NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, June 21, 2020
👉We are in a Venezuela-Shaped Recovery !!
👉We are in a Venezuela-Shaped Recovery !!
This is a classic bear market rally. Nothing is normal in these markets; Despite the market's impressive performance since the March lows. Something has to give. Most people don’t know this. From November 1929 to April 1930, the stock market ripped 50 percent after that initial plunge, and it lured so many people into thinking that, you know, we’re going to be having stimulus, and we’re past the worst part of the shock, but people didn’t factor into the fact that the shock produced a fundamental change in behavior, and the economy actually went in for another two years of distress. That’s not what’s priced in right now. I think that once we realize that the economy is not going to embark on some V-shaped. The only V in this recovery will be as in "V is for Venezuela." A Venezuela-shaped recovery. I think we’re going to give up a lot of these gains. We’re actually trading at a multiple that represents market peaks. This is not the sort of multiple you get coming into a new bull market. What we have now is nothing short of market manipulation. Reducing the cost of overnight funds is one thing. Extending the intervention to Treasuries or high-quality securities is something we became accustomed to in the aftermath of the last Great Recession. That’s when the Fed became a duration bond manager. In a normal rally, you have flows you can identify, but this is a short-covering rally, and on top of that, there are no sellers. There are no sellers. People are just too scared to sell stocks. When you hear over and over again, “Don’t fight the fed, don’t fight the fed,” when people see, oh, well, the Fed has actually went in and said they’re going to buy high-yield bonds, well, high-yield bonds reside right next to the equity market of the capital structure. We learned that, for example, households were not prepared for this. I was actually stunned to find out that over 50 percent of American households did not have enough cash on hand to even withstand three months of a lockdown. A lot of people out there are yearning for everything to return back to the pre-pandemic normal, and my typical response is, be careful what you wish for because we knew already before the pandemic that the economy was cooling off. First-quarter GDP, just as an example, contracted at a five percent annual rate, and productivity was down 0.9 percent. So, we already had an economy that was cooling down. Productivity was in a recession. Capital spending had been in a recession. Commercial construction had been in a recession, and for most of last year, we were in a recession in corporate profits. What kept the glue together, of course, was the fact that the consumer kept chugging along, but the pre-pandemic norm was actually quite abnormal, and, in fact, we have to just look at everything in the context of the entire cycle. I mean here we had the weakest economic growth cycle of all time, barely more than two percent at an annual rate in terms of real GDP, and of course, we had a phenomenal stock market that was built on a lot of financial engineering; in the sense that it was the biggest debt-for-equity swap of all time. Instead of the debt being issued to finance capital expenditure for productivity purposes, it went to buy back stock. So that’s the real world that we had. Yes, unemployment was at a 50-year low. That much is true, and we got as low as three and a half percent but took a look at the quality of the jobs that were created. Most of the jobs that were created this cycle were not in physics or in engineering or in the sciences. It was entertainment. It was leisure. It was in hotels. It was in theme parks. So, it’s basically what we just found out. We found out that the nonessential part of the economy had to shut down, but who knew until we shut it down that the nonessential part of the U.S. economy was 80 percent of GDP. Now we have people who are unemployed but making more money, not working than when they had a job. The incentive system has been destroyed, not by the pandemic, but by the pathetic government response, every step of the way. This economy was destroyed by the great job outsourcing starting with Reagan. Restaurants Dry cleaners and Delivery service and uber jobs are useless. We need shipbuilding, commercial shipbuilding, and the US needs to export products to the world using US shipping, not foreign flag renegade operators. The fed and government are just putting off the inevitable. Take your pick . 1. The clock runs out on stimulus, and the bottom falls out. 2. More MMT and eventually total collapse as debt continues to explode and crowds out the real economy with stagflation resulting. All previous pandemics plateaued before a cure was found. Covid-19 is a perfect example where the curve has already been flattened almost everywhere. Reality is that Covid-19 is just used as a cover for fundamental problems. There’s a famous saying on Wall Street. Do not fight the Fed, and the trend is your friend. With interest rates at zero and perhaps turning negative, all this new printed liquidity will flow into equities to catch yields. But once interest rates ever start to rise again..even modestly. Watch out. The stock market is running on pure speculation. It's certainly not based on any sort of data (momentum-based algorithms that appear to have overshot). Earnings reports are generally down, and stocks were pricey at this point even before. We're in big trouble, but not just because the economy is shrinking. What's far, scarier is the exorbitant national debt that we have added. The CEOs of the worst actors got paid off! They participated in stock buybacks, inflated their own stocks, sold them for huge personal gain, and then got bailed out! Why would anything change? Meanwhile, well-behaved companies suffer a bad economy and get taxed to cover the government's costs. Corporate boards only looking after their own interests, not the shareholders! Why is it called stimulus when it is free money to the CEOs and C suiters who bankrupted their companies, but a 'handout' when it is a couple of hundred bucks to the people. The corruption the federal reserve and the central banks are enabling for the billionaire hedge fund, private equity 'philanthropists' with their secret books and need for absolute power over every human because we have no rule of law at the top anymore is stunningly in our face. And you all keep pretending there is some intelligence behind it - there is none. It is only evil. The money is going to stock buy-backs because it's a short term quick fix. Corporate executives calculate that this is the best way to keep major shareholders happy with rising prices and dividends, thus ensuring their own ridiculously inflated compensation packages. So unless their major shareholders are pension funds, they couldn't give a damn about pensioners, whose long term interests would be best served if the earnings were reinvested to improve productivity. And even if they have considerable investment from pension funds, that hardly means they give any consideration to individual pensioners. Passing on the bad news is what pension boards are for. Higher inflation and lower interest rates do not lead to people saving more. Cash goes into the stock market bubble or creates greater inflation with increased purchasing of hard assets. Depression would not be because of the Wuhan Flu. It would be the overreaction of politicians who jettisoned any semblance of critical thinking a long time ago. A lot of businesses were barely surviving before this started. They've been helped along by PPP and other government bailouts, but unless the .government keeps throwing money at them, they will start and continue to fail over time. The U.S. economic crisis is even worse than it appears. Over the last few months, we have seen interest rates plunging to zero; trillions of dollars have been printed into our economy to help lift it back to life; toilet paper is now the hottest commodity of all time. The Fed is making sure the Stock Market can’t lose. They have messed up the stock market by artificially inflating it. Jobs reports fill in a picture of devastating unemployment nationwide not seen since the Great Depression. A hundred million people are out of the labor force. The official unemployment rate is about 14.7 percent, but if you dig below the numbers, It's really around 22 percent, when you consider the tens of millions who have lost their jobs. And by the way, that data is now a couple of weeks old. It's probably even higher than that. Unemployment stimulus runs out in July. Chaos will begin. There will be no normal. By Fall/Winter, we are going to see some real anger and fear from people who can't find jobs and have no...really no...income coming in. When people lose everything, they lose it. There will be collapse and looting, WAR, and starvation is what there will be. What is going to happen when 100 million people stop paying their rents, their mortgages, their car loans, their iPhone loans. I guess we'll have to bail the banks out again. Mustn't it be nice to be a banker? Do a really, really bad job, and you get bailed out by the taxpayer and given a HUGE big bonus. When I come back after death, I am going to be a banker. "Good times" for the general public have been erased. "Good times" for the bank cartel, selected corporations, and the US Psychopaths In Charge go on undiminished, as was the plan. Why else would the economy that feeds us be destroyed to keep us from getting sick? Why else would a "race war" be instigated at the very moment the general public was prepared to ignore corona flu tyrannical edicts! Civil unrest in North America will be ugly and dangerous. The rest of the world is waiting for this civil war. The thing is, we as a nation have allowed it to happen. It's the price we pay for being asleep at the wheel, living in delusion, and not seeing the revolving door between the corporate sector and the government administration. Believing we live in democracy just because we can vote. The choice is one of 2 parties, both with largely the same agenda - self-interest and screwing other countries. ZERO accountability, no respect for the law. The economic crisis also means that the demand for food stamps will swell. Tens of millions of Americans are food-insecure right now. And all of their numbers are growing. Mile-long lines at food banks. Forty million Americans live on food stamps, as so-called SNAP benefits. They're rationing food. If this goes on much, much longer, then we could start to see actual starvation in America. We're doing far much worse than any developed Western nation. Prior to the crisis, about 11 percent of Americans suffered from food insecurity. And we have every reason to believe that those statistics are increasing dramatically in the current time period. Even when the economy reopens, people don't have money to spend because so many jobs are gone. Most Americans are out of work and out of money. So they will not be eating out, shopping for new clothes or cars, buying houses or boats or even TV sets. Our economy is spiraling downward, and no one can say how or when it will recover. A lot of businesses will be closed down after the lock-down. The real crash has not happened yet. The market crashed, but we need to see Foreclosures, people will be jumping out of the windows. Stuff like this was weird, people sitting home watching TV like nothing happening, that’s the problem. Wait till you have to start paying bills, and you go back to your job, and they say hit the road we do not need you. The "honeymoon " has yet to end. That will happen in August when stimulus payments end, and the moratorium on evictions is lifted. We will see 35 million new homeless by the end of the year. Jobs and businesses are not coming back. And a war with China is coming. I give it 18 months. The geopolitical tensions are already precipitating rapid exit from U.S. denominated debt instruments and the US dollar. The closing down of national economies applied Worldwide will inevitably result in poverty, mass unemployment, and an increase in mortality. It’s an act of economic warfare. It’s an unspoken crime against humanity. This diabolical process is not limited to wiping out small and medium-sized enterprises. Big Money is also the creditor of large corporations (including airlines, hotel chains, hi-tech labs, retailers, import-export firms, etc.), which are now on the verge of bankruptcy. The global financial establishment is not monolithic. It is marked by divisions and rivalry. The dominant Big Money faction seeks to destabilize its competitors from within. The results of which would be a string of bankruptcies of regional and national banking institutions as well as a process of global financial consolidation. In the US, numerous retailers, airlines, restaurants, and hotel chains filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy. But this is just the beginning. The big gush of bankruptcies will occur in the wake of the lockdown (“The New Normal”). Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Recessions are not equal opportunity events. Those folks employed, still bringing home a paycheck, experience little recessionary effects other than some grocery items tend to sell out quickly while others are not available. There really is little difference to their day to day life (sans COVID). For those who are not being called back or have learned their employer has closed the business, not to mention all those folks who are still standing in line for UI applications, the recession, and its impacts are very real. There are safety nets like state welfare, SNAP, WIC, but those programs aren't intended to be recessionary relief and largely serve the very low income. It's the average American who sits square in the middle of America - they are the hardest hit. They can't cash in on social programs because they are means-tested and sometimes take a while to get approved. They primarily live beyond their means and increasingly relied on credit cards to make up the difference. They have little or no savings. No real assets owned outright. There's no way out for them other than recovery/job. What's different about this recession is it hasn't actually hit, and we're way ahead of that ball game. When the real impact hits, millions of Americans already behind the eight balls will again be slammed this time into poverty and homelessness. This is all happening when America is the most divisive in history. The community spirit is fast eroding to every man for himself. We are in for a slow, long recovery, rather than an immediate bounce-back. There will be no V Shape recovery. The GDP for this year will contract anywhere from 10% to 14%. We are going to have the worst recession since the Great Depression. It will make 2008 look like a flesh wound. And yet the bounce in the S&P500 looks rather V-shaped at the moment. Is it worth throwing good money after bad on this 'collapse'? Or is there nothing the Fed (and its friends from Blackrock Inc) can't 'fix' with a few extra trillion dollars (and counting). Let's see what follows this 50% retracement. I will give you THE ONE reason this will not be a "V" recovery. Not going to guarantee stocks won't "V" here and there as Venezuela did. The reason is DEBT. Debt killed the economy, killed the country, and killed any semblance of capitalism long ago. The debt was THE problem in '08-'09, and what did they do! Printed up a whole load and handed it out. Debt is the problem now, and what have they done? Made LOANS available to anyone and everyone. Debt is like putting lead weights on a runner. Sooner or later, he falls over from exhaustion and is no longer able to run. Debt is like a parasite sucking the blood out of you. Once the parasite becomes too big, and you can't produce enough blood to overcome its consumption, you die. All they have done is to increase the size of the debt exponentially. Many of you still don't understand that MONEY is DEBT in our system. If you have not watched my videos where I explain how money is debt, please do so. And watch it over and over until you understand exactly what is happening. Printing and loaning will not bring back any economy, but you can bet it will kill it. In 2008 the problem was peak debt. And it's only gotten worse by orders of magnitude. Governments have learned nothing. Let's be honest here. All debt-backed fiat monetary systems rely totally on trust and optimism. Once the FED was established in 1913, we were "on the road to serfdom." Hopefully, you've read it (and Brave New World too). The only question is: have we reached our Minski moment? Not, if we're optimistic, work hard, take personal responsibility, establish sound money, say based upon real things like gold or other commodities. Will this happen? Are you rolling around on the ground laughing? There is another way we could have taken: that of Sweden. That is our control case in this giant economic experiment of shutting down the economy for the flu. The country that didn't do that. Sweden, unlike most Western countries, is not doing a lockdown. They have banned gatherings of more than 50 people and gave Swedes some basic instructions for flu avoidance, but restaurants, shops, schools, and pretty much everything remains open. Experts don’t like that. Experts want everyone locked up in their homes and the economy burning. The only V in this recovery will be as in "V is for Venezuela." This Economic Collapse began BEFORE the pandemic!! The Fed began to drop interest rates back to 0% from only 2.5% during January of 2019, BEFORE the virus. The Fed began Not QE4 during the Repo market freeze up during September of 2019, BEFORE the virus!! The Fed is going to blame the virus for this Economic Collapse. The Fed, ECB, IMF, BIS, and other Central Banks ARE THE VIRUS!!!!! After 2008, The Fed just dropped interest rates down to 0% for ten years, and printed TRILLIONS in QE to Infinity!!! The Fed is manipulating all markets and destroying our monetary system!! It's not V-shaped. It's two-fingers-shaped. V shape only for the rich. The Poor: Will become dirt poor. The middle class: Will become poor. The Upper middle class: Will become middle class. Rich would like to be called Master from now on. It's going to be an M shaped recovery. Right now, we're at the top of the first leg. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Even before Coronavirus, the economy was doomed to fail. Job growth that was limited to low paying part-time service industry jobs, taxes cut for the rich, CEOs, giving themselves record bonuses, more money spent on tax buybacks than hiring workers, no investment in smaller communities, etc. This is What do you get when you put the central banking cabal in a blender with the CIA. GLOBAL DIABOLICAL DYSTOPIA. In which there's absolutely ZERO need for functioning markets. In fact, this is just the start. This push for "GLOBAL DIABOLICAL DYSTOPIA" is exactly what is happening. America, Land of the Brave Home of the Free, mist be shown as a Police State then the others will fall in line when this is finished, if those who are orchestrating this Dystopia are successful, we will have the same freedom a Chicken in his cage or a Pig in his pen has! They use this virus to coverup a 50-year Ponzi scheme that was about to collapse in the peak of the baby boomer retirement, that happens to be right now. Make sure the baby boomers can't get the wealth out of their houses because it was the Ponzi scheme money that they stole from their children anyway. Then hyperinflate the currency to get the rest of the fake money back from anyone that had savings or investments. Only the cash-rich will qualify to buy homes, scoop the defaulted assets up and rent them out to collect the UBI that is going around. Taxes, food, rent, and gas will skyrocket. Nobody is safe. This is economic Darwinism; anyone that was paying attention could see this coming a mile away. It’s designers to fail! It not about recovery. It’s about transferring wealth and profiting off of default swaps and hedge funds! The great economy that never was. We are already in The Great Depression 2.0. ALL the numbers have been fudged, and if Americans knew the real numbers, they'd "faint out of fear." All the health crisis did was to bring it in the spring instead of the fall. Look at the millions who were behind on their credit card, mortgage, and car loan payments. A "V-shaped" economy will not be possible until the country shifts from a house of cards service-based economy to a manufacturing one. That will require people willing to pay MORE for products made in the USA and for companies to be willing to gamble that they will. That will take years. Or a major war. A month or so, I was ridiculed for saying there would be food shortages this summer. I hope that people who live in houses are turning their backyards and front yards into mini-farms. And I hope, instead of buying x-box games, gadgets and sending strangers online money for posing in their undies, use that money to stock and re-stock your pantry and get some home gym equipment. The main thing is not to be duped into believing things will return to "normal" in 2020 or 2021 or 2022. There is nothing, absolutely nothing supporting a return to the old normal. Deficit spending has never been sustainable. There can be no recovery until the debt is either paid off or forgiven. I'm not very hopeful about the second part happening for most folks. Debt is slavery, and that is exactly where the elites want the rest of us to be. People forget there are TWO economies. One for the rich 1% and the other for everyone else. The rich will get a V-shaped recovery paid for by taxpayers. The probable scenario is that we hump along in lockdown for a couple of months, open up for a few weeks until rates start to show a modest increase in a few densely-packed urban areas, then get locked down again, for years. Of course, the ongoing global depression will be steadily worsening in the background, and we'll probably be dealing with widespread civil unrest and hunger within a year or so, if not mass deaths and Mad Max anarchy. . The economy isn't going to come back. The casino of bankster-gambling capitalism is dead. This isn't a bear: it's a tiger. And the FED's getting eaten. Let the FED and the zombi corps and the banksters go bankrupt. We need a new system and, anyway, we're getting it, whether you like it or not. I guarantee you, most of those people who were laid off will not be coming back to work. People who weather the onslaught will be rewarded with higher compensation (as they should be if they can pick up the slack for 35 extraneous people), but by in large, tectonic shifts are already underway in how we work, consume and socialize. And god forbid Americans actually learn to start living within their means. Round the clock footage of food disturbances and other socio-economic ills manifesting in the streets should suffice in convincing SOME of these somnolent idiots to wake up and start saving more—Ruh-roh re consumption. New cars and phones are going to be luxuries for many going forward. Then there's debt service on this catastrophe, but that's a whole other story. END the FED!!! This was The Atlantis Report. 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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, June 20, 2020
👉A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns !!
👉A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns !!
A Dollar Crash is Inevitable, Dr. Stephen Roach Warns. The stronger dollar era may be on borrowed time. Stephen Roach, one of the world’s leading authorities on Asia, is worried a changing global landscape paired with a massive U.S. budget deficit will spark a dollar crash. “The U.S. economy has been afflicted with some significant macro imbalances for a long time, namely a very low domestic savings rate and a chronic current account deficit,” the former Morgan Stanley Asia chairman told CNBC’s “Trading Nation” on Monday. “The dollar is going to fall very, very sharply.” Roach predicts a 35% decline in the U.S. currency against its major rivals in the near future, citing increases in the nation’s deficit and dwindling savings. He added that the rise of China and the decoupling of the U.S. from its trade partners is likely to end the supremacy of the dollar as the world’s reserve currency. Dr. Roach is right that sooner or later, manipulating the dollar for our own purposes will come back to bite us. So much of the US prosperity these past decades has come from having the "reserve currency" with the willingness (now gone) to make sacrifices for the world order. The bottom line is that $4 trillion in stimulus has been created to deal with Covid-19. The national debt just passed $26 trillion (130% of GDP). When you create more money, its value must go down, unless other currencies are also being increased at the same rate. While Europe and Japan have also passed their own stimulus, they haven't created proportionally as much new money as the US. Meanwhile, China and Russia have so far refrained from using unconventional fiscal policies. Russia's government debt as a percentage of GDP is actually among the lowest in the world. Not everyone is in the same boat. The US will one day have to face economic consequences for what it has been doing for decades. But what's going to replace the dollar? Certainly not the euro. The yuan? China is even more manipulative of the yuan than the US is of the dollar. China has no transparency, and it has massive internal yuan debt over two times its GDP that is its priority rather than supporting the yuan as the new world reserve currency. The dollar's appeal is that it is 'the cleanest shirt in dirty laundry.' But, it's going to take a lot more than structural change before the yuan can even begin to function as a reserve currency. When people get really scared they go to Swiss Francs or gold. Any asset that can be arbitrarily revalued at the whim of the Chinese Communist Party can only be speculative. The dollar can be replaced by a basket of convertible currencies. In fact, individual investors should do some of that through international diversification. The era of the U.S. dollar’s “exorbitant privilege” as the world’s primary reserve currency is coming to an end. The days of the dollar as the world's reserve currency are numbered. This does not bode well for the future of the U.S. We have lost our leadership position in many areas. The decline will be painful. Oil and gold are starting to trade in other currencies. When the US dollar is no longer the world standard, America is in real trouble. The Federal Reserve deserves a huge part of the blame. The dollar is losing value against all major currencies. We have almost no savings and mountains of debt. We can't pay our bills unless the FED monetizes it. The political situation is not helping either, and it will continue and accelerate the downfall with more political turmoil and uncertainty. Some countries that are heavy US Dollar reserve holders will find themselves losing a lot of purchasing/exchange value. Trump destroyed confidence in the US, and he has alienated a ton of countries, including allies. China and Russia have already started trading oil in a non-dollar currency. If there's an alternative, other countries are certainly open to pursuing and using it. SDRs which were created by the IMF is a basket of currencies, albeit with the US dollar as the main currency. But that can change. With all that is going on in the US, more countries will look somewhere else. What's the dollar's future now that the Fed created an additional $5 trillion in just the last few months! This is an election year. The Fed could bail out every state, city, corporation, and pension plan even if it costs $50 trillion. We are going to use dollar bills as toilet paper within five years. Probably in three years. When the fed is printing trillions of dollars a month, something will eventually need to give. In the 1980s, the total debt was around 1 trillion. We are now adding that much each month to both the fed balance sheet and the national debt. Zimbabwe here we come. The dollar is a dead currency walking. With the Fed now creating more dollars in a month than they used to do in a year, we're going to have hyperinflation like Zimbabwe or Weimar Germany or Venezuela. Massive money printing always leads to hyperinflation. I expect the dollar to be dead within three years. China has been making deals all over the world to trade with other countries in the Chinese currency. The banknote known as the dollar was placed in a coffin by Nixon. Removing even the idea of the gold backing the currency spelled its death. It has been buried six feet ever since. All fiat eventually goes to zero. As the US continues to pump phony money, eventually we will be papering our walls with it. The Ruble and the Deutschmark at their lowest come to mind. First, the dollar falls, then rampant inflation kicks in. The US has done a magnificent job with the smoke and mirrors while debt keeps rising. Now the rest of the world is waking up to the fact that they might not be able to pay back all the loans. In principal, US dollars should lose 50% of its value by 2025 due to infinite QE that will have printed close to $20T by then. But, the strength of a currency is relative. The competitors of the US Dollar, such as the Euro, GBP, and Yen, are in a far worse state than the dollar. If you put $1 in a T-bill in Jan 2000 and held that until Jan 2015 before cashing it in, accounting for interest paid, taxes on that interest, and the currency devaluation over those 15 years, you would have just 75 cents of the original buying power of that dollar left. Investing in the US is a BAD financial decision. The rest of the world is waking up to that realization. The US dollar today has just 2 cents the purchasing power it did in 1950. When it finally loses its World Reserve status, it will jump from $1500 per oz of gold to $30,000 per oz of gold within a year. And the US will become just another 3rd world debtor nation. The dollar is as dead as the USSR ruble or the ancient Greek souvlaki. If you have any, you should rid yourself of them forthwith. You should hold your dollars in other assets and convert them when needed. Don't just let your dollars sit there in your bank account because that's where the damage will be done. Every other asset will go up, some much greater than others. The stock market has turned into a high-interest savings account; you hold it in there and convert when dollars are needed. Stocks will not keep up with inflation, but its better than dollars in a bank account. Commodities will outperform stocks, but it's useless trying to hold physical bushels, bales, or drums. That's why gold is the easiest commodity to deal with; $500,000 in gold can fit in a sock drawer. The dollar has failed twice before in our nation's history. Once after the revolution and again after the civil war. It's about to fail again. Expect your wheelbarrow that's hauling around all of your dollars will be worth far more than the dollars themselves. Expect a 15:1 reverse split on the dollar with a return to the gold standard. The last time our dollar was worth 100 cents was back in 1933. If you peg the purchasing power of the 2020 dollar to the 1933 dollar, the 2020 dollar's purchasing power will look like this .001. We are $26 trillion in National debt alone. States are in debt. State pensions are grossly underfunded by $1 Trillion. Personal debt is skyrocketing. The groundwork was laid at least since 08 when the last crash happened. China and Russia made agreements with hundreds of countries and not just insignificant ones, like England and Australia, to trade with their own currencies and bypass using the dollar. OPEC countries have been doing the same thing. Eventually, the dollar will fail. It’s inevitable. All fiat currencies fail. What’s next? Who knows? It could be a basket of currencies using special drawing rights from the IMF. More than likely, it will be digital, no more paper money. If ANY country on earth decides to just print dollars, FLOOD the world with paper money, then why work or waste time producing goods. There is a reason why China, Russia, Europe, BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) are all deciding to use different currencies besides the US dollars. The US is dead broke and held up by countries that lend it money by buying US treasury bonds and bills, and at the same time, the dollar grows in strength, indicating a strong US economy. This is further evidence of a broke system. There will be an intervention, and then the dollar will eventually fall to an appropriate level, approaching zero. Then the dung will really hit the fan. Our monetary system is based on inflation. The greater shame is very few of us realize that we also are taxed on that inflation. Think capital gains. What a scam. "It is well enough that people of the nation do not understand our banking and monetary system, for if they did, I believe there would be a revolution before tomorrow morning." Henry Ford. I'm afraid 95% of Americans are too dumb to get it. Slave away at the 8-5 their entire lives for peanuts and get taxed at 50% while the FED "creates" trillions from nothing. No work or productivity, just money for nothing. The biggest scam of the last century, and still going strong today. Of course, for most in the USA, ignorance is bliss. Endlessly printing a currency may solve things in the short term, but long term, it causes serious damage to the value of that currency. This has been proven countless times in history. Now, do I think that the US Dollar is going to suddenly crash in value overnight, leaving us all in some doomsday financial apocalypse? Of course not. It is still a (generally) strong currency and the world reserve currency. Despite that, no fiat currency is invincible to endless printing. Eventually, the value WILL come down relative to other currencies, and things WILL shift...over time. How long that takes is anyone's guess. Hedge your bets. You'd be smart to keep at least some money in harder assets with limited supply. The good news a crash in the dollar will make America manufacturing and good, more attractive. If the dollar crashes, then all incentive to import stuff that was cheap will be gone. And stuff made in the USA will look inexpensive to the rest of the world. And the cycle continues. The dollar is being squeezed right now because of the sheer amount of dollar-denominated debt in the world (which tends to happen when you are the reserve currency of the world in such a globalized economy in the age of the internet). The danger to the dollar is that there isn't enough of them, of which everyone defaults, and something replaces it. I expect something similar to Bretton Woods to happen again, be the dollar pinned to Gold or Bitcoin or something. The deficits and money printing isn't serving the American people. It's serving the dollar backstop of the global economy. Global elites are getting ready and using the virus as an excuse to introduce a new reserve currency based on a basket of currencies and hopefully some gold too. "What currency would you buy and hold for the next 50 years?" Absolutely none. At 2% yearly inflation, your holding would be worth 63% less after 50 years. The US Dollar is programmed to devalue at 2% a year. In fact, the economy could not survive without that induced devaluation. One hundred ten years of data from Macrotrends indicates silver appreciates at 4.3% per annum with the volatility that creates income opportunities for selling covered calls. Using an ETF like SLV, the metal indeed becomes a virtual currency, liquid enough to use. The reason silver certificates were pulled in 1963 was that the commodity value in a silver dollar for the first time rose above $1. It surpassed $1.33/oz in that year ( a silver dollar is 75% silver). It's now $17/oz. That should be all you need to know about how our monetary system works. Buy gold and end the FED, the dollar is being turned into toilet paper! Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Consumer spending makes up 70% of the USA economy. Most of that spending is on goods we import, which means other people work to make them, some of it is good, but we don't invent and build anything to put our people to work. With COVID 19 mishandling, the spending is quite down to food mostly. The stock market paper gains are included in the economy, but most stay in the hands of very few people. It was decided back in 2008 that money has no actual value, so any saving not in the stock market produces ZERO income for their owners. Our governments have been lowering taxes for the rich while neglecting to improve the infrastructure, health/safety, education, and job training in a changing world economy, stuff that would benefit the American people. Politics has been about so-called social issues that make no difference in people's lives, all about ABORTION, GUNS, RELIGION, AND HATRED FOR IMMIGRANTS. NOW the chickens have come to roost. The U. S. can only make a new currency by default. Its bonds would become as poisonous as those of Argentina. Interest rates would soar. As America funds itself by borrowing money, social programs and public services would collapse, and the military would dwindle away. It would go into immense poverty, because it is a nation of consumers, and has little real wealth. Manufacturing has all gone abroad. America lives by devouring the world's goods in exchange for worthless paper dollars, which were forced upon humanity by brutality and fraud. Once the dollar goes to zero, America is nothing. What is worse, its destruction will be blamed on capitalism rather than socialism, so that all efforts to rebuild will be futile. The dollar being the world's reserve currency, allows the USA to run trillion-dollar deficits because it exports its inflation to the world, and the world absorbs it as the increasing population needs more reserve currency to conduct its business every year. That pretty well eats up the extra dollars the Feds keep printing each year to finance our federal deficits. If we were say Greece, the currency and country would have imploded decades ago, just like Greece did when it tried to run continuous deficits. The problem is our presidents, including Trump, are trying to use the dollar as a political weapon on countries like Iran, which will give countries a reason to use another currency to settle debts. China, Russia, and India are working on such a currency, When an alternative is available, the US dollar will implode, and the USA will be in a recession worse than 1929. Of course, it will fall because what goes up must come down eventually.No kidding! The Fed keeps adding zeroes to bank screens and buying stocks and bonds while propping up hedge funds. It is called the REPO market. In case of a default, The stock market and housing bubbles would deflate, causing losses of up to 90%. Pensions would be wiped out. All social programs would be cut. The price of goods and services would soar because there would no longer be a strong dollar to buy them with. The dollar would plummet in value. Unemployment would be lasting and horrific. And capitalism, instead of socialist central banking, would take the blame for it all, leading, possibly, to decades of misery under socialism. This is America's fate if it defaults. If it doesn't default, it has, at best, a few years longer before hyperinflation takes hold, and has to default anyway. Because, by this point, only tens of trillions per annum can keep yields sufficiently down for the system to function. They have tapered liquidity to $1.5 trillion per annum, and stocks are already slipping into a crash. It isn't enough. Food prices are rising because rather than the last 39 years of the Fed, creating credit and handing it to hedge fund managers and congress. Creating asset price inflation and runaway growth in medical spending and what amounts to welfare, corporate, and otherwise, new credit-money was handed to Joe Sixpack. You can't violate Say's Law with impunity. Creating purchasing power by any means OTHER than production simply increases the amount of money chasing whatever is in the marketplace. It doesn't add to what is available for purchase. Taken to the extreme, you have the situation in the USSR where people had rubles, but the shelves were bare. This is what flooding a nation with credit-created-from-nowhere produces. Under FIAT money, money was debt, so debt was wealth. People forgot that an IOU is nothing until it's paid-back. We now have a world drowning in "wealth" that is nothing but IOU's that depends on all other IOU's performing, when mathematically we long ago passed the point where this was true. All that "wealth" is an illusion. So is training people to forget that it's not about money-in-hand, it's about the product available for purchase. Goods availability is likely to crater in the next couple years, and if politicians attempt to make people whole by creating trillions in credit, all it will do is crush the average man's standard of living even more. Did the Trump administration open Pandora's Box by seizing the Fed's credit creation system? Only time will tell. For nearly 40 years, we witnessed credit-inflation on an unprecedented scale, but because it flowed into asset markets (including the value of debt itself), no one cared. We all seemed to get rich. Now, much of that wealth (in the form of debt, and in asset prices rationalized by its wealth-effect existence) is likely to disappear (mostly chaotically), but goods availability may plummet as well, meaning that prices could rise or fall, but affordability will plunge for many things. Oh, how the sky darkens with chickens coming home to roost. On second thought, that must be locusts. Currency collapses are usually followed by war. In the case of a collapse of a major global currency, that would mean global war. China / India may be the flashpoint. India, with the support of the US. China, with the support of Russia. The current system is being run to the ground by design, so the Fed can issue in a NEW system- henceforth why the Fed is "burning up dollars" to buy it all. We have been stolen into darkness by the evil greed of people for whom we voted. May I suggest Water, Food, Lead, Silver, and Gold in this order. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. Leave me a comment. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, June 19, 2020
👉U.S. Stock Market The Biggest Bubble in History About to Pop !!
👉U.S. Stock Market The Biggest Bubble in History About to Pop !!
U.S. Stock Market: The Biggest Bubble in History About to Pop !! Most of us seasoned investors agree the market is overpriced. The problem is the Feds are levitating the market at the expense of the dollar. My concern is the cash I’m holding may be devalued through inflation. Wall Street, once the vehicle to invest in great companies that were the bedrock of the American economy, is now a casino. A fantasy land dominated by a few monopolies like companies that don't even employ that many people. And are actually changing American society and politics in some case for the worse. I remember the Internet stock boom in the late 90s - that irrationally exuberant stock run made a lot of people very wealthy. You need to stay humble and not assume it will just keep going up and up. Enjoy the ride while it lasts, but be ready to go to cash when it turns. The market is propped up by the fed and is way overvalued. Time has a way of melting off the fat. This is not retail buying that moves a market. There are 20 billion in customer assets at Robinhood. That is not going to move an S&P or market that is over 30 trillion. It’s more likely to be the federal retirement funds with 6 trillion in assets. This was a fake market since 2008. The market is nothing more than a casino now. Prior to fed intervention, one could weigh value based on profitability. Now we have a double problem. The tech mentality of "profitability is irrelevant to long term value," the federal reserves' notion of "go long, I got your back," coupled with "it's going to be a V-shaped recovery." Make this a "tails you win and heads I lose" market. Based on all of this, the market should never go down and go to the moon! Let's see how long we can defy gravity. We haven't even seen the worst of this Recession/Depression yet, and people are acting like it's over. Just wait until the thousands of bankruptcies and the layoffs from those bankruptcies. A second round of COVID in the fall and things could be worse than any point in this country going back to the Civil War. Imagine how missed up things will be around October/September when panics usually happen. It will represent an accelerated accumulation of wealth by the top 0.01% of the economy, as they use Fed money to buy up everything on the cheap. I get the feeling that this is exactly what is supposed to happen. Sold my stocks for a profit, I don't trust the market at all right now. Not losing money is more important than missing out. The market is in a bubble that will eventually pop. With that being said, I do not short stocks. In the past, I've tried that by shorting,sick and dying companies that were basically on life support. To my amazement, they were able to survive for many years after the short positions. There are many examples of zombie companies outlasting their balance sheets - for example, look at Kmart, it was like a 35-year death. It is impossible to effectively short in a market where bankruptcy signals "BUY." I've taken a little break from this stock market. Saying that the market is in La-la land is actually an understatement; Irrational exuberance and the madness of crowds. So I've cashed in almost all my chips and will be relaxing in the cocktail lounge for a while. At least when everything finally crashes to hell, it'll start to make sense again, and that shouldn't be too far away regardless of what new magic tricks the Fed tries to pull out of its hat. The markets reflect Washington's largess to big business, not the economy, as usual. There were times in the past when political policies coming out of Washington were the complete opposite of what they are today. They encouraged savings in Banks, encouraged investing in CDs fixed guaranteed income FDIC we're generally 4 or 5 % interest was normal. Not everybody has the time or wants to put their money at risk in a Ponzi scheme; even If the Fed is ready and standing on the sidelines with the printing presses warmed up. Political policies and the FED need to do more to offer those baking opportunities of the past. This is a rigged system to benefit the wealthiest, and it just plain needs to stop. This is what people should be marching on Washington over and protesting about around the country. Fair treatment, a living wage, a chance to save for your retirement without risk. It used to be that way, but they've rigged it against the majority of the population. The main street is struggling. We have no leadership in Washington. The virus is still running rampant. Unemployment claims keep rising, and the market is green and happy. Huge disconnect. Something unusual happened yesterday (Thursday). The Fed’s balance sheet DECREASED in size by $74Billion, the first time there has been a decrease since February (Fed’s latest round of COVID QE started in early March), and the LARGEST decrease in many, many months. This situation has to be monitored closely in the upcoming weeks, especially if you are a QE-betting “bull.” The free money might be drying up. Investors and speculators are buying with one belief FED, and the Fed is desperate now. Is the market overvalued? Yes, more than any time in history. Debt is the highest it has ever been. Earning is turning down even before the virus, speculations are rampant, equity issuance is massive, six stocks are now worth 7.2 trillion 25% of market cap and bigger than entire Europe. What can go wrong!. NASDAQ is now bigger than the entire world's market caps. 46 Million unemployed, 200 Million worldwide, 900 Million inmigrant workers around the world. US markets are the most overvalued in the world.!! THE DEBT: the US federal debt is now 26 Trillion, year ends with 29 Trillion, tax collected 3.2 Trillion. 800% of the tax collection 140% of the US GDP. 325% OF CHINA GDP, 1000% of India's GDP. CORPORATE DEBT: 17 TRILLION. Most companies cannot even service the debt and need to borrow to at interest and old debt. Fed's help is useless. Mortgages, credit cards, auto, education loans, etc.: 30 Trillion. When will it be paid? This year along, Companies will issue: 2.4 to 2.5 TRILLION; that's about India's Gdp, the 5th largest GDP. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT: 8 Trillion. About 80% of Chinese GDP. The market is not operating normally. It is supported by the Fed, which leaves multiple questions. When will the fed stop? Can the fed stop? How deep does the disconnect go in all of the asset classes? What happens when the fed does stop, and all the asset classes correct at once? Beyond all of that is an election year and possible future issues with corona-virus. And the fed is supposed to be independent of politics, meaning the election year should not impact fed decisions. Can investors sue the government for market manipulation? All the interesting questions. All have a profound impact on the stock market for the next six months. Must be time for more taxpayers money into the Wall Street Casino. The fed has already thrown away about $4 trillion, trying to keep billionaires from having any losses. It's high time for the fed to let them eat each other. As it is, the taxpayers are eating their losses and getting ZERO from their gains. A pullback from the fed will put the market down to about 6k, and I'm more than good with that since it will be a TRUE market correction. 1. The Fed is the de facto central bank of the world. When its policy targets its own economy without considering the spillover effect, the Fed is “very likely to overdraft the credit of the dollar and the U.S.” 2. The pandemic may persist for a long period of time, and countries keep throwing money at the problem with a diminished impact. “It is recommended that you think twice and reserve some policy space for the future.” 3. There is no free lunch. Watch out for inflation. 4. The Financial markets are disconnected from the real economy, and such distortions are “unprecedented.” It’s going to be “really painful” when the policy withdrawal starts. The debt balloon is going to explode! The fastest solution is to let capitalism work. In 2009 with too big to fail, we just delayed the inevitable and allowed it to get worse. Currently, bailing out companies and individuals is only going to make it worse. We are just kicking the can down the road and not addressing any of the issues. Letting big businesses fail will result in the largest wealth transfer from the 1% to the 99%. It will be painful, but a quick and strong recovery will happen. It is when everyone says that the market can't go down that the trouble starts. There are now two sets of fundamentals, and both are too fluid. You cannot put enough concrete into the wet sand to stabilize anything. Credit is killing us on all levels. Even the printing presses will sink in this quagmire. The medicine is worse than the disease in this case, and that is not addressing the coronavirus. Pay now or later. Later is going to hurt badly. There will be a lot of pains coming. Only time can tell. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. And the bubble just keeps inflating! They simply cannot let it pop without the financial system imploding. The Fed continues to increase its direct holdings of US treasury securities and has now more than doubled its holdings since last summer bringing the current total to $4.169 trillion. This is what happens when the Feds implicitly state they will protect any downside. The stock market now in no way reflects the free market or the state of the economy. It's now a cash-grab funded by the federal government. All stock market losses are now socialized. It's literally impossible to lose money on stocks until the entire federal government collapses. The stock market is going to go up now, no matter what. Yesterday the Fed announced they would start buying individual stocks to prevent a crash. That means it's literally impossible to lose on the stock market now. If your stocks start to go down, the Fed will buy them up at the full price. The money printing frenzy is now a race to the bottom, and whilst China is no 'pin-up model,' the people in the US and other fiat debt-driven economies have been led a sorry dance. We all know it doesn't end well, and when the music stops, the reality will kick in. All Ponzi Schemes eventually collapse, and so will the FEDs! For me, its the increasing frequency and almost desperation of the Fed's moves. Powell made his statement about 0% interest rates till 2023, and gold and silver shot up vertical UNTIL suddenly COMEX gets an injection of more paper silver and gold ounces than were added in all of last year. Then, not a week later, Jerome Powell comes out again and announces the buying of individual bonds, meaning the Fed has to die before zombies like Ford will be allowed to fail. But they did it with the public reason of providing liquidity when there wasn't any (you know, in a world with no reserve requirement AND a 0% Fed interest loans...) Something bad is coming, and I get the feeling that the officers are filling a boat with gold before they leave us to die on a sinking ship. Something gotta give. All inevitable and pre-planned, the dollar bubble can continue forever until it meets a totally unexpected disaster: demand destruction through a Pandemic! The stock market is in disconnection when savers get zero percent interest. The fed knows it too. They are propping the market up. Expect a huge crash when the cocaine fed induced high goes through withdrawal. Precious Metals will moon if stocks crash again, it might take a while after the crash, but they usually are a good investment during a financial crisis. Something's brewing. At least I have the feeling that there is. What exactly, well, that is speculation. My belief is the Illuminati (agents) are about to pull the pin on the world banking system, then quickly institute a digital dollar minus all the debt. Rebase the dollar in other words. In this way, China won't be able to hold dollars and buy into the West. The West will then be locked together into a common digital system with the dollars as the converting/transacting/valuing benchmark currency, Giving other currencies fiscal flexibility. Other games will take place around this momentous event. It's the final human enslavement and human control using full electronic money. Plus, they will tie ownership of everything from auto's to gold, silver, diamonds, property doesn't matter. You will first need to accept the mark of the beast. Don't accept it, and loose all and be reduced to the status of the modern leper. I am feeling worried, as I struggle to envision that perpetual negative interest rates - which are coming - will simply be implemented into our current environment where stocks move up on a rod pointing to the heavens. So far, I thought that the implementation of negative interest rates, which will then become the "new normal," will happen after some sort of calamity. A calamity that is actually being felt by people, so they will see their central banks and what they are doing as their saviors. However, it doesn't have to play out like this or even similar to what I thought it would. What's actually going to stop the interlinked central banks of the world to simply just do it? Pretty much nothing. No president, no authority, no nothing. So why haven't they already? I don't know. Hence I'm waiting for a bang. If and when? Who knows. At this point, they are so many places that can create a massive sell-off. Too many holes created. My view is that it is going to be intervention-program-exhaustion. Two or more major central banks will have to deal with their own balance sheets and will have to come up with a way to cover their dollar allocations. That can be as early as mid-summer. From the consumer disposable income end, once the $600 a week is gone, and there is not renewal, it will take three weeks to start to see results, that is the end of August. That can be another trigger to reduce risk in July. By then, the Fed and Congress will have created another $3.7 trillion in expenditures. At that point, the number-crunching will start. There is no question that something will have to adjust. No cow will be sacred, Medicare, Social Security, etc. Pick any program you will see and cut it in a form or another of at least 4% to 5%. That will allow in 10 years to cover the overprinting during this period. My guess is the moment that the election in the US starts to have a clearer outcome, positions will be adjusted. Until then, what we have is. 1) By the end of July, The Fed will have done global coordination, which amounts to the equivalent of a 1/3 year of global GDP. At that threshold would be a checkpoint to see program exhaustion. 2) Globally pension funds will be looking for an allocation of reduced risk that can trigger another fast reaction. 3) Bankruptcies start to trickle, and they start to affect CDOs. So let's do some brainstorming. Please listen and digest the following Pieces of info. 1. Federal debt to GDP is accelerating an unsustainable pace. Within the last six months, it has risen 30% to 130% ratio. That's a pace that we believe cannot continue, and those debts can only be drawn down through cashflow income, aka money printing. So eventually, we will either have to print more money or collect more money. 2. The price of oil has collapsed in terms of the US Dollar. Historically America has relied on foreign nations needing to buy the primary input to the economy, oil, in US Dollar from abroad. As of late 2017, china now provides Renminbi denominated oil contracts. These contracts currently make up 10.8% of the global oil volume. Something interesting happened when oil went negative in US Dollars, however. Renminbi contracts DIDN'T. They only lost about 50% of their value, dropping to $20 per barrel. This had been a trend ongoing since repo issues started happening in September. However, the US Dollar had slowly been decoupling from Renminbi prices based on the exchange rate. Even more interesting is that they are now back to equal. Within two months, the contracts completely reversed a decoupling trend and are now priced exactly the same. Why is this important? This signifies that globally US Dollar was being spent elsewhere, the supply was contracting, and countries could literally afford less oil. Likely on debts by foreign corporations. Renminbi, however, was more liquid and more available, so companies who had access to it were buying oil in the Renminbi where they could. The fact that it is now equal is maybe even more interesting. It means the fed has managed to get enough dollars out into the global economy fast enough to stop that decoupling effect. 3. The fed is supposedly backing the market. They will buy domestic debts and clear up liquidity issues wherever they feel it is needed. This means shorting the domestic market is essentially off the table until this behavior ends. So, what dots can we connect? ‘My confidence is rising quite rapidly that this is, in fact, becoming the fourth real McCoy bubble of my investment career. The great bubbles can go on a long time and inflict a lot of pain, but at least I think we know now that we’re in one. And the chutzpah involved in having a bubble at a time of massive economic and financial uncertainty is substantial.’ That is Jeremy Grantham, co-founder and chief investment strategist at Boston-based money manager Grantham, Mayo, Van Otterloo & Co., offering up a stark warning to speculators driving the stock market to new heights amid the greatest pandemic of the past century. “This is really the real McCoy, this is crazy stuff,” said Grantham during a Wednesday afternoon interview on CNBC that appeared to knock some of the stuffing out of a market that had been drifting along listlessly on Wednesday. Reality versus Irrational Exuberance. When will the market embrace reality. When a system is failed and broken entirely, most people move along by scratching the old system and implement a new. That's how logic people used to deal with such things before. But now we have a bunch of people who basically all live in total denial, and are both deaf and blind. As long as the mad are running the asylums, anarchy will be part of the new normal, and when a new normal has become normal, nobody will remember how logic and sanity even worked. For anyone who is still bullish at this point, I have an honest question. By almost any indication, current stock prices have pretty much "priced in" an almost perfect recovery, whether it's from a genuine increase in economic activity or just more stimulus from the fed. So if the market is anticipating a best-case scenario, what could possibly drive it any higher in the near and medium-term? If profits magically recover as quickly as the market seems to hope, or if the fed injects more stimulus, the market is pretty much priced for that, being that it's barely off of its all-time highs. So what incentive is there to buy in right now? Are you buying in with the anticipation that the recovery will go well, but then the stock market will rocket even higher in response, and just permanently maintain this disconnect between price and earnings? This doesn't even get into the lunacy of the fact that the Fed is really advocating for a capitalist market that sustains itself just solely by money created out of thin air. And they consider that a rock-solid market and principle that you think is sustainable in the long term and worth investing in. The US corporations are bankrupt from issuing trillions of junk bonds. They are only being kept alive because the Fed is now buying junk bonds. Imagine living in a country where the central bank rewards and encourages incompetence. The fed is hyperinflating the markets. We’re living in a giant scam right now, folks. The banks and the fed are buying companies stocks as collateral and buying the markets entirely. Trillions of dollars being typed into existence in order to buy up every radioactively toxic piece of horse manure stock, loan, and corporate bond the Fed can get its hands on via BlackRock and Vanguard. We are spitting distance from the Federal Reserve buying individual stock shares at this point. Nothing fun or good is going to come of it, and it is going to screw the job market. Nothing good is going to come of the interventions we're seeing. Even if we manage to crab along for a few more years with no crash, it will represent an accelerated accumulation of wealth by the top 0.01% of the economy, as they use Fed money to buy up everything on the cheap. Don’t delude yourself; the market is only up because of the Fed. It's all funny money. The fed began QE again in September 2019, and since 26 March 2020, there is no reserve requirement. We're looking at a game where everybody loses except that some people get to start over with a huge amount of accumulated capital. Some people get to play a new game. Forty-four million Americans are out of work, but The stock market is ON FIRE!. The wealthiest 1% of Americans own 84% off of all stocks in America. It is totally disconnected and just a toy for the elite and government to play with The stock market is not based on anything anymore. If you ain't part of the elite, you're risking more than an arm and a leg right now. When Trump tweets about the stock market during the campaign donation season, he isn't doing it for the farmers in Nebraska. Investing in the market is like going to a casino. If you don't have skin in the game, don't play. The economy is a house of cards right now, and the stock is the only thing keeping Trump's reelection hopes alive. It's going to be fun reading all Trump's tweets once the Freedom of Information Act requests start rolling in. So much wealth may soon be driven to several bubble bursts where losses would be felt in myriads of business affected by COVID-19, where monetary easing may no longer be effective and the US dollar weakening. It is not the right time to invest in areas where the future markets are bleak. So much wealth may be lost along the way! The rich get richer, and the poor get poorer—just another day in the world economy. If the US Fed is effectively the central bank for the whole world, then the demise of the US dollar as the world reserve currency will probably come as a result of worldwide inflation caused by the unlimited printing of US dollars. Because people outside of the USA will not want to hold their savings in a currency that's losing its value relative to the goods and services that they can buy with this money. This hasn't yet happened in a significant way. But the US Fed is now printing money much more than ever before. And at the same time, the world production of goods and services has declined due to various restrictions and closures related to the Covid-19 pandemic. This combination of more money and fewer goods and services might spark worldwide inflation in US dollars and motivate people to stop holding their wealth in US dollars. We need more goods and services created. And the only way to do this is to encourage SAVING. By doing this, businesses can purchase better equipment, machines, more efficient labor, and increase their overall production, thus making everyone wealthier. (Remember how much better the industrial revolution made everything for commoners?). Our current system favors spending, spending in the market to make quick but risky gains, and by increasing inflation. What incentive do you have to save money if it losses it’s value second by second to inflation? This is why people buy stocks. Feds are buying corporation stocks to keep their scam afloat, plus the corporations are taking all the money from the government and firing and laying off everyone they can. It's fully automation now. Bonds, securities, essentially the US government now owns these mortgage-backed securities. Do they own the asset itself? No. Do they own the DEBT INCURRED BY THE ORIGINAL BUYER? Yes. That is precisely what they are buying, faulty loans for assets. So, in reality, it’s even worse than you think. They don’t even own the assets they’re paying for. They simply own the initial loan for the asset, and if they ever try to resell (which newsflash is their plan, they did the EXACT same in 08), they’ll get pennies on the dollar for what they paid for them. Kinda a proof that the stocks market is pure fakery controlled by private interest. When do we audit the bailout? How that's true the same charged to do the bailout are also charged to audit everyone. Merely a coincidence, though. While simultaneously creating inflation by printing more dollars to cover these buys. The bankers get this money first for price inflation hits. They use there newly gotten 0% interest bailout money to manipulate the market in their favor, then pass the inflationary losses over to the purchaser of goods. I.e., you and me. So, an institution that can print money independently from the public will can now also buy corporations up. And this proves that money is worthless. These “bailouts” extend to risky investments made by big banks as well. Investments these banks into foreign companies. Welcome to globohomo clown world. The American people have no idea what is really going on, and the gluttons at the Fed know this. So the charade continues until the last hand is dealt. When that happens is anyone's guess. Market timing is a bad strategy (one loses more than one gains). It's better to ride the ups and downs over a longer period of time than to try to guess and be wrong more than you are right. Tesla shorts re-learned that the painful way. And retards still think the stock market has any correlation to the real economy. Let's wait and see when the unemployment benefits dry up at the end of July, the PPP dries up, and the loan payment deferments end during summer. Hoard your cash people because everything's going on sale soon. There will be no V-shaped recovery. It's the banks buying massively toxic assets and creating money out of thin air, and now the FED just added the corporations to the party. They'll now directly buyback bonds from mega-corporations like they do with banks everyone is invited but you. The recovery is as fake as the whole country now. Enjoy the shit show while it lasts. The index may make all-time highs, but when the US dollar starts tanking, it won't mean much. This is always the sign of the last days of an empire; the first instance was the western Roman empire. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. Leave me a comment. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, June 18, 2020
Warning : Food Shortages Coming to America !!
Warning : Food Shortages Coming to America !!
The pandemic has caused an unprecedented worldwide economic shutdown, which has put an enormous amount of stress on global food supplies. And as the coronavirus continues to spread around the world, the United Nations is warning about global food shortages soon. The world you know is going to change dramatically and permanently. UN officials also predict soaring food prices as lockdowns in various countries slow down supply chains, and as some countries implement export restrictions to prevent domestic food shortages. Restrictions on movement have meant farmworkers are in short supply, and food is at risk of rotting in the fields. Fruit and vegetable farms in America rely on cheap foreign labor to harvest their crops. Restrictions on movement have meant farmworkers are in short supply, and food is at risk of rotting in the fields. Restrictions on movement across the world have meant vital farmworkers are in short supply, and now food is at risk of rotting in the fields. Meat prices are extremely high. Food hyperinflation has definitely kicked in. The price of steaks and chicken is through the roof. Now is the time to restock in prepping for the second wave. Don't worry about what OTHERS think of you. Here in America, stores still have plenty of food. But empty shelves have started to appear, and we are seeing spikes in food cost, especially meat. Meat processing facilities have been shut down all over America due to coronavirus, and this is starting to create some really annoying shortages. There is definitely a meat shortage. A lot of farmers may have to go out of business after being financially ruined during this crisis, and we will seriously miss that lost production capacity in the days ahead. The global food supplies are only going to get tighter and tighter. Now is the time to restock in preparation for the second wave. You are indeed on the verge of being too late. Food prices are skyrocketing. Those of you who turn your nose up at canned meat better rethink that quickly. For it is already getting difficult to find it for the third year in a row. Torrential rains have returned to many crop growing areas. So do not expect any relief from a bountiful harvest. The old standby of rice and beans will not work either, with the rice shortage in many areas, whether the food is unavailable or too expensive. The result is the same. Get essential while you can, and not just-food. The benefits of being a hunter/fisherman and having a garden become more evident. You need to become more self-sufficient people! Food shortages are looming, and the cost of food is going to rise even faster than it has been doing. And it isn't because of global warming or whatever other lies they tell you. It is, however, partly a side effect of the coronavirus. All around the world, food is in short supply. In rich western countries, starvation is not an imminent threat. But what we are seeing is an explosion of hunger that is absolutely unprecedented. All over America, people have been lining up “for hours” at America’s food banks so that they can be sure to get something before the supplies run out. The biggest food shortage will be in third world countries. The price of the world's most important staple food, rice, has risen by 70 percent in just a few months. Food prices in the United States have seen a historic jump and are destined to stay high and to go higher. There has been a lot of empty shelves at the grocery stores for weeks now, not only the can goods and freezer aisles but also the fresh meats. Absolutely forget about trying to pick up some disinfectant and toilet paper. Countries which have good food production are halting their exports. Vietnam, for example, has stopped exporting rice because they need their food supplies at home, and you can't blame them. All countries, all villages, all homes would do much the same. Processing plants and distribution centers all around the world have been severely disrupted by the coronavirus shutdowns. If one works on a farm or in a warehouse, for example, and shows coronavirus like symptoms; then the authorities often close down that farm or the warehouse. Huge crops of vegetables and fruit are being plowed into the ground, and tankers full of milk are being poured away. Millions of animals are being slaughtered and then buried or burnt because the supply chains have been shut down. America almost unbelievably is now importing beef because of the shortages there. Thousands of farmers can't get their crops picked, fruit, in particular, is likely to rot in the fields. Controls on transport have meant that there's been it's been difficult to move food from where it is to where there's a dearth. The unsurprising consequence of all this is that there's going to be a massive shortage of fruit and vegetables and so prices are going to rock it. The shortage is global, not local. All around the world, there are shortages of almost all foods. And other factors are going to ensure that the shortage gets worse. Rice and beans for a while won't do you too much damage. If and when the economy is allowed to stutter into action again, the price of oil will doubtless eventually rise because the existing supplies are diminishing rapidly, and most oil companies have pretty well given up expiration. The rising price of oil will mean that farming and transportation costs will rise, and that will also push up the price of food. There are several other explanations for what's already happened and for what's going to turn this into a perfect storm of food shortage. The other problem is locusts. Plagues of them have been traveling from Arabia into Africa. A plague of locusts can, in just a couple of days, eat their way through as much food as would keep the whole population of California going for a day. A swarm can lay a thousand eggs per square yard of land. And you can imagine what all those locusts are going to do to the world's food supplies. There are swarms of locusts wandering across Africa. And each swarm can cover 20 square miles. All the locusts do is breed, and eat. When they land on a tree, the combined weight will bring down large branches. Inevitably the health crisis that has been gripping the world has disrupted supplies of the chemicals for spraying. And the swarms of locusts are getting bigger and bigger and threatening food supplies in Africa, Arabia, and Asia. A swarm of locusts can strip a hundred acres in minutes. The economies of those countries affected are going to be destroyed. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Food will be scarce, and what there is will be unaffordable locally. The food shortages which are going to come will be biblical. Farms and warehouses and distribution centers can be closed down apparently legitimately when one worker test positive for the coronavirus or develops a mild symptom or two. The advice here will help my viewers is: do a little food stockpiling now so that you and your family will have a better chance to be strong and healthy. It isn't selfish; it's survival. If you have a garden and can grow favorite vegetables or fruit, that's probably a good idea. Get off the couch, get the garden tilled. Kale, cucumbers, tomatoes, potatoes, spaghetti squash, acorn squash, strawberries, bell peppers. At the beginning of the year, my guidance told me the greatest investments at this time are good soil, seeds, and clean water and air. Also, learning to forage and how to preserve—basically become as self-sufficient as possible! Now I know why. Hopefully, others can do the same, and we can all help in our communities. I stocked up on rice, lentils, pickles, tinned food, and loo rolls back in March because I saw what was happening around the world. I still have the stockpile and replenish it whenever I consume anything from it. I have around six months of food stocked. And I'm still stocking up. Everyone should always think ahead and plan. We also need better regulations and organization of the food supply and distribution. As a country, we definitely have transport issues and growing and harvesting issues. As Americans, we waste more food every day than it would take to feed most of the world for that day and maybe more. Just think about all the leftovers that get dumped every day. Fresh fruits and veggies that get tossed. Expiration dates pass on packaged meats. The farmers are letting produce rot, while we subsidize them. Does something seem rotten here! So, we have transport issues and growing and harvesting issues. In other words, there will be food shortages and rising prices. When the trucks stop rolling, it's time to panic. These are the realities of the supply chain: Sugar beets, rice, and corn all were hit very hard last year from excessively long freezing periods, where crops froze in the ground and could not be harvested, and later when there were excessive water and crops were not planted in time. Other crops have been hurt by excessive cold and wet weather in the last year too. Sometimes you just see a large price spike. Other times you see rationing, as it has been with some sugar and corn products this year. Also, flooding rain the past two growing seasons in the US. Hardly any crops were able to be planted last year in the midwest because of mud and standing water. The same thing is happening this spring. Add in how much food is now imported from other countries, and those ships are not coming into the ports. Add to that the fact that the FDA has decided not to issue any migrant worker visas. That means crops this year are going to sit there in the fields and rot unless Americans get out there and pick them. And yeah, some will, but will it be enough! You tell me, with all these things, and the shelter in place orders, do you really think the food supply is ok? I don't. Plus, the value of the dollar will decrease. And scarcity will inflate the price. The poor are really in trouble. There are no redundancies in the food processing industry; they have been eliminated in order to create the "Just in time" delivery system. Due to Lean Manufacturing and Just In Time Delivery, the food processing supply chain runs on the edge of failure when times are good. In reality, we have an "Almost Failing" delivery system. Just one little glitch, and the entire system falls apart. The pictures of empty shelves say it all! When food isn't making it to store shelves, it's a shortage of food, no matter the circumstances that lead to that result. Also, farmers are dumping milk and letting crops rot in the field. Have been hearing of cattle farmers possibly killing their herds and burying them under because of the situation of restaurants and schools being closed This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. Leave me a comment. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, June 17, 2020
👉National Debt Tops $26 Trillion - Powell Warns The Deficit is now Unsustainable !!
#theatlantisreport #usnationaldebt #usdebtclock 👉National Debt Tops $26 Trillion - Powell Warns The Deficit is now Unsustainable !!
National Debt Tops $26 Trillion - Powell Warns The Deficit is now Unsustainable !! America's national debt has been ballooning at an exponential rate during the last 15 years. But it has exploded out of control after COVID 19, adding around one trillion dollars more of debt each passing month. On Tuesday, the national debt pushed above $26 trillion. That's greater than all the national debts of Japan, China, France, Germany, The UK, India, Australia, and Russia all combined. Just 35 days ago, the debt eclipsed $25 trillion. And 28 days before that, the national debt stood at a mere $24 million. The U.S. National Debt hit a new record high of $26 trillion last Tuesday on the 9th of June. In the last 63 days, we've increased the national debt more than two trillion dollars. And if nothing changes, if we stay on the same trajectory, by the end of this fiscal year, the debt will be over twenty-eight trillion, maybe pushing 29 trillion dollars in national debt. Because our structural deficit this year is going to reach somewhere around six trillion dollars. In other words, we will have spent six trillion dollars more than we brought in in revenues. The ramifications of this kind of national debt are going to be catastrophic. The national debt will exceed the gross domestic product by about a hundred and ten percent. When that happens, we must confront it, we will have to face the ramifications of it. It took the nation 210 years to run the National Debt up to $2 trillion. It took exactly two months and two days to add the most recent $2 trillion, Peter Schiff said in a recent tweet. The country’s gross debt has now crossed the historic $26 trillion mark for the first time. This almost inconceivable number comes after several months of inflationary measures by the Federal Reserve, which has seen the dollar supply increase dramatically. Today Wednesday, 17th of June, a week later, it has jumped again to $65 billion. The U.S. National Debt was $25 trillion just last month in May and $24 trillion in April. The tremendous increase in debt is due to the response to the coronavirus pandemic, which has only sped up the ongoing global economic crisis. Prior to COVID-19, the U.S. debt had already been growing exponentially for the last six-plus years. In Oct 2019, it was $23 Trillion, in May 2019, it was $22T. In Mar 2018, it was $21T, Sept 2017; it was $20T, Feb 2016; it was $19T, Jan 2015, it was $18T, and Jan 2014, it was $17T. This is not healthy for our overall global economy. The U.S. debt level is growing faster and faster every year, and now even every month. The exponential curve is getting steeper and steeper, if not already out of control; it soon will be. Meanwhile, the federal government just set a record for the biggest budget deficit in any fiscal year — with four months left to go. The US deficit soared to $1.9T for the first eight months of the fiscal year. $3.7 trillion deficit per year, is just over seven times the total of Sweden's GDP. In May, the gap between what the government spent and what it collected hit $424 billion, more than twice the level it was at one year ago. Revenues in May totaled $175 billion — down $58 billion from last year, the result of a decline in wages and overall economic activity. May’s budget shortfall pushed the fiscal 2020 deficit to $1.9 trillion, according to the latest monthly US Treasury Department statement. Fed's Powell warned Congress during his semi-annual testimony that the U.S. budget deficit, which is expected to hit $3.7 trillion this year, is on an unsustainable path. The previous budget deficit record for any year was $1.4 trillion in the Fiscal Year of 2009. Before this year, the federal government had run deficits over $1 trillion in just four fiscal years, all during the Great Recession. The Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget estimated the debt would grow by $4 trillion this year. As interest payments rise, the government will either have to collect more taxes, cut spending, or print money. Remember that as interest rates increase - so does the nominal debt. Someone has to pay for the tax cuts, and guess what? It ain't gonna be the major stockholders who benefited out of it. If interest rates begin to rise, the cost of holding on to that debt becomes more expensive. If interest rates were to be at 4%, that debt would begin draining money from other resources. We will be paying over 400 billion just on interest on the debt. With the ridiculously low-interest rates. If interest rates were 3-5% percent, interest on the debt could become the largest expenditure. Debt eating up all of our income tax payments. No wonder our prosperity is declining. We really can't keep going in this way; it's unsustainable. And that just means the debt is growing faster than the economy, so debt-to-GDP is rising. That is, by definition, unsustainable." The Fed is largely to blame for the debt problem. They lower interest to boost housing and the stock market when wages and real growth has not happened for YEARS. So, people take out higher loans. So people go into debt, spend less on other things, and wages are still low (in comparison), so Tax revenue is just as low. Hence THE DEBT BOMB. And Democrats and Republicans want to give away more free money! The debt load is expected to rise to 125 percent of GDP over the 20 years. That's higher than the US debt-to-GDP ratio during World War II. But perhaps the most striking aspect of the growing debt is the fact there really is no end in sight, and the US has no chance of ever paying off the debt. The national debt is a huge concern, not for our government, but for us. The Fed can just keep printing money and inflate the debt away. For us, though, it just makes things cost more, and our buying power dwindles to nothing. Look at Venezuela and Argentina. Think that is isolated to third world countries? We are on the same fiat monetary system. Just because other countries want to own our debt doesn't make our debt/dollar safe. One day that will change. China is circumventing the dollar by allowing countries to buy oil with Yuan convertible to gold. Why would you buy a dying US dollar to buy oil when you can have a real asset like gold? The problem is that we are stuck in our debt-based economy. If we don't increase the debt, the economy collapses. The National Debt is unplayable at this point. The socialist Republicans will not stop until there is no more paper to print money. And the socialist democrats are worse. If this deficit spending continues, our US Dollar will lose its pre-eminence as the world's trade currency! The USA has already intercepted Oil trading on the high seas... Other countries already don't need the US dollar for their trade. When the dollar tanks, interest will have to be raised. And then, watch out housing and stock market and everything else. If you THINK that you've seen chaos lately, wait to see it when THAT happens. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. With a national debt of over 26 TRILLION and an annual budget deficit of a TRILLION dollars, some still claim we are WINNING. Despite the declining manufacturing data, ballooning national debt, and budget deficit. As interest rates go up, the cost of financing the National Debt is also going to go up. The Government wants inflation to pick up. But they will not increase the Social Security payments by anywhere near real inflation. In fact, over the last seven years buying power of your Social Security has gone down because of the inflation, the Government won't talk about. If inflation starts to get away from this Government Treasury notes, bills and bonds might be the place to stick your money. Remember the 13 and 14% Nixon years. You could have picked up 30-year bonds with a 10%. We’re lucky the US is the world's reserve currency and get a major boost from this, where other countries approaching 100% debt to GDP have trouble selling their debt, and interest rates go wild. But we will find ourselves in a major rate bind when the next recession hits and more deficit stimulus spending is needed to jumpstart us out of it. Soon the world will pull our reserve currency status, and that is going to make some people very unhappy. We are flying blind here, just piling on deficits, and eventually, it is going to catch up, and it will be a catastrophe. Obama DOUBLED the national debt in 8 years, adding ten trillion, that's more Debt than every other previous President COMBINED. Trump has added about $6 trillion to the national debt so far, despite his pledge to wipe it out in eight years and his campaigning on being "the king of debt." Remember, in the primaries Trump stated "we need to reduce the national debt" and then said the great tax robbery from the middle and lower classes in favor of the rich would bring in so much new tax income for the federal government that it could begin to cut the national debt !! I am STILL WAITING !! If you take away the $70B tax break given to corporations, the net growth would be 1.8%. I have to conclude that Trump doesn't know what he is doing with the economy. Why do we need to spend $730B a year on defense? If you add the $300B that NATO is spending, that is more than ALL military spending of all of the other countries of the world COMBINED! However, I dispute the premise that any businessman needs to be President. The government is not a business. It does not produce anything. The money coming in is money taken from the hard work of citizens. We need someone with morals to be President. Someone who actually is concerned with how to spend our money. Yes, we need national defense, we need infrastructure, we need about 1000 other things as well. However, we do not need anything so bad to borrow money outside of natural disaster relief. Everything else can and should be planned for. If we can’t afford something, then we can’t have it. I want a Porsche but can’t afford it and am unwilling to give up a few other things to get it. It should be the same as the government. Businessmen don’t think that way. They borrow and spend, and hopefully, the new product pays for what they borrowed. The government has no new product to sell. Conservatives claim government spending doesn't improve the economy unless it's corporate welfare for the military-industrial complex. The US outspends China by six times and Russia by ten times in military spending. Trump touts increased spending on the military as one of his administration's top accomplishments. The only thing our government has always been good at is literally just spending money they don't have. We literally already pay so much in taxes. They need to cut spending. The defense budgets are completely out of control. But it has always been such a boondoggle for politicians. No politician is willing to speak the truth. Balancing the budget will take three things. Entitlement reform. Cut military spending. Increase tax revenue. Touching one of those three will get you primaried in either party. Fiscally responsible, GOP sent the deficit into the stratosphere. Haven't you heard, since electing the chosen one, debt is no longer an issue, we just default, easy cheesy lemon squeezy. Why would we pay off our debt when we can tell the contractors to take a hike. Of course, we'll still have to cut social security and cut medicare. Somebody has to pay for the wealthy/corporate welfare program. Support corruption, forsake your principles, edify the wealthy/corporations at the expense of the U.S. all. Default on the debt and watch the US dollar become worthless overnight. I hope Trump isn't that insane. The ruling banksters probably think that they are exempt from what happens when the dung hits the fan. They probably even have bunkers setup or compounds on remote Islands. The problem is that even if you have a trillion dollars, you can't buy a can of tuna if there is none. Taxpayers are the proverbial goose that laid the golden egg. Trying to assume that the economy will just continue to grow to cover any rise in interest payments is the epitome of stupid. Personally, I hope we have a crash in the next couple of years so that we can FINALLY have an adult discussion about Federal spending. At some point, the public will demand higher interest rates for Federal debt issued, which will invariably crowd out the stupid amounts of spending on pork-barrel projects, special interest handouts, and the government contracts for defense. Shame on both Democrats and Republicans for this mess. A study of 20 developed countries who became overindebted showed that ALL 20 had to eventually go through austerity to resolve the issue. It is also a fact that NO country has been able to print its way out of debt. With the amount of debt we now have, we will already have to go through decades of austerity to pay it down. The longer we keep racking up the debt to avoid the pain, the longer the period of austerity we will have to go through. And the entire world will be having to go through this austerity - making it even worse. This is just common sense and should be recognized by anyone with a fully functioning brain!! We need a real and huge spending cut program. Starting with the government subsidies (there are over 2200 of them). Eliminate all of them (that equates to about one trillion dollars a year). Subsidies, which always interfere with the free marketplace, are essentially a "slice" of Communism - the most failed Economic system ever. Next, reduce government workers' salaries, pensions (no more full retirements at age 55 or under; wait until age 65 like the rest of us to earn full retirement benefits), and benefits to the equivalent of their counterparts in the private sector. Instead of pensions, put them on Social Security and contribute a small percentage of their annual salaries annually to their IRAs. No overtime pay for management employees. Go to automatic income tax deductions similar to Social Security - no forms to fill out - enabling us to eliminate most of the IRS. Abolish the debt-ridden and job-killing Obamacare. Government regulators get a new job - instead of endlessly creating more job-killing regulations, they start off with a clean piece of paper, make a minimum of needed regulations and eliminate the millions of regulations on the books now. The Fed is extending CREDIT, i.e., enabling more debt creation. They are allowing debtors to dig a deeper hole. Debt is a financial hole, and the first rule of holes is when you find yourself in one, stop digging. At some point, that debt will be defaulted on because the borrower becomes insolvent due to the collapse in the value of the collateral. It is very likely by then that the bond market falls apart and freezes, which means MARKET interest rates rise rapidly and lending freezes. The Fed has ensured that even the "responsible people" who have "done the right thing" are going to be screwed too. Inflation is already a problem. Groceries costs are doubling. Some new cars cost as much as a house. Rent is at an all-time high. Health insurance for a family of 3 is $1400 per month. These are big inflation numbers but will be dwarfed by what continued monetization will do. People are rioting and looting because they are being left behind. If you artificially create inflation in prices while simultaneously creating hyper-inflation in stocks, guess what happens! The non-investor class goes from middle to lower to peasants. And if I am a pissed off peasant, and I see an unguarded AT&T store, I am taking a few iPhones, because I am entitled to them. We have created a Hell of our own making. The US has austerity for the poor, hungry, and homeless folks. We cut back on food stamps, housing subsidies, school lunch programs, halfway houses, mental health centers, drug addiction programs, early childhood intervention, clean water. But there is ALWAYS a spare trillion for the military each year. Since 2009 the nation’s private-sector employers have been adding jobs for 132 straight months – 20.8 million since the Great Recession, and yet, nominal wage growth since the recovery officially began in mid-2009 has been low and flat. U.S. consumer debt is now above levels hit during the 2008 financial crisis. So despite the longest U.S. economic expansion in history, the debt more than doubled, nominal wage growth during record low unemployment is low and flat, the interest rate didn't recover, and consumer debt is at record high level. Understand this, when Social Security just starts to take in less than what is received, which is soon, the debt will explode at an even faster rate!! The debt is getting so big; soon, interest payments won't even be TOTALLY paid. Please protect your family by buying some physical gold and silver, even just 10% of your net worth. Bypass the future food lines and shortages, as people in "rich" countries before have done in times of national upheaval. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Subscribe. Leave me a comment. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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