreement on some point on having e-bonds I think the situation in Europe is going to become disorderly. Italy and Spain were are doing massive fiscal adjustment, but their spreads are still very high...At some point the Germans will decide, do I take the credit risk of backstopping Spanish and Italian debt in exchange for some loss of national fiscal sovereignty by Italy and Spain in which case the euro zone has a chance to survive. Otherwise, this will become disorderly in the next few months." - in Bloomberg

Roubini : More Monetary Easing Everywhere

Nouriel Roubini : "Everyone is going to do more monetary easing...We live in a world in which the problems of the advanced economies are not problems of liquidity. Banks have plenty of liquidity. The problems are fundamental solvency. So just throwing money at it implies that the loss will continue to collapse and banks will hold extra money in the form of excess reserves. The credit mechanism is broken and there is no creation of growth in most advanced economies. So it doesn't affect real economic activity."

Roubini : Eurozone malaise spreads across the Atlantic

Nouriel Roubini : " US consumer sentiment in a funk; consumer spending stalled. EZ malaise spreads across the Atlantic.Consumers/firms frozen as tail risks loom " - in twitter