Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, October 13, 2020
👉Stimulus, or More Stimulus, That is The Question now.
👉Stimulus, or More Stimulus, That is The Question now.
Stimulus, or More Stimulus, That is The Question now.
As Peter Schiff said, the president is now in the process of out-Democrating the Democrats on the stimulus issue. The markets know who butters their bread. There are no more fiscally conservative parties in America. There is only the market that counts, and it needs more free taxpayers money.
The Stimulus talk is doing exactly what it's supposed to do; Keep the market up until November 3rd.
That's the only reason we had stimulus talks. It got us to earnings; now watch the beats roll in, and markets climb another 10%.
Stocks can only go up. Let us borrow our way to prosperity.
What could possibly go wrong?
But the stock market is not the economy. Less than 50% of people have any exposure whatsoever.
The bond market is broken, the stocks are overvalued, currencies are being inflated, no one is paying rent- residential or commercial- and people are out of work. Millions of Americans are unemployed or in danger of being evicted or defaulting on their mortgages.
There is no good news. Trump Says He Now Wants Bigger Stimulus Than Democrats Offering.
More monetary Distortions. The Feral/Fraud [no]Reserve would eventually be doing QE to infinity by way of digitally-issued FIAT DEBT - dumped with abandon - into the global financial system through Wall Street. Big corporations make out like bandits, the people get a few crumbs, and things continue as they are.
And remember the government spending is also included in GDP. Basically, the government can borrow money and spend it and voila GDP.
Americans: Stimulus, please! Stock Market: Stimulus, please! House: Here you go, though it's not much. Senate: One Supreme Court Nominee coming right up!
Trump did not create this bubble, but he made it 100 times worse. This bubble started when the Fed decided it was acceptable to monetize debt through Zero Interest Rates and QE.
Another round of criminally manufactured gains, as the first legalized Ponzi scheme in the world, is manipulated back to the grossest overvaluation in history. And they will keep pillaging until there is nothing left.
Yes, we are in a K Recovery.
K as in KILL to 60% + of American Small Businesses...
K as in KIND to Big Corporations... Amazon, Microsoft, Walmart, Airlines, Shipping, etc., etc., etc.
The big players know we will need to flood the markets with our kids' cash to get us out of this quagmire.
Always fun to watch these headlines run all week: stocks rally on stimulus optimism, then after stimulus talks stall or fail, "stimulus talks fail, stocks continue to rise anyway. Same thing as last year during the supposed trade deal optimism headlines that continued to drive equities higher despite failing in the end. Buy the rumor, don't sell the news (or for any other reason), just look for whatever hopes and dreams you can conjure up and use that as a bull case until it fails, then rinse and repeat. It's almost as if 2020 shined a light on what a big scam the equities market truly is. But but, we're bullish now because we're expecting record deliveries in 2030.
It is not the stimulus amount of money that is the sticking point. It is who gets it. Trump & Mnuchin want to give it to corporations. As part of that looting, they are willing to help some workers (e.g., airlines), but the rest can drop dead.
While Pelosi wants to give it to helps rescue badly mismanaged Democratic states whose ridiculously generous government pension packages were vastly underfunded prior to the pandemic. Those in the well-managed states do not want to fork out their own money to help other badly managed states. That's double taxation.
People and state governments which have suffered huge tax revenue fall and will soon need to start layoffs. But those jobs don't count for the politicians.
Both parties have sold the US citizen down the river, and continue to.
There is only one party left. And that is The Stimulus Party.
We are lagging the Soviets for about 30 years. We'll get there eventually.
Thus why to buy gold. It won’t be caught up in this messed up economy that could go haywire at any moment.
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Disney stock higher because they are gearing towards streaming. Theatres across the world are closed. Amazon stock up because no one goes to malls. But the stocks are overvalued. The price to earnings is too high. If the Fed backed out of the bond market, it would all collapse.
Stimulus off-market tanks.
Rumor of stimulus on market rallies.
After the Stimulus market tanks again.
Buy the rumor sell the fact!
Robinhood investors have proven the so-called markets are nothing but casinos.
When the Federal Reserve and Stimulus are the only reasons for the market to go up, you should realize that Capitalism is dead, and we have a Fiat market like a Fiat currency. Fundamentals don't matter.
Totally rigged, manipulated, controlled so-called world markets regain footing on banana peels and grease. Fundamentals ended back around year 2000. The biggest question should the markets crash to 0.0 before or after the 100% fraudulent World alleged but never possible digital currency is rolled out?
Apple and Amazon, multi-trillion-dollar companies, up 5% on absolutely nothing. This level of volatility is indicative of a highly unhealthy market. We basically have swings based on low volume trading after hours, after which the algos and High-Frequency Tradings kick in to try to front-run the foolish retail investors. We need to take out the trash, not encourage more of this behavior. That means a financial transactions tax, a complete repeal of the corporate tax cut, and we need interest rate normalization.
Seriously, this market is completely grotesque. So many people seem to think that companies like Tesla or Apple, or Amazon running up 5-10% on a regular basis makes perfect sense. Apple is up 110% year-over-year. Tesla is up a dizzying 760%. What could possibly justify these ludicrous climbs? Here in the real world, these are the signs of a market so distorted as to no longer be recognizable. The flimsiest of pretexts (or sometimes none at all) is all that's required for stocks to soar, but they don't drop even in the face of devastatingly bad news. How long can this really go on for? The reckoning is going to be of historic proportions.
Market cap to GPD is currently sitting at 186.9%, the highest ever recorded. It's up from 152% at the beginning of this year. By comparison, during the March lows, that figure dropped to 132%. Anything over 135% is considered significantly overvalued. And before the recent meteoric rise in this measure, the highest ever recorded was 138.4% during the height of the Dotcom Bubble. What I'm trying to say is, this market is hilariously overpriced. US markets are so grotesquely manipulated and overvalued as to no longer be even recognizable anymore. When the reckoning comes, and it will indeed come, it will be historically catastrophic.
And then what it comes crashing down, the fools like Powell, Mnuchin, and the other sycophants will be standing around looking dumb, wondering, "How could this have happened?" It's like the kid who is told by his mom to stop throwing a ball around the kitchen and then looks SHOCKED when he finally hits a glass which shatters on the floor and makes a mess. Smart investors have been warning about the long-term consequences of enabling reckless risk-taking, endless QE, bailouts, ZIRP, all while half the country suffers, and each time, these people are dismissed. When the reckoning comes, the sycophants will be screaming at the wise men, saying, "Why didn't you warn us?!"
What's even worse is that when the reckoning comes, those who get massacred are going to demand a taxpayer-funded bailout.
The mom and pops, and the robinhooders will be crying while these fraudsters move to island countries, where teen whores are plentiful, richer than they ever were.
The currency hyperinflates. The dollar will be turned to dust to keep our corporate overlords happy.
Permanently low-interest rates, debt monetization by the Fed, QE infinity, and corporate bailouts all encourage the worst possible behavior from companies. The airline industry dumped more than $20 billion in stock buybacks in recent years, and we're seriously talking about bailing them out for a second time. Let investors bail them out or let them go belly up. It's not like new companies, or decently managed companies won't be able to spring from their ashes anyway. After 2008 it seems like our leaders decided that a) recessions are to be avoided and fought at all costs, b) corporate socialism is as American as apple pie, and c) that spending the wealth of future generations to perpetuate the terrible behavior of today and prevent Boomers from ever facing the consequences of their actions is apparently how we reach "permanent prosperity." My generation and my children's generation will be buried under more debt than we can ever reasonably payback. The consequences will be dire.
And the masses must be kept in debt. Otherwise, they are free to do stuff the elite do not like.
It’s an exponential debt game.
At this point, isn't it oxymoronic to singly focus on the economy - economy meaning stock market. As corporations took advantage of re-engineering their operations, reducing headcount sans severance pay, extended benefits, early retirement buyouts, Mayors/Governors were pounding in the last nail on the coffin of low-mid income workers who received all those pink slips. The problem is twofold - (1) workers earned more money, not working than when the hind teat of the fatted calf dried up.
(2) their jobs have been eliminated, and fewer jobs are available. The debt can was kicked down the road with moratoriums on evictions/foreclosures/student loan payments. Unless PPP receives more funds and the average American receives some relief, there may be coal on the Thanksgiving and Christmas table except for those upper-income workers unaffected who have been refinancing their mortgage and debt at breakneck speeds. We're at that point where the question on collapse is a matter of how soon?
The moral hazard was breached in the 2000 and 2008 crises that were staged to bail out Wall Street.
The most recent bailouts included an insulting $1,200 instead of $1.2 Million per taxpayer.
Race to the bottom!
It's all going to Crash; we're just voting to see who is Captain of the ship while it is going down.
Actually, We're voting for the stewardess; we never get to see the captain.
The End game won't be pretty, no matter who wins. Fasten your seat belt; it's going to be a rough ride next few years.
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