Roubini : More Monetary Easing Everywhere

Nouriel Roubini : "Everyone is going to do more monetary easing...We live in a world in which the problems of the advanced economies are not problems of liquidity. Banks have plenty of liquidity. The problems are fundamental solvency. So just throwing money at it implies that the loss will continue to collapse and banks will hold extra money in the form of excess reserves. The credit mechanism is broken and there is no creation of growth in most advanced economies. So it doesn't affect real economic activity."

Roubini : Eurozone malaise spreads across the Atlantic

Nouriel Roubini : " US consumer sentiment in a funk; consumer spending stalled. EZ malaise spreads across the Atlantic.Consumers/firms frozen as tail risks loom " - in twitter

Roubini on what matters most right now politically

Roubini : "All of it matters in the sense that we're kicking the can down the road. The Europeans do not want to make the decisions and there will be political elections in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. We have the U.S. presidential election and until then, we're not going to do anything about our fiscal problem. In China, there is a stall right now because of the leadership transition that happens once in a decade and important decisions about their growth model has to be done. The problem is that every part of the world is kicking down the road to 2013. At this time we're reaching a point in which by next year, you could be in a scenario in which we hit a brick wall, and then euro zone breaks up, in the U.S. you have a fiscal cliff, in China the landing could be hard and in the Middle East you could have a war. That is a perfect storm."

Roubini on German leadership

Roubini : "There is this gap between them saying we don't want to take all this credit risk of backstopping of $3 trillion of Spanish and Italian debt. We don't want to take all the credit risk of backstopping all the deposits of the euro zone. But then the other side says, unless you do something about it, in spite of our fiscal effort, the spreads are so high, the disintegration fragmentation of the banking system is becoming worse, and therefore we're going to end up in a complete cliff. The German one side the one guarantees that these guys do enough reform and austerity, the other side says we're doing it, but spreads are so high that it's become unsustainable."

Roubini : The Recession will become a Depression

Nouriel Roubini : "It's not just a slowdown...The recession will become a depression. Output has fallen from the peak 15% in Greece. The same thing in Spain...This could become like Japan, but worse. Japan did not have a sovereign debt crisis because it was a net creditor country. But all of these countries are net debtors. They would be lucky to end up in stagnation like Japan. It's getting worse, there's already a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an economic crisis and all of those things together are getting worse."

Roubini : Europe Situation May Turn Disorderly

Europe Situation May Turn Disorderly, Roubini

Roubini : "The European leaders already had 18 summits of the leaders in the past two years. The last summit, the headline newspaper was the leaders decided to postpone key decisions. Now there are 19 summits. Now they're supposed to come up in one summit with a political union, with a banking union, with a fiscal union, with a transfer union, with a growth compact and resolve the problems that haven't been resolved for years. Changes are the Germans are want to say no to European-wide deposit insurance."

Roubini: Two Futures for Europe

There are two futures for Europe says NYU Stern Professor of Economics Nouriel Roubini ,either you move forward or you move backward either disintegration or integration says Roubini , Europe either will implement policies that are going to restore growth , competitiveness , external balance and restore debt sustainability and gradually bring greater integration in union in the Eurozone , either this or Europoe will face disintegration Roubini says , monetary unions without fiscal and political union do not work and are doomed to fail explains Nouriel Roubini

Roubini : A Chinese hard landing is more likely

Nouriel Roubini : "A chinese hard landing is more likely @ReutersChina: China factories in 8th month of contraction: PMI (By @HornbyLucy) " - in twitter

Roubini : In Greece The Fox is back to guard the chicken hoop

Nouriel Roubini : "The fox is back to guard the chicken hoop: New Democracy that caused a deficit of 15% of GDP when last in power is back to run he Greek govt" roubini wrote in a twitter message today

Roubini : Eurozone Recession extending to the Core / Germany

Nouriel Roubini :"Germany has the weakest composite - manufacturing and services - PMI reading in three years. EZ recession extending to the core" Roubini wrote in a twitter message today

Roubini : In Italy The Business & Political Lobbies favor Euro Exit

Nouriel Roubini : "Berlusconi outburst confirms what I wrote in my last paper:powerful business/political lobbies in Italy favor Euro exit http://bit.ly/Md57XF "
"In Italy Berlusconi/his party is anti-euro; the Lega Nord has always been anti-euro & popular new Movimento 5 Stelle of Grillo is anti-Euro"
"Berlusconi says: "It isn't blasphemous to exit the Euro" signaling the he/his party & powerful business interests want to return to the Lira" He added in a second twitter message

Roubini : The Tensions in the Middle East could reach a boil by 2013

Nouriel Roubini :...Finally, long-simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other on the issue of nuclear proliferation could reach a boil by 2013. The current negotiations are likely to fail, and even tightened sanctions may not stop Iran from trying to build nuclear weapons. With the US and Israel unwilling to accept containment of a nuclear Iran by deterrence, a military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession. These risks are already exacerbating the economic slowdown: equity markets are falling everywhere, leading to negative wealth effects on consumption and capital spending. Borrowing costs are rising for highly indebted sovereigns, credit rationing is undermining small and medium-size companies, and falling commodity prices are reducing exporting countries’ income. Increasing risk aversion is leading economic agents to adopt a wait-and-see stance that makes the slowdown partly self-fulfilling. - in Project-syndicate

Roubini : 3 Scenarios for Spain & Italy

Nouriel Roubini : " 3 scenarios for Spain & Italy: 1. current Muddle Through works; 2. Full Troika Bailout; 3. Full Monty of fiscal/banking/political union" in twitter " Muddle Through is failing as Spain & Italy are on verge of losing market access. Thus 2 other options are Full Troika Bailout or Full Monty" he added " Full Monty is fiscal union with E-bonds, banking union w EZ-wide deposit insurance, growth compact, less fiscal austerity, political union" Roubini explained in another twitter message " Full Monty unacceptable to Germany. Thus if Muddle Through likely fails with Spain/Italy losing mkt access Full Troika Bailout only option " he ended

Roubini : In 6-12 months Greece will fall into Depression and hav new Elections

Nouriel Roubini : "In 6-12 months ND-Pasok gov will fall as economy will fall into a depression. Then new elections will lead Syriza to win & Grexit to occur" in twitter , the can will become a wall of bricks says Nouriel Roubini " Until by 2013 it will become real heavy and will hit a thick brick wall! @ianbremmer: Greece to World: Yes, We Can (Kick That Can)!!!"

Greece is a side show now Spain and Italy may need a full bailout

Nouriel Roubini : " Regardless of Greece elections, if spread remain elevated & rising in Spain and Italy, both may lose market access & need a full bailout " Roubini wrote in Twitter " Indeed Greece is a side show now. Italy/Spain are key @gideonrachman: @Nouriel Spot on Nouriel.Fate of euro will be decided in Spain & Italy " He added " Greece is a side show. Italy & Spain may lose market access & need Troika rescue regardless of Greek elections as Spain bank rescue botched " Roubini explained in a second message " EZ loss of market access & bailout domino: Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Soon Cyprus. Next Spain. Then Italy if Spain goes. Finally France...? "

Roubini : The Chinese Unsustainable Growth Model could be underwater by 2013

Nouriel Roubini : In the east, China, its growth model unsustainable, could be underwater by 2013, as its investment bust continues and reforms intended to boost consumption are too little too late. A new Chinese leadership must accelerate structural reforms to reduce national savings and increase consumption’s share of GDP; but divisions within the leadership about the pace of reform, together with the likelihood of a bumpy political transition, suggest that reform will occur at a pace that simply is not fast enough. CommentsThe economic slowdown in the US, the eurozone, and China already implies a massive drag on growth in other emerging markets, owing to their trade and financial links with the US and the European Union (that is, no “decoupling” has occurred). At the same time, the lack of structural reforms in emerging markets, together with their move towards greater state capitalism, is hampering growth and will reduce their resiliency. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini: Dark clouds are gathering around the world

Nouriel Roubini : Dark, lowering financial and economic clouds are, it seems, rolling in from every direction: the eurozone, the United States, China, and elsewhere. Indeed, the global economy in 2013 could be a very difficult environment in which to find shelter.
For starters, the eurozone crisis is worsening, as the euro remains too strong, front-loaded fiscal austerity deepens recession in many member countries, and a credit crunch in the periphery and high oil prices undermine prospects of recovery. The eurozone banking system is becoming balkanized, as cross-border and interbank credit lines are cut off, and capital flight could turn into a full run on periphery banks if, as is likely, Greece stages a disorderly euro exit in the next few months.
CommentsMoreover, fiscal and sovereign-debt strains are becoming worse as interest-rate spreads for Spain and Italy have returned to their unsustainable peak levels. Indeed, the eurozone may require not just an international bailout of banks (as recently in Spain), but also a full sovereign bailout at a time when eurozone and international firewalls are insufficient to the task of backstopping both Spain and Italy. As a result, disorderly breakup of the eurozone remains possible. - in his latest Project Syndicate article

Roubini - Eurozone Banking system: fragmentation, balkanization, dis-integreation

Nouriel Roubini : "EZ banking system: fragmentation, balkanization, dis-integreation as cross-border, interbank, wholesale funding rolls off & smart money runs " - in twitter

Roubini : Merkel should Issue a €1,000 Travel Voucher for every German

Economist Nouriel Roubini advises the German Chancellor Angela Merkel to provide her people with motives to visit Greece, thus boosting its economy. In particular he suggests that every German household be granted a €1,000 travel voucher so that it can plan its holidays in countries facing economic dire straits, such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. He also suggested Germany should introduce tax breaks for people who buy vacation homes in Southern Europe.

Roubini : The Eurozone needs greater integration for greater stability

12 June 2012 - Nouriel Roubini Exclusive interview with RT : The Eurozone needs greater integration for greater stability says Nouriel Roubini , If the Eurozone is to survive, monetary union is not sufficient, explains economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the collapse of the US housing market and and the global recession in 2008.

Roubini : Europe Should Stop The Savings Madness

Nouriel Roubini : "The savings madness must be stopped. Governments must lower taxes and increase wages. Europe needs growth,"
"The German government should give every German household a 1000 euro ($1,250) travel voucher. However, it should only be used for holidays in crisis countries. That will help boost growth there. In addition, everyone who buys a holiday home in a southern European state should get a tax bonus,” Roubini told German newspaper Bild as reported by CNBC

Roubini : Germany has failed to grasp the historical dimension of the European crisis

Germany has failed to grasp the historical dimension of the European crisis, warn economist Nouriel Roubini in an Financial Times oped with British historian Niall Ferguson "Berlin is ignoring the lessons of the 1930s". On the urgent need of an EZ banking union "The more a disorderly Greek withdrawal from monetary union seems probable, the more the pressure on Spanish banks will increase. This could unleash a bank-run so serious that it could overwhelm the European Central Bank. A major re-nationalisation of the banking system has already begun in Europe. This process could lead the Union toward towards total disintegration."
"For that, growth must be stimulated in the eurozone and an excessive austerity policy abandoned. The ECB must ease its monetary policy, the euro must weaken and fiscal incentives must be established. We need infrastructure programmes and salary hikes in key countries to stimulate consumption." - via presseurop.eu

Nouriel Roubini gave a keynote speech at the NY Forum Africa in Libreville, Gabon

Nouriel Roubini : " My keynote speech at the NY Forum Africa today at 4.15pm in Libreville, Gabon http://yfrog.com/mg3w7vqj "I give a keynote speech today at 16.00, on the global outlook and its implications for Africa, at the NY Forum Africa in Libreville Gabon"he added

Euro 2012 may soon turn into Drachma 2012

Nouriel Roubini : "Football championship "Euro 2012" may soon turn into "Drachma 2012" depending on results of the Greek elections on June 17th..." - in a twitter message today

Roubini : The Too-Big-to-fail Becomes Even Bigger-to-fail

Nouriel Roubini : " So that "too-big-to-fail" becomes even "bigger-to-fail? @TonyFratto: @Nouriel Big banks likely needed to catch falling mid-sized banks "
"So taxpayers pay 4 even more bank losses @TonyFratto: A plan to crush debtholders in crisis will cause some to flee worsening capital risks"
"So better to rise moral hazard? @Convertbond: @tonyfratto @nouriel If Euros want to crush senior bank debt holders who will fund the banks? " @TonyFratto wants a world where too-big-to-fail banks become even bigger-to-fail & taxpayers bail out unsecured bank creditors.Moral Hazard!" Roubini wrote today in twitter

Roubini : China cuts rates in June just as predicted by RGE

Nouriel Roubini : " We at RGE predicted (alone among all forecasters) that China would cut rates in June or July. Thanks to our China analyst Adam Wolfe " Roubini wrote today in a twitter message "

Roubini on Greece and Spain Banks problems

" In Greece, the problem is an insolvent gov bringing down the banks - In Spain it is now the other way around " wrote in a twitter message today “With exception of Greece, the deterioration in public finances was a symptom of the crisis, not its cause.” they added in a second message

Roubini : ‏2013 Could Batter Markets With a Perfect Storm

Nouriel Roubini ‏: My paper "2013 Could Batter Markets With a Perfect Storm":EZ crisis, US double dip, China/EM hard landing, MidEast war http://bit.ly/LvhDyA " Roubini wrote in a twitter message early today

Roubini ‏:Eurozone survival depends on Austerity & Reforms

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " In Berlin for policy meetings. EZ survival depends on austerity/reforms, growth compact, banking union, fiscal union/Ebonds, political union " wrote Roubini in a twitter message today

Roubini : The Future of Eurozone to be decided between Frankfurt & Berlin

Nouriel Roubini : "I am in Frankfurt today for business & policy meetings. Off to Berlin tonite. Future of Eurozone to be decided between Frankfurt & Berlin" Nouriel said today in a twitter message

Nouriel Roubini predicts sterilized QE3 in June

Nouriel Roubini : " We at RGE have been predicting sterilized QE3 in June by the Fed for months now. Now it is even more likely " said Roubini in a recent twitter message "From anemic sub-par growth to stall speed to double-dip recession? It is possible and 2013 looks worse with a serious fiscal cliff and drag" he added in another message

Nouriel Roubini : Global slowdown

Nouriel Roubini : " Global slowdown: EZ/UK in recession, US close to stall speed, BRICs slowing down, EMs - in Asia, Latam, Central Europe - slowing down too " Roubini wrote today in a twitter message

Roubini: China risks hard landing after 2013

Nouriel Roubini : "There is a meaningful probability of a hard landing in China after 2013,"
"The brand new high-speed train is half-empty and the brand new station is three-quarters empty. Parallel to that train line, there is also a new highway that looked three-quarters empty. Next to the train station is also the new local airport of Shanghai and you can fly to Hangzhou," he said.
"There is no rationale for a country at that level of economic development to have not just duplication but triplication of those infrastructure projects."
“To avoid this fate, China needs to save less, reduce fixed investment, cut net exports as a share of GDP, and boost the share of consumption”, - in morningwhistle

Roubini : America Risks Contagion from Europe

Nouriel Roubini : CERTAINLY THERE IS A RISK OF CONTAGION. THE TRADE LINK BETWEEN EUROPE AND U.S. ARE MODEST BUT THE FINANCIAL LINKS ARE IMPORTANT. IN THE SPRING OF 2010 WHEN THERE WAS THE FIRST GREEK CRISIS, YOU HAD THE CORRECTION OF 20% NOT ONLY OF EUROPEAN EQUITY BUT THE U.S. EQUITY. LAST SUMMER WHEN WE HAD THEWORRIES ABOUT THE EUROZONE PROBLEM SPREADING TO SPAIN AND ITALY, IT WAS A 20% CORE ACTION IN EUROPE. ALMOST AS MUCH AS CORE ACTION IN EMERGING MARKET IN THE UNITED STATES. WHEN TROUBLE OCCURS IN THE EUROZONE THE RISK OF SOMETHING DISORDERLY IMPLIES THE RISK IS OFF, RISK AVERSION IS HIGH AND THAT AFFECTS GLOBAL EQUITY MARKETS NOT JUST THOSE IN THE EUROZONE. - in CNBC

Roubini : 2013 perfect storm scenario

Nouriel Roubini : "2013 perfect storm scenario: EZ train wreck; US back to stall speed w fiscal cliff; oil price spike as Iran war; China/EmMkts hard landing " Roubini wrote today in a twitter message