Roubini Is Now Optimistic on Stocks

Dr. Doom Nouriel Roubini told CNBC on Tuesday that the "easy money" policy of the Federal Reserve will continue for "as far as the eye can see" and that's going to continue to be good for the U.S. stock market. "When you look at the [mixed] economic data, there's a gap between the fact that the markets, rightly so, are buoyant," he told the network, "because middle of last year central banks had done another massive round of quantitative easing." "Some of the improvement in the markets is not because growth is picking up ... certainly easy money implies asset inflation," Roubini added.There are some positives in the U.S. this year. You have QE, you have housing, you have the shale gas, you have some recovery in jobs in manufacturing," he explained in the interview. "But between the [January] fiscal deal ... and probably 'the sequester,' or something similar, we might have a $300 billion fiscal drag this year.""[The unemployment rate] is not going to fall to 6.5%, which is the trigger for the Fed stopping zero policy rates," Roubini said. - in CNBC

Roubini : we might have a $300 billion fiscal drag this year

"There are some positives in the U.S. this year. You have QE, you have housing, you have the shale gas, you have some recovery in jobs in manufacturing," Roubini explained in a recent "Squawk Box" interview. "But between the [January] fiscal deal … and probably 'the sequester,' or something similar, we might have a $300 billion fiscal drag this year."

Roubini : The Unemployment Rate is not going to fall to 6.5 percent

"[The unemployment rate] is not going to fall to 6.5 percent, which is the trigger for the Fed stopping zero policy rates," said Roubini, co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics.- in CNBC

Roubini: Low Interest Rates for As Far as Eye Can See

The Federal Reserve will keep interest rates near record lows for “as far as the eye can see,” says Nouriel Roubini,“Once the deleveraging of the public sector occurs, consumption growth is going to be slower,” Roubini tells CNBC. “So the economy for the time being is only growing 1.5 percent. Some positives would pick up the growth toward 2.3 percent, 3 percent.”Raising taxes and reducing government benefits will crimp income growth and force faster deleveraging, he notes. “Job creation is picking up, creating income. The tax increases, including the payroll tax elimination reduces it. So you have forces going in different directions.”“I don't think [a reversal of the Fed’s easing] is going to happen any time soon.” - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini Bearish on 2013 Economy

Nouriel Roubini : While the chance of a perfect storm – with all of these risks materializing in their most virulent form – is low, any one of them alone would be enough to stall the global economy and tip it into recession. And while they may not all emerge in the most extreme way, each is or will be appearing in some form. As 2013 begins, the downside risks to the global economy are gathering force.

Nouriel Roubini : The BRICs have been Hyped up too much

Nouriel Roubini : “BRICs have been hyped up too much,” Roubini said in an interview today at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. “Too much state role in enterprises, banks, resource nationalization, protectionism, lack of structural market-oriented reforms that increase the size of the private sector -- this is happening in most of the BRICs.”

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, talk about the European debt crisis, U.S. fiscal policy and political tensions in North Africa. The speak with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance" on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini : Iran plays for time as the centrifuges spin the uranium

Nouriel Roubini : Iranians are biggest bargainers ever with 2000 years of big bazaar deals: they are playing for time as the centrifuges spin the uranium

Iran plays for time @Judy_Dempsey Salehi:we've no red lines for bilat negs with US. Other side must have real intentions 2 resolve the issue - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: US-EU free Trade deal is a good alternative to semi-dead Doha

Nouriel Roubini ‏: “@vali_nasr: US-EU free trade deal a big theme at #MSC2013” indeed TAFTA is a good alternative to semi-dead Doha - in twittter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: European Defense is like the Arabic Phoenix:

Nouriel Roubini ‏: To quote Mozart's Cosi Fan Tutte: European Defense is "like the Arabic Phoenix: that it exists everybody says; where it is nobody knows" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Most Advanced Economies Central Banks have engaged in some form of Quantitative Easing

Nouriel Roubini : ....With growth anemic in most advanced economies, the rally in risky assets that began in the second half of 2012 has not been driven by improved fundamentals, but rather by fresh rounds of unconventional monetary policy. Most major advanced economies’ central banks – the European Central Bank, the US Federal Reserve, the Bank of England, and the Swiss National Bank – have engaged in some form of quantitative easing, and they are now likely to be joined by the Bank of Japan, which is being pushed toward more unconventional policies by Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s new government. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini : The US Political System is Dysfunctional

Summary of Nouriel Roubini's keynote speech in Manila praising the success of The Philippines "US economist hails PH success story Roubini noted that the US political system was dysfunctional and that this political gridlock would likely be a continuing source of noise for the economy.
While risks of a euro zone breakup had been averted, he said there were remaining risks on peripheral countries and in the case of China, risks of hard landing could not be ruled out for next year.

Nouriel Roubini ‏: We are likely headed to Sequester on March 1st

Nouriel Roubini ‏: 

GOP claims 2 be willing to accept sequester with large defense cuts as a way to force reform of entitlements as the pressure will be on Dems

In game of chicken, GOP claims it has more leverage than in cliff game as then tax increases were automatic while in seq, spendin cuts areGOP claims willin 2 take that pain @mattyglesias: @Nouriel How does that work? We'll slash defense spending unless Dems agree 2 cut Soc Sec?Senior GOP House leader told me in Davos at the #WEF that GOP is willing to trigger sequester to force significant entitlement reformConsumer confidence falls sharply in January as payroll tax cut is phased out. And we are likely headed to sequester on March 1st - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : The upswing in Global Equity Markets that started in July is now running out of steam

Nouriel Roubini : The upswing in global equity markets that started in July is now running out of steam, which comes as no surprise: With no significant improvement in growth prospects in either the advanced or major emerging economies, the rally always seemed to lack legs. If anything, the correction might have come sooner, given disappointing macroeconomic data in recent months.Starting with the advanced countries, the euro zone recession has spread from the periphery to the core, with France entering recession and Germany facing a double whammy of slowing growth in one major export market (China/Asia) and outright contraction in others (southern Europe). Economic growth in the United States has remained anaemic, at 1.5-2 per cent for most of the year, and Japan is lapsing into a new recession. The United Kingdom, like the euro zone, has already endured a double-dip recession and now, even strong commodity exporters — Canada, the Nordic countries, and Australia — are slowing in the face of headwinds from the US, Europe, and China. - in todayonline

Nouriel Roubini : The Philippines deserves an investment grade this 2013

Nouriel Roubini : The Philippines deserves an investment grade this 2013, said former US White House economist and university professor Nouriel Roubini who teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of economic consultancy firm, Roubini Global Economics. "The Philippines should get an upgrade to investment grade in 2013 as it economic, fiscal, financial & policy fundamentals are much improved" he said

The Philippines & Indonesia are much better long-term growth stories in Asia than the much hyped China & India

Nouriel Roubini ‏:"The Philippines & Indonesia are much better long-term growth stories in Asia than the much hyped China & India http://bloom.bg/XF0Bml :
" The Philippines should get an upgrade to investment grade in 2013 as it economic, fiscal, financial & policy fundamentals are much improved "

Roubini Gets Optimistic: 'Things Are Less Worse'

Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, and Ian Bremmer, president of Eurasia Group, talk about the European debt crisis, U.S. fiscal policy and political tensions in North Africa. The speak with Tom Keene on Bloomberg Television's "Surveillance" on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum's annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini @ Davos : Risks still not managed

Greece is still part of the Euro zone and the Euro still exists. In the past year Nouriel Roubini painted a horrorfying scenario. One year later he meets with DAF's Andreas Scholz again to talk about his past expectations.

China will have a soft landing but hard landing risk rising

Nouriel Roubini :" #WEF conventional wisdom: China will have a soft landing.But rebalancing from investment to consumption stalled. So hard landing risk rising " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Stagnation and outright Recession remain Europe’s norm

Nouriel Roubini : .....stagnation and outright recession – exacerbated by front-loaded fiscal austerity, a strong euro, and an ongoing credit crunch – remain Europe’s norm. As a result, large – and potentially unsustainable – stocks of private and public debt remain. Moreover, given aging populations and low productivity growth, potential output is likely to be eroded in the absence of more aggressive structural reforms to boost competitiveness, leaving the private sector no reason to finance chronic current-account deficits. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini : Risks for the Global Economy

Nouriel Roubini says instability in the Middle East, geopolitical disputes in Asia, and fiscal drags in Europe and the U.S. are still major risks

Nouriel Roubini : Emerging Markets have grown fast but state capitalism may slow them

Nouriel Roubini : " #WEF insight: 80% (50%) of the world population (GDP) is in emerging markets. So far they have grown fast but state capitalism may slow them " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : CEOs at The Wall Street Journal see Opportunities among Risks

Nouriel Roubini : " CEOs at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council lunch at the #WEF concerned about global uncertainties but also see opportunities among risks "
" CEOs at The Wall Street Journal CEO Council at #WEF are cautious: growth slow in advanced economies given deleveraging in spite of profits " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : As 2013 begins, the downside risks to the Global Economy are gathering force

Nouriel Roubini : ....serious geopolitical risks loom large. The entire greater Middle East – from the Maghreb to Afghanistan and Pakistan – is socially, economically, and politically unstable. Indeed, the Arab Spring is turning into an Arab Winter. While an outright military conflict between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other side remains unlikely, it is clear that negotiations and sanctions will not induce Iran’s leaders to abandon efforts to develop nuclear weapons. With Israel refusing to accept a nuclear-armed Iran, and its patience wearing thin, the drums of actual war will beat harder. The fear premium in oil markets may significantly rise and increase oil prices by 20%, leading to negative growth effects in the US, Europe, Japan, China, India and all other advanced economies and emerging markets that are net oil importers. While the chance of a perfect storm – with all of these risks materializing in their most virulent form – is low, any one of them alone would be enough to stall the global economy and tip it into recession. And while they may not all emerge in the most extreme way, each is or will be appearing in some form. As 2013 begins, the downside risks to the global economy are gathering force. - in www.project-syndicate.org

The Economic Fundamentals of 2013

By Nouriel Roubini :
NEW YORK – The global economy this year will exhibit some similarities with the conditions that prevailed in 2012. No surprise there: we face another year in which global growth will average about 3%, but with a multi-speed recovery – a sub-par, below-trend annual rate of 1% in the advanced economies, and close-to-trend rates of 5% in emerging markets. But there will be some important differences as well.Painful deleveraging – less spending and more saving to reduce debt and leverage – remains ongoing in most advanced economies, which implies slow economic growth. But fiscal austerity will envelop most advanced economies this year, rather than just the eurozone periphery and the United Kingdom. Indeed, austerity is spreading to the core of the eurozone, the United States, and other advanced economies (with the exception of Japan). Given synchronized fiscal retrenchment in most advanced economies, another year of mediocre growth could give way to outright contraction in some countries. Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-global-economy-s-rising-risks-in-2013-by-nouriel-roubini#w2QybyYGhXotBdMm.99

Nouriel Roubini : Housing starts only clear good news

Nouriel Roubini : "Philly Fed index mediocre after a weak Empire State one. Unemployment claims down due 2 seasonal factors.Housing starts only clear good news " - in twiter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: The Dreamliner is turning into a Nightmareliner

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" Dreamliner is turning into a Nightmareliner. Luckiy I am on an Airbus to Singapore! " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : China is The Biggest Risk for the second half of 2013

Nouriel Roubini : "It's not a hard landing, but close enough," he said. "I still worry about a hard landing in China." "My fear is the new leadership is very cautious and will carry out reforms much more slowly than necessary," Roubini said, adding that rapid stimulus spending could turn into an investment bust in the second half of 2013. - in a recent Reuters TV interview
click here to watch the full interview >>>>>

Roubini : China, could not do anything to stop Investment in the U.S.

Nouriel Roubini : "China can bitch about the U.S. fiscal deficit as much as it wants, but between the two evils of pulling the plug on the financing on theU.S., having a rise of the renminbi and a collapse of the export-led growth and the latter evil of keeping on financing us, then the latter evil is the lesser evil [for China]," he said. "If China shuns the U.S .dollar then every other emerging market says 'Hey, I don't want to let my currency appreciate and lose market share to China' and so they intervene and buy dollar and Treasurys," - in Reuters interview

Roubini: No Need to Panic Over Debt Ceiling, Yet

Nouriel Roubini : "In absolute terms, the United States has significant fiscal, growth and unemployment problems,""[But] paradoxically, if we don't reach an agreement in March on the fiscal debt ceiling and we get another downgrade, yields are going to fall, they're not going to go up. Everywhere else, if a country gets a downgrade, the yields go up, in the U.S. it is the opposite." Roubini said at a Reuters conference in New York on Monday , "We have low growth, we have low inflation below target, we have zero federal funds…in 2015, we're doing QE3 (a third round of quantitative easing), maybe QE4," he said. "Every time there is a global bout of risk aversion people go into the dollar and Treasurys," he said. "At the peak of the crisis, the dollar rallied because we are the safest," "Here you have five or six reasons why, in spite of large and unsustainable debt and the [political gridlock] the bond vigilantes are asleep at the wheel- and they're going to stay like that for a while." "Eventually the bond vigilantes are going to figure out that our debts are unsustainable [alongside those] in Europe, in Japan and in emerging markets and…Eventually, if we don't solve our problems, if we [still] have this dysfunctional political system, then the bond vigilantes are going to wake up, but not yet."-

Roubini: U.S. still a standout bet for investors

Nouriel Roubini, often called "Dr. Doom" for his gloomy outlook, says even if the U.S. debt rating is downgraded and the country ends up in a double-dip recession the rest of the world still will turn to the dollar and Treasury bonds. (January 14, 2013)

Hungary Is Blaming Nouriel Roubini For The Drop In Its Currency The Forint

Hungarian business site Portfolio.HU explains that apparently it was a response to a call from Nouriel's company that the Hungarian Forint was a short: "Last Tuesday Nouriel Roubini, one of the world’s most influential financial analysts, made the following recommendation in his regular newsletter to his clients: "Until Hungary signs a new deal with the IMF we recommend short HUF." So, with this sentence he signalled for investors to bet on the forint’s weakening. - in businessinsider

Roubini Bullish on The US in The Long Run

Nouriel Roubini : “In the long term, I think that the fundamentals of the U.S. are a lot stronger than other advanced countries,” “In the short run, I think we will have another year of very anemic economic growth. Next year we will have barely 1.7% including a modest amount of fiscal drag and lots of tail risk could make it worse in the U.S — bigger fiscal cliff, the euro-zone crisis, a Chinese hard landing, maybe tensions will raise oil prices in the Middle East — so the downside scenario is actually having a meaningful probability.”

Nouriel Roubini - The International Financial Crisis and the Euro Zone

Nouriel Roubini, Founder & Chairman, Roubini Global Economics Moderator Manuel Meneses, Editor on politics and international affairs, RTP

Nouriel Roubini warns of further trouble ahead

“Unfortunately, the eurozone crisis is likely to remain with us for years to come, sustaining the likelihood of coercive debt restructurings and eurozone exits,” Nouriel Roubini, a professor at NYU’s Stern School of Business wrote in his article for Project Syndicate in December. “The fundamental crisis of the eurozone has not been resolved, and another year of muddling through could revive these risks in a more virulent form in 2014 and beyond,” Roubini said, citing ‘Grexit’ and probable massive loss of market access in Italy and Spain.

Roubini : The longer-term picture for America is bleaker still

Nouriel Roubini : "If no action is taken by March 1, $110bn of spending cuts will commence, and at about the same time, the US will hit its statutory debt limit, known colloquially as the debt ceiling," he said. "Later in 2013, a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin. This will lead to another dispute between Republicans, who want to shrink the size of the federal government, and Democrats, who want to maintain it but are unsure how to pay for it." "The longer-term picture is bleaker still. The reality is that America is yet to wake up to the full extent of its fiscal nightmare," "Neither Democrats nor Republicans recognize that maintaining a basic welfare state, which is right and necessary in our age of globalization, rapid technological change and demographic pressure, implies higher taxes for the middle class as well as for the rich. "A deal that extends unsustainable tax cuts for 98% of Americans is therefore a Pyrrhic victory for Mr Obama." - excerpts from his recent article in the Financial Times

Nouriel Roubini : 2013 will be another Year of very Anemic Economic Growth for America

Nouriel Roubini : "In the long term, I think that the fundamentals of the U.S. are a lot stronger than other advanced countries. In the short run I think we will have another year of very anemic economic growth. Next year we will have barely 1.7% including a modest amount of fiscal drag and lots of tail risk could make it worse in the U.S–bigger fiscal cliff, the eurozone crisis, a Chinese hard landing, maybe tensions will raise oil prices in the Middle East–so the downside scenario is actually having a meaningful probability.""I do believe there is a housing recovery but I think that those that are more optimistic about it are going to be proven wrong next year. Housing can increase say 10% to 15% in real terms of residential investment but at the peak it was 6% of GDP, right now it's only 2% of GDP, so the direct effect on GDP growth is going to be very small." - in Bloomberg Surveillance

Nouriel Roubini : Politics Will Define 2013

Nouriel Roubini :.... The developed markets are “submerging,” or reverting to an emerging-markets-style world in which politics drives almost everything.the familiar macroeconomic toolkit isn’t working anymore. That means we need to create one, an inevitably political process.“This is an issue that is coming, but it is not there yet,” he said. “It is clear in the U.S. we are talking about inequality. It is not clear we will do anything about it.” - via the economonitor

Nouriel Roubini : America is yet to wake up to the full extent of its Fiscal Nightmare

Nouriel Roubini : ...“Later in 2013, and not before time, a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin. This will lead to another dispute between Republicans, who want to shrink the size of the federal government, and Democrats, who want to maintain it but are unsure how to pay for it.”“So the US could quite easily come perilously close to stall speed this year – or worse, if the eurozone crisis worsens.” “The reality is that America is yet to wake up to the full extent of its fiscal nightmare” - Roubini wrote in the FT last week

Roubini predicts further fiscal crises for US, will get "messy"

Nouriel Roubini : "It won't be long before there is another crisis. Two months, in fact." "That is only the beginning later in 2013 a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin." He added that "a big fight about entitlements should be expected as well as a series of little fights over tax reforms" and the whole process will likely "soon get messy." - in globalpost

Nouriel Roubini : Fears of early Fed QE phase-out are way exaggerated

Nouriel Roubini : Fears of early Fed QE phase-out are way exaggerated. Fed minutes noises are most likely another Fed fake... expect QE thru all of 2013- in twitter

Roubini : Jobs Report consistent with the anemic below-trend GDP growth rate

Nouriel Roubini : " Jobs report consistent with the anemic below-trend GDP growth rate of about 2%. This before payroll tax increase hits disposable income"
" US holiday retail sales disappoint, FT http://on.ft.com/RuTA9T This before the rise in the payroll tax reduces disposable income by 2% " - in twitter

The US Will ‘Soon Get Messy’ Again

Nouriel Roubini : "It won't be long before there is another crisis. Two months, in fact.""That is only the beginning later in 2013 a bigger debate on medium-term fiscal consolidation will begin.""a big fight about entitlements should be expected as well as a series of little fights over tax reforms" and the whole process will likely "soon get messy." - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini : The US has been let down by its leadership

The mini fiscal deal has prevented the U.S. economy from falling off the fiscal cliff right now but, to mix metaphors, it has only really kicked the cliff down the road. excerpt from the "new Financial Times op-ed on the fiscal cliffs ahead: "US has been let down by its leadership" FT Opinion http://on.ft.com/Wliypi"

Nouriel Roubini : 2013 Themes , Wars Crisis and Tensions

Nouriel Roubini : " 2013 themes: ongoing US cliffs, EZ crisis, China hard landing?, Iran/Israel, BRICs slowdown with state capitalism, Asia islands tensions " - in twitter

Roubini : Asian Exports Falling is a Sign of Global Economic Slowdown

Nouriel Roubini : " Korean exports are usually first and early barometer of global trade & growth "S Korea’s falling exports" FT http://on.ft.com/Z75FFP "
" Driven by EZ recession & US uncertainties @Reuters_Biz: Asia's factories show signs of revival, but exports sluggish http://reut.rs/WkagOA" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Fiscal Cliff Deal ? What Deal , Talk is Cheap

Nouriel Roubini : " A deal? Which deal? Talk is cheap. No vote so we are over the cliff. And we will see if the House will eventually vote for this alleged deal "
" Mini-deal or not, serial cliffs - starting with the debt ceiling cat-fight - will be be with us thru all of 2013. Happy New Year to all!"
" 2013 serial fiscal cliffs: tax cuts expire, spending sequester, debt ceiing catfight, medium term fiscal adj, entitlement reform, tax reform" - in twitter