NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, September 13, 2020
👉Housing Bust 2.0 -- Subprime Crisis, Millions of Homeowners with Delinquent Mortgages
👉Housing Bust 2.0 -- Subprime Crisis, Millions of Homeowners with Delinquent Mortgages
50 Million out of work, double-digit unemployment, everything is shut down, cities burning, everybody is angry at everybody, Mortgage delinquencies of at least 90 days rise to the highest level in 10 years, millions of homeowners cannot make the mortgage payments,
30% of homeowners said they had less than $1,000 in savings, and 40% said they would run out of savings in less than a month. Furloughs, layoffs, and decreases in hours are projected to continue for several months as businesses are forced to stay closed. Eventually, borrowers will burn through their savings and default of their mortgages resulting in an increase of foreclosures.
Twenty million renters at risk of eviction.
More than 20 million people, or one in five of the 110 million Americans who live in households that rent, are at risk of eviction by the end of September, according to the COVID-19 Eviction Defense Project (CEDP). While economic stimulus payments and unemployment insurance have allowed tenants to remain in their homes throughout the pandemic, CEDP Co-Founder Zach Neumann says that it is likely to change dramatically, with enhanced unemployment insurance set to expire at the end of the month.
The number of serious mortgage delinquencies rose to a 10-year high in July, according to a report released by financial data firm Black Knight. 32% of households have not yet made their full housing payments for July. The number of homes with mortgage payments more than 90 days past due but not in foreclosure rose by 376,000 in July to a total of 2.25 million, according to Black Knight. Serious mortgage delinquencies are now at the highest level 10 years and have increased by 1.8 million since July 2019.
The overall delinquency rate for mortgages on one-to-four-unit residential properties spiked by nearly 4% in Q2, reaching 8.22% as of June 30, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association’s National Delinquency Survey. The jump in the delinquency rate was the biggest quarterly rise in the history of the survey.
Millions of Americans do not know how they can pay their mortgage.
Tenants cannot pay their rent; landlords cannot pay off their debts.
Everybody is gearing up to go into court, organizing their lawyers to file thousands of lawsuits.
We are looking at months, if not years
of crushing litigation, which is also an expense which people will not be able to carry.It is a tsunami in economic terms.
A housing crisis is imminent and will likely show up next year.
Mom and Pop homeowners make up the bulk of homeownership, and many of them are in deep trouble due to rent moratoriums pushing them toward bankruptcy and foreclosure while the renter population will see 40 million in the streets by next year; if not before as those moratoriums expire.
The default rate is over 8% right now. The only thing saving most borrowers is forbearance plans. What happens when the clock runs out on these borrowers?
They are all going to get wiped out, and the central banks will end owning everything.
All mortgages will be wiped out. So that makes sense that the Fed is taking them over.
When there is a foreclosure crisis because the politicians once again refuse to help individuals in favor of crony capitalism of the Too Big To Fails, the Too Big To Fails will once again be bailed out, and the homes will be sold for pennies on the dollar to the politician's Wall Street buddies.
The banks get to keep the house and all of the money that has been paid for it over the years.
The tens of millions that got their livelihoods destroyed by the pandemic get nothing.
And the banks are the ones who are getting all the free uncle sam digital funny money.
Same time again in 8-10 years. Damn, it feels good to be a bankster.
The Fed owns 1/3 of all mortgages now. SOON TO BE 100%.
The Fed owning a third of mortgage bonds is just the beginning. I think eventually they will own almost all of the residential market. Why? Because then they can control foreclosures. When the forbearance periods expire, someone (the Fed?) will try to stop the tsunami of defaults that are coming. If they own the paper, they can make decisions on how to handle defaults.
We taxpayers will be on the hook again because the Federal bankster Reserve cartel will buy the banksters’ bad real estate debts (whether the banksters are foreigners or US citizens).
So the taxpayers will have to suffer the losses since they will have to bail out the Federal Reserve, whose financiers control the US government. This pandemic is not going anywhere, so progressively, many more persons will default as time passes, and more businesses fail.
We have only seen the tip of a huge iceberg thus far. I pray that I am wrong, but I doubt it. I just wonder if the total bailout cost to the US taxpayers will be over the $29 TRILLION that the 2008-2011 bailouts to the banksters cost.
Slavery began with property taxes.
With property taxes on purely residential properties.
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In America, the government, coupled with a slew of builder and Realtor associations, control the housing narrative. Huge discrepancies exist in the cost of housing in the various markets across America, and while price variations are not uncommon, they should be seen as a reason for caution.
When millions of homeowners cannot make the mortgage payments and have to put these millions of homes on the market – forced sellers – they trigger a sudden surge of supply of homes for sale, and the entire supply-and-demand equation, and thereby the pricing environment, are going to change.
Commercial real estate ruined by Amazon. Malls are going down all over the country. Why go there hoping that they have your size when you can click it now and get it tomorrow at your front door?
The commercial real estate market is going to crater. So many companies have suddenly learned they don't need thousands of square feet of office space.
And heck, they get to dump utility costs onto the employees.
In a contracting economy, do you think that the ruling elite will take a cut in their living standard like the average person, or do you think they will take a greater share of the contracting economic pie in order to maintain their standard of living and net worth?
Of course, they will take a greater share because they are in charge and can control to some extent the outcome of wealth distribution through the management of the economy by the government they control. That is the first issue.
Study 17th century farming techniques because that is what is coming.
We're going to see a surge in homelessness.
People who cannot in any way, shape, or form manage this situation. If you are evicted, you can't cover the cost of a lawyer to protect you against this eviction, especially because the lawyer may not be able to prevail against the kind of legal heavy hitting that banks can afford that large landlords can afford.
We are going to have this spectacle on top of all of the everything else happening to us of that American situation in which we have homeless people sitting on the curb across the street from unoccupied apartments and homes, and that does not become a sustainable situation like so many other things are becoming unsustainable.
The wealth gap keeps increasing with no end in sight, millionaires becoming billionaires, and the middle class becoming poverty level.
Of course, there are delinquencies. When the government tells you you don't have to pay, lots of people don't pay. Duh!
All this stimulus money and forbearance plans only make the situation worse. There are way too many people that will jump on board the gravy train because they can, and most don't need it. Kind of like food banks, if it is free, go grab some.
We're watching the chasm between the haves and the have nots widening. Folks with manageable debt and secure income are taking advantage of low mortgage rates while the folks indebted to the hilt with maxed out credit cards,and installment loans that financed their way of life.Sudden unemployment, and it's instant poverty. These are the folks driving late-model SUVs seen in pics of lines of people waiting at the food pantries. The growing group of have nots will increase in numbers exponentially as the economy worsens even passed the election, which is even more of a reason to get out of the cities.
Get yourself prepared.
In the last decade, debt has soared across the globe. With this in mind, you never want to be caught on the wrong side of a debt default. Lenders will find little help in recovering their money from an expensive legal system that has become overwhelmed by the complexity of modern life.
Legislation that allows easy bankruptcy protection is a gift for anyone wanting to plot a course forward by exploiting those stupid enough to loan them money. This includes landlords and suppliers willing to extend them credit during hard times. To be clear, a default results in a transfer of wealth.
The Fed has snapped up $1 trillion of mortgage bonds, with their magic money. Now they can forgive the debt for the homeowners. Next,the Fed can forgive the student loan debt by printing more magic money. Mo Magic Money.
We are NEVER going back to the pre-COVID days.
This is The End of Civilization we are looking at.
Enjoy this phase of the End of Days while it lasts.
What you are witnessing is the Fed takeover of America. The bankers have waged war on the middle-class entrepreneur who either has a small business or is a small landlord. They are doing everything possible to drive these people out of business while supporting the financing for corporations to step in and take their place.
This is what they have had on their agenda for decades, and now it is coming to be. Once the middle-class business people are wiped out, they will officially declare that the American Dream no longer exists.And capitalism must be replaced by communism and that the only way for people to survive is with government handouts.
The country, once a symbol of modern capitalism is now a joke.
Banks, fatcats, politicians, lawyers. And tons of red tape and propaganda.
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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