Sunday, August 9, 2020

👉The Truth About The Stock Market Bubble -- How much bigger can it Get

👉The Truth About The Stock Market Bubble -- How much bigger can it Get

Evictions, GDP numbers, unemployment, business closures. All point to an economic disaster. Meanwhile, the stock market continues to break records, especially Nasdaq. The market is 75% overvalued, but this doesn't mean anything. Everything is fake anymore. Give away 3 or 4 trillion, and the market loves it. Most businesses are losing money, and the market loves it. Could this last forever ?. This market is skating on proverbial thin ice. The stock markets are always going toward a bubble. Knowing when it (they) will pop is the answer that people don't know. “What would it take for the bubble to pop?” Can the Fed continue buying debt at the current rate of $3 billion an hour indefinitely? Can the government mandate no evictions forever? . How high can this stock market go? For perspective, it took the market four years to reach a price-earnings ratio of 25; and a market cap to GDP of 120% after the 2008 crash. The current bubble is unlike any you've ever seen. This market is running on one thing and only one thing - money printing. The Fed will keep borrowing and flooding the system with artificially cheap money. The Fed has destroyed price discovery and free markets generally. When the bubble does burst, it will yet again be Mom and Pop America who pick up the tab for the too big to fail crowd. Former Secretary of Labor Robert Reich is right in his book: THE SYSTEM IS RIGGED. Oh well, at least we had that tax cut for the ridiculously rich, which did not "trickle-down." Too many needles are pointing at this mega bubble. When it pops, it will be devastating due to the high debt to equity ratio of developed economies and the already extreme QE. My prediction is for a collapse driven by automation unemployment and voting for re-distribution of the profits of QE printing. The Power That Be will be offshore (assets in hand) before that day of reckoning comes. The Markets have been set up to be a welfare system for Global Wall St. Retirees and Foreign Sovereign Wealth Funds. Nothing Capitalist about them. Central Banks, AI, and the FED. The Stock market melt-up until the Dollar collapses, and the world resets price discovery to a new gold standard. Stagflation and unemployment for Main Street will increase while Wall Street further financialize the economy. The smoke and mirrors will continue until the Fed has lost all credibility, which my guess is only months away. The powers that be will never admit the nation is collapsing even when it is apparent to the most oblivious fool on the street. The Wall Street buzzards are simply picking over the bones of America until all wealth has been taken, and you and your family are left destitute and starving in the street. There are two markets... one for them and one for us. Their market pursues ever-increasing gain while providing nothing of value. Our market produces all that has value for very little gain. Maintaining the optics on this shit show is becoming increasingly problematic... So what is the answer...? The velvet glove will come off to reveal the iron fist inside. Is it rational to have a rally like this? No! Are the markets EVER rational? No! Trade-in a way that takes into account that markets are not rational, they don't make sense, and they can go any way on any given day for a multitude of unknown reasons. What will be the trigger for the bubble explosion? Constitutional crisis and civil unrest later this year. US Dollar currency crisis looming. Forty million people in the U.S. at risk of eviction in the next several months. The historical data would suggest debt and overspending, followed by the collapse of the currency followed by inflation, depression, and finally, revolution. The good news is we finally get rid of the lawyers and politicians. Much of this rise has been based on nothing, so it could take nothing to reverse it. Yes, the conditions that created the bubble are obvious, and the Fed-triggered bounce is too, but now it continues its expansion based on nothing. One of those days may come when the same news that was available yesterday is available today, yet all of a sudden, the herd gets spooked, and it starts a stampede for the exit. The trigger will be when the federal government decides that it can no longer continue to pump money into the economy from deficits and the Federal Reserve decides that it can no longer continue to expand its balance sheet. This will probably happen after the election. Everybody is doing what they can to stay in office. And while the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve are not up for election, they are not immune from political pressure. Everybody's efforts in government are just putting off the inevitable. The bubble will finally deflate due to diminishing returns of Fed stimulus. Consider the size of the TARP program in 2007-8 compared to the Fed balance sheet today; at some point, Fed printing will finally fail to achieve any result. Then the game is over. When that happens, I don't know, and neither in my view, does anyone else. My Prediction--the bubble will last until the day the Fed says anything that might suggest they'll raise interest rates. When that happens, the market will instantly drop at least 5%, and the downward trend will continue steeply for several weeks and an overall correction of at least 20%. None of the buy the dip rallies will last, and the market will continue to grind lower. Next week, next month, next year, maybe 3-5 years, who knows? The bubble will pop when the bubble pops. Stay nimble. A similar thing happened on Friday, March 10, 2000, regarding a similar dot-com bubble. The following Monday, the dot-com meltdown began, ultimately wiping out years of huge tech gains. And that all happened with no pandemic, low unemployment, and NO federal budget deficit. It might not be next Monday, but this bubble's getting close to bursting. Taking some profits might be in order. Instead of a “bubble,” let’s call it what it is - inflation due to currency devaluation. It’s been happening ever since idiot Bernanke started zero interest rates and QE, and has been shifted into overdrive now by Powell. That’s why this bubble hasn’t popped because it’s the value of your money that’s being popped. The trick is diversification. Right now, hard assets are the way to go, along with TIPS and high-quality equities that will benefit from the work at home phenomena. We're headed for an inflationary nightmare, and if you own hard assets outright, you're doing very well. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. I don't have to tell you things are bad. Everybody knows things are bad. It's a depression. Everybody's out of work or scared of losing their job. The dollar buys a nickel's worth, banks are going bust, shopkeepers keep a gun under the counter, punks are running wild in the street, and there's nobody anywhere who seems to know what to do, and there's no end to it! At the moment because the stock market has detached from rational connection to the intrinsic value underlying companies and the broader economy; what we have now is an insane asylum being run by the FED crammed full of greedy lunatics betting with a never-ending supply of fake money supplied by the chief psychiatrist while looking at graphs drawn by the orderlies that keep going up. And the nurses who are handing out the meds are telling the greedy you are getting richer every day as they swallow the pills. Soon all the people working for and operating the companies that are listed on the stock exchange will start to realize that they are wasting far too much time trying to make and sell stuff that nobody wants. And they are going broke when they could all just sell everything and shut the companies down and invest in the stock market. Amazon will then realize that there is a big demand for asylums and will convert their distribution warehouses to facilities for the insanely greedy. And Tesla will automate the dispensing of pills and generate a never-ending display of rising graphs to keep the lunatics happy and so that the orderlies and nurses can join the ranks of the greedy lunatics. If this makes sense to you, then you should be able to figure out what is going on. Four times in history, the S&P PE has been higher than it is today. 1) before the I-bubble 1999 after the Fed intervention and first correction. 2) the aftermath of the I-bubble 2000. 3) the 2008 bank and deleveraging disaster. This is the 4th time that S&P PE crossed the above 28. So, let's see if history repeats itself or it rhymes! The difference is that this time we have incurred massive deficits at the fastest pace in history. Thus the bounce back has been extraordinary. But earnings have not. If this is baseball game, the Fed scored on 1st 2nd & 3rd 4th, and 5th seems to be getting ahead of the game on risk markets, now on the virus getting some game going and earnings are not showing up, other than the "forecasted" ones. So far, six weeks of immunity does not cut it for a real game-changer. It took Amazon 3.8 years (1388 days) to reach $1767. Since March (119 days), it has risen an additional $1705 to ATH of $3350. The last four months would be an almost vertical line on that time scale. The same thing can be said of Apple. That is how I know that we are in a bubble. It's not rocket science. I am not saying these companies are not worth this price, but that price is for the year 2024. I personally can't invest in bubbles at this stage. I am just too risk-averse for it. I don't understand how people keep buying. It just seems foolish and against basic common sense. I am sure that it will continue to go higher because where else are you going to put your money with rates so low. Oh yeah, the Fed has got your back just like it has since 2010. They have done an amazing job pumping the markets with QE since then. I wish I could show the charts and how they manipulated it and the results. It is quite an amazing feat. Long gone is a free market based on fundamentals. The only thing now is how high can it go. The moral collapse has already happened. The rest is just a consequence of the moral collapse. This would be a good time to remind people that if you haven't read When Money Dies yet, you need to. Easily the most readable book on hyperinflation in print, with a lot of good lessons to have under your belt for what's coming, because this time is not going to be different. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

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