NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, September 5, 2020
👉US Debt to GDP Worse than Italy on The Way to Turn Full Japan
👉US Debt to GDP Worse than Italy on The Way to Turn Full Japan
A huge budget deficit, Future massive money printing, QE infinity, sub-zero interest rates, and operation twists guaranteed, QE flowing directly into the stock market, Cities collapsing, Pandemic, debt exploding, massive unemployment, earnings down, riots & looting, societal chaos, death destruction & mayhem in the streets! The economy is already destroyed. Time for a reboot because the Titanic already hit the iceberg. Getting everyone to admit this is another story. Trump has added in 43 months $8 trillion debt. We printed $2 Trillion and gave it away. All that money is bubbling up somewhere. The FED is out printing currency out of oblivion, robbing us of our purchasing power since 1913. Had all of this stimulus gone to the people and infrastructure needs, we might have actually been in the midst of a renaissance. Instead, all those trillions are resting soundly in the clutches of JPM, Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs, Boeing, Lockheed, etc. It was a massive robbery. Over 600 billionaires got around $700 billion. Both parties promised an infrastructure build before the election. We never got it. The first stimulus was hinted at but nothing. It was a robbery. We the people got peanuts. The reason why there is low money velocity is that the treasury prints the money and deposits into the too big to fail banks who simply sit on the money and either buy risk-free, low yield assets like Treasury bills ; or fund high-risk high reward IB activities. Either way, the too big to fail banks are not functioning as actual economic lenders to the main street market that actually causes expansion of the economy. Everybody knows this. It's a Ponzi scheme to keep the elites and bankers liquid and everyone hustling to make a crappy living. The money only goes to rich insider fatcats to cover their gambling losses and top off their tanks so they can buy up everything (they don't already own). Everybody else is broke. By initiating lockdowns, all we are doing is extending the economic damage over the span of years instead of months. They now have a reason for an economic downturn and an excuse for bunches of future bailouts. The Fed's goal is to re-inflate the bubble economy. The bubble is about to pop. A dollar denominated debt bubble. Bubbles are created by over-leveraged debt-based currency. Gold-based currency is the great neutralizer, but, to be effective, it has to circulate, or there is no proper comparison for the utility value. Bubbles ALWAYS pop. It's either that or the world dumps our dollar, and the reserve status disappears, all confidence lost, and the dollar crashes. The US has the world's reserve currency, so as long as the world keeps allowing Fed policies to go unchecked, and they remain confident in the Fed, then this shitshow can last years. However, since they can't normalize rates, nor stop pumping trillions into the market to keep it afloat.The question isn't how long will it last, but how bad will the inevitable collapse now be. Also, recessions happen about every 8-10 years. We started back in 2016, and it's now been propped up. October GDP numbers fall, and businesses are closing at record numbers .So they will have to double down by the first quarter of next year. The 2nd quarter will tell the tale. It will all unravel by 2021, and the confidence in the Fed will be winding down. We have the most to lose when the world abandons the US Dollar as its reserve currency. It’s already happening in international agreements. The dollar is on life-support, and there’s nothing any of us can do about it. Most of our inflation currently has ended up in asset prices, but it will eventually end up in consumer goods. Eventually, this leads to Venezuela hyperinflation. It basically depends on whether we see a big crash followed by serious deflation, followed by inflation later, or whether we just go straight into inflation now, and gold and silver go to the moon, sooner rather than later. Then there's also the manipulation in the precious metals markets, especially silver. Either way, I'm bullish on precious metals long term. Inflation is the stick that drives the free market toward the karat. Because the free market is the only segment of the overall market that can legally and safely monetize gold and bring market gold currency into circulation without a total debt bubble pop, now that we price these modern markets in REAL-TIME. What's required is a nice safe, and sane debt bubble leak, so the process for gold's entrance has to be organic from the bottom-up. This is ingrained in the law. This now gives the stage to the consumer. More reason to load up on gold, silver, farmland, etc... This is how you will be able to hedge against this oncoming tidal wave of worthless fiat currency. Real estates are a double hedge against inflation. The debt is a hedge, and the property itself is a hedge. However, there's overhead. Taxes and maintenance. You've gotta do the math. Buy assets things that hold value. At least as the dollar is rising, these things will increase in value—things of use. The system we have in this country has a life span. When you see bread lines, you know it's pretty much over. Sooner or later, we must end the party and start paying the debt. Two alternatives: a major holder dumps Treasury securities or we hyperinflate. Neither is good! All these are excellent news for stocks. The Market is at ALL-TIME RECORD HIGHS! Feds will have to print a lot more dollars. The market's always up in Zimbabwe! When The dollar craters, that means everything priced in dollars is going to skyrocket, including stocks. That means you are just going to take all your so-called gains and buy yourself a nice new loaf of bread. The stocks will not crash in dollar terms. Yes, the bond market is in a bubble because of inflation, but stocks will crash in terms of gold. I see the Dow-to-Gold ratio getting back to One. See Venezuela and try to learn something. Yes, Venezuelan stocks went up in lots of bolivares. But what could the bolivar buy? Squat.everyone’s a millionaire in Venezuela. Zero-interest rate policy forces investors out of bank accounts and Treasury securities in search of yield. That is one of several factors boosting stock prices when fundamentals are sketchy at best. What some people don't understand is that the stock market could double on all of this money printing, but it is still going down. It goes up in Dollar valuation but down versus Gold at the same time. What happened if the stock market doubled after printing so much excess money, but the price of gold quadrupled or quintupled? It's going to be a safe bet . The Precious Metals will outperform the stock market by far since high inflation is a headwind for the shares, that have to make up with their dividends for extra inflation percentage. The Fed is not in the position to chase inflation by raising interest rates. And how many stocks arent even paying any dividends and are way up. What happens if inflation soars, investors must pull out if they can't pay high enough dividends. Speculative positions like Tesla, in the example, could go into a waterfall decline. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely on your donations to keep this channel functional; as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. The US GDP fell back to 19.5 trillion in the second quarter of 2020. Current government DEBT equals $27 Trillion and GROWING EXPONENTIALLY. So in 2019 - GDP was $21.6 Trillion. Debt to GDP equals 123.6% TODAY. Excluding social security, debt to GDP is 98%. America's debt has soared past 26 trillion dollars and is now expected to leap by several more by the end of the year. This debt surge would have been unimaginable just a year ago, and adding to our woes is the road ahead appears bleak. The clock provided by the US Debt clock website provides a great deal of insight and information. A seldom and underused feature appears on the right side of the top line. It is labeled Debt Clock Time Machine. The real economic growth cannot be positive when the debt-to-GDP rises. Debt-to-GDP is already rising, and they think more debt will improve the economy? Surely not possible. The horse left the gate 15 years ago. No way out of this mess without some rescheduling of US government debt. We were turning a full Japan and made Italy and Greece looked creditworthy. It will be mathematically impossible to control the debt. The US will eventually default; the dollar will be worthless. That's what happens when you operate on a debt-based system. Of course, the official numbers are B.S. they all are. The numbers are all lies; they lie about the GDP and lie about the debt. No telling what the true numbers are. The books are cooked. So let me get this straight. Our GDP BEFORE the crisis was approximately $21 trillion. Our economy has shrunk this year by about +30%, and our debt is at $27 trillion. The math simply does not add up here. 27/21 is around 130%. And when you take into account a 30% reduction of GDP (27/14), the GDP to debt ratio is over 190%. What 107% debt ratio are they talking about? Our national debt has grown to such heights that today every US citizen is born owing $80,000. Meanwhile, our collective mortgage debt stands at $13 trillion, corporate debt is $10 trillion, student debt is more than $1 trillion and consumer debt exceeds $4.2 trillion. At a time when the government, in its wisdom, has just completed a program to pay over 30 million workers to not work, the "false economy" tag sticks like glue. Today, the illusion the economy continues to work its way forward is completely based on "government deficit spending" coupled with the Fed's very easy monetary policy. Much of any perceived growth is because all the money being printed has to go somewhere. Sadly, economic growth does not guarantee a healthy economy. Every dollar created is debt. That's the problem. You can't fight too much debt with more debt. The Fed is getting ready to say, Hold my beer. What prohibits the Fed from in one keystroke creating every dollar necessary to pay off all the debt? The dollar would be crushed, of course, but there would be no debt. They will never pay the debt off. They will just continue to devalue the dollar and see how far the military can maintain dollar dominance. Money is already beginning to lose its meaning. It's really quite simple. Money can be printed, but wealth cannot be. Printing money only serves one purpose. To transfer wealth to the bank cartel. Inflation and debt distress assets, which are then bought on the cheap by the bank cartel with money created out of thin air. And yet you still do not want physical gold or silver in your portfolio! Invest in anything that isn't fiat currency. Who could have predicted the QE was flowing directly into the stock market. It seems the FED had plenty of "tricks," not tools to keep inflation at bay, using an SPV with Blackrock to literally BUY junk bonds and put them on the FEDs balance sheet? They are out of tools and tricks- unless they go FULL Fascism and just own the entire means of production...of which is the lowest since WW2. From here forward, all this money printing will wind up in the hands of the public and, unfortunately, will see the massive inflation. Be careful what you wish for. It will not be pleasant. One thing we know for a fact is that the trajectory of debt over the next few decades is far, far higher and is also why it is virtually assured that the US will not avoid the one trigger event that on previous occasions has EASED an unsustainable US debt burden. And that is war! This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels; I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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