NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, October 10, 2020
The Fed to Expand its Balance Sheet to more than $10 Trillion, As The Economy, The Markets, and The Americans become Addicted to Stimulus
👉The Fed to Expand its Balance Sheet to more than $10 Trillion, As The Economy, The Markets, and The Americans become Addicted to Stimulus
The Fed to Expand its Balance Sheet to more than $10 Trillion, As The Economy, The Markets, and The Americans become Addicted to Stimulus.
What a gigantic everything bubble freak of nature we have created. It is going to be a massacre soon in everything. Then the suffering and death come for many. Dark times are coming; I can see the blackest of clouds moving in on the horizon.
A vertical stock market in a depression where 800,000+ people file jobless claims every WEEK for seven months straight. Our dystopian overlords have deemed it necessary to create an insulting illusion with a cartoonishly fake stock market that is priced as if there was heaven on Earth.
The Fed unveils plan to expand its balance sheet but still insists it’s Not QE.
"We’re going to go in strong,” declared Fed Chairman Jerome Powell.
The Federal Reserve said Friday that it would begin buying government-backed securities to expand its balance sheet, a move meant to keep an obscure but critical corner of financial markets functioning smoothly.
The Federal Reserve’s balance sheet is exploding, growing by about $3 trillion since mid-March and now totaling more than $7 trillion. It could conceivably exceed $10 trillion by yearend, as the central bank buys corporate bonds, municipal securities and makes loans to medium-sized businesses while purchasing $80 billion of Treasuries and $40 billion of agency mortgage-backed securities (MBS) each month. This would be more than double the peak that the Fed's balance sheet reached after the 2008-09 financial crisis.
By stimulus, all they mean is a couple trillion for the fat cats whose portfolios are already up 35% since the pandemic. Maybe a couple billion to be spread out to the peasants. We thought 2009 was the biggest rip off in history. This farce is ten times bigger, and the poor get poorer.
For Bankers on Wall Street, Politicians, and government employees, it was not bad.
For your hard-working Americans in the private sector, it was disastrous.
For example, Yelp reports that at least 55% of the restaurant listed on Yelp will not re-open....ever. That's nationwide. In some areas like New York City, it's much higher.
So while the Fat Wall Street CEOs and execs got Fat Fed's handouts, many others have gone bankrupt.
I won't even get into the human suffering that occurred because people could not get to their doctor or dentist, etc.
So what’s the bottom line of the Fed’s rapid balance sheet expansion?
A massive redistribution of wealth to the 1% from the 80%.
Welfare for the Wealthy. Preserving Privately held Profits absent any assumed risk while Socializing all losses and denying a safety net to those most severely impacted because you can’t keep the poor and working-class people poor.If you actually gave them money ... and basic moral and economic and tenets of conservatism and deregulated.
The balance sheet is going way, way past 10 Trillion. And we can pray for inflation, but our prayers won't be answered. But this shouldn't surprise us. The financial sector's very survival depends on a deep commitment to the illusion of a recovery. How can we get a recovery in the teeth of a raging pandemic and massive unemployment!
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All of this is crazy. They keep creating problems and then come to the rescue to fix the problem—only to create a bigger problem down the road.
It all sounds so simple and wonderful. How come Japan wasn’t able to pull it off? There is already inflationin the markets. What would you call Amazon at 118 times earnings and 1.5 Trillion market cap!
Microsoft at 32 times earnings! Apple, not that long ago, had a PE of 12. Now 29! I call that inflation.
And what happens to yields and corporate income statements when the Fed funds rate starts rising? Right.
There is no such thing as a free lunch. Sitting on yield is going to leave them with the choice of inflation or a wave of bankruptcies.
And what about inflation from the declining confidence in the US dollar, brought about by virtually unlimited spending? Dollar falls, import prices rise. What about inflation from the possible increase in the velocity of money as asset prices rise, and helicopter checks arrive in bank accounts?
We saw this movie post-2008 crisis. Even with a meager 2.5%, the stock market and President were having fits and cuts followed. Fed used the 2008 crisis (which was due to its own making) to expand its powers and balance sheet. Even with a supposedly strong economy and lowest unemployment, it could not reduce its balance sheet meaningfully. People who have a large amount of cash they don't keep it at home. Actually, they don't keep it as cash, mostly assets. That is where Fed's (unelected and partly owned by big banks) loyalty resided. Keep propping up asset prices no matter what is the effect on the general public. But mind you, Robinhooders have understood that, and they are having fun. Fed's hunger for more power or a larger balance sheet and that too with more market interfering tools will not stop till the US has become like Soviet Union (controlled by Oligarchs) or blown its credibility completely. Both are unfortunate outcomes.
Make no mistake; this criminal Ponzi scheme will crash and burn back to reality. It always does. This time it will be incredibly ugly. Everyone invested will be asking themselves daily, "my god, is this real life?"
A dying circus. Both sad and funny at the same time.
Definitely a tragic comedy.
The prospects for Christmas are very bleak, after which you will see many stores close for good and jobs lost. Main Street is on its way to the Emergency Room in cardiac arrest!
Most people’s wages have stagnated for decades, where you could even say they’re making less than they did years ago. We are seeing massive civil unrest due to such injustices. The playing field is far from level. It’s a well-known fact that a lot of folks in powerful positions got there because of who they know or who they’re related to. Nepotism and cronyism have been around since the dawn of time, but the old guard is being replaced by the ruthless new guys.
We should let the banks handle their own problems;too many zombie companies being run in WallStreet by them. 23% of S&P companies have zero profits. Handing them the stimulus is just suicide. Never Give a drunk a drink.
A small bubble is better than a big bubble. Now the point of no return is here. It's 2008 all over again—only much worse.
Expect the markets to move 2-4% when the stimulus deal is passed.
The stock market makes no accounting for the number of unemployed people, the number of dead, those still waiting on stimulus. Those people are simply not considered part of the economy anymore. The money always just follows the law of marginal utility-- where more money can be made. It breaks all else under its wheel-- including human rights and humane treatment.
We can't spend our way out of this pandemic. No matter how much money they shower people with, a massive chunk of consumers does not have big parties, taking trips, going to concerts, etc. etc. until this virus is a thing of the past. Any extra, they are squirreling away. Layoffs are just ramping up; they usually hit a fever pitch before the end of the year, which is nail #2 in the economic coffin. Nail #3 will be inevitable inflation that the fed says is OK to go over 2%. The only way out is negative interest rates. Donnie says he loves the idea, so we'll see, the Fed doesn't have much other ammo left.
The money printing, as we all know for these benefits, was huge. We didn't gross domestic product; we printed it. The Mises Institute recently reported a 37.56% increase in the money supply, an extraordinary jump historically. Therefore for gold which if you believe the $1650 price in Feb (before the big print) was fair, then gold deserves $1650 x 1.3756 = $2270 an ounce .
Our Challenge is, We are trying to save Capitalism. When the markets de-coupled from the Economy in 2008, they became a ship without a port. There are a number of overvalued Assets. But, the FED can't allow them to fail because it would negatively impact our GDP, which would then increase our "Debt to GDP Ratio." This could cause international investors to become hesitant about buying our "Bonds." This is a very intense situation known only to a few. China is silent for a reason.
And the American public is dumbed down so much they can't balance a checkbook. And it doesn't matter. The checking account is in the red.
Never have I understood why the Airlines need their own Payroll Support Program.!! Think they are entitled to unemployment compensation with its ill-advised and additional oversized funds just like everyone else. The intent seems to be to allow management and employees to have the same paycheck as before the pandemic. Traffic off 70% -- Full pay with nothing to do for so many. Just so wrong. Let's not forget the $ 49 billion squandered on share buybacks. Certainly, better use of the funds today. All for a helping hand but not a guarantee for lifestyle as before, Its a time of sacrifice and hunkering down.
Twenty-five billion to help the rental situation would do more good than sending it to the airlines.
Too bad Mom and pop landlords don't have as strong a lobby group as the airlines.
A lot of landlords can't pay their mortgages because they themselves are leveraged to the hilt in debt. They need to rent money to pay for their properties. Operating a rental property is just like operating any other business. You have income, and you have expenses. Without income, there is not gonna be any cash flow. However, people are more sympathetic when it comes to other businesses (i.e., restaurants, barbershops). Nobody expects restaurant owners to offer free food or bars to give out free drinks. Why do people expect landlords to offer rental units for free? Landlords are small business owners too!
QE is not capitalism at all. It is socialism in action. This is what socialism does over and over and over. Those in power redistribute capital. It is a socialist "planned economy" forced upon us and not free-market capitalism. Capitalism and central banking have nothing to do with each other. This is what happens when you confiscate gold from the people, then renege on your promise to pay gold to foreign countries, then use the paper gold market to try to suppress the price of gold by flooding the market with short futures contracts. The Ponzi scheme collapses.
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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