Nouriel Roubini : Politics Will Define 2013

Nouriel Roubini :.... The developed markets are “submerging,” or reverting to an emerging-markets-style world in which politics drives almost everything.the familiar macroeconomic toolkit isn’t working anymore. That means we need to create one, an inevitably political process.“This is an issue that is coming, but it is not there yet,” he said. “It is clear in the U.S. we are talking about inequality. It is not clear we will do anything about it.” - via the economonitor

Nouriel Roubini : America is yet to wake up to the full extent of its Fiscal Nightmare

Nouriel Roubini : ...“Later in 2013, and not before time, a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin. This will lead to another dispute between Republicans, who want to shrink the size of the federal government, and Democrats, who want to maintain it but are unsure how to pay for it.”“So the US could quite easily come perilously close to stall speed this year – or worse, if the eurozone crisis worsens.” “The reality is that America is yet to wake up to the full extent of its fiscal nightmare” - Roubini wrote in the FT last week

Roubini predicts further fiscal crises for US, will get "messy"

Nouriel Roubini : "It won't be long before there is another crisis. Two months, in fact." "That is only the beginning later in 2013 a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin." He added that "a big fight about entitlements should be expected as well as a series of little fights over tax reforms" and the whole process will likely "soon get messy." - in globalpost

Nouriel Roubini : Fears of early Fed QE phase-out are way exaggerated

Nouriel Roubini : Fears of early Fed QE phase-out are way exaggerated. Fed minutes noises are most likely another Fed fake... expect QE thru all of 2013- in twitter

Roubini : Jobs Report consistent with the anemic below-trend GDP growth rate

Nouriel Roubini : " Jobs report consistent with the anemic below-trend GDP growth rate of about 2%. This before payroll tax increase hits disposable income"
" US holiday retail sales disappoint, FT http://on.ft.com/RuTA9T This before the rise in the payroll tax reduces disposable income by 2% " - in twitter

The US Will ‘Soon Get Messy’ Again

Nouriel Roubini : "It won't be long before there is another crisis. Two months, in fact.""That is only the beginning later in 2013 a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin.""a big fight about entitlements should be expected as well as a series of little fights over tax reforms" and the whole process will likely "soon get messy." - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini : The US has been let down by its leadership

The mini fiscal deal has prevented the U.S. economy from falling off the fiscal cliff right now but, to mix metaphors, it has only really kicked the cliff down the road. excerpt from the "new Financial Times op-ed on the fiscal cliffs ahead: "US has been let down by its leadership" FT Opinion http://on.ft.com/Wliypi"

Nouriel Roubini : 2013 Themes , Wars Crisis and Tensions

Nouriel Roubini : " 2013 themes: ongoing US cliffs, EZ crisis, China hard landing?, Iran/Israel, BRICs slowdown with state capitalism, Asia islands tensions " - in twitter

Roubini : Asian Exports Falling is a Sign of Global Economic Slowdown

Nouriel Roubini : " Korean exports are usually first and early barometer of global trade & growth "S Korea’s falling exports" FT http://on.ft.com/Z75FFP "
" Driven by EZ recession & US uncertainties @Reuters_Biz: Asia's factories show signs of revival, but exports sluggish http://reut.rs/WkagOA" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Fiscal Cliff Deal ? What Deal , Talk is Cheap

Nouriel Roubini : " A deal? Which deal? Talk is cheap. No vote so we are over the cliff. And we will see if the House will eventually vote for this alleged deal "
" Mini-deal or not, serial cliffs - starting with the debt ceiling cat-fight - will be be with us thru all of 2013. Happy New Year to all!"
" 2013 serial fiscal cliffs: tax cuts expire, spending sequester, debt ceiing catfight, medium term fiscal adj, entitlement reform, tax reform" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Either the Eurozone moves toward fuller integration capped by political union or it will undergo disunion

Nouriel Roubini : .......Meanwhile, the monetary union remains an unstable disequilibrium: either the eurozone moves toward fuller integration (capped by political union to provide democratic legitimacy to the loss of national sovereignty on banking, fiscal, and economic affairs), or it will undergo disunion, dis-integration, fragmentation, and eventual breakup. And, while European Union leaders have issued proposals for a banking and fiscal union, now Germany is pushing back. German leaders fear that the risk-sharing elements of deeper integration (the ESM’s recapitalization of banks, a common resolution fund for insolvent banks, eurozone-wide deposit insurance, greater EU fiscal authority, and debt mutualization) imply a politically unacceptable transfer union whereby Germany and the core unilaterally and permanently subsidize the periphery. Germany thus believes that the periphery’s problems are not the result of the absence of a banking or fiscal union; rather, on the German view, large fiscal deficits and debt reflect low potential growth and loss of competitiveness due to the lack of structural reforms. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini : QE Wars as proxies for Currency Wars in 2013

Nouriel Roubini :" QE wars as proxies for currency wars in 2013 as most economies want net export improvement given anemic domestic demand. Zero sum game " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: If a currency is weaker another is stronger

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" If a currency is weaker another is stronger; if a trade balance is improved another is worsened. Zero sum game in currencies/trade balances " - in twitter

Roubini : QE wars may be positive-sum game But let's not call them currency wars that are zero-sum games

Nouriel Roubini : " QE wars may be positive-sum game in a world where nominal demand is depressed. But let's not call them currency wars that are zero-sum games " - in twitter

Roubini : Asian Territorial issues will create Geopolitical Tensions in 2013

Nouriel Roubini : Asian islands/territorial issues will create geopolitical noise/tensions in 2013. More nationalistic new governments in China, Japan, Korea - in twitter

Roubini : The Debt Ceiling is a dumb idea

Nouriel Roubini : " The debt ceiling is a dumb idea: once Congress votes a budget, that determines the debt issued.So this yearly farce/saga on ceiling is crazy " - in twitter

Roubini : a massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain have been reduced for 2013

Nouriel Roubini :........The tail risks of a Greek exit from the eurozone or a massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain have been reduced for 2013. But the fundamental crisis of the eurozone has not been resolved, and another year of muddling through could revive these risks in a more virulent form in 2014 and beyond. Unfortunately, the eurozone crisis is likely to remain with us for years to come, sustaining the likelihood of coercive debt restructurings and eurozone exits.

 - in project-syndicate

Roubini : US Retailers face hohum Holiday Sales

Nouriel Roubini : " Cliff uncertainty & flat real incomes give blues @MacroScope: US retailers face hohum holiday sales, early data suggest http://reut.rs/Tw3OJf "
" Credit risk deterioration @Dvolatility: Bond Ratings Cuts Advance to Fastest Since ’09: Credit Markets http://bloom.bg/12OFoex via @Bloomberg " in twitter

Roubini : 2nd Amendment Falsely Interpreted

Nouriel Roubini :"2nd Amendment gives right to every American to carry any gun, assault weapon, bazooka, tank, missile, rocket, biochemical/nuclear weapon"
"If 2nd amendment gave right to carry weapons - & it doesn't - every1 should have right to own any weapon including missiles, tanks, rockets "
"Bio/chemical/nuclear weapons don't kill people. People kill people. Legalize bio/chemical/nuclear weapons... "
"2nd amendment falsely interpreted 2 give nonexistent individual right to bear arms. It doesnt. It gives that right only to defense militias " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Happy Cliffmas!

Nouriel Roubini : "Happy Cliffmas! "
" Greek Bond Buyback May Have Been Cheaper Under Collective Action Clause http://bit.ly/RNso7O But Greece didn't use them & overpaid investors " - in twitter

Roubini : Balkanization of Economic Activity, Banking systems, and public-debt markets continues

Nouriel Roubini : ........Moreover, balkanization of economic activity, banking systems, and public-debt markets continues, as foreign investors flee the eurozone periphery and seek safety in the core. Private and public debt levels are high and possibly unsustainable. After all, the loss of competitiveness that led to large external deficits remains largely unaddressed, while adverse demographic trends, weak productivity gains, and slow implementation of structural reforms depress potential growth. CommentsTo be sure, there has been some progress in the eurozone periphery in the last few years: fiscal deficits have been reduced, and some countries are now running primary budget surpluses (the fiscal balance excluding interest payments). Likewise, competitiveness losses have been partly reversed as wages have lagged productivity growth, thus reducing unit labor costs, and some structural reforms are ongoing. - in project-syndicate

Roubini : The drag from the Periphery was now hitting he Eurozone’s core

Nouriel Roubini : “Unless we restore economic growth in five years’ time this will become financially, socially and politically unsustainable. Europe has not spent enough time talking about what are the intelligent and creative ways to jump-start economic growth in the periphery and the core.” He pointed to potential infrastructure expenditure, even in Germany, and added the Eurozone’s periphery needed the euro to weaken “10% to 20%” against major trading partners’ currencies, whereas Germany “could live with the euro at 130”. He said the drag from the periphery was now hitting he Eurozone’s core, and it is now “quite clear France, for example, is entering recession and next year there will be a degree of debt consolidation [there].” - in investmenteurope

Roubini : Mayan End of the World Cliff avoided but now the Fiscal Cliff looms closer

Nouriel Roubini : "Mayan End of the World Cliff avoided but now the Fiscal Cliff looms closer as deadlock btw Dems and Reps acute. Likely we go over the cliff"
"As we survived the End of the World we can now celebrate the Winter Solstice... " - in twitter

Roubini : Everyday in America there is a Newtown massacre

Nouriel Roubini : "Every day in the U.S. there is a Newtown massacre as 30 folks die daily from homicide every single day of the year "
" National (Selling) Rifle Association "solution" to gun violence: sell another 100,000 guns to give even more profits to gun manufacturers" - in twitter

Roubini : Gold price may have reached its choke level

Nouriel Roubini : What’s bugging gold? | FT Alphaville http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1315162 Losing its shine. Why is the gold price not moving?
Capping the gold price, FT Alphaville http://ftalphaville.ft.com/?p=1298491 Gold price may have reached its choke level & may capped from this point on - in twitter

Roubini :The Eurozone day of reckoning has been delayed but not averted for good

Nouriel Roubini :The Eurozone's day of reckoning has been delayed but not averted for good | Nouriel Roubini http://bit.ly/TCGs0W - in twitter

Roubini : Germany’s Attitude toward the Eurozone & Greece has changed

Nouriel Roubini : .....Germany’s attitude toward the eurozone in general, and Greece in particular, has changed. German officials now understand that, given extensive trade and financial links, a disorderly eurozone hurts not just the periphery but the core. They have stopped making public statements about a possible Greek exit, and just supported a third bailout package for the country. As long as Spain and Italy remain vulnerable, a Greek blowup could spark severe contagion before Germany’s election next year, jeopardizing Chancellor Angela Merkel’s chances of winning another term. So Germany will continue to finance Greece for the time being. - in project-syndicate

Roubini: Weak U.S. Growth Ahead, Cliff Dive

Economist Nouriel Roubini appeared on "Bloomberg Surveillance" with Tom Keene and said that U.S. growth will be "barely 1.7%" in 2013. Roubini also said that "there's a highly likely chance we're going to go over the cliff. If we do so, the market reaction is going to force the two sides to reach an agreement."

Roubini: Housing Optimists Will Be Proven Wrong

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, discusses the strength of the housing recovery and where he sees manufacturing in the United States. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Roubini : Unless we restore economic growth in five years time this will become financially, socially and politically unsustainable

Nouriel Roubini : “There is still room for cutting the policy rate, right now at 0.75%. Why is the ECB waiting? You could cut it to a negative level. “Unless we restore economic growth in five years’ time this will become financially, socially and politically unsustainable. Europe has not spent enough time talking about what are the intelligent and creative ways to jump-start economic growth in the periphery and the core.” - in investmenteurope

Roubini: Bad News for Housing & for Europe

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, discusses the strength of the housing recovery and the global impact of the spread of the European recession. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Bloomberg Surveillance."

Roubini : Fed Inflation Targeting Out the Window

Dec. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, talks about Federal Reserve monetary policy, the outlook for the global economy and the U.S. budget negotiations. He speaks with Tom Keene, Sara Eisen and Scarlet Fu on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance." (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini : The FED decision today is QE5

Nouriel Roubini :" Fed decision today is QE5 as Op Twist was QE3 (sterilized QE=unsterilized at 0% rates) & open-ended QE in Q3 was QE4. So today is QE5! " - in twitter

Roubini : QE4 coming soon ?

Nouriel Roubini : " How much when we will get to QE4? @tomkeene: Fed Seen Pumping Up Assets to $4 Trillion in New Buying - Bloomberg http://bloom.bg/YY0JUy " - in twitter

Roubini Lecture at MIP on the 6th November 2012

Roubini's Lecture at MIP on the 6th November 2012 entitled "Europe and the future of the global economy", held by Professor Nouriel Roubini on 6 November at the Milan Polytechnic.