NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Monday, July 6, 2020
👉Despite Record Low Mortgage Rates -- Massive Foreclosures and Prices Correction Looming !!
👉Despite Record Low Mortgage Rates -- Massive Foreclosures and Prices Correction Looming !!
Mortgage rates fell to an all-time record low in the week ending 2nd July. The weekly decline came off the back of a hold in the previous week. 30-Year fixed rates fell by six basis points to an all-time low 3.07%. In the previous week, 30-year fixed rates had held steady at 3.13%. Compared to this time last year, 30-year fixed rates were down by 68 basis points. The mortgage rates are going to continue dropping. It should be 2.0 to 2.5%. There's no reason we should pay any interest in our homes when the FED is handing out free money. The math is ugly. Consider how many americans live paychecks to paycheck, how many are actually out of work, or have had income cut significantly. How slow jobs will be to return to previous levels. 10s of millions of homes just became too expensive for the people that “own” them. Homelessness will pop way up. Rates will continue to fall. Not a terrible time to get home. Wall Street is a drug addict deprived of its drug, which is frankly why the markets kept climbing. Vast amounts of liquidity, zero-bound rates, QE to infinity and beyond, are an addiction not easily kicked. Wall Street is demanding the Fed move, and the Fed acting as a cocaine pusher is happy to oblige. Trillions more dollars in "stimulus," endless money printing, eternal debt. Overpriced and rates will fall. Hyped up home prices need to go down for any chance in sales increase. More like "lenders are desperate to lock in rates that are set to decline further. No need to rush. These rates have yet to bottom and will be south of 4% for years to come. Don’t buy an overpriced home but refinance if your current mortgage has a higher interest rate. Rates will not go lower without more government help in purchasing back mortgage securities. And the Fed will pump trillions to get these rates lower and lower. Should you rush out there to get a mountain of cheap mortgage money, when you don't have a job to make the payments with? Or are the low rates only for the very wealthy? Who can once again take advantage of a crisis to put more distance between themselves and the rest of America? Would you rather get 20% off your home price when interest rates are high & then refinance to a lower rate when they fall? Or pay top dollar for your home when interest rates are low, and pay tens of thousands more over the life of the loan? Wait a couple of months, and there will be a glut of homes on the market, and very few buyers - rates won't be higher than they are today. Buying is only good if taxes are reasonable. Lower mortgage rates are great for people buying a home or refinancing, but to be eligible, people will need to have proof of employment. With many laid off right now, not too many people will be able to take advantage of the lower rates. Also, most lending institutions require a minimum of six months of employment proof. So, even if someone goes back to work right now, they may not be able to secure the lower rate since they were laid off for quite a few months. The reality is the loan rate you get is far more dependent on how much you are borrowing and your credit rating. It depends on your credit and your credit score, the higher your credit score is, the better rate you get. Many lenders will also give you a low rate without telling you if they are charging points. Make sure you ask them, because this is very deceptive, and I would stay away from that lender, which happens mostly with your online lenders. Someone with a low credit rating (below 800) will be paying 5% or more. If you borrow over $500k, the fees and points and requirements for insurance will drive your real costs up well over 5 or 6 % regardless of your credit rating. When you are looking for a loan - remember it is not about your needs - it is about how much money the banker can reasonably suck out of you. Refinancing almost never works - you have to be getting over a 2% drop and reduce your time frame by at least half - ala 30 to 15 years - to even approach not doubling your real costs. Lowering your monthly payments is a gimmick - you have to look at the total cost of the loan over its lifetime - if you do, you will understand just how dumb most changes really are. When the interest rate goes up, house prices will drop like a rock. You could also re-finance when interest goes down at some point. You can change the interest rate, but the price you pay will never change. This is one of the main reasons some people retire wealthy, and some people retire with nothing. Mortgage principals have to drop a lot. Until then, drops in rates don't mean much. Prices need to correct before most people would want to buy. Interest rates only go up during economic boom times, and that’s when tons of people are out there buying homes. Today The economy is on the brink of complete collapse: Twenty-five thousand store closures, record-setting bankruptcies. We're still 15 MILLION jobs BEHIND. We're months and months from being even. It's staggering how nobody sees this, and the 0.1 % are making fortunes on a stellar stock market while the country remains in COMPLETE TURMOIL. Home prices are through the roof. Good luck if you need to sell in a few years when rates go back up and reduce purchasing power. Homes are grossly overpriced, and the FED isn't going to be raising interest rates anytime soon. Stop trying to manufacture a sense of urgency: We're in for a very long recovery, and it hasn't actually got bad yet. Time to get out before next year's massive foreclosures hit the country. Many homes will be lost because there is no way the folks who permanently lost their jobs will ever be able to back the delayed loans. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, google has demonetized this channel, so now I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. The virus pandemic and social unrest have sparked an exodus of city dwellers to rural communities and towns. Remote access for work, and the recession, coupled with high unemployment, will extend this outbound emigration trend for the next several years as people seek cheaper living accommodations ex-metro areas. There is going to be an incredible supply of rentals. We are going to see a lot of negotiating and landlord incentives. I think we will see rates below 2% soon in an effort to juice the economy to prevent the greatly feared deflation. And on cue, the American consumer will step up and go into debt at low rates. Job security is not a problem. Let the good times roll. You are delusional if you think people are even thinking about buying right now. From 2012 to now, seven years, houses have TRIPLED in some places. There is no way people will put themselves at risk with a minute mortgage rate cut and be on the hook for HUNDREDS of thousands. No wage increases or very little. Even Texas is expensive. Property taxes are expensive, nobody has 10-25K sitting around to pay this annually, and you are on the hook for this.Plus now fewer deductions. Black Rock and the FED need to get out of US Residential housing as soon as possible. This is not their place to invest. Let Americans compete, not corporations and funny money FED printing out of thin air. Think of the '80s and '90s. You could get a single-family home in the DC area for under $200k, but the interest rate was over 15%. Today, you're hard-pressed to find a home under $500k, but the interest rates are under 3%. The monthly cost on either one is not much different. You can't have your cake and eat it too. House prices are shooting up in certain areas because of the epidemic. Coast to coast, people are fleeing cities: San Francisco Rent Drops Most On Record As People Flee For Suburbs. Wealthy Homeowners In 'Mad Rush' To Flee rats infested San Francisco. Rich People Flock To Aspen, Park City As America's Inner Cities Burn. Florida was where New York and New Jersey wealthy though they could hide from the virus - got that wrong, but the real estate prices went through the roof overnight - with 11,000 new cases every day - wonder how long that will last. California has seen a surge in near suburbs - ala the flight from San Francisco, Los Angeles, and San Diego to the smaller communities to the north and east .Many of these not big city counties are seeing surges of 20% overnight - as the wealthy in the big cities look for a second home they allow them to flee the cities and the surges in the epidemic. Many of these counties have incredibly low infection rates compared to the rest of the country - as long as that holds - this trend will continue. Rates mean almost nothing to the wealthy fleeing big cities - they are paying with cash, then financing after buying with the lowest rates available to anyone. To sum up, if you haven't considered leaving a major city - now might be the time, due mostly because a correction in housing prices is likely underway. No one wants to live in a major city infested with riots, civil unrest, crime, and high taxes. The virus is only part of the problem. The exploding crime rate is the real reason people are leaving town, and they aren't coming back. It's truly amazing to watch real estate prices spiral up and up and up, with a few cash-rich people buying up stuff they haven't even looked at in person . They buy flipped hovels that are barely livable for 200 plus a square foot sight unseen), while no one else is touching the market with a ten-foot pole. As soon as the spendthrifts run dry, there is going to be the mother of all corrections and units lying dormant without maintenance as owners just dump. Obviously, all of that real estate money is getting funneled into stocks. Until the market crashes, then it will flow into something else. Probably gold, but also some back into now vastly cheaper real estate. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. 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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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