Sunday, March 24, 2013

Nouriel Roubini 2013 Global Economic Outlook



Nouriel Roubini :  The tail risk of something disorderly in the eurozone – like a Greek exit or Italy and Spain losing market access that were severe risks in the middle of last year – have basically been reduced because they have announced this new program of bond purchases, the OMT, there is this new ESM, there is another half a trillion euros out there for banks and sovereign, because there is talk about a banking and fiscal union, and because now Germany has used the words about the periphery of the eurozone that are more constructive.

    But if you look at the fundamental problem in the eurozone: lack of economic growth and continued recession, low potential growth because of demographics and lack of reforms, 2) debt sustainability - official and private – are too high, and 3) lack and loss of competitiveness, and a large external deficit that the private sector does not want to finance – those fundamental problems of the eurozone have not been resolved, they may have been pushed by a few quarters, but fundamental problems of growth, competitiveness and sustainability have not been resolved.
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