Roubini: Italy's Days in Eurozone May Be Numbered

Nouriel Roubini : "Given that it is too-big-to-fail but also too-big-to-save, this could lead to a forced restructuring of its public debt,"

Read more on Newsmax.com: Roubini: Italy's Days in Eurozone May Be Numbered Important: Do You Support Pres. Obama's Re-Election? Vote Here Now! "That would partially address its 'stock' problem of large and unsustainable debt but it would not resolve its 'flow' problem, a large current account deficit, lack of external competitiveness and a worsening plunge in gross domestic product and economic activity."

"To resolve the latter, Italy may, like other periphery countries, need to exit the monetary union and go back to a national currency, thus triggering an effective break-up of the eurozone."

"Even a restructuring of the debt – that will cause significant damage and losses to creditors in Italy and abroad – will not restore growth and competitiveness...if you cannot devalue, or grow, or deflate to a real depreciation, the only option left will end up being to give up on the euro and to go back to the lira and other national currencies."

- Roubini writes in the Financial Times . - via Newsmax

Roubini : The worst case scenario for Italy is inevitable.

"Italy primary balance is barely >0 while a 5% of GDP surplus needed just to prevent debt/GDP ratio to rise above 120%. Clearly unsustainable" says Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini via Twitter : "Italy is TBTF Too Big to Fail but it is also TBTS Too Big To Save , A Coercive debt restructuring , Maturity extension with Par Bond will become unavoidable soon " he added "With real rates at 4% & GDP growth at 0% (better than current data) Italy still needs a 5% of GDP primary surplus to stabilize debt at 120% " "As in Greece coercive "voluntary" debt restructuring (Par/Discount) in Italy would NOT trigger CDS based on ISDA definition of credit event" He explained

Roubini : Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley Face MF Global-Type Threat

"MF Global Lesson:fragility of I-banks same as be4: huge maturity mismatch as most financing is overnite repo; so risk of run is always there"

"Goldman, Others Face MF Global-Type Threat: Roubini" Nouriel Roubini wrote on twitter today , Roubini explains that "What happened to MF Global could happen to Jefferies, Barclays, Goldman Sachs & Morgan Stanley.Leverage & maturity mismatch can lead to runs,", Roubini tweeted saying that several huge financial institutions could collapse in the blink of an eye like MF Global. The Collapse may, include: Goldman Sachs Morgan Stanley Jefferies Barclays

If the Eurozone blows up, it all gets worse

There is a “significant risk of a Eurozone breakup,” sources say Roubini told a handful of select party guests recently, reports the Business Insider. Adds the economist, if the Eurozone goes under, “everything around the world goes sour.” - via RT.com ....Read More >>

Roubini very bearish on Europe

"Our view is very bearish." Europe is a slow motion train wreck and there's a "significant risk of a Eurozone breakup." This doesn't mean Greece and Portugal leaving, it means Spain and Italy ultimately leaving as well, which would mean the whole thing is toast.- Nouriel Roubini told his Clients at a party he held yesterday in his apartment - via www.businessinsider.com

Roubini on Charlie Rose - China currency debate - 10/13/11)

Nouriel Roubini says that the unemployment problems of America are not to be blamed on the trade or on China  : ...the unemployment rate is nine percent including discouraged workers and partially employed workers 16.5 percent including people in jail is 20 percent among young and minorities it is close to thirty percent , half of the unemployed are long term unemployed , but a very little fraction of this problem has to do with China and exchange rate it has to do with the policy that led to the house boom and the housing bust about the fact that we are not invested in productivity and long term economic growth , so blame it on the Chinese does not make sense , of course in a situation where you have high unemployment rates you have social and political malaise people blame globalization people blame trade people blame China but the fundamental problems of the US are much deeper much structured

Europe should devalue the Euro & Slash interest rates to boost exports

Nouriel Roubini : "A recession that is severe in advanced economies, the collateral damage even on emerging markets could be significant." Roubini recommended devaluing the euro to stimulate exports from the eurozone and slashing interest rates. "If they were serious about restoring growth in the short-term, they would cut rates down to zero," Roubini said. - via ET NOW

The Eurozopne eventual Breakup shock could be larger than the fall of Lehman in 2008

"In my view, there's a significant probability, more than 50 per cent, that over the next 12 months there's going to be another recession in most advanced economies," "Whether you call it a double dip recession, a continuation of the first recession or a second recession doesn't matter, it's semantic."

"In a situation where it becomes disorderly, with defaults by a number of countries and a resulting exit of a number of states from the eurozone and its eventual break-up, the shock that could occur ... could be as large, if not larger, than the fall of Lehman in 2008,"

Nouriel Roubini told a Commonwealth business forum in Perth. - in ET NOW

Nouriel Roubini : World recession looms

Nouriel Roubini : "In my view, there's a significant probability, more than 50 per cent, that over the next 12 months there's going to be another recession in most advanced economies," Roubini told a Commonwealth business forum in Perth. - in ET Now

Roubini : The Markets will Turn Skeptical On Euro Deal

"In the next few weeks there will be questions about the viability of what has been decided and increasingly the markets are going to become skeptical this is a solution to the euro zone," .
"That's not enough and makes those bonds very risky," he said. Roubini noted that a debt write-down of "50% has been imposed on Greek creditors, so why would you want to take an exposure on Italy and Spain?"
"The recession is already ongoing in the euro zone," "People are going to say it's good financial engineering, but unless you have economic growth there is going to be a train wreck." Roubini said in an interview in Paris via the Wall Street journal

Double-dip slump in major economies

"There's a significant probability there's going to be another recession in most advanced economies ," Nouriel Roubini told business leaders gathered here for the Commonwealth of Nations conference. He singled out the euro zone, the U.K. and the U.S. as prime targets for economic contraction. - in MarketWatch

Nouriel Roubini video Interview - The CHOGM show

The markets have gone up recently because there is a hope that the Europeans will come with a plan that is credible says Nouriel Roubini in this interview from Perth Australia speaking to CHOGM Forum any financial engineering in Europe is just not sustainable , the economic data coming from Europe are just horrible there is no growth to be expected Spain and Italy are close behind Greece Roubini explains even the data from the United States is mixed , GDP growth in the US might come out 2.5 percent the US economy is much weaker than people make it , he added ....there is some excesses in the housing market in Australia

Roubini: Hard landing coming in China

Nouriel Roubini : "If China has a hard landing, for a period of time that's going to hurt growth and reduce commodity prices until China recovers and until the rest of the world recovers," - in www.theaustralian.com.au

Roubini : 50% Chance of Recession in U.S., Eurozone, U.K.

Nouriel Roubini : There is a 50 percent chance of a recession in the U.S., the U.K. and eurozone economies in the next 12 months
Europe’s “financial engineering” is insufficient to end its sovereign-debt crisis,
Contagion from the debt crisis has spread to some French and Belgian banks,
Unfortunately, in my view there is a risk, at least a 50 percent probability, that in the U.S., in the eurozone, in the United Kingdom, and in most advanced economies, the future in the next 12 months might suggest a recession, a downturn, rather than reacceleration of growth, Roubini said in a speech in Jakarta today - in www.businessweek.com

Roubini : Soft Landing in China Is a Mission Impossible

China’s efforts to prop up economic growth won’t help it escape the hard landing that will probably arrive in 2013 or 2014,
The prospect of a soft landing in China is a “mission impossible,”
Over-investment “always” leads to a hard landing Nouriel Roubini said at a seminar in Helsinki today organized by Evli Bank Oyj - in Bloomberg

Nassim Taleb : The banks should be treated as Utilities

Nassim Taleb, author of The Black Swan was interviwed by Bloomberg TV about the #OccupyWallStreet movement and what is his take on the protests that are sweeping not only New York but the world , My fear is that protest will turn into a class struggle he said and that we should apply Hammurabi's Code to wall street and the banking industry this is the best risk management rule ever , it is a deterrent that the banks should be treated as Utilities , the banks are in the business of hiding risk and when things collapse you and I pay the bill he added and that bankers should not be compensated more than civil servants

We are also running out of policy bullets

Nouriel Roubini : our assessment is that there is more than a fifty percent probability of a double dip recession (in the US ) certain to become a severe recession if the Eurozone blows up , but we think that the tail risks are not going away because of thata there is an option value of waiting , firms doing less job hiring consumers more cautious investors more cautious we see a negative feedback between the real economy disappointing equity markets correction financial condition tightening and negative feedback to the real economy the data is mixed the eurozone is in trouble the consumers are just propped by transfers and taxes but that's going to go away , stocks prices are falling home prices are still falling credit spreads are widening so it is tight for the US consumer , we have this redistribution of income from labor to capital from households to corporates from wages to profits that redistribution of capital means less aggregate demand when there is excess of supply and finally we are running out of policy bullets there will be a fiscal drag monetary policy in QEs becoming increasingly impotent as the credit channels not working we cannot backstop anymore , the banks are now the protestors are saying enough enough of doing that and we need a weaker dollar to grow our exports if domestic demand is weak through deliveraging but the Europeans need a weak Euro the Japanese need a weak Yen..- in Reuters 18 Oct 2011

. Click here to watch the Video Interview >>>>>>>

Roubini : Much Weaker Euro, Rate Cuts Needed To Solve Euro Crisis

To solve the euro-zone debt crisis, the euro needs to trade below parity against the dollar, the European Central Bank needs to cut interest rates and member states need to forge a fiscal unity, U.S. economist Nouriel Roubini said at a conference in London. - in the wall street journal

RGE not for Sale

"Recent press reports have suggested that RGE is experiencing difficult financial conditions and is being sold. These reports are wrong. RGE is strong, stable and independent," "well capitalized" and remained "of high value to its clients." RGE said in a note sent to clients via CNBC

Nouriel Roubini on the The Common Good Conference

Nouriel Roubini on the US & Global Economy : The Common Good hosts Professor/ Economist Nouriel Roubini with co-host Charles Meyers and Paul Beirne . The Com­mon Good hosted “Dr. Doom” Pro­fes­sor Nouriel Roubini on Wednes­day, Octo­ber 12th as he dis­cusses the com­ing chal­lenges of the US & Global Econ­omy as part of our Econ­omy and Busi­ness Series.

Roubini concerned about the contagion spreading to the rest of the Eurozone

Oct. 13 - $1.2 trillion plan to restart the U.S. economic engine With key deadlines approaching, Gina Sanchez of RGE sits down with Nouriel Roubini, Mark Zandi and Lincoln Ellis to discuss the future of the Eurozone.Roubini is concerned about the contagion spreading to the rest of the Eurozone

Roubini Global Economics is for Sale ?

CNBC announced today that RGE Roubini Global Economics is for Sale , " Roubini Global Economics The economics research firm that was founded by Nouriel Roubini is for sale. it has grown quickly since the founding by Mr. Roubini who is its chairman and known for predicting much of the financial gloom that befell us in the '07 and '08 period. the firm has 85 employees, and it is still losing money according to people who have seen the offering book for the sale. the firm is project to have revenues of $14 billion and lose about $2 million. it projects about 8% revenue growth next year " said CNBC

Roubini : EU-Wide TARP Program is the Answer

Professor Nouriel Roubini was interviewed this morning by CNBC Asia about his solutions for the global financial crisis and especially regarding the debt crisis in Europe , , The EU should do a European-wide TARP program right now to resolve the debt crisis, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics. He explains why.

Roubini : Double dip recession will happen

The world's advanced economies are headed for a second recession, regardless of whether there is further chaos in Europe,
The question is not whether or if there is going to be a double dip, but whether it's going to be mild or severe with another financial crisis,". "The answer on that depends on the euro zone."

"You need an EFSF that is four times as large as the 440 (billion euros) to make sure that a bad equilibrium, and a self-fulfilling run on Italy and Spain doesn't occur," "There's no plan for that, because politically even the first EFSF has not yet been approved, let alone to triple it or quadruple it." Famed economist Nouriel Roubini chairman of RGB Roubini Global Economics,told CNBC on Tuesday on the sidelines of the World Knowledge Forum in Seoul - in CNBC

the Recapitalization of eurozone banks, would be needed to limit collateral damage and contagion

Nouriel Roubini : Leaving the common currency would, of course, threaten collateral damage for the exiting country and raise the risk of contagion for other weak eurozone members. The balance-sheet effects on euro debts caused by the depreciation of the new national currency would thus have to be handled through an orderly and negotiated conversion of euro liabilities into the new national currencies. Appropriate use of official resources, including for recapitalization of eurozone banks, would be needed to limit collateral damage and contagion.

Roubini : Europe Needs 2 Trillion Euro Bazooka

Nouriel Roubini : I am very worried about the situation in the periphery of the Euro Zone , they have a recession coming , there is a fiscal crisis a banking crisis a liquidity crisis a sovereign debt crisis and also a competitiveness crisis and now the contagion is going to spread from Greece to Ireland Portugal to Italy to Spain to their banks their governments to the french banks Belgium banks to the core of the Euro zone and it is a very unstable situation ...... I’m very concerned of things getting out of control,” “You need a huge bazooka of at least 2 trillion euros, but you can’t wait three months. You have to do it in the next few weeks.” Roubini said in an interview at Bloomberg’s Dubai office yesterday.

Nouriel Roubini : Trichet made many policy mistakes

Nouriel Roubini interviewed by Reuters Oct. 3 - about Jean-Claude Trichet As he comes towards the end of his eight years at the head of the ECB, global economist Dr Doom Nouriel Roubini rates his tenure.: I would give him 7 , he did better than average but there were many policy mistakes , one was to increase policy rates too soon in 2008 when the economy was going through a recession and the financial crisis was becoming worse and the second mistake was to make the same mistake this year by again raising policy rates and leading to even more financial crisis and insolvency and currency crisis in the periphery of the Euro Zone '

Roubini : US and UK already in Recession

“The way I see the global economy, I think we’re entering into a recession again in most advanced economies,” . “I think we’re already into one in the US based on the hard and soft data - same with most of the eurozone, same with the UK.” Nouriel Roubini said in a panel discussion at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York , “At this point, the issue is not whether there is going to be a recession or a double-dip but whether it’s going to be relatively mild or whether it’s going to be a severe recession and a global financial crisis,” Roubini added “The answer to that question depends on what’s going to happen in the eurozone and whether they can get their act together.” - in http://www.telegraph.co.uk

Nouriel Roubini - The 10 actions that should be taken to revive economic growth in Europe

Europe must move forward. We must revive economic growth, the EU's global competitiveness, sustainable development of all European countries. The challenges facing the Old Continent require immediate response.



Nouriel Roubini is Chairman and co-founder of Global Economics, a professor of economics at Stern School of Business at the University of New York. As the first alert on the impending crisis before 2008.

Inflation will soon be the last problem that central banks will fear

Nouriel Roubini : while monetary policy has limited impact when the problems are excessive debt and insolvency rather than illiquidity, credit easing, rather than just quantitative easing, can be helpful. The European Central Bank should reverse its mistaken decision to hike interest rates. More monetary and credit easing is also required for the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of Japan, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank. Inflation will soon be the last problem that central banks will fear, as renewed slack in goods, labor, real estate, and commodity markets feeds disinflationary pressures.

The reasons for advanced economies’ high unemployment and anemic growth are structural

Nouruiel Roubini : The reasons for advanced economies’ high unemployment and anemic growth are structural, including the rise of competitive emerging markets. The appropriate response to such massive changes is not protectionism. Instead, the advanced economies need a medium-term plan to restore competitiveness and jobs via massive new investments in high-quality education, job training and human-capital improvements, infrastructure, and alternative/renewable energy. Only such a program can provide workers in advanced economies with the tools needed to compete globally.

The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II

Nouriel Roubini : The risks ahead are not just of a mild double-dip recession, but of a severe contraction that could turn into Great Depression II, especially if the eurozone crisis becomes disorderly and leads to a global financial meltdown. Wrong-headed policies during the first Great Depression led to trade and currency wars, disorderly debt defaults, deflation, rising income and wealth inequality, poverty, desperation, and social and political instability that eventually led to the rise of authoritarian regimes and World War II. The best way to avoid the risk of repeating such a sequence is bold and aggressive global policy action now. - in a recent article

Emerging economies have more ammunition available and should ease their monetary and fiscal policies.

Nouriel Roubini : Emerging-market economies have more policy tools left than advanced economies do, and they should ease monetary and fiscal policy. The International Monetary Fund and the World Bank can serve as lender of last resort to emerging markets at risk of losing market access, conditional on appropriate policy reforms. And countries, like China, that rely excessively on net exports for growth should accelerate reforms, including more rapid currency appreciation, in order to boost domestic demand and consumption. - in a recent article

The European Union should strengthen its banks with public money

The European Union should strengthen its banks with public money, and spread money to small and mid-size businesses.

The European Central Bank should reverse its decision to boost interest rates

The European Central Bank should reverse its "mistaken decision" to boost interest rates, while others such as the Federal Reserve, Bank of Japan, Bank of England and Swiss National Bank do more. (This was written before the Fed's latest action.)