NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, October 21, 2020
👉This is How Wall Street Become Addicted to Stimulus Money
👉This is How Wall Street Become Addicted to Stimulus Money
The Financial markets have been waiting patiently for a fiscal stimulus.
The market is going up every single day on the promise about the stimulus. Every single day we hear that the stimulus is getting closer, and the market is positive, and then the futures are up, and the cycle repeats every day.
Traders and investment firms are trading on the momentum. They are trading on the speculation that the federal government will have a $1 trillion+ economic bailout package soon. Earnings have been replaced by fiscal stimulus. An entire global stock market with a foundation of DEBT!
Give this crack-addicted economy yet another shot before it woes into terrible, painful withdrawals!
That is the main reason I think we're still hitting record highs, with the economy in shambles. A large portion of that $1 trillion+ will also go to the banks because the near 0 interest rates are earning very little through non-junk bonds and treasuries.
Millions of Americans out of work or struggling to pay the rent or buy food are also desperately waiting for a stimulus.
A stimulus package isn't going to save anybody, let alone the economy. It's just a bandaid for the sheeple. WALLSTREET WILL LOVE MORE STIMULUS. MORE FOR THE HAVES AND LESS FOR THE HAVE NOTS.They will stimulate their egos with pats on the back for a job well done!
When the market loses the plot, cash-out, only an idiot thinks you can create prosperity out of thin air for much longer than it takes to hold an election. This baby is going to blow like nothing was ever seen before. It will either be a total deflationary collapse or hyperinflation like Weimar, Zimbabwe, or Venezuela. No way out of it now!!!
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If you haven't figured out that the FED and US Treasury are the current market drivers and are being used to manipulate the market and delay a major economic downturn or recession until after the election - you aren't a credible investor. After November the 3rd, there are no further political gains to continue the FED stock buying and debt printing in the economy - and fundamental economics will once again descend on this house of cards market. Voters by large, see the stock market as the primary economic indicator and ignore economic fundamentals - until their loans are foreclosed on. This basic public economic ignorance is a sad reality that politicians have to deal with - even if it means they gain politically but ultimately cause or contribute to a major economic catastrophe. Declining GDP and increasing debt will continue until a tipping point is reached in US economic credibility - and the inevitable catastrophe of a US economic collapse happens.
As the monetary and printing theory favors specific kinds of either critical finite resources and or fungible assets with low convertibility costs.
The FED has been printing like mad for the past four years, economically coasting on recovery and to keep the Wall Street ship afloat. Sooner or later, basic economics - both fiscal and physical will force fundamental economic reality on both political parties and the US consumer economy.
It seems logical that all wealth centers - personal and private - have a vested interest in preventing an economic slowdown or stagnation and especially a collapse. The differences today/right now in the year before the elections are only degrees of aggressiveness in increasing the artificially created money supply. There are vested interests to maintain and preserve wealth standard condition wanting "free money" - but now on top and plus - the political motivation to provide at least the appearance of securing and preserving that wealth via money creation. Like morphine for pain, free money is as addictive - is as dangerous - but with more fatal withdrawal symptoms. Wall Street is not only addicted to free money but daily inebriated and euphoric with it. In my opinion, there are no fundamental economic solutions (real) fiscally or physically possible for the US - without major shocks to the consumer economy and wealth centers. Now it's just a matter of time.
Another stimulus happening soon would be more convincing if so many people didn't throw the last one all into the bank or stock market. The stimulus was meant to stimulate the economy. And pumping the stock market only to wait for it to fall back down isn't exactly stimulating the economy. What stimulates the economy is reopening businesses, and a fiscal stimulus doesn't do that.
Also, money in the bank SHOULD stimulate the economy, as it would, in theory, give more money to banks to lend to people and businesses that need it. The problem is that the Fed has basically displaced all private lending, so there is no need for banks to woo depositors.
The Fed's Money Printing is not a Stimulus. It is fiat money printing. AKA-how to devaluate the dollar quickly.
Devalue, depreciate, debase, even eventually completely disable the American Dollar. You can see the drop relative to other currencies daily in the US Dollar Index DXY Chart.
This is the change against a basket of currencies, which could all be dropping as well, depending on the policies of their corresponding central banks. So the buying power of the American Dollar could actually be dropping even faster than this index indicates. Even on days when the Dollar is gaining relative to the other currencies, it could still be dropping in purchasing power terms.
There is an important distinction between fiscal and monetary stimulus. By stimulating with fiscal policy, we create more demand for goods and services that would not be there otherwise. It also helps people that have been impacted and hurt by the pandemic through no fault of their own. There are a number of parents (primarily women) that had to drop out of the workforce to help kids learn remotely. Others, like food servers and those that work in hospitality, are out of work. They need help, and that additional income creates demand. The Fed is pumping money into the economy and helping to keep credit flowing, but it is not as targeted as fiscal stimulus. It artificially drives the market, helping only those that are invested. For the most part, it isn't doing much for the unemployed.
Fed Money Printing would be QE, aka monetary stimulus if it did not get subsequently distributed by the Federal Government directly to the American public. In other words, if the government just spent that money eventually in going about its own business. The flow of money is time-wise backward since the Federal Government’s Treasury department gets the money first from the buyers of their bonds. Then many of those buyers sell their bond holdings to the Fed for money printed from thin air. (The Fed money printing that is used to buy Treasuries mostly flows in this manner to the Federal Government for the debt that government issues via those bonds.) But when the Federal Government sends money directly to recipients in public, such money is considered as being a fiscal stimulus. The money is still ultimately created by the Fed, but the spenders are different. In this case, the spenders are the desperate folks in the public who often have no other means to pay rent and buy food.
But The Fed and this administration have made it crystal clear only money to prop up the stock market. Jerome Powell is no Paul Volker by any stretch of the imagination. Jerome Powell is not doing stimulus; he is the operator of a printing press and may as well be throwing dollars out of a window. Putting money into the hands of the working class to purchase will stimulate the economy, but we only did that for the first few months of the pandemic. The US has ten more weeks to go until January 1, 2021. I fully expect there will be another 10 to 11 million more layoffs, if not more. A fiscal stimulus is needed, but there hasn't been near enough of that.
The stimulus is akin to starting fluid for an engine. It may help, but it will NOT cure other problems inhibiting the engine from running. Big government bailing folks and business is NOT the answer, especially if that conditioning encourages the wrong long term behaviors. The business has been piling on debt like leverage is the answer to their problems, and consumers have been living to paycheck to paycheck as their financial condition will ONLY improve!!
Paper is not money. Gold is Money. Fiat currency must be curtailed, and real money returned. Capitalism can not work in a corrupt monetary environment. The economy will not sort itself out because it's heavily manipulated.
Although the Fed insists otherwise, the central bank really has no tools left except money creation, and the Fed will keep printing money in a panicky attempt to prevent a financial collapse.
As politicians and economists in Washington deem what is appropriate for the American people, it will be the very individual for whom these policies were intended who will have to eventually pay for these policies, whether through inflation or taxation. Unfortunately for the American citizen, when the plans of Washington are successful, it is the politicians and their special interests who reap the rewards.
The smoke and mirrors of Keynesian economics were able to delay the inevitable collapse, but only for so long. At some point, the bill comes due.
Milton Friedman once said, "If something can't go on forever, it won't."
Every time they print more money, the money you get & already have gets worth less.
Prepare to use a wheelbarrow as your wallet.
The money created sooner or later has to be made up for in productivity, or the money supply itself eventually becomes so dilute as to have no value. That is what inflation is. In this sense, the money created is "borrowed" from futurity.
The dollar will collapse before digital currency can be rolled out.
Then, we will have no alternative but to use the CBDCs. Their whole plan is to replace the dollar, and other fiats, with CBDCs, so why wouldn't they collapse the dollar?
It's no secret that central bank policies around the world have become more desperate over the last decade in an effort to stimulate their economies. It'll be interesting to see what comes of this Quantitative Easing experiment, but I think the chickens will come home to roost a lot sooner than 2029. This could come in the form of a serious permanent jobs disaster and weakening economy sometime early next year. There may be some great picks out there, but I don't think the broad market is in for a solid better part of a decade without a serious bear market.
First, the Fed stole our gold, then our silver with larceny by trick, and substituted it with their worthless paper and tin/copper crap.
Now, they are taking the anonymity of our paper currency and making us work for their IOU electrons - so they can track and tax our private purchases.
Seize, Audit, and end the Fed.
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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