Roubini : The Greek Euro tragedy is reaching its final act

Nouriel Roubini : THE Greek euro tragedy is reaching its final act: it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the euro zone. Postponing the exit until after next month’s election with a new government committed to a variant of the same failed policies will not restore growth and competitiveness. Greece is stuck in a vicious cycle of insolvency, lost competitiveness, external deficits and ever-deepening depression. The only way to stop it is to begin an orderly default and exit, co-ordinated and financed by the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Union, and the International Monetary Fund (the Troika), that minimises collateral damage to Greece and the rest of the euro zone. - in businessday.co.za

Roubini : The Vatican is The Biggest legal Tax Evader in Italy

Nouriel Roubini : Time to start taxing Vatican assets and income given that the church is biggest legal tax evader in Italy and biggest real estate owner says Roubini in a recent twitter message from Rome

Where does Roubini invest his Money in This Market ?

Nouriel Roubini : We see it being flat for the rest of the year, like it was flat last year, given all these uncertainties and given there is a fiscal cliff and there is more gridlock. I don't expect the stock market to tank this year. But I don't see, from current levels, much upside. The emerging markets are a long-term story. Their growth rate in the long run is 6%, while in advanced economies (including the U.S.) is 2%, 2.5%. So if you are willing to invest for the long run, yes on emerging markets. But if you're thinking about what's going to happen in the next few months, no country is an island. - in USA Today

Roubini : There is huge exposure of U.S. companies to Europe

Nouriel Roubini : First, there is huge exposure of U.S. companies to Europe because they have factories and businesses there. If Europe goes into recession, the profits of these multinationals are cut. About half of all the profits of U.S. S&P 500 firms are coming from their foreign operations, many of them in Europe. Second, whenever there is risk of disorderly financial conditions in Europe, there is not just a sharp correction of European stock markets, but also of U.S. markets. When Greece was first in trouble in the spring of 2010, you had a 20% correction in the European stock market, and a similar correction in the U.S., in Asia, in emerging markets. Same thing last year between August and October. So financial contagion becomes instantaneous because of sentiment, exposure of U.S. financial institutions to European ones, and because of these links between the U.S. businesses and their own activities in Europe. No country is an island. - in USA Today

What will happen to Greece?

Nouriel Roubini : The risk is that you'll have Greece exiting the eurozone with all the collateral damage. Also the risk is that many other countries will find it difficult to do austerity. There is a significant sociopolitical and policy uncertainty in Europe that affects the global markets. So, to me, the eurozone looks like a slow motion train wreck. Slow motion is not going to collapse overnight. But Greece is not going to be the only country that's going to restructure. Greece by next year might exit the eurozone. If one or two of the smaller countries restructure their debt and exit, like Portugal or Cyprus, the eurozone survives. But if the contagion spreads through Italy and Spain, the third- and fourth-largest economies, it could lead to a breakup of the eurozone three or four years down the road. - in USA Today

Roubini : The austerity fatigue is spreading to France and the Netherlands

Nouriel Roubini : You have on one side austerity fatigue, because these countries are finding that austerity makes the recession worse. The austerity fatigue is spreading to France and the Netherlands. On the other side, you have bailout fatigue in places like Germany or Finland or Austria. These Germans tell me, 'These Greeks have a big fat Greek wedding not for a weekend, but for the last 20 years. We give them one bailout, then a second bailout. We cut their foreign debt by 75% in the debt restructuring, and they still don't want to do any fiscal austerity and structural reforms.' So they say, 'Enough is enough, let's pull the plug.' " - in USA Today

Roubini Economic Outlook for Europe

Nouriel Roubini : The European recession is getting worse. There's fiscal austerity that, in the short run, makes the recession worse. Second, the value of the euro is too strong for the countries on the periphery that have lost competitiveness. Third, you have a credit crunch because the periphery banks don't have enough capital, and they will be forced to cut credit. Fourth, you have the effects of high oil prices, and Europe depends 100% on oil imports. And now politics in Europe are an issue, as we saw from the Greek elections, French elections, the Italian elections and German elections, and the collapse of the government in the Netherlands. - in USAToday

Roubini : America Faces a Fiscal Cliff

Nouriel Roubini : Many things are expiring at year end. All the tax cuts on income, on dividends, on capital gains, on estates. There's an expiration of the payroll tax (cut). There is a reduction or expiration of transfer payments to state and local governments, to unemployment benefits. There is the expiration of infrastructure spending, and then there are the automatic cuts on discretionary spending, which came about because we failed to reach an agreement for reducing the budget deficit. The point is, all this is expiring at year end, and the hole will be $600 billion, or about 4% of GDP, and then we plunge into a nasty recession. Now, some items may be continued (if the Republicans and Democrats can agree to extend) but a realistic assessment is a fiscal drag. Even if the cliff is not a free fall because some items won't expire in an agreement, there will still be the beginnings of a fiscal drag, because you reduce disposable income by raising taxes, and (by) cutting transfer payments, you reduce aggregate demand by reducing government spending. - in USAToday

Roubini Economic outlook for America

Nouriel Roubini : We have positive economic growth, but it's below trend — barely 2%. Job creation is still anemic. The recovery is still anemic because the painful process of de-leveraging has not even started in the public sector. And next year there will be some fiscal drag because of the fiscal cliff that's coming up. - in USAToday

Roubini : There is an overall Slowdown of Global Growth

Nouriel Roubini : There is an overall slowdown of global growth. Europe is in a recession in the periphery countries, and it's getting worse. There is a double-dip recession in the United Kingdom, sluggish growth in Japan, and the data from many emerging markets are also suggesting a slowdown in China, Russia, Brazil, India and places like Turkey, Mexico and South Africa. - in USAToday

Roubini gave a keynote speech @ Expomanagement Madrid 2012

Nouriel Roubini is in Madrid where he gave a 90 minutes keynote speech in Madrid at HSM's that was held The 23rd and May 24th at the Palacio Municipal de Congresos in Madrid , This was the 10th edition of his well-known Expomanagement and lecture series. Nouriel Roubini speaks at his conference on The new challenge: the present and future of Europe in play The new path to growth in Europe: Keys for stability and competitively Implications for developed and developing markets Global politics, economics and finances: The panorama for the new business environment New competencies companies will need to compete in the current global market . Nouriel Roubini is One of the most renowned economists of his generation, Roubini is a Professor of Economics at NYU and is widely recognized for predicting the collapse of the U.S.

The day after the Minister of Economy and Competitiveness, Luis de Guindos, announced that the government will inject "all the capital necessary" in the nationalized Bank Bankia, famed economist Nouriel Roubini says in this interview that "it is wrong strategy for the Spanish government to put money in the banks. "In his view, this would cause "to trigger the public debt to grow further and that the state loses more credibility and solvency." Roubini believes that the most appropriate measure should come directly from the European rescue fund (ESFS). It also warns that "there may be a banking reform plan in six months" and that Spain "would have to choose a single most ambitious strategy" to stabilize the financial sector.

Roubini ‏: Sharp slowdown in Germany too

Nouriel Roubini ‏: German IFO survey falls sharply. Sharp slowdown in Germany too - in a twitter message today

Roubini : Greece to become insolvent and leave the Euro this Year or next

Nouriel Roubini : “An orderly exit of Greece from the euro is linked to considerable economic pain,” “But to watch the slow and disorderly collapse of the Greek economy and society would be much worse.” Roubini wrote in the Swiss newspaper Handelszeitung today.

Roubini : By Next Year You Could Have a Perfect Storm

Nouriel Roubini : WELL, I SEE, 2% GROWTH IS BETTER THAN EUROPE THAT IS ONE BELOW U.S. POTENTIAL OF UNEMPLOYMENT BEING HIGH. BUT I WORRY ABOUT NEXT YEAR BECAUSE BY NEXT YEAR THERE IS A FISCAL DRIVE AND GIVEN THE FISCAL CLIFF AND WAGES ARE NOT GROWING REAL TERMS , SUSTAINABLE INCOME GROWTH THAT'S BEEN TAXES AND TRANSFERS. SOME OF THEM ARE GOING TO EXPIRE NEXT YEAR SO DOUBLE WHAMMY. FISCAL DRIVE AND ANOTHER DELEVERAGING ON HOUSE NOTES. THAN IF THE GROWTH IS ONLY 2% YOU GET THIS DRAG, GO TOWARDS 1% IS BACK TO STALLED SPEED, THE RISK OF A DOUBLE DIP IN A SITUATION IN WHICH EUROPE IS IN TROUBLE AND WE MIGHT HAVE A WAR WITH IRAN, THE ISSUE OF THE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION, CHINA IS RUNNING DOWN, EVENTUAL HARD LANDING SO BY NEXT YEAR YOU COULD HAVE A PERFECT STORM. - in CNBC

Roubini : The US Stock Market to remain Flat for the rest of the Year

ROUBINI: WELL, THERE IS A REASON THERE'S BEEN A GLOBAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY FOR THE LAST THREE YEARS. ECONOMIC RECOVERY FINANCIAL MARKET RECOVERY, EARNINGS RECOVERY. AS I SAID, FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR, I EXPECT THAT ALL THE POLICY MAKERS ARE GOING TO KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD. IN THE EUROZONE, IN THE UNITED STATES, AND CHINA THE TROUBLE IS GOING TO OCCUR BY NEXT YEAR WHERE WE CANNOT KICK THE CAN DOWN THE ROAD IN THE EUROZONE, EVEN THE U.S. WITH THE FISCAL DRIVE, EVEN IN CHINA WITH THE POLITICAL TRANSITION, REQUIRES A CHANGE OF ECONOMIC POLICY. THEREFORE, TIMING IS IMPORTANT. RIGHT NOW I DON'T SEE THE MARKETS FALLING SHARPLY I SEE THE U.S. STOCK MARKET BEING FLAT FOR THE REST OF THE YEAR. AND THEREFORE I HAVE THAT POSITION. - in CNBC

Greece: Italian Marriage or Italian Divorce

Nouriel Roubini : "Greece: Matrimonio all'Italiana or Divorzio all'Italiana? What is the lesser evil & will the German husband finance the former's transfers?" Roubini tweeted today partially in Italian a language he speaks cause he studied at La Bocconi University of Milan "In Divorzio all'Italiana, filmed before Italy had a divorce law, husband murders his wife to exit. EZ exit/divorce laws preferable to that" he added " Ed Chancellor suggests a permanent transfer union for Greece rather than exit:Italian marriage rather than ugly divorce "

Roubini : Greece should follow Iceland

Nouriel Roubini : In European Crisis, Iceland Emerges as an Island of Recovery http://bit.ly/KnFbTy. Greece should follow Iceland: default and exit/devalue " Roubini said in a twitter message today

Roubini : Greece and The Icelandic Experience

Nouriel Roubini : ....The experience of Iceland and many emerging markets over the past 20 years shows that nominal depreciation and orderly restructuring and reduction of foreign debts can restore debt sustainability, competitiveness, and growth. As in these cases, the collateral damage to Greece of a euro exit will be significant, but it can be contained.
Like a doomed marriage, it is better to have rules for the inevitable divorce that make separation less costly to both sides. Make no mistake: an orderly euro exit by Greece implies significant economic pain. But watching the slow, disorderly implosion of the Greek economy and society would be much worse. - in project-syndicate

Roubini : No Contagion from a Greek Exit

Nouriel Roubini : Those who claim that contagion from a Greek exit would drag others into the crisis are also in denial. Other peripheral countries already have Greek-style problems of debt sustainability and eroded competitiveness. Portugal, for example, may eventually have to restructure its debt and exit the euro. Illiquid but potentially solvent economies, such as Italy and Spain, will need support from Europe regardless of whether Greece exits; indeed, without such liquidity support, a self-fulfilling run on Italian and Spanish public debt is likely. CommentsThe substantial new official resources of the IMF and ESM – and ECB liquidity – could then be used to ring-fence these countries, and banks elsewhere in the eurozone’s troubled periphery. Regardless of what Greece does, eurozone banks now need to be rapidly recapitalized, which requires a new EU-wide program of direct capital injections. CommentsThe experience of Iceland and many emerging markets over the past 20 years shows that nominal depreciation and orderly restructuring and reduction of foreign debts can restore debt sustainability, competitiveness, and growth. As in these cases, the collateral damage to Greece of a euro exit will be significant, but it can be contained. - in project-syndicate

Roubini : Greece Must Exit

Nouriel Roubini : The Greek euro tragedy is reaching its final act: it is clear that either this year or next, Greece is highly likely to default on its debt and exit the eurozone.Postponing the exit after the June election with a new government committed to a variant of the same failed policies (recessionary austerity and structural reforms) will not restore growth and competitiveness. Greece is stuck in a vicious cycle of insolvency, lost competitiveness, external deficits, and ever-deepening depression. The only way to stop it is to begin an orderly default and exit, coordinated and financed by the European Central Bank, the European Union, and the International Monetary Fund (the “Troika”), that minimizes collateral damage to Greece and the rest of the eurozone.
Greece’s recent financing package, overseen by the Troika, gave the country much less debt relief than it needed. But, even with significantly more public-debt relief, Greece could not return to growth without rapidly restoring competitiveness. And, without a return to growth, its debt burden will remain unsustainable. But all of the options that might restore competitiveness require real currency depreciation.- in project-syndicate

Roubini : Merkozy is Dead Merkollande is now Born

Nouriel Roubini : "Merkozy" is dead: "Merkollande", or "Merde" as some cynics put it, is now born. The game of chicken btw the 2 started. Who will blink 1st?" Roubini wrote in a twitter message " The game of chicken between Hollande and Merkel on growth vs austerity has started. Who will blink first? Or will they find a middle ground?" he added

Roubini : The Eurozone has an Austerity Strategy but no Growth Strategy

Nouriel Roubini : "Right now The Eurozone has an austerity strategy but no growth strategy," he observed recently. Without that, Roubini said, austerity and reform become "self-defeating" — not only will the absence of growth worsen government deficits, but "the social and political backlash eventually will become overwhelming." - in Los Angeles Times

Roubini : The JPMorgan Whale joins the Goldman Sachs Vampire

Nouriel Roubini : The JP Morgan Whale joins the Goldman Sachs Vampire Squid in the great hall of deep-water and sinking financial monsters - Roubini said in a twitter message commenting on The JPMorgan's $2 billion-plus trading loss via a trader nicknamed the "London Whale"

Roubini : I Worry about Next Year

Nouriel Roubini : WELL, I SEE, 2% GROWTH IS BETTER THAN EUROPE THAT IS ONE BELOW U.S. POTENTIAL OF UNEMPLOYMENT BEING HIGH. BUT I WORRY ABOUT NEXT YEAR BECAUSE BY NEXT YEAR THERE IS A FISCAL DRIVE AND GIVEN THE FISCAL CLIFF AND WAGES ARE NOT GROWING REAL TERMS , SUSTAINABLE INCOME GROWTH THAT'S BEEN TAXES AND TRANSFERS. SOME OF THEM ARE GOING TO EXPIRE NEXT YEAR SO DOUBLE WHAMMY. FISCAL DRIVE AND ANOTHER DELEVERAGING ON HOUSE NOTES. THAN IF THE GROWTH IS ONLY 2% YOU GET THIS DRAG, GO TOWARDS 1% IS BACK TO STALLED SPEED, THE RISK OF A DOUBLE DIP IN A SITUATION IN WHICH EUROPE IS IN TROUBLE AND WE MIGHT HAVE A WAR WITH IRAN, THE ISSUE OF THE NUCLEAR PROLIFERATION, CHINA IS RUNNING DOWN, EVENTUAL HARD LANDING SO BY NEXT YEAR YOU COULD HAVE A PERFECT STORM. - in CNBC

Roubini : US risks contagion from the Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : CERTAINLY THERE IS A RISK OF CONTAGION. THE TRADE LINK BETWEEN EUROPE AND U.S. ARE MODEST BUT THE FINANCIAL LINKS ARE IMPORTANT. IN THE SPRING OF 2010 WHEN THERE WAS THE FIRST GREEK CRISIS, YOU HAD THE CORRECTION OF 20% NOT ONLY OF EUROPEAN EQUITY BUT THE U.S. EQUITY. LAST SUMMER WHEN WE HAD THE WORRIES ABOUT THE EUROZONE PROBLEM SPREADING TO SPAIN AND ITALY, IT WAS A 20% CORE ACTION IN EUROPE. ALMOST AS MUCH AS CORE ACTION IN EMERGING MARKET IN THE UNITED STATES. WHEN TROUBLE OCCURS IN THE EUROZONE THE RISK OF SOMETHING DISORDERLY IMPLIES THE RISK IS OFF, RISK AVERSION IS HIGH AND THAT AFFECTS GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS NOT JUST THOSE IN THE EUROZONE. - in CNBC

Roubini : I am Worried about Spain

Nouriel Roubini : I'M WORRIED ABOUT SPAIN, BUT AS I SAY, IT'S GOING TO BE SLOW MOTION. BY THE END OF THE YEAR, SPAIN IS GOING TO LOSE MARKET ACCESS AND ARE GOING TO REQUIRE A BAILOUT IS GOING KEEP THEM OUT OF THE MARKETS FOR A YEAR OR TWO. THAT'S NOT GOING TO WORK OUT. MAYBE THREE YEARS DOWN THE LINE, THEN THE COURSE OF RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DEBT. THAT IS WITH THE DEBT PROBLEM, RESTORE ITS COMPETITIVENESS AND EVENTUALLY EVEN SPAIN COULD EXIT THE EUROZONE. IT'S NOT SOMETHING THAT'S GOING TO HAPPEN IN 12 MONTHS. THAT'S WHY I THINK OF IT AS BEING A SLOW MOTION PROCESS TO UNRAVEL OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. - in CNBC interview
Click here to watch the interview>>>>>

Nouriel Roubini CNBC Interview - 09 May 2012

NOURIEL ROUBINI SPEAKS LIVE WITH CNBC’S SCOTT WAPNER FROM THE SALT CONFERENCE IN LAS VEGAS,

Nouriel Roubini : " CERTAINLY THERE IS A RISK OF CONTAGION. THE TRADE LINK BETWEEN EUROPE AND U.S. ARE MODEST BUT THE FINANCIAL LINKS ARE IMPORTANT. IN THE SPRING OF 2010 WHEN THERE WAS THE FIRST GREEK CRISIS, YOU HAD THE CORRECTION OF 20% NOT ONLY OF EUROPEAN EQUITY BUT THE U.S. EQUITY. LAST SUMMER WHEN WE HAD THEWORRIES ABOUT THE EUROZONE PROBLEM SPREADING TO SPAIN AND ITALY, IT WAS A 20% CORE ACTION IN EUROPE. ALMOST AS MUCH AS CORE ACTION IN EMERGING MARKET IN THE UNITED STATES. WHEN TROUBLE OCCURS IN THE EUROZONE THE RISK OF SOMETHING DISORDERLY IMPLIES THE RISK IS OFF, RISK AVERSION IS HIGH AND THAT AFFECTS GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS NOT JUST THOSE IN THE EUROZONE."

New Greek word: GREZXIT

Nouriel Roubini "New Greek word: "GREZXIT" or GREEK EXIT FROM EZ" Roubini wrote in twitter today " A new Greek word after democracy, trauma, chaos, tragedy: GREZXIT or Greek Exit from the Eurozone. Variants: Grezxit it! Grezxited! Grezxed!" he added

Roubini : Situation in Europe A Slow Motion Train Wreck

Nouriel Roubini called the ongoing political turmoil in Europe a “slow motion train wreck.” Speaking to CNBC in Las Vegas on Tuesday, Roubini said he expects Greece to leave the euro zone by next year - in CNBC

Roubini : Greece should negotiate an Exit from the Euro

Nouriel Roubini : Only option to restore growth in Greece: a negotiated exit from the Euro with Troika support to avoid overshooting and collateral damage - he said in a twitter message today

Global Conference 2012 | One-on-One With Nouriel Roubini

Global Conference 2012 | One-on-One With Nouriel Roubini : What Could Possibly Go Wrong .Nouriel Roubini, Chairman and Co-Founder, Roubini Global Economics; Professor of Economics and International Business, Stern School of Business, New York University

One of the world's most influential economists, Nouriel Roubini will sit down for a wide-ranging conversation about his outlook for the year ahead - and, of course, the downside risks to watch. It seems the U.S. economy has turned the corner, but he believes austerity is deepening Europe's woes and China could be in for a hard landing. With plenty of fast and furious commentary, Roubini will offer his take on where the global economy is headed.

Nouriel Roubini in Mexico

"Our group had private meetings with 2 of Mexico's Presidential candidates: Pena Nieto and Quadri de la Torre. We heard their policy agendas" says Nouriel Roubini in a twitter message today , "Gordon Brown and I gave keynote remarks on global governance at the 21st Century Council meeting in Mexico City. A useful debate on the G20 " he added in an another message

Roubini : U.S. energy independence is years, perhaps decades, away

There’s no U.S. energy strategy or policy in place. “Where is the leadership?” he said. Natural gas deposits may be plentiful but U.S. energy independence is years, perhaps decades, away, he said. “It’s going to be a 20-year story,” Nouriel Roubini said at the Milken Institute’s 2012 Global Conference in Beverly Hills.

Roubini : US Economic Growth will be 2% this year if we are lucky

“We may be going back to stall speed in the U.S. economy,”
“The optimists today are saying the U.S. is on the cusp of a self-sustaining recovery,” he said, adding: “My view of it is: The data suggest that we’ll be lucky if this year we’re going to grow [by] barely 2%.” Nouriel Roubini said at the Milken Institute’s 2012 Global Conference in Beverly Hills.

Roubini : The Breaking up in The Eurozone is going to be a mess

Nouriel Roubini : “Breaking up is going to be a mess,” , and “financial contagion will be significant.” Roubini said at the Milken Institute’s 2012 Global Conference in Beverly Hills.