IMF Downgrades 2013 Growth Outlook

Nouriel Roubini :" IMF downgrades 2013 growth outlook, warns about risk of a global recession & worries about negative effects of excessive fiscal austerity ""IMF downgrades global outlook & doesn't rule out a global recession in 2012 " He added in a twitter message

I have known about co-operatives, since I was a child

" I have known about co-operatives, since I was a child." Growing up in Italy, co-operatives were involved in agriculture, financial services and retail, he said. Later, working on a kibbutz in Israel, he learned about "sharing with other people and common goals." " Roubini said Speaking at the International Summit of Co-operatives in Quebec City's convention centre Tuesday, - in Montreal gazette

Global Growth to come from Emerging Markets

Nouriel Roubini : "Global growth is going to come from emerging markets" Roubini said Speaking at the International Summit of Co-operatives in Quebec City's convention centre Tuesday, - in Montreal gazette

Stall Speed : The Growth next year could be as low as 0.5 percent

Nouriel Roubini : If the economy continues to grow at about “only 1.5 percent and you have a fiscal bump of 1 percent of gross domestic product, then growth next year could be as low as 0.5 percent,” “Given how slow we are growing, even a fiscal bump, let alone a fiscal cliff, pushes us close to stall speed.”Roubini said - in San Francisco Chronicle

Roubini in Quebec City for a Keynote Speech

Nouriel Roubini : This morning I give my keynote speech on the global economic outlook at the International Summit of Cooperatives in Quebec City - in twitter

Roubini on the Economic outlook of Germany

Nouriel Roubini : "There was a divergence between economic growth of the core and the peripheral of the euro zone. Germany used to do better, but the latest data suggests a slowdown in German economic growth. It is still positive, but there are two shocks. There are two main markets for exports, China and Asia, are slowing down. Secondly, the recession of the periphery of the euro zone is taking a toll because after all, most of the exports of Germany go to the rest of the euro zone. There is a significant slowdown of growth, even in Germany." - in Bloomberg

Roubini on what would be the catalyst to break up the banks

Nouriel Roubini : "I would have thought after the worst global financial crisis the decision would have been made. Maybe we need another big financial crisis. For the time being, the politics will not lead us there." - in Bloomberg

Roubini on the Banking System in the U.S.

Nouriel Roubini : "It is worse than before, because there has been massive consolidation of the banking system in the United States, JPMorgan took over Bear Stearns. Bank of America took over Countrywide and Merrill Lynch. We had banks that were too big to fail before the crisis and now they are even bigger to fail than before. There has been mass consolidation. The problem has not gone away. The only solution is to break up too big to fail banks. There is no other alternative. We have to go back to Glass-Steagall." - in Bloomberg

Roubini on whether Bernanke is an Asset or Liability for President Obama

Nouriel Roubini : "At the margin, he's an asset in a sense of what the Fed has been doing is reduce the tail risk of another double dip recession. QE, QE2, Operation Twist and now QE 3. It is not going to have a huge effect on the economy, but it already has an effect on stock prices. There has been a rally of 15% since December in part because of lower tail risk in the euro zone and in part because of QE3. The margin is beneficial, but only marginally." - in Bloomberg

Fiddling at the Fire by Nouriel Roubini

PARIS – Financial markets have rallied since July on the hope that the global economic and geopolitical outlook will not worsen, or, if it does, that central banks stand ready to backstop economies and markets with additional rounds of liquidity provision and quantitative easing. So, not only has good – or better-than-expected – economic news boosted the markets, but even bad news has been good news, because it increases the probability that central-banking firefighters like US Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will douse the markets with buckets of cash.
But markets that rise on both good and bad news are not stable markets. “Risk-off” episodes, in which investor sentiment sours, are likely to return if economic news worsens and confidence in policymakers’ effectiveness drops.

In the eurozone, euphoria followed the ECB’s decision to provide support with potentially unlimited purchases of distressed countries’ bonds. But the move is not a game changer; it only buys time for policymakers to implement the tough measures needed to resolve the crisis. And the policy challenges are daunting: the eurozone’s recession is deepening as front-loaded fiscal consolidation and severe credit rationing continues. And, as eurozone banks and public-debt markets become increasingly balkanized, establishing a banking union, a fiscal union, and an economic union while pursuing macroeconomic policies that restore growth, external balance, and competitiveness will be extremely difficult. - in Project syndicate

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Roubini : Why Indonesia Should Be a BRICs Member

Nouriel Roubini on Why Indonesia Should Be a BRICs Member Nouriel Roubini :" As I wrote 2 years ago Indonesia deserves more than Russia to be a member of the BRICs. Stable democracy, strong growth, sound macro policy " - in twitter

Roubini: Fiscal Bump Could Drag 2013 GDP to 0.5%

Oct. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman & co-founder at Roubini Global Economics, discusses the potential impact on U.S. GDP of even a smaller than expected version of the fiscal cliff. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."

German Economy Slowing Down

Nouriel Roubini : “There was a divergence between economic growth of the core and the peripheral of the euro zone. Germany used to do better, but the latest data suggests a slowdown in German economic growth. It is still positive, but there are two shocks. There are two main markets for exports, China and Asia, are slowing down. Secondly, the recession of the periphery of the euro zone is taking a toll because after all, most of the exports of Germany go to the rest of the euro zone. There is a significant slowdown of growth, even in Germany.” - in Bloomberg Oct. 3
Click here to watch the full interview>>>>>>

Roubini on why the Federal Reserve keeps issuing Quantitative Easing

Nouriel Roubini : “We're in the process of very painful deleveraging in advanced economies. We started the crisis with too much private debt and now we have too much public debt and deficits. Research suggests that usually a deleveraging cycle can last up to a decade. The crisis in 2007, now we are in 2012 and therefore the process of deleveraging in the United States, in the euro zone, in the U.K. and Japan is barely mid-stream. In the U.S. we postponed the deleveraging of the public sector and the housing sector, and therefore, economic growth is anemic. Therefore, the only thing we can do, given we don't have the fiscal tool, is use the monetary policy.”

Roubini: France Could Be Next to Fall

" The fundamental problems [of France] are similar to those of the periphery of the Eurozone " says Nouriel Roubini, chairman & co-founder at Roubini Global Economics, discussing the problems of the French economy, linking them to the periphery of Europe. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."

The Can is getting Heavier

Nouriel Roubini : But, as everyone kicks the can down the road, the can is getting heavier and, in the major emerging markets and advanced economies alike, is approaching a brick wall. Policymakers can either crash into that wall, or they can show the leadership and vision needed to dismantle it safely. - in project syndicate

Roubini : Greece could exit the Eurozone in 2013, before Spain and Italy

Nouriel Roubini : ..., Greece could exit the eurozone in 2013, before Spain and Italy are successfully ring-fenced; Spain – like Greece – is spiraling into depression, and may need a full-scale bailout by the “troika” (the ECB, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund). Meanwhile, austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery is increasingly clashing with bailout fatigue in the core. - in project syndicate

Roubini : Many Problems are brewing in France

“Hollande was not elected by his base to pursue austerity and reforms, but rather to boost growth and hiring in the public sector,” Roubini wrote in a note to clients, according to Business Insider.

Roubini: France is on the cusp of becoming a periphery country

France A core or Periphery Country? : Nouriel Roubini says France is on the cusp right now and poses the question in a recent note to clients: “A core or periphery country?” Roubini says that France is currently on “honeymoon” with French investors who have cut their holdings of PIIGS debt and rotated into French sovereign debt due to a “home bias.” However, according to Roubini, “many problems are brewing in France” at the moment, and there are a few reasons for serious concern if you’re holding French bonds.
Source Business Insider Read More >>>>>>

US Growth in H2 slowing to a crawl

Nouriel Roubini : " Chicago ISM & regional survey suggest a weakening of the the ISM & manufacturing at the national level. US growth in H2 slowing to a crawl "

Canadian Economy sluggish Growth Rate

Nouriel Roubini :" I am in Toronto today for business meetings. Canadian economy to grow at at sluggish 1.7% rate this year and even lower next year " - in twitter

Uncertainties & Fiscal Cliff keep Corporates on hold

Nouriel Roubini : " Lousy U.S. durable goods report. Capex spending to contract in Q3 as weak growth, uncertainties & fiscal cliff keep corporates on hold " - in twitter

Reality check sets in Eurozone ~ Deeper Recession

Nouriel Roubini :" After OMT euphoria a reality check sets in EZ; austerity (bailout) fatigue in periphery (core); deeper recession; obstacles to greater union " - in twitter

Catalonia wants Autonomy / Secession

Nouriel Roubini : " Spanish spreads rise as Spain delays asking 4 an MoU, social tensions rise, Catalonia wants autonomy & core EZ backpedal on bank recap plan "
" Catalonia makes net transfers to the ctr gov equal to 8% of GDP. It wants to reduce them to 4%. This challenges the Spanish transfer union" - in twitter

Indonesia instead of Russia should be a BRICs Member

Nouriel Roubini :" As I wrote 2 years ago Indonesia deserves more than Russia to be a member of the BRICs. Stable democracy, strong growth, sound macro policy " - in twitter

Roubini spoke today @ the NYSE @ the Indonesia Investment Day

Nouriel Roubini :" I spoke today at the NYSE at the Indonesia Investment Day. The country's growth is accelerating while that of BRICs & other EM is slowing " - in twitter

Roubini : in Italy There is no alternative to Monti

"There's no alternative to Montismo," Nouriel Roubini said at the Ambrosetti workshop in Como northern Italy . "If we have a grand coalition, it is highly possible that it will be led by Monti," He added - in the WSJ

Roubini Speech @ Ambrosetti Forum

“If today’s jobs number is ok then the Fed can wait to do QE3,” “Yet the economy is weak enough and the unemployment rate weak enough that the Fed is going to do QE3 eventually.” Roubini said at the Ambrosetti Forum in Lake Como, Italy.

Roubini's speech starts @ 04:47

Roubini In Italy today for a keynote speech at the Polosio Peace Prize

Nouriel Roubini: I am in Italy today for a keynote speech at the Polosio Peace Prize. My remark to be reported following the just finished press conference - in twitter

Kocherlakota converts from Hawk to Dove

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" Kocherlakota converts from hawk to dove. It signal how worried the Fed is about US growth and the risks from the fiscal cliff. " - in twitter

The Eurozone back to Crisis years (2008-2009) levels

Nouriel Roubini : " EZ PMIs back to crisis years (2008-2009) levels @MarkitEconomics: Updated chart of EZ GDP and Composite #PMI. http://twitpic.com/awhw60 " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Italy's Recession Deepening

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Based on PMIs, Italy's recession is deepening, France is entering a contraction while Germany's sharp growth slowdown is modestly improving - in twitter

Roubini : France in Recession

Nouriel Roubini : France in recession @MarkitEconomics: France private sector recorded sharpest fall in output since Apr-09. Comp PMI down to 44.1 (Aug: 48.0) - in twitter

Ignore The Rising Markets

Nouriel Roubini : Financial markets have rallied since July on the hope that the global economic outlook will not worsen, or, if it does, that central banks stand ready to backstop economies and markets with additional rounds of liquidity provision and quantitative easing. So, not only has good—or better-than-expected—economic news boosted the markets, but even bad news has been good news, because it increases the probability that central-banking firefighters like U.S. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and European Central Bank President Mario Draghi will douse the markets with buckets of cash. - in project syndicate

Roubini : Ineffective Governments with weak leadership are at the root of the problem. In democracies

Nouriel Roubini : “Ineffective governments with weak leadership are at the root of the problem. In democracies, repeated elections lead to short-term policy choices. In autocracies like China and Russia, leaders resist the radical reforms that would reduce the power of entrenched lobbies and interests, thereby fueling social unrest as resentment against corruption and rent-seeking boils over into protest,” Roubini wrote in a Project Syndicate column.