Nouriel Roubini : I do not expect a Recession in the US | NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

Wednesday, June 12, 2013

Nouriel Roubini : I do not expect a Recession in the US

Nouriel Roubini : I do not expect a recession in the US. The effect of the fiscal drag on growth is going to be significant. Between raising taxes and cutting spending through sequester, you have a fiscal drag which is probably close to 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) and I expect the US economy to grow this year below trend at 1.6% or 1.7%. I do not expect a double-dip recession. The situation is different in Japan. It has several quarters of negative growth, recession and ongoing deflation. What the government is doing right now is restoring ambition to do monetary and fiscal stimulus to stop deflation, jump start the economic growth, weaken yen and boost stock market. The monetary and fiscal easing is necessary. But, on the other side, over time Japan will have to think about doing fiscal consolidation because debt is high and unsustainable. If Japan wants to grow faster, it will have to do structural reforms to liberalize the economy and trade. As long as Japan does all the steps such as monetary and fiscal easing, structural reforms and trade liberalization there is a chance that things will work out. Instead, it Japan does only monetary and fiscal easing and does not focus on structural reforms and trade liberation, the monetary easing effects will fizzle out. - in livemint

Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.