Saturday, December 19, 2009

Nouriel Roubini Bullish Latin America 2010

Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini on Latin America's 2010 Outlook

AS/COA hosted a presentation by Chairman of Roubini Global Economics RGE and New York University Professor of Economics Nouriel Roubini. Watch the video.
Roubini: There are two things. One is that global economic and financial conditions are improving. There is a recovery of growth even if it’s going to be anemic. Commodity prices have been rising. Financial conditions remain easy. Capital is flowing back to emerging markets. So that is the global outlook.

And two, these countries have shown their own resilience. Their economic policies have been sound and they’ve been able to conduct countercyclical policies. They’ve not experienced a financial crisis in these episodes. Their overall fundamentals are sound, so the combination of maintaining sound fundamentals and right economic policies with improvement in the global economic outlook implies a recovery.

Even with this recovery, the trend was 5.5 percent growth for the last eight or so years. Now we’re expecting only 3.8 percent. Of course, it’s much better than last year when there was a contraction, but it’s still below potential and below trend for 2010 in our view. We’re less bullish than some of those houses that suggested Latin America actually could go back to potential growth next year.

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Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.