Recent
events have further weakened market-oriented, Western-leaning factions
in Russia and strengthened the state-capitalist, nationalist factions,
who are now pushing for faster establishment of the EAU. In particular,
the tension with Europe and the United States over Ukraine will shift
Russia’s energy and raw-material exports – and the related pipelines –
toward Asia and China.
Likewise, Russia and its BRICS partners (Brazil, India, China, and South Africa) are creating a development bank
that is to serve as an alternative to the Western-controlled
International Monetary Fund and the World Bank. Revelations of
electronic surveillance by the US may lead Russia – and other illiberal
states – to restrict Internet access and create their own nationally
controlled data networks. There is even talk of Russia and China
creating an alternative international payment system to replace the
SWIFT system, which the US and Europe can use to impose financial
sanctions against Russia.
Creating
a full EAU – one that is gradually less tied to the West by trade,
financial, economic, payments, communications, and political links – may
be a pipe dream. Russia’s lack of reform and adverse demographic trends
imply low potential growth and insufficient financial resources to
create the fiscal and transfer union that is needed to bring other
countries in.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-maps-out-the-kremlin-s-plan-for-a-re-divided-world#3Xff8x7HWkzrV1c2.99
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics