NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, October 29, 2020
👉Europe on The Precipice -- Second Wave, Lockdowns, Economic Collapse and Digital Euro !!
👉Europe on The Precipice -- Second Wave, Lockdowns, Economic Collapse and Digital Euro !!
Europe on The Precipice -- Second Wave, Lockdowns, Economic Collapse and Digital Euro
The European economy is in an unprecedented crisis; it is getting hit hard by a second wave.
That's driving Italy, Germany, Belgium, Ireland, and other European countries to reimpose lockdowns and other restrictions, which is threatening the nascent economic recovery and raising pressure on governments to offer even more financial support to people and businesses. This second wave looks worse than the first.
Spain and France reached the grim milestones of over 1 million cases each on Wednesday while the U.K. lags with just over 792,000 cases.
This second wave of shutdowns would absolutely devastate the European economies.
Europe has negative interest rates, low growth, and significant inflation. The Euro losing purchasing power every day.
Many important European countries are struggling with double-digit unemployment. Fragile export, fragile stability in banks. Negative interests and printing money. On the first attempt to normalize or the first trouble windy market economic condition, the Euro and some countries will start to collapse quickly again. The ECB knows it, but not able to find a way out, afraid of any real move.
Major European banks are insolvent. Half if not more of the latest Eurozone rounds of stimulus is going to these banks just to keep them barely above water.
Come Fall, they will need to bail out southern European banks with trillions of Euros because all those economies have seen massive hits from tourism drop.
Wait until France and Germany need to bail out Spain, Portugal, Italy, and
Greece. Their citizens would never agree to bail out southern European economies.
Europe has been going towards a brick wall since the pandemic started. Sooner or later, it is going to cause re-elections, in which case it is highly possible that the right-wing parties are going to seize power, denying the EU helicopter money. That is going to lead to Italy leaving the union ,and the Euro eventually crashing. The situation is actually way crazier than in The USA. Many factories have or are to close down, and governments are losing power fast.
There are protests all over Europe by people claiming restrictions are unwarranted.
In France, Emmanuel Macron announced the second lockdown.
A new month-long national lockdown will start tomorrow. Bars and restaurants must close until at least the start of December.
And french citizens would need an authorization form to leave their homes. Nearly 3 000 patients are in intensive care units across the country.
The number of French people currently carrying the virus can be estimated at one million: Health Minister Olivier Véran told France Info this morning. "We have tried by all means to avoid the lockdown - said the minister - and the curfew has allowed us to stop the spread of the virus." However, he added defending the lockdown announced yesterday by President Emmanuel Macron, “what is coming down is a European wave. The State - he said - is the guarantor of the French health security and assumes its responsibilities ”.
Meanwhile in Germany, Chancellor Merkel Addressing parliament on Thursday, said that ,winter will be hard - four long, hard months.
Merkel warned intensive care units in the country could be overwhelmed within a few weeks .
Mrs merkel has imposed new restrictions for the whole of november with bars cafes and restaurants ordered to shut doan ; and fans will no longer be allowed at sports events.
This pandemic brings the question of freedom to the fore. Freedom is not every man for himself; it is respectability for oneself, one's family, the workplace. It shows us we are part of a whole, she added. “We are in a dramatic situation that affects us all, without exception.” Angela Merkel said this when she presented yesterday's decisions with the Laender ministers-presidents to the Bundestag. Angela Merkel again stressed that the high number of infections is also reflected in hospitals, where "the number of patients in intensive care has doubled in 10 days". "In a matter of weeks, the health system could be overwhelmed," . The restrictive measures "are appropriate to the situation," she added.
There were Never so many new cases in Germany;over 20 thousand in 24 hours.
The day after Merkel's announcement of a four-week lockdown, Germany registred over 20,000 cases in the last 24 hours, never so many since the start of the pandemic.
In Belgium, the situation is even more dramatic. There are 5,924 patients hospitalized and more than 130 dead in 24 hours for the second consecutive day.
That's a sad new absolute record for hospitalizations. The record registered on the last 9 April during the first wave of the pandemic was surpassed. There are currently 993 people in intensive care, a level that is dangerously approaching the maximum (1,235) reached during the first wave. And for the second consecutive day, the dead exceeded 130.
One hundred thirty-nine yesterday and 132 today. The national average of the positivity rate is 23.6%, but it must be taken into account that the tests are now carried out only on people who have suspicious symptoms.
The Netherlands too has seen a sharp rise in cases since late August-early September.
In the UK, there are 100,000 new infections, but the government resists a second lockdown.
The current daily infections in the UK alone could be 100,000, adding up the undiagnosed cases to those surveyed daily thanks to swabs (24,700 yesterday in the entire United Kingdom), with a tendency to double every nine days in recent weeks. This is indicated by a sample survey conducted by the Imperial College of London on about 85,000 people in collaboration with the Ipsos-Mori polling institute.
While the British Tory government of Boris Johnson - after being among the first in Europe this time to restore local draconian restrictions in the face of the second post-summer wave of the pandemic - however for now continues to resist the pressures of those experts who invoke at this point as inevitable a lockdown or a second national semi-lockdown.
Croatia has registered a record of 2,776 cases in the last 24 hours, a figure that has brought the overall toll of infections since the beginning of the pandemic to 40,999: however, the government is not thinking for now of a tightening lockdown, not even partial. Deaths are also increasing, reaching 511, of which 18 only yesterday. The number of patients with an active infection, just over 14 thousand, and people in home isolation to date almost 22 thousand, also peaked. Above all, hospital admissions are of concern, which in three weeks have gone from just under 300 people to a thousand today.
Switzerland reported another daily record of 9,386 new cases and 31 victims.
Poland, on Thursday, reported record daily infections and deaths. Health officials said there were 20,156 new cases and 301 fatalities. The country has imposed a nationwide red zone lockdown that includes the partial closure of primary schools and restaurants.
New records of infections in Bulgaria too, where 2,760 new cases have been registered in the last 24 hours following 9,946 diagnostic tests carried out. The highest number of infections (1,075) is always registered in the capital Sofia. The total number of cases since the beginning of the pandemic is 45,461. Since yesterday, 36 deaths have been reported, bringing the total number of victims to 1,197.
Spain began its nationwide curfew on 25 October after the government declared a new state of emergency. Spanish people in all regions, with the exception of the Canary Islands, have to stay home between 11 PM and 06 AM.
Lockdowns work in terms of a temporary decrease in rates, but they are inevitably followed by an increase once they are relaxed. Interesting that the only country in Europe which is not seeing an increase in Death rates since July; is the only country in Europe that has never had a lockdown; Sweden!!
It will be interesting to keep an eye on their rates through the winter.
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The European markets are in deep red following news of new lockdowns in FRANCE, ITALY, SPAIN, AND GERMANY.
On Thursday , the pan-European Stoxx 600 was down over 2%.
The European GDPs are in freefall too.
The Eurostat published the first series of data, which confirm the devastating effects of the pandemic.
In the second quarter of this year, GDP fell by 12.1% in the Euro area; minus 11,9% for the overall European Union. These data confirm the fears for a painfully slow recovery. The list is catastrophic. At the top of the disaster is Spain, with a decline in GDP in the second quarter of 18.5%. Followed by Portugal with minus 14.1% ;and France, minus 13.8%. Italy is minus 12.4%, Germany minus 10.1%, minus 10.7% for Austria, minus 12, 2% for Belgium. Lithuania is the best-performing country, with less than 5.1%.
These figures followed a 3.6% decline in the European economy recorded in the first quarter of this year when Europe had not yet fully sunk in the crisis, but the lockdowns had already begun at the end of the period.
The Euro too is losing steam.
The Euro is the one-world government jewel that will fail miserably. It is being pushed up by the world elites, but they can't keep giving it value when as currency, its foundation is so weak. Even without the pandemic, southern European banks were on the brink of bankruptcy; now, they purely exist because of the huge amounts of stimulus by the European Central bank. All southern countries have taken massive hits in tourism, which is a big part of their economies. Everyone will need a bailout this fall.
The Euro is one of the most flawed currencies ever created. There is nothing baking the Euro in terms of conviction, national pride, innovation, powerful military, or faith in the long term viability of the currency in whatever form.
On Friday, October 2, the European Central Bank announced that it would start conducting experiments to decide whether to launch a Digital Euro.
Europeans are increasingly turning to digital in the ways they spend, save and invest. Our role is to secure trust in money. This means making sure the Euro is fit for the digital age. We should be prepared to issue a digital euro, should the need arise, The ECB President Christine Lagarde announced.
When are people going to realize you cannot accomplish the goal of stopping the spread of the virus. The only thing we are accomplishing is destroying the economy along with people's livelihood. A goal must have an endpoint and actually be attainable. Governments are not giving us an endpoint as to when they'll stop forcing businesses closed and requiring masks. And stopping or slowing illnesses is and will never be attainable as everyone gets sick every day!
CV-19 is new, but it's not the only illness in the world.
We’ve had peace for so long , that people will cling to peace and avoid conflict at all costs now, even at the expense of their liberties.
And every day, it seems we get closer to the precipice.
What lies below ain’t pretty.
It's a big play to get that coveted digital ID on everybody so they can flip the crypto switch.
EU has already planned for digital crypto as a way out to lock in the Negative Interest Rates of the system. To understand that, you have to go back and look at what Keynes is and put the current/future time together. It is a NIRP system. It always has been.
Now they need to implement a NIRP system in the present day, and people are going to want to get out of it.
So lock them in with a crypto recording all trades and ensuring the NIRP is paid.
Let's face it, we are just along for the Great Reset ride , And can't do anything about it.
But at least we are prepared: food, ammo, gold, and silver.
Physical gold and silver are the game, especially silver, as the ratio of over 80 to 1 historically will come down by half at times like these.
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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