NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, September 17, 2020
๐60% of Small Businesses are Now Permanently Closed & Unemployment Higher than in All Recessions
๐60% of Small Businesses are Now Permanently Closed & Unemployment Higher than in All Recessions
60% of business closures due to the pandemic are now permanent, according to Yelp.
Factories across America are still bleeding jobs. The American Carnage is continuing.
“Manufacturing across the U.S. is still down 720,000 workers from February despite gaining 29,000 jobs in August, with the pandemic more than wiping out the overall modest gains of 500,000 from Trump’s first three years in office,” Politico reports.
884,000 Americans filed for first-time unemployment last week, which is higher than expected. And still higher than the highest peak in all recessions since initial claims data was recorded. They do not show the total number of people getting unemployment checks right now. The New York Post says something about 61 million ,but doesn't explain if that includes people who went back to work already. The good news is: we will soon run out of people to go on unemployment.
As of last week, there were 29.6 million on unemployment - making real unemployment around 18%.
And that doesn't count able-bodied people who have dropped out of the workforce due to extended unemployment and are no longer counted in the official calculations.
The economy is still in shock from the hit; the real death of this country is only beginning.
And we haven't even begun to feel the economic fallout.
Wait for the Moratorium on rent to end.
And the Moratorium on evictions to end.
The full effects of the financial problems caused by the mishandling of the pandemic won't hit until the bailouts end.
New layoffs every day in almost every sector.
There will be Joblessness through the roof with no end in sight for many Americans.
Riots and looting out of control in 48 major cities.Massive unemployment, cities on fire, virus raging, the economy in the crapper.
And this is just a sample of the melee awaiting America. No jobs, businesses closing, and people losing their homes because that eviction moratorium is ending.
The disconnect between Wall Street and Main Street is getting much wider.And it gets worse when all the debt deferrals finally end.
We are just in between the free fall from the edge and the inevitable splat on the sidewalk. The Chickens are coming home to roost, and the eggs are going splat.
It's not going to be pretty for the majority. Of course, the wealthy won't be affected.
The lockdown only affects the common people, not the very important banksters.
Not only that but with social distancing still a thing, many surviving businesses are operating at reduced capacity, meaning millions of jobs will never return. Don't need as many servers anymore since restaurants still offer only drive-thru and pick up, or half the seating is closed.
This will be the greatest wealth transfer to the top since the Great Depression.
Far worse, when the dust has cleared, the fraud on America tax reform will be a drop in the bucket.
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60% of US small businesses are now permanently closed. Meanwhile, corporations are stronger than they have ever been.
The corporations are getting industry-wide bailouts, and the Fed is buying their debt.
Yelp, on Wednesday, released its latest Economic Impact Report, revealing business closures across the U.S. are increasing as a result of the pandemic’s economic toll. Yelp data shows 60% of business closures due to the pandemic are now permanent.
Permanent closures have reached 97,966, representing 60% of closed businesses that won’t be reopening.
Mission accomplished, or are they shooting for 100% closure.
Many small companies are still getting by through PPP loans. But in a year, I doubt many companies lingering today will be around. Markets disappearing, the commercial real estate market evaporating, the service industry gone, entertainment industry gone.
Many businesses are still being artificially propped up by PPP grants and economic disaster loans, and many of their customers are still there because of their stimulus checks and unemployment benefits. Once this money runs out (if it ever does), many many more will close.
Happens when you've got a house of cards built on monetized debt. Cut spending and let the free market do what it was born to do.
Financial disaster is coming, and the sheep will get fleeced.
Now the bigger businesses will have all of the business. More Good News for Amazon.
It's classic crony-capitalism. Amazon announced they're hiring another 100k worker after big government forcibly closed their small business competitors.
As Wallstreet and the boys bail themselves out and pump & dump and loot trillions. Same as the 2008 pump and dump looting scheme except for bigger agendas with this purposeful overreaction.
My heart goes out to all the business owners. The average person doesn't know how hard it is to operate a business and will most likely not sympathize with them.
All small businesses are bankrupted while we are locked down.
And that is only a part of the bad news for our economy. This morning the Houston Chronicle reports that oil bankruptcies are expected to rise. Also British Petroleum, Royal Dutch Shell, and some smaller companies predict that oil and gas use will peak during the 2020s. Our next president and his economic team must therefore take action to prevent unemployment to rise because small companies, especially in the fracking business, will go bankrupt.
Not only here, but worldwide.
Wait till the people get off the vents they will be so broke
The bailout stimulus ran out after two days, and almost all went to the biggest corporations, oil corporations, and such.
Welcome to Depression 2.0, 2020.
26 trillion in National debt at 3 trillion dollars in annual deficits
forecasted 45 trillion in debt by 2024 and 78 trillion in debt by 2028.
Technically, its neo serfdom. The new economy will be called Happytalism.
The Fed (i.e.,The US treasury) has been buying EVERYTHING since about Sept 2019.
If not for the Fed and Congress providing more than 7 trillion dollars to big corporations, there would be more corporate bankruptcies than ever before.
The Fed has now has the power to make this Depression amplified by the pandemic, far, far worse than the Great Depression of 1930, It’s almost like it was set up in advance.
Jerome Powell is the first Fed chief in two generations who’s not an economist; instead, he’s a lawyer, a multimillionaire private equity banker, and former partner with The Carlyle Group, whose BA was in politics.
And politics is where Powell shines. In a complete abrogation of the rules governing the Fed, he’s created roughly $7 trillion (one-third of the entire nation’s normal annual GDP) out of thin air and used much of that money to buy corporate stock and bonds to keep the stock market afloat.
In its 107-year history, the Fed has never, ever done this.
Some observers consider it illegal.
And the rest of the world is watching, as the dollar drops in value (and gold skyrockets) relative to other currencies, another sign that both inflation and economic disaster are on the horizon.
If the Fed stops supporting the stock and corporate bond markets; the Dow will drop over the following few months to 7,800, roughly where it was in October 2008, the last time they goosed the economy to keep things looking good until an election.
Making things even worse, Powell could announce that he’s actively working to drive up interest rates (a function related to inflation).
That would cause a tsunami of corporate bankruptcies (corporate debt is currently higher than any other time in American history), and a collapse of the housing market happens.
Powell recently suggested he’s considering just such a move, as CNBC reported on August 4 with the headline: “The Fed is expected to make a major commitment to ramping up inflation soon.”
That will be the greatest transfer of wealth out of this country with the push of a button; then, they will have to go after what's left of the middle class to finish it off.
This is a planned takeover of small businesses.
After this is over, the US economy will resemble Russia, where different oligarchs control different segments of business, and there is a barrier to entry any business controlled by them.
No way back, none.
Modern Monetary Theory by any other name still means permanent zero rates, Fed buying bonds and then equities, and lots of pain ahead. In the end, they are just rearranging deck chairs on the Titanic. Once we locked it all down in an already debt-ridden economy, we were toast. Millions living beyond their means, buying crap from China they could not afford. The congress recklessly spending for decades on 24/7 wars and entitlements. And then a failed to drain the swamp President have run up off-the-charts debts. Twenty-seven trillion in debt and counting. NEVER will be paid back. China buys our debt so the U.S. consumers can keep on spending and feeding the CCP for their military expansion. This will cause even more pain going forward.
And if the markets tank, then more unemployed and more hopelessness and anger.
Today 25% of the economy is bankers and financial people getting rich off pushing printed money around without any ACTUAL BUSINESS.
It is a DEATH SPIRAL!
The USA is declining and will not recover. CV-19 deaths will decimate the population while the economy declines, our world leadership role is gone, the internal strife being fed by the politicians and their trolls are fatal. Capitalism is failing; democracy is failing. The Empire is over. The USA peaked and started downhill.
Nothing in the USA is moving in the right direction.
Nothing. And it will continue until the collapse.
Of course, the only thing that made the great recession look as bad as it was is because the stock market crashed. And that created the panic. Right now, the federal reserve is preventing or postponing the panic for a later date. Perhaps later in 2021, or 2022 at the very latest. The deeper in debt we are, the better it will be for their financial takeover. And the final icing on the cake will be the wealth effect turning into the poverty effect after they collapse the world markets. And spending will come to a screeching halt.
Once all stimulus ends, moratoriums on evictions lifted, and 401K early withdrawal penalties are lifted, on top of the increase in permanent layoffs, it will be over.
The solution is economic growth most often seen in a free market environment, rarely in a highly regulated, overtaxed socialist one. And almost never in a bloated, nanny state.
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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