Nouriel Roubini : Either the Eurozone moves toward fuller integration capped by political union or it will undergo disunion

Nouriel Roubini : .......Meanwhile, the monetary union remains an unstable disequilibrium: either the eurozone moves toward fuller integration (capped by political union to provide democratic legitimacy to the loss of national sovereignty on banking, fiscal, and economic affairs), or it will undergo disunion, dis-integration, fragmentation, and eventual breakup. And, while European Union leaders have issued proposals for a banking and fiscal union, now Germany is pushing back. German leaders fear that the risk-sharing elements of deeper integration (the ESM’s recapitalization of banks, a common resolution fund for insolvent banks, eurozone-wide deposit insurance, greater EU fiscal authority, and debt mutualization) imply a politically unacceptable transfer union whereby Germany and the core unilaterally and permanently subsidize the periphery. Germany thus believes that the periphery’s problems are not the result of the absence of a banking or fiscal union; rather, on the German view, large fiscal deficits and debt reflect low potential growth and loss of competitiveness due to the lack of structural reforms. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini : QE Wars as proxies for Currency Wars in 2013

Nouriel Roubini :" QE wars as proxies for currency wars in 2013 as most economies want net export improvement given anemic domestic demand. Zero sum game " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: If a currency is weaker another is stronger

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" If a currency is weaker another is stronger; if a trade balance is improved another is worsened. Zero sum game in currencies/trade balances " - in twitter

Roubini : QE wars may be positive-sum game But let's not call them currency wars that are zero-sum games

Nouriel Roubini : " QE wars may be positive-sum game in a world where nominal demand is depressed. But let's not call them currency wars that are zero-sum games " - in twitter

Roubini : Asian Territorial issues will create Geopolitical Tensions in 2013

Nouriel Roubini : Asian islands/territorial issues will create geopolitical noise/tensions in 2013. More nationalistic new governments in China, Japan, Korea - in twitter

Roubini : The Debt Ceiling is a dumb idea

Nouriel Roubini : " The debt ceiling is a dumb idea: once Congress votes a budget, that determines the debt issued.So this yearly farce/saga on ceiling is crazy " - in twitter

Roubini : a massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain have been reduced for 2013

Nouriel Roubini :........The tail risks of a Greek exit from the eurozone or a massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain have been reduced for 2013. But the fundamental crisis of the eurozone has not been resolved, and another year of muddling through could revive these risks in a more virulent form in 2014 and beyond. Unfortunately, the eurozone crisis is likely to remain with us for years to come, sustaining the likelihood of coercive debt restructurings and eurozone exits.

 - in project-syndicate

Roubini : US Retailers face hohum Holiday Sales

Nouriel Roubini : " Cliff uncertainty & flat real incomes give blues @MacroScope: US retailers face hohum holiday sales, early data suggest http://reut.rs/Tw3OJf "
" Credit risk deterioration @Dvolatility: Bond Ratings Cuts Advance to Fastest Since ’09: Credit Markets http://bloom.bg/12OFoex via @Bloomberg " in twitter

Roubini : 2nd Amendment Falsely Interpreted

Nouriel Roubini :"2nd Amendment gives right to every American to carry any gun, assault weapon, bazooka, tank, missile, rocket, biochemical/nuclear weapon"
"If 2nd amendment gave right to carry weapons - & it doesn't - every1 should have right to own any weapon including missiles, tanks, rockets "
"Bio/chemical/nuclear weapons don't kill people. People kill people. Legalize bio/chemical/nuclear weapons... "
"2nd amendment falsely interpreted 2 give nonexistent individual right to bear arms. It doesnt. It gives that right only to defense militias " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Happy Cliffmas!

Nouriel Roubini : "Happy Cliffmas! "
" Greek Bond Buyback May Have Been Cheaper Under Collective Action Clause http://bit.ly/RNso7O But Greece didn't use them & overpaid investors " - in twitter

Roubini : Balkanization of Economic Activity, Banking systems, and public-debt markets continues

Nouriel Roubini : ........Moreover, balkanization of economic activity, banking systems, and public-debt markets continues, as foreign investors flee the eurozone periphery and seek safety in the core. Private and public debt levels are high and possibly unsustainable. After all, the loss of competitiveness that led to large external deficits remains largely unaddressed, while adverse demographic trends, weak productivity gains, and slow implementation of structural reforms depress potential growth. CommentsTo be sure, there has been some progress in the eurozone periphery in the last few years: fiscal deficits have been reduced, and some countries are now running primary budget surpluses (the fiscal balance excluding interest payments). Likewise, competitiveness losses have been partly reversed as wages have lagged productivity growth, thus reducing unit labor costs, and some structural reforms are ongoing. - in project-syndicate

Roubini : The drag from the Periphery was now hitting he Eurozone’s core

Nouriel Roubini : “Unless we restore economic growth in five years’ time this will become financially, socially and politically unsustainable. Europe has not spent enough time talking about what are the intelligent and creative ways to jump-start economic growth in the periphery and the core.” He pointed to potential infrastructure expenditure, even in Germany, and added the Eurozone’s periphery needed the euro to weaken “10% to 20%” against major trading partners’ currencies, whereas Germany “could live with the euro at 130”. He said the drag from the periphery was now hitting he Eurozone’s core, and it is now “quite clear France, for example, is entering recession and next year there will be a degree of debt consolidation [there].” - in investmenteurope

Roubini : Mayan End of the World Cliff avoided but now the Fiscal Cliff looms closer

Nouriel Roubini : "Mayan End of the World Cliff avoided but now the Fiscal Cliff looms closer as deadlock btw Dems and Reps acute. Likely we go over the cliff"
"As we survived the End of the World we can now celebrate the Winter Solstice... " - in twitter

Roubini : Everyday in America there is a Newtown massacre

Nouriel Roubini : "Every day in the U.S. there is a Newtown massacre as 30 folks die daily from homicide every single day of the year "
" National (Selling) Rifle Association "solution" to gun violence: sell another 100,000 guns to give even more profits to gun manufacturers" - in twitter

Roubini : Gold price may have reached its choke level

Nouriel Roubini : What’s bugging gold? | FT Alphaville http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1315162 Losing its shine. Why is the gold price not moving?
Capping the gold price, FT Alphaville http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1298491 Gold price may have reached its choke level & may capped from this point on - in twitter

Roubini :The Eurozone day of reckoning has been delayed but not averted for good

Nouriel Roubini :The Eurozone's day of reckoning has been delayed but not averted for good | Nouriel Roubini http://bit.ly/TCGs0W - in twitter

Roubini : Germany’s Attitude toward the Eurozone & Greece has changed

Nouriel Roubini : .....Germany’s attitude toward the eurozone in general, and Greece in particular, has changed. German officials now understand that, given extensive trade and financial links, a disorderly eurozone hurts not just the periphery but the core. They have stopped making public statements about a possible Greek exit, and just supported a third bailout package for the country. As long as Spain and Italy remain vulnerable, a Greek blowup could spark severe contagion before Germany’s election next year, jeopardizing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chances of winning another term. So Germany will continue to finance Greece for the time being. - in project-syndicate

Roubini: Weak U.S. Growth Ahead, Cliff Dive

Economist Nouriel Roubini appeared on "Bloomberg Surveillance" with Tom Keene and said that U.S. growth will be "barely 1.7%" in 2013. Roubini also said that "there's a highly likely chance we're going to go over the cliff. If we do so, the market reaction is going to force the two sides to reach an agreement."

Roubini: Housing Optimists Will Be Proven Wrong

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, discusses the strength of the housing recovery and where he sees manufacturing in the United States. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Roubini : Unless we restore economic growth in five years time this will become financially, socially and politically unsustainable

Nouriel Roubini : “There is still room for cutting the policy rate, right now at 0.75%. Why is the ECB waiting? You could cut it to a negative level. “Unless we restore economic growth in five years’ time this will become financially, socially and politically unsustainable. Europe has not spent enough time talking about what are the intelligent and creative ways to jump-start economic growth in the periphery and the core.” - in investmenteurope

Roubini: Bad News for Housing & for Europe

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, discusses the strength of the housing recovery and the global impact of the spread of the European recession. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Roubini : Fed Inflation Targeting Out the Window

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, talks about Federal Reserve monetary policy, the outlook for the global economy and the U.S. budget negotiations. He speaks with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : The FED decision today is QE5

Nouriel Roubini :" Fed decision today is QE5 as Op Twist was QE3 (sterilized QE=unsterilized at 0% rates) & open-ended QE in Q3 was QE4. So today is QE5! " - in twitter

Roubini : QE4 coming soon ?

Nouriel Roubini : " How much when we will get to QE4? @tomkeene: Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying - Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/YY0JUy " - in twitter

Roubini Lecture at MIP on the 6th November 2012

Roubini's Lecture at MIP on the 6th November 2012 entitled "Europe and the future of the global economy", held by Professor Nouriel Roubini on 6 November at the Milan Polytechnic.

Roubini : Japan Sinks Into Technical Recession

Nouriel Roubini :"Japan Sinks Into Technical Recession With Two Contractions http://bloom.bg/SQgHez via @BloombergNews " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Italy thrown early into Electoral Season

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" Italy thrown early into electoral season @MacroScope: Italian PM Monti 2 resign as soon as next year's budget is passed http://uk.mobile.reuters.com/article/article/idUKBRE8B70DH20121208 … " - in twitter

Roubini : Fiscal austerity is Necessary

Nouriel Roubini : “Fiscal austerity is necessary, but when it is front-loaded, raising taxes and cutting transfer payments, it affects economic activity in the short-term. You need austerity, otherwise you would have a crisis, but you can have a recession driven by front-loaded austerity. When people realise they have to tighten their belts, they need to be able to see light at the end of the tunnel.” - in investmenteurope

Roubini : For the next decade the most important thing from a global point of view will be how to manage the peaceful rise of China

Nouriel Roubini : " For the next decade the most important thing from a global point of view will be how to manage the peaceful rise of China. Every time there has been the emergence of a new major power in the world facing an established power, it ended in war. We saw it with Germany, we saw it with Japan. “In a world of growing power of China…even a country like Germany that is economically strong will be a geopolitical midget. If Europe wants to express itself in the next decade it must be united.” - in investmenteurope

Roubini : fiscal austerity in the periphery could turn a Recession into a Depression

Nouriel Roubini : “Front-loaded fiscal austerity in the periphery could turn a recession into a depression.” - in investmenteurope

Roubini : Bearish ECB forecasts for 2013

Nouriel Roubini : " Bearish ECB forecasts for 2013- EZ recession & below target inflation - imply a Dovish ECB in 2013. So Scrooge pospones Xmas gifts to Easter "
"ECB baseline for 2013 growth and inflation so bearish - recession & below target inflation - that it will have to ease for sure in 2013 " - in twitter

Roubini : Europe must encourage Economic Growth

" an extension to the timeline would be valid for Greece and “also be valid” for other peripheral countries that may need central finance, such as Italy or Portugal." “We could certainly postpone austerity, or do marginal stimulus on a temporary basis,” “Front-loaded fiscal austerity in the periphery could turn a recession into a depression.” Roubini said Speaking at the annual risk management conference of Union Investment in Germany " the Eurozone achieving growth soon was crucial, “because you are trying to stabilise debts and deficits as a percentage of GDP and if the denominator is falling you can do whatever you like with the numerator.” He added - in investmenteurope

Roubini : Can the US decouple from the Recession risk as the cliff looms?

Nouriel Roubini :" Many advanced economies (EZ, UK, Japan) were in a recession in Q3 and/or Q4 of 2013. Can the US decouple from this risk as the cliff looms? " - in twitter

Interview with Nouriel Roubini, an Economic Perspective

Sharing economic views with Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics at the Stern School of Business, New York University, chairman of Roubini Global Economics (Company specializing in financial analysis and macro-economic research). Nouriel Roubini was one of the first harbingers of the economic crisis in 2006, which earned him the nickname "Prophet." Recognized in the world of finance and economic research, he gives us his point of view in this fascinating interview.

Roubini :The Davos of our Discontent Davos Cliff

Nouriel Roubini :" Look forward to it! @tomkeene: The Davos of our Discontent (it was); the dithering Davos (and they did); 2013: Davos Cliff #wef @ianbremmer " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini - Wiki Article

Nouriel Roubini - Wiki Article ."Roubini" redirects here. For the financial analysis firm, see Roubini Global Economics. Nouriel Roubini (born March 28, 1959) is an American economist. He anticipated the collapse of the United Sta...
Nouriel Roubini - Wiki Article - http://wikiplays.org
Original @ http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouriel_Roubin,

Roubini Sees Recession in Periphery Beyond 2013

Nov. 15 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC and New York University professor, discusses the U.S. and Turkish economies, the European sovereign-debt crisis and unrest in Syria and Iran. He spoke with Bloomberg HT's Hande Berktan in Adana, Turkey. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : Germany displaces China as US Treasury's currency villain

Nouriel Roubini :" Germany displaces China as US Treasury's currency villain http://bit.ly/QO9M75 While China's trade surplus shrank that of Germany stays high " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Barroso's EU Blueprint document deserves careful study

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Ambitious plan that will take yrs to implement @stephenkinsella: Barroso's EU Blueprint document deserves careful study http://ec.europa.eu/commission_2010-2014/president/news/archives/2012/11/pdf/blueprint_en.pdf … " - in twitter

Roubini : GDP Growth will have Q4 payback

Nouriel Roubini : " W/o inventories change, US final sales in Q3 grew at 1.9%, less than the previously estimated 2.1%. So 2.7% GDP growth will have Q4 payback " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Good News for Argentina

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Good news for Argentina: The Court of Appeals granted the emergency stay & gave 3 months for the appeal process to take place " - in twitter

Roubini : Disguised Greek debt forgiveness Buys time

Nouriel Roubini : " "@FT: Opinion: Disguised Greek debt forgiveness buys time http://on.ft.com/UpYsgB " ...to achieve undisguised debt relief after German elections "
"Greek debt deal is close to a Brady par bond. It gives NPV debt relief, via lower rate & maturity stretch, in spite of no face value haircut "
"Greece got real OSI debt relief via a Brady-style Par bond that, on an NPV basis, is equivalent to a Discount bond with face value reduction " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Germany prefers a single vote on bailouts of Greece & Spain

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Germany prefers a single vote on bailouts of Greece & Spain given the resistance of the Bundestag to further bailouts. 2 birds with 1 stone " - in twitter

Roubini : Europe of Regions rather than Europe of Nation States? But fat chance of this happening

Nouriel Roubini : " Catxit, Basqxit, Scotxit, Brixit, Valloxit, Flemxit, Finxit may follow Grexit? Europe of Regions rather than Europe of Nation States? "
"Nassim Taleb idea of Anti-Fragile implies that a EU of regions would work better than a EU of nations. But fat chance of this happening "

Roubini : Investment Falls Off a Cliff

Nouriel Roubini : " Investment Falls Off a Cliff, WSJ http://bit.ly/T6fbBR US Capex spending is contracting due to slower global growth & fiscal cliff worries |
"Cash-strapped US consumers apparently cheery & spending while cash-rich US firms cutting sharply on capex spending & cautious on hiring "Cash-strapped US consumers apparently cheery & spending while cash-rich US firms cutting sharply on capex spending & cautious on hiring " - in twitter

Roubini warns Argentina is heading for a highly vulnerable State Capitalism

Nouriel Roubini : “Argentina has moved away from market oriented policies with imports substitution protectionist measures; national control over natural resources; a more predominant role for state companies and banks and discouraging foreign investments and the influx of capital” “These policies have a negative impact for investors and consumers’ confidence, which on the long run has its influence on growth”. said Nouriel Roubini who was invited to the annual convention of the Argentine Chamber of Construction in Buenos Aires. - in mercopress