NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, September 8, 2020
👉NYC Real Estate Market Crash , Retail Rents Plummet, Shopping Districts Turn into Ghost Towns.
👉NYC Real Estate Market Crash , Retail Rents Plummet, Shopping Districts Turn into Ghost Towns.
New York City Commercial Real Estate Sales Plummet 54% To Lowest On Record.
News has been out for months. New York and other megacities like London, Dubai, Singapore, etc. are emptying up. They were too expensive to survive in, but once the pandemic hit, many more started leaving due to job losses and lack of incomes. As a double whammy, almost no one is coming in.
And no Giuliani is coming to the rescue this time.
This crime and anarchy driving people out of town are what happened in New York City, the 1970s and '80s.
This time it is different. New York is a centralized concept; its entire reason for thriving is the need to be near the beating heart of money. But in the Zoom era, location means zip. The city as a target-like concentric fortress of location as capital and coolness is going the way of the dodo.
Terminal velocity decline.
You'll soon see rampant crime, drug use, corruption, murder, prostitution, kidnapping, hijacking, garbage and graffiti, and feces all over every surface.
New York City commercial real estate deals have hit a brick wall as the pandemic continues to roil the local economy.
According to the Real Estate Board of New York, investment sales dropped by a 32% drop in transaction volume and a 54% plunge in total consideration compared to the first half of 2019, and a record low since the Real Estate Board of New York began reporting the data.
Apartment buildings suffered the biggest drops in prices, at 50% on average. Offices and hotels saw decreases of 28% and 37%, respectively, while prices for retail properties were flat.
And just wait until the derivatives on all that overpriced real estate start (not) getting settled. Take 2008 and add a couple of orders of magnitude.
Keep in mind; some pre-COVID 2020 deals are in that mix. The carnage is actually great.
Next, most properties have mortgages, and many cannot take great hits to the price - without having all the equity wiped out. These buildings are heading towards foreclosure. Foreclosure for larger pieces of real estate is very different than losing your home. The lender has the right to appoint a receiver and essentially take control of the asset. The borrower loses his financial right to the building fairly quickly.
We were top of the market in pricing before COVID hit. And New York was top pricing in the United States, along with the Bay Area. Really expensive real estate, even in the boroughs.
COVID will perhaps have a permanent mark on New York, combined with very ineffectual leadership, the city is in steep decline.
Cuomo and DiBlasio have stuck the knife so deep into New York it may never recover. Demographics mean the next mayor will be worse than DiBlasio, as hard as that is to believe. Detroit is going to look like a paradise compared to New York if something doesn't change soon. Maybe we could sell it to the Chinese or the Saudis and at least get some law and order?
Why does anyone want to live in the largest concrete jungle in the world, where everything is closed, and there's nothing to do. And the risk of turning a corner only to encounter a violent mob, with no police presence to protect you.
Once out of that dump, people will not go back.
You can buy a crap ton of land up in Montana and live nearly dirt cheap with your own runway!
There's a lot of people who live in New York, simply because they live in New York. They don't even consider how much better off they would be somewhere else. Once they leave and experience an instant standard of living boost, they're never coming back.
New York City is no longer fun, no longer safe, and it is dirty.
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Big cities are overrated, and people shouldn’t be living in squabbles. We don’t have a land issue in America. What we have is people who think they need to live in a big city because of the overhype, and that’s why 80% of the population tries to live in 10% of the land near the coasts. Time for these people to get some fresh air.
Who wants to pay millions for an apartment with human feces on the sidewalk? Maybe the grit was interesting when there were culture and shopping around, but it’s not so much anymore. It’s just a third world hole. They got what they bargained for. It’s the height of hypocrisy that they’re abandoning the shot hole they created. It was fine as long as their money insulated them from it, but now that even their gates can’t keep the garbage out and it’s their lives being affected rather than just the middle class, they’re all out of there.
Overpriced, overhyped, and overcrowded, and it's not just New York. It's big cities across the country. Ten grand a month apartment rent. That's probably nowhere near the high end either. It's all just too much. People are moving out of big cities, and the monthly cost is only part of the reason.
New York Is Dying. Manhattan Becomes A Ghost Town & Will Never Be The Same As Before Corona Virus. High taxes, crowded, smelly rat-infested streets, riots, and COVID. I can see why people are bailing en masse.
That apple is rotten to the core, and I'm pretty sure it will ruin the whole barrel.
Wealthy People Are The First To Flee While the Poor & Homeless Remain Behind.
Tens Of Thousands Of Job Cuts Expected In Public Jobs;
Hundreds Of Thousands Jobs Lost In The Private Sector;
Iconic Restaurants, Hotels, Bars, Theaters, Bookstores, and Gyms Closed Permanently.
13,000 Apartments Are Officially Empty.
Governor Cuomo Pleads To The Elites To Come Back By Saying “Come Over, I’ll Cook”;
Relocation Companies Are Very Busy; Crime Is Completely Out Of Control; Largest Retailers & Smaller Ones Are Shutting Forever.
What's gonna be really hilarious is when New York counts it's tax bills in the next few years. All those people are fleeing the city and telecommuting. Soon there won't be anyone left to tax, and the unconstitutional attempts they'll obviously make to tax telecommuters across state lines will be struck down in court, leaving them cash poor and in debt to the ceiling.
The Parade of Horrible is about to begin.
Expect every effected property owners to march on the New York property tax assessor office and demand a reduction in assessed valuation.
New York is in a tailspin, and we can only hope the whirlpool takes mayor down the drain and into the sewer where he belongs.
The mayor of New York City gets credit for all this. Many people are leaving the city and relocating to Las Vegas. Low real estate taxes and zero income tax are good. Crime is well controlled by Metro, which is what the local police are called. Ask OJ Simpson. You commit a crime; you go to prison.
Folks are moving to places like FL, TN, etc. where their tax burden is actually lower.
Detroit went bankrupt when the Unions destroyed the industrial base. People left because of the jobs left. People would live there if there were jobs & the streets got cleaned up. New York is going bankrupt because it cannot provide for itself and taxes the daylights out of anyone that even thinks about the "Big Apple." There is no industrial base. There is no financial base. There are zero reasons for anyone to live in New York except for the Disney World experience, all sales with just enough wow to keep you interested.
Most of the residents today were not born or raised in the city. They have no roots in the city. Keep in mind New York was starting to losing the population before all this happened. The city is also run by left-wing wackjobs. There is no Rudy Giuliani or even Ed Koch, Hugh Carey, to look for leadership. Plus, technology has changed everything. If this was 1986, sure New York would come back, there was no choice, people had to work in the office. But today jobs are moving south - North Carolina, Nashville, Florida, and Texas.
San Francisco is one of the most expensive places to live, New York is second. People are piled up in multifamily households all around San Francisco and New York. Work from Home has made that an impossible situation. You can't work from home with rowdy flatmates. So off into exurbia you go. Don't pay rent, collect bonus unemployment, don't renew the lease, have a downpayment for a house after 4-5 months of you and partner saving hard. Then move out to exurbia at a low cost Midwestern or Southern state. The gain in productivity and the drop in employee costs are driving this. The employer sees 13% productivity gain, 4-7% of costs from real estate disappear, the employee sees no more 2-4 hr commute, $2k to $8k of costs cut. Moving out of high tax high rent city to exurbia with a mortgage cuts housing and tax costs by 1/2 on average; And up to 60% for many. It means an entirely different future.
Hard for folks to willingly commute back to the office when crime proliferating all over New York, including the subway, even during working hours. Homeless encampments all over and crammed in hotels in tony neighborhoods is something right out of escape from New York.
People are also recouping commuting time /costs and enjoying that spent with family. Heck, even sneaking a beer during the day and not having to get dressed in work clothes and groom will be hard to give up. Who wants to go back on the subway with homeless knifing you, and no police presence? Guaranteed that anything less than murder will not have a response.
Zoom and other remote connectivity get companies 80% productivity (maybe more). Who wants to be forced to shoot the s at the office in the name of team building and camaraderie if you can show up to work in your underwear and still get the same work done?
Add to all these closed food spots where the lunchtime crowd would go, and there is zero incentive to get people back into buildings.
Work from home.
Put a fork in them. They’re finished.
You can now work from anywhere. Meaning you can move to Florida or Tennessee (etc.) and save a whole bunch of money in taxes. Probably why in the suburbs in Tennessee, the property values are UP.
COVID is the new normal. Social distancing. Distance learning. Remote Working. We have been freed, and we are not going back. Not going back to commuting. Not sending our students to be indoctrinated in an environment where you are introduced to drugs and social bullying.
New York will become another Detroit within 15 years. City services are terrible. Violence and safety are notably worse. The NYPD is becoming toothless lions because of the administration. Education and all city services are quickly becoming desperate. Once Wall Street becomes totally computerized, and the money is gone. Say goodbye to the greatest city in the World.
The Pandemic is only part of the problem. The other half is soaring crime, rioting & arson. No working-class person wants to put up with angry mobs and soaring taxes. New York already had an Exodus problem prior to the Pandemic. It just speeds it up a great deal. Move over Detroit and Baltimore, New York is going to join you!
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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