NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, July 16, 2020
👉Over 50 Million Americans Have Now Filed For Jobless Claims !!
👉Over 50 Million Americans Have Now Filed For Jobless Claims !!
The number of jobs lost due to the coronavirus shutdown continues to mount, with the latest weekly total of Americans applying for unemployment benefits coming in at 1.3 million. 17 Consecutive weeks of New Unemployment over a MILLION people. The previous Maximum was 800,000 during the 2008 Depression. Another 1.3 million Americans filed for unemployment benefits last week. Over 50 Million Americans have now filed for first-time jobless benefits since lockdowns began. The level of new claims remains far above the about 200,000 new unemployment insurance claims filed each week in February before the pandemic hit. And it is still nearly double the 665,000 weekly claims filed at the worst point during the Great Recession in 2009. Continued unemployment claims are still too high. The 4-week average has been above 17 Million since Apr 25th. Just as a reference to the peak of this number in 2009 was 6.5 Million, and it stayed above 5 Million for almost a year. The frustrating reality is that new claims have remained above one million since exploding in late March and having dipped below 2 million in late May. Understand the numbers; we are not in lockdown, we are technically reopening, these are initial claims, meaning people that just lost their jobs, these are permanent losses, no temporary furloughs. People can't go back to work for jobs that no longer exist. The jobless claim is going to get worse as more cities will lockdown again. As long as businesses cannot do business, there will be a substantial number of new claims. Businesses that have been able to hang on are steadily losing their grip and will shed employees, even if limited operations are allowed. Backtracking on reopening will of course, also add new claims. The US keeps adding new unemployed people by the MILLION every week, and news reports seem to make it a good thing. It's like saying, "well, this company is doing great, it lost 20 million last month, and this month it only lost 5 million". It would be concerning even if the number came out as expected. People are suffering, and that needs to be acknowledged. The only thing that really matters is how many people are unemployed. And that's 50 million, and that's a real tragedy. The rest is just number manipulation. If you look at the participation rate i.e., the number of working-age Americans not in the labor force, the figure is already a lot more than 50 million! In many states, especially in California, they are re-closing parts of the economy this week, so you will see even a bigger number next week. Wall Street cronies stop looking the other way. At the moment, approximately 44 million Americans are on food stamps. Twenty-eight million facing mass evictions. More unemployed - more cases of the virus- but the dow is only a few hundred points from the all-time high. Great job fed- putting those trillions in a false market. Any way you slice it; still nearly 20 million people out of work and the impact of the bigger wave of the virus have not been felt yet. Watch as they close the bars and restaurants and other public places they opened up, we'll be at 50 million by election day. Nobody is HIRING. They are still in LAYOFF mode. And will be for the rest of the year. Once CARE money and PPP end, huge amounts of money will disappear from circulation.employers are broke and can't pay people. States and universities are now starting to lay off due to budget cuts. The PUI will end July 31st, so these workers won't get to qualify as their last date of employment will be August 31st. As businesses remain closed or scaled-down, they need to cut payroll. At first, they cut their pay and let them stay, but the work hasn't picked up, so they must let them go. This has hit all levels at all levels. Stores, bars, and restaurants shuttered, many for good this time. Restaurant bankruptcies are already soaring to all-time highs. There have been eight bankruptcies of outright restaurant chains or operators of franchises since early April. With each passing month, the filings have become prominent as restaurants struggle with tepid traffic, mountains of debt, and sky-high rent after being allowed to reopen by states. The latest two high-profile names to file for bankruptcy include children’s fun house Chuck E. Cheese and Wendy’s and Pizza Hut franchisee NPC International. And this does not take into account all of the mom and pop restaurants that are failing. Can't even afford pizza today, gotta line for bread crumb. Food insecurity is getting worse. A recent survey found that the pandemic could push an additional 17 million people into food insecurity this year. More than 80 percent of the food banks are serving more people than they were last year. It is depression. Fifty million jobs lost, GDP cut in half, 150,000 people killed by the virus, the trade deficit is ten years high! And wait until the $600 a week unemployment supplement is gone, wait for thousands of families and children being evicted, wait for the hospitals to be at capacity and people are dying on the floor, wait for 50% of services businesses to become bankrupt. Wait until 3 million families get evicted from their home starting next month when the protection expires. The employment rate, market, and economy have been manipulated for the last few years to give an illusion of stability so that Trump can get re-elected in November. The COVID virus was only a pin that popped the bubble. The crash is going to happen eventually, and the Fed is keeping the illusion alive until after the election. Unfortunately, the Fed is running out of options and is releasing half-truths to soften the blow. The deficit is already off the trillions mark. Good luck and buckle your seats and enjoy the view, just look out for the banksters landing on the roof of your car. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. PPP money ending soon. When it does, companies will lay off a whole bunch of employees because they were required to keep them on for a period of time, and that time is coming to an end. Then after the government passes a new stimulus package that has new money for businesses to keep their employees, the same businesses will take that money too. Only now they will have already gotten rid of a good chunk of their workers. The labor market cannot be healthy until the recovery is mostly demand-driven. A flash in the pan was driven by the PPP. The people getting hired back are generally those that were laid off in the beginning, lower-wage service jobs. The people just starting to get laid off now are generally the higher income middle class. The one's who have mortgages, bigger loans, buy cars, and lots of other consumer goods. People are naive to think everything is going to be ok. We will soon start seeing the effects of all this shortly. Cracks are already opening up. The Middle class is the ones with mortgages, car payments, and buy all kinds of consumer goods keeping the economy going. The middle class is getting clobbered right now financially, and the divide between the rich and the poor is growing that much larger. Tens of millions NEVER received their unemployment. And that too was DELIBERATE. The government is incentivizing unemployment; this is obvious. The question is, why? I think the putrid politicians know we're bankrupt. They're simply buying time before this shit show finally ends. Finally, it is notable. We have lost 364 jobs for every confirmed US death from COVID-19 . Was it worth it? The big question remains - what happens when the $600 CARES Act bonuses stop flowing? One check of $600 left, then watch for impact! These people hard to say this, but they are eff'ed by the Fed. The $600 was part of their plan to rob another 3 Trillion. It means the Fed printing press will print even faster to help ramp stocks. The Fed will keep printing to put a patch on the deflating tire, hoping it will get the administration into November before all the air comes out of the market. They are printing out the wazoo to the tune of $800b a week. At the current pace, we will double our debt by the end of the year and watch as the GOP stops caring about fiscal responsibility (like they ever cared to begin with). Feds cannot create jobs. They can only enrich the executives in hopes of them creating jobs. This strategy does not work. Always take delivery first. The current republicans are the worst money managers in the USA. Reagan increased our debt more than any president since the great depression, and Bush 2 came in second. Obama is actually 3rd, and now it looks like Trump wants to take Reagan's mantle in only four years. With so many people still filing initial unemployment claims and making continued claims compared to the Great Recession, there will be no V-shaped recovery. Mass bankruptcies need to be resolved first, and that is only beginning. And as the fed bubblicious stock market hits new highs! No problem here! This news can mean only one thing - more new highs to come in the stock market soon! Well, then it should skyrocket tomorrow because bad news means great news for Wall Street. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, July 15, 2020
Economic Collapse Coming , Be Prepared !!
Economic Collapse Coming , Be Prepared !!
Tens of millions of American families are about to go through economic armageddon and most of them don’t even realize it. Most Americans don’t spend a whole lot of time thinking about things like “monetary policy” or “economic cycles”. The vast majority of people just want to be able to get up in the morning, go to work and provide for their families. Most Americans realize that things seem harder these days, but most of them also have faith that things will eventually get better. Unfortunately, things aren’t going to get any better. The number of good jobs continues to decline, the number of Americans losing their homes continues to go up, people are having a much more difficult time paying their bills and our federal government is drowning in debt. Sadly, this is only just the beginning. Since the financial collapse of 2008, the Federal Reserve and the U.S. government have taken unprecedented steps to stimulate the economy. But even with all of those efforts, we are still living in an economic wasteland. So what is going to happen when the next wave of the economic crisis hits? During one recent interview, Peter Schiff made the following statement. If you look at the economic relapse that’s going on right now, look at the abysmal job numbers, look at the housing numbers, understand that all of this is taking place with record monetary and fiscal stimulus. What happens if we remove those supports? The Federal Reserve’s quantitative easing program is slated to end. The U.S. Congress and state legislatures from coast to coast are talking about budget cuts. The amount of borrowing and spending that has been going on is clearly unsustainable, but will the U.S. economy start shrinking again once the current “financial sugar high” has worn off? COVID-19 should have been a wake up call for all of us. Lockdowns were implemented very suddenly once the virus started to spread in the U.S., and shortages of key items began to happen. To this day, many retailers are still limiting the number of items that you can buy in certain categories. Hopefully this has helped people to understand that if you have not stocked up in advance, you may not be able to go out and get what you need when a major crisis strikes. During the initial stages of this pandemic, a lot of people ended up being stuck at home without enough supplies. In the event of a truly historic emergency, you can certainly survive without toilet paper, but if you run out of food you could find yourself in big trouble quite quickly. The good news is that COVID-19 is not going to kill us all. About half a million people around the world have died so far, and the final death toll will be a lot lower than the tens of millions that died during the Spanish Flu pandemic of 1918 to 1920. But if our society was extremely ill-prepared for a pandemic of this nature, what is going to happen when a pandemic that is much more severe hits us? Scientists assure us that it is just a matter of time before a killer plague sweeps across the planet, and the Bible tells us that there will be “pestilences” in the last days. If you find yourself isolated at home for an extended period of time as millions of others are dying from a virus, will you be able to survive on what you have already stored up? If not, you need to get to work. Big economic problems are ahead as well. So far in 2020, more than 47 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits, more than 100,000 businesses have permanently closed their doors, and it is being projected that U.S. GDP will decline by 46.6 percent on an annualized bases during the second quarter. Those are absolutely disastrous numbers, but so far trillions of dollars of emergency government spending has helped to ease the pain. But those emergency measures were only meant to get us through a few months, and it is now becoming clear that this new economic depression will be with us for a very long time to come. As the economic situation has unraveled, an increasing number of people are being forced to turn to the federal government for assistance. One out of every six Americans is now enrolled in at least one anti-poverty program run by the federal government. Some of the hardest hit members of our society have been our children. Today, one out of every four American children is on food stamps. Back in the old days, a large percentage of American families were self-sufficient, but that is no longer the case. Back in 1850, approximately 50 percent of all Americans worked on farms. Today, less than 2 percent of Americans do. So these days when American families can’t feed themselves what do they do? They turn to the federal government of course. At the moment, approximately 44 million Americans are on food stamps. But our federal government cannot afford to spend money like this forever. The US government has thrown more than $6 trillion at the coronavirus crisis. That number could grow. Wow! Who is going to end up paying that bill? So with so much bad news, are our leaders alarmed? Not really. The truth is that America is in decline. Just like with all of the great empires of the past, our empire is starting to crumble too. A recent article in the Guardian touched on some of the reasons for America’s decline…. The experience of both Rome and Britain suggests that it is hard to stop the rot once it has set in, so here are the a few of the warning signs of trouble ahead: military overstretch, a widening gulf between rich and poor, a hollowed-out economy, citizens using debt to live beyond their means, and once-effective policies no longer working. The high levels of violent crime, epidemic of obesity, addiction to pornography and excessive use of energy may be telling us something: the US is in an advanced state of cultural decadence. The economic news is only part of the puzzle. This country has rejected the ancient wisdom that was passed down to us and we have rejected the principles of our founding fathers. We have piled up the biggest mountain of debt in the history of the world and yet somehow we expected that everything would turn out okay. Well, everything is not going to turn out okay. All of this debt is going to come down on us like a ton of bricks and the U.S. economy is going to continue to fall apart. Millions of American families are going to lose their jobs and their homes. Economic Armageddon is coming. You better get ready. This was The Survival Economist. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, July 14, 2020
The Second Wave of Lockdowns will be Fatal For The Economy
The Second Wave of Lockdowns will be Fatal For The Economy
Another wave of lockdowns has begun, and that is really bad news for the U.S. economy. The first wave of lockdowns resulted in the permanent closing of more than 100,000 U.S. businesses, colossal lines at food banks around the nation, and the loss of tens of millions of jobs. Needless to say, this new wave of lockdowns will make things even worse, and some are speculating that this is precisely what Democrats want. If the U.S. economy continues to fall apart as we approach the election in November, the thinking is that this will make President Trump look bad and will make it more likely that people will cast votes for Democrats. But there is also the possibility that this could backfire in a huge way for the left. If millions of Americans start to identify the Democrats as “the party of the lockdowns”, that could actually greatly help President Trump in November. At this point, the battle lines are becoming quite clear. President Trump and other top Republicans are strongly against more lockdowns, but Democratic politicians in many areas of the country are starting to institute them anyway. In fact, we just learned that all schools in Los Angeles, San Diego, Atlanta and Nashville will be closed at the beginning of the new school year. Resisting pressure from President Donald Trump, three of the nation’s largest school districts said Monday that they will begin the new school year with all students learning from home. Schools in Los Angeles, San Diego and Atlanta will begin entirely online, officials said Monday. Schools in Nashville plan to do the same, at least through Labor Day. Other major cities are expected to follow suit. Of course considering the quality of the education in most of our public schools, most of those kids won’t exactly be missing too much. Ultimately, closing the schools won’t have too much of an economic impact, but shutting down most of the businesses in our largest state certainly will. On Monday, California Governor Gavin Newsom announced a comprehensive lockdown for 30 California counties which account for “about 80 percent of California’s population”. Newsom, a Democrat, announced during a press briefing that all bars across the state must close up shop and that restaurants, wineries, tasting rooms, family entertainment centers, zoos, museums and card rooms must suspend indoor activities. The governor also announced that all gyms, places of worship, malls, personal care services, barbershops, salons, and non-critical offices in counties on the state’s “monitoring list” had to shut down under the new order. The order affects more than 30 counties which are home to about 80 percent of California’s population. Newsom is a political opportunist, and I guarantee you that he wouldn’t be doing this unless he truly believed that it would help Democrats in November. But I think that Newsom and other top Democrats have greatly underestimated how much the American people detest COVID-19 restrictions at this point. We have been witnessing a huge backlash all over the country, and even though California is far more liberal than most other states, a backlash has been brewing there as well. If the Democrats are not very careful, they are going to lose an election that they could have very easily won. First of all, they should have never nominated Joe Biden. It is obvious to everyone that he is physically and mentally declining at a very rapid pace, and videos of him “acting creepy” will be viewed millions upon millions of times over the coming months. Democrats have known about Biden’s creepy behavior for many years, but they decided to give the nomination to him anyway. Secondly, most top Democrats have refused to strongly denounce the rioting, looting and violence that have happened around the nation, and this is going to push a whole lot of people toward the Republicans. Thirdly, the backlash against these new lockdowns is going to be directed primarily toward Democrats. If Democratic politicians push too far, this will be an issue that deeply hurts them in November. But despite all of these mistakes, it is possible that the Democrats could still come out on top, because Trump and the Republicans are making lots of political mistakes as well. If Trump wants to make a comeback in the polls, he really needs to fully embrace an anti-lockdown message, because that would strongly resonate with tens of millions of voters. The first wave of lockdowns certainly didn’t stop the spread of the virus, and more lockdowns will not stop it from spreading either. And now three separate scientific studies have shown that COVID-19 antibodies disappear very, very rapidly, and that means that a vaccine is not going to end this crisis and we will never reach a point of “herd immunity”. So we are going to have to find a way to function effectively as this virus circulates around the globe year after year, because it isn’t going to go away. We simply cannot shut down the economy every time the number of cases starts to surge again. The damage that we have already done to the U.S. economy has been incalculable, and now these new lockdowns will do even more damage. But the WHO continues to insist that more restrictions are needed. “Let me be blunt, too many countries are headed in the wrong direction, the virus remains public enemy number one,” WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus told a virtual briefing from the U.N. agency’s headquarters in Geneva. “If basics are not followed, the only way this pandemic is going to go – it is going to get worse and worse and worse.” What would the WHO have us do? Would they like us to all lock ourselves in our homes indefinitely? The WHO keeps touting a future vaccine, but if COVID-19 antibodies disappear after just a few months, there is no way that a vaccine is going to end this pandemic. And many Americans will never, ever take any COVID-19 vaccine under any circumstances. As I discussed in an article that I posted earlier, it looks like we are just going to have to accept the fact that COVID-19 is going to be around year after year. It is easy for the “experts” to tell us that everyone should just stay home, but the price tag for the first wave of lockdowns was astronomical. Thanks to all of the emergency measures that Congress passed, the U.S. government ran a budget deficit of 864 billion dollars in the month of June. The US budget deficit surged to a record-breaking $864 billion in June, the Treasury Department said on Monday. The increase is the product of the federal government’s efforts to combat the coronavirus pandemic and its economic fallout. The government collected about $240 billion in tax revenue in June, the Treasury said, and federal spending overall reached $1.1 trillion. To put that in perspective, it took from the founding of our nation until 1980 for the U.S. government to accumulate a total of 864 billion dollars of debt. And now we have added that much to the national debt in just one month. We simply cannot keep doing this. No matter what we do, COVID-19 is going to keep spreading, and we are going to have to learn how to deal with this virus for a very long time to come. More lockdowns are definitely not the answer, but unfortunately many of our politicians are convinced otherwise. So U.S. economic conditions will continue to deteriorate, and the economic depression that began earlier this year will continue through the end of 2020 and beyond. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, July 12, 2020
The Banks on Verge of a Crash Worse than 2008
The Banks on Verge of a Crash Worse than 2008
The pandemic and the associated sharp contraction in the U.S. economy have abruptly ended a long period of good fortune for the US banks and created their greatest challenge since the 2008 financial crisis. The Big banks are set for the worst financial quarter since the financial crisis. In fact , as the big banks gear up for earnings season, many investors are anticipating the worst quarter for the banks since the financial crisis. We are going to have more loan pain but plenty of fee income. Q2 earnings should bring this market back to reality. It is going to be ugly. The Banks Report Earnings is coming next week, It Won’t Be Good. I suspect the rubber is about to hit the road hard. Too many people not paying rents. Too many people not paying mortgages. Too many small businesses are going bankrupt and leaving their loans uncollectable. Too many write-offs. All the liquidity in the world does not make up for actual losses on the balance sheet - every dollar borrowed is both a debt and an asset .When the mortgages go into bankruptcy suddenly you are staring at a balance sheet with a lot of debt and no asset. The books can be cooked - and they will make themselves look better, but ultimately all the cooking just makes things worse. Hold onto your butts; the bankers are about to squeal like pigs. The credit defaults will put a hit on banking. A huge jump in unemployment claims will spell the beginning, not the end of this crisis. The default will probably rise before the layoff/unemployment no. The negative demand shock will cause a sudden default to incorporate, then unemployment. That is what FED and the EU central bank is afraid of. Twenty-eight million, or one in five Americans who live in households that rent, are facing mass evictions. Half the country's rent moratoriums are over. Courts are filling up with eviction cases. And the problem gets worse, that is, because when rental income for landlords collapses, they will experience financial hardships as well, including servicing mortgage payments and inability to cover other building-related expenses (if those are fixed or variable costs). Over half of mortgage payers haven't made a payment in months. Even though most banks are only Servicing most mortgages and aren’t the owner/investor, the Banks still have to cover the first few months of delinquent mortgage payment per most investor contracts. That’s a serious coin for millions of mortgages if the borrower never cures the loan and defaults. Additionally, banks have to write down the value of their mortgage servicing rights when a loan defaults. All that said, it’s still better than being the investor backing the loan, but Banks still take a decent-sized hit when loans start going bad, even in relatively small numbers. Nearly 10% of overall bank funds are tied up in bonds and loans to the energy sector. At this time, with oil below $40, the Banks energy sector liability is incalculable. With more and more brick and mortar retailers going bankrupt ,resulting in more and more vacant stores in shopping centers and malls. The banks holding the loans on said properties could see many related commercial property loan defaults. No buyback equals no profits because banks always manipulate to make money on buyback buy low sell highs. So what does it mean for investors? Well, if there's no buyback, we know fed back up banks because fed planning or know things will drop a lot more. Fed does not want banks to buy back high, then it drops? Banks and corporations owned by fed and fed and corporations and banks owned by behind curtains world power. I am shocked that with 30 million unemployed, the economy stalled, oil cratered, and consumers confined to their homes, that banks aren't able to just hold a net out the window to catch all of the money falling from nearby trees and use it to record profits despite whatever is happening on the filthy little people milling about like zombies on the streets. And apparently, this is good news--with the market shooting higher every day. Still charging 25% interest rates to customers on credit card accounts, and now they want a backstop for potential losses while they borrow money at zero percent interest. Bottom line, savers and speculators are screwed by the banksters, who always get their way from the greatest inheritor of all time. It is good to be born well. Ask Baron. This is the price of debt-based wealth. Everything from cars to corporations is financed with massive amounts of credit. Entire countries are robbing Peter to pay Paul to the point where no one even knows who is paying for what, if anyone. It's like the entire world economy, and particularly the American is one big Ponzi scheme. The Feds are running the Banks as Russia and China do. Welcome to Communist America. The Fed's have turned into Socialist Communists and are running the banks. What is very obvious is the Fed has been loading the banks since last year through the Repo market, and it is well known on the street that banks needed liquidity. Covid-19 has really provided some "cover" for what was coming anyway. The explosion into vehicles to increase that liquidity, even in the form of "junk bond ETFs," further speaks to this reality. Net short, I'm happy to hold longs as well, but the transparency from the Fed speaks to desperation. Stress tests and meetings with the senate, just a dog and pony show for the public. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. If the current economic shock has taught us anything, it is that despite all the new controls rules regulations put in by Congress after the financial crisis,Wall Street always has a way of finding new and inventive ways of creating things to sell like the hundreds of billions of dollars in subprime mortgage-backed securities that basically broke bank balance sheets more than ten years ago. A similar but simpler Wall Street product needs to be on your radar if it's not already. You've probably heard about them. They're called collateralized loan obligations , or CLOs . No not CDOs. Those are collateralized debt obligations, which of course, just you know, help destroy the banking system in 2008. CLOs are bundles of business loans generally made to smaller or mid-sized companies some of whom have maybe trouble balance sheets or maxed out their own borrowing, can't sell bonds directly to investors or do not qualify for traditional bank loans. The banks are making mistakes similar to those leading up to the 2008 financial crisis. Only this time with this new type of security that could break bank balance sheets beyond repair. The only constant here is the taxpayer always pays for the sins of the rich. But hey, no worries, the Fed will bail all out. Fed has been buying bonds. Thus, these companies will be able to issue more bonds and pay back their debt to the banks. The banks also can sell off the bonds they're holding to Fed at a profit with near 0 rates. All win-win for everyone except the federal balance, which no one cares about. Debts no longer matter, employment no longer matters. Governments printing funny money no longer matters. Corporate losses, stores closing it does not matter. Dead bodies, mass graves, it does not matter. Welcome to the Twilight Zone. The Fed now needs to print faster! Fun facts: The Fed is not, I repeat not, a government agency and not part of the federal government at all. The Fed is a private institution run by private bankers, who have taken over the US governmental finance sector. The US constitution forbids anyone but the federal government from printing money. The US government does not print money. The Federal Reserve (a privately owned company) prints our money then loans it to the US government via treasury notes, and the US government pays interest on it. The US government pays interest on money it borrows from a private company. It allows it to print our money. Let that sink in and think about it. If the US government would simply print its own money, we would not be in the debt crisis we are in now. We live in an unofficial oligarchy. The democrats and republicans fight and debate on camera, but behind closed doors, both parties are on the same team, and the mainstream media stations will keep people divided by race and class, focusing on issues to distract all of us from focusing on what corporations and their politicians are doing behind the curtains. prepare for another downturn in the stock market as investors will soon realize the shape of the recovery is an "L" rather than the overhyped "V." As long as the central banks keep interfering with market forces. They're not only protecting their own portfolios by putting us deeper in debt, but they HAVE TO keep these equity and bond markets up. If they don't, they're going to have tens of millions of retirees who are suddenly insolvent. Everything will collapse, in some places more than others. In that case, no candidate from either party would be able to speak in public with hundreds of 60 somethings on up cussing them out non-stop. If they fail, they will simply be nowhere to be found. They'll be far away protected by isolation and private security. Oh, the local politicians will (mostly) be alright, because most everyone loves their local politicians and won't blame them like those in Washington. The others, the ones largely behind the scenes, most of us don't even know of anyway. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, July 11, 2020
Mass Evictions , Homelessness and Property Prices Collapse Coming
Mass Evictions , Homelessness and Property Prices Collapse Coming
25% of New York City's apartment renters haven't paid since March. Evictions surge as cities suspend moratoriums. Twenty-eight million, or one in five Americans who live in households that rent, are facing mass evictions. Half the country's rent moratoriums are over. Courts are filling up with eviction cases. And even if moratoriums continue landlords cannot bear the burden of making the mortgage anyway, so what choice will either landlord or tenant have if both are unable to pay and foreclosure starts? You are starting to see where this is going? The whole system is bankrupt. Americans are about to get a rude awakening. The coronavirus pandemic could result in some 28 million Americans being evicted and becoming homeless. By comparison, 10 million people lost their homes in the Great Recession. We have never seen this extent of eviction in such a truncated amount of time in our history. We can expect this to increase dramatically in the coming weeks and months, especially as the limited support and intervention measures that are in place start to expire. A lot of the tenants are living in fear, day to day, not knowing if they’re going to receive a stimulus check, not knowing if they’re going to receive an unemployment check. They know that date is coming when legally they know their landlord will be able to get a court order to officially evict them. They know they’re not going to be able to pay that money. States that have already lifted the moratorium have seen a dramatic spike in eviction cases. And the problem gets worse, that is, because when rental income for landlords collapses, they will experience financial hardships as well, including servicing mortgage payments and inability to cover other building-related expenses (if those are fixed or variable costs). Over half of mortgage payers haven't made a payment in months. Have all the local governments given the landlords a pass on property taxes? Nope! have the banks given landlords a break on mortgage payments? Nope! Do the tenants expect services like garbage collection, utilities, maintenance? Yes! So why should the landlords take a massive hit? Private property, not government housing. Most renters got a stimulus check, and some get that extra 600 on top of their unemployment. Did they even talk to the landlord and pay something? I bet not, but that new TV sure is nice! Landlords have bills too, like a mortgage, property taxes, upkeep, etc. Who is paying them? These renters have skipped months of rent, just because they can. Sure, a small minority are truly screwed by the pandemic, but most are just commies that want free stuff. Now that all that back rent has piled up, they will never be able to catch up. This isn't government housing. A landlord who owns the property that people stopped paying rent on; he still has to continue making mortgage payments while these freeloaders refused to pay. More than Mortgage. There are property taxes, insurance, outside maintenance(if there is any soil around). All still go on. Even with forbearance and government prohibited evictions, the facilities require maintenance. Most landlords don't have pure equity in their buildings. They have debt. Equity gets wiped out first. Lots of equity will get wiped out. Sure, there is some old geezer who owns his buildings free and clear. He'll survive, but not for long because he's an old geezer. In many cases, landlords are just cheap property managers for the banks and the sucker to take most of the losses if the deal goes south. A few months of missed plumbing repairs, pest control, roofing repairs, and heat-induced brown-outs, will drive rent-free and jobless occupants to arson. And who wants to buy a building full of non-paying tenants! Everything's going to be revalued, lower. That $40 million apartment complex is now $15 million, and the rent for a two-bedroom has dropped from $4K to $1.5K. And the vacancy rate is rising. The Fed can print up as many fake fiat dollars as they like. They can't replace a good job and steady income. Unemployment is going to reach catastrophic levels, like 25%. All of this is going down, very, very hard. People are going to have to come to terms with some very tough decisions, like buying food rather than paying the mortgage, etc. You can't strangle the middle class, and small business owners and expect am economy to recover. The destructive revolts are just an outward reflection of what is happening economically. Socialism and big government have killed this country, yet the media (i.e., the billionaires who own those mouthpieces) continues to provide the socialists with cover and credibility. Like a good communist mayor, DeBlasio is trying to destroy the city in order to rebuild it in a communist way. He doesn't care about the taxpayers and businesses at all. He is only concerned about support among his parasitic supporters. The city is doomed. New York state is also doomed. They want to get rid of the Peasants from Manhattan so that District 1 can be established for the Technorati. Evict the tenants, condemn and raze the buildings and erect new IoT smart city towers with 5G in every room to house the vaccinated/sterilized, mask-wearing sheep. If this goes on too long, we'll see a market realignment. Landlord evicts a tenant for non-payment of rent, the landlord can't replace tenant (as other prospective tenants were presumably evicted from somewhere else) or can't replace them at the rent level they want or need, the landlord can't pay the debt on the property, landlord defaults and bank seizes property, the bank sells the property to recoup loan losses at distressed sales price, new landlord puts lower cost property back on the market at lower rent level due to lower debt service costs, local government takes revenue hit due to falling property tax values. And on and on. Stay liquid, my friends. There may deals to be had in the future. Escape the big cities. Work from home and buy property in the mountains. Large cities are a thing of the past. They are relics from times of industrial strength. The modern metropolis has outlived its usefulness. Housing prices have doubled in 8 years, have wages doubled? We now live in a casino economy, insurance, banks, and government. Ultimately, all this rolls up to the banks. And that's right in the Fed's wheelhouse. The big banks report earnings next week. They've been deferring credit card payments, mortgages, personal loans, car loans, etc. For months, and, if you are swayed by the media hype of the virus still spreading, it's only going to get worse. Wait until schools don't open, or do, and the teachers strike. We're in a mess that won't be easily fixed. A bank collapse would probably be the best solution. Screw them like they've screwed everybody else. Get rid of the Fed, bankrupt all the Wall Street hotshots and reprice. Deflation is going to wreck everything. Too many defaults are coming at them. See what their loan loss reserves look like this quarter and then triple that, and it still won't be enough. They're the ones primarily responsible for the debt implosion that's coming. They should all have been bankrupt in 2008. This is it. Instead of trying to prop everything up, they should have just agreed to put everything on freeze, all the way up to the lenders until it blows over. It’s like the vehicle blew a tire, and we just decided to floor it to try to make up for it, ruining the axle and more while going nowhere fast. Probably doesn’t help that we’re dealing with dishonest players who want their billions for a vaccine, among other nefarious abominations. You are starting to see where this is going? The whole system is bankrupt. How long till the sheep see that petrodollar is DEAD? Government fiat money is about to become as worthless as Soviet rubles. We're living through a prequel to Atlas Shrugged. The sad part is we were warned aplenty (she wrote it in 1956). Listen to the words being used. It's as if the story is coming to life in 21st century America. Just take all your money out of the bank and stop paying on all loans. The banks will collapse, and we will be free. It really is that simple. If people withdraw consent to our own slavery, it ceases to be. No, I'm not kidding. Things are going to get quite interesting, indeed. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. The wave will grow as millions of more people lose their jobs as the Depression ripples through the economy. Property owners are screwed for sure, and tenants a few months behind in rent won't recover, so eviction is the future there, and being six months behind in mortgage payments is impossible to recover from, too, so many of the millions in forbearance now will probably lose their homes. Just as happened in the Great Depression. Anticipate the bottom falling out of the Real Estate markets EVERYWHERE and many millions impoverished and homeless traveling to California to live in their car or set up a tent in the good weather. If you keep less than a year of savings to protect yourself from a financial downturn, then you are living on the edge. I do not see any recovery. I do not see improving employment. I do see everything falling apart under the people who are still working, until the point where working is pointless because there is nothing to buy or pay for. Then we all get acquainted with the human animal. Worse than lions for their cunning. Primitive violence is always the answer for Neanderthal man. No shortage of Neanderthals in big cities these days. Look for two more stimulus checks, August and October, in order to drag the system along through November 7th. After that, it will prove impossible to discontinue the gravy train, and UBI payments will be here to stay permanently (or at least until the big crash). Seriously. How long is this crap going to go on? We are going to pay people’s mortgages, rent, payroll, food bills, medical forever ???? It’s time to let it go. Reset the bubble economy to reasonable levels. The solution for the cities is probably to tax the hell out of the countryside with the spoils going to the cities. This is precisely what is going to happen. In Canada, they are getting ready to tax well-water because to their way of thinking - country folks are stealing the "people's" water. Wait for the whole of the USA to have to support New York federally. A New York tax to support the Communist city USA wide. Baltimore City has been trying to merge with Baltimore County for years to steal MORE from the suburbs. The FED bailed out Wall Street by creating money out of thin air, and now they expect the people to pay for their casino games with higher taxes. Massive evictions, homelessness, and empty shelves are coming soon, welcome to the hunger games. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, July 10, 2020
Wall Street Soars As Main Street Struggles
Wall Street Soars As Main Street Struggles
For the first time ever, more than half the US population is not working; the US economy is contracting at record pace; earnings expectations are collapsing at near record pace; interest-rates at record lows (and imputing negative rates by year-end); and stocks are soaring at their fastest pace ever. Main Street is the real economy that exists far from Wall Street. It can be seen in the large areas of America where most of us live. After twelve long years of near or zero interest rates, massive government deficits, and watching tons of money and stimulus being poured into the economy we remain mired in slow growth. On top of this, we now are seeing covid-19 monkey hammering many sectors of the economy into submission. Small businesses have taken the brunt of this assault. The demise of millions of small businesses underlines the bleak picture we face, this means unpaid rents and more empty storefronts as Main Street withers on the vine. Until now much of the damage has been masked by a massive government giveaway. Unfortunately, the damage all this has wrought will become apparent over the coming months from the strong headwinds facing our economy. Today the financial sector plays an oversize role in our economy as savers poured money into paper promises such as pensions, bonds, and stocks. Our economy continues to be propped up by a combination of unhealthy policies which include massive government spending on top of the artificially low-interest rates and easy money. This has allowed the mega-rich and politically connected to thrive while a huge majority of Americans wither on the vine. The price of stocks and action on Wall Street should not be confused with what is happening in homes across America.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tsunami of Unemployment , Store Closures and Homelessness !!
Tsunami of Unemployment , Store Closures and Homelessness !!
As the economic fallout from the coronavirus pandemic continues, About 19% of Americans made no housing payment at all during the first week of the month, and 13% paid only a portion of their rent or mortgage. 32% of U.S. households missed their July housing payments. The pandemic has intensified the rent burden on households across the nation. More than 20 million Americans may be evicted by September. 8,700 Stores Closing. Dunkin' is closing 450 locations by the end of 2020. Walgreens to cut 4,000 jobs. This only counts large corporations that are closing stores. Mom and pop shops are closing at a rate of 10 to 1 of corporate. This fake money that allows multi-national corporations to run decades while losing money bankrupts real enterprise. In the drive to make Bezos a Trillionaire, a few eggs had to be cracked. The US middle class is being eviscerated. As the unemployment payments drop and evictions become possible again, we are setting up for a lot of financial hardship and homelessness in the next few months. The FED is bluffing. They're almost out of ammo, and they know it. They jawbone to try to talk the market up, but in reality, they cannot continue to expand their balance sheet by trillions. They would eventually own every asset, and they know that's not sustainable. Enjoy it while you can you fed/banking shysters because the world is reaching the saturation point for your monopoly fiat. Soon people will demand something of real value for their assets. The banks give out loans to anyone with assets, which then loan against those assets, thus inflating the price of those assets. And when the FED keeps pumping trillions in liquidity and when they keep interest rates low, more people are willing to go into more debt for that cheap money. It's a system that can never pause or end; otherwise, it completely crashes. Much like a Ponzi scheme, you always need new people taking entering the system, taking on more debt. It sacrifices the stability of your economy in return for rapid value and asset growth, but the growth is done via financial instruments and not by actual industrial or agricultural expansion. Stock buybacks didn't help either. The central Banking ruined brick and mortar retailers. Commercial rents are retarded- you work three weeks a month just to pay the landlord and end up with no asset after decades. And with thousands of retail stores closing and the economy contracting, the next conversation Wall Street will have is about deep economic scarring and permanent job loss. On Thursday, we learned that another 1.3 million Americans filed new claims for unemployment benefits last week, and that number has now been above one million for 16 consecutive weeks. Not only do we have more than 30 million people unemployed, but the number is also actually climbing. Continuing claims for State unemployment and Federal unemployment offered through the CARES act (PUA) has actually been increasing over the past few weeks. It is currently up to 33 million. The fact that we're still seeing 1.3 million newly unemployed people collecting state benefits every week, months into this crisis is all the evidence you need to realize that the employment situation is nightmarishly bad. The notion that "only" 17.8 million people are unemployed is completely ridiculous. Things were supposed to be “getting back to normal” by now, but that hasn’t happened. Instead, we continue to see a tsunami of job losses that is absolutely unprecedented in American history. More than 33 million Americans have filed new claims for unemployment benefits over the past 15 weeks, well over 100,000 businesses have permanently closed their doors, and civil unrest has turned quite a few of our major cities into war zones. The New York Times is reporting that a million jobs have been lost in New York City, and the unemployment rate for NYC is hovering near 20 percent. And soon, as unemployment benefits start ending, those jobless people will no longer be counted. We are in a depression that hasn't neared bottom yet and has years to go. When unemployment "handouts" ends, the Depression begins. The lines at food banks already stretch for miles. We're not going to recognize the world in 2-3 years when we go driving around looking at all the old retail stores we used to visit. But think of all the pot dispensaries that will replace them. Nothing is going to be left besides FAAMG and the Fed. This is the " Twilight Zone, "Brought to you by the Federal Reserve and associated central bankers. The Fed has no choice but to continue creating digital funny money at an exponentially increasing rate. There is no alternative now. It is the only way to keep this shitshow from imploding . The future looks simple. The FED prints incredible amounts of money, and the value of the dollar goes down. The perfect scenario , permanent unemployment with a full bundle of free shite for life that is until the dollar fails which is the plan of all this pandemic. If someone didn’t see this coming BEFORE Covid-19, they were blind. Average earnings haven’t increased since the ’80s, inflation has been constant for decades, and Amazon rules purchase. This was baked in, Covid-19 just turned up the heat. Economic activity in America is not a sign of a body fighting for its life, but rather indicates a corpse with quivering maggots and bursting cysts of effluvium. And this is but the beginning.We are not going back, the collapse will continue, and we cannot stop it. What you see and hear today will be considered child's play tomorrow. Enjoy the ride folks we all asked for it. Main Street has been thrown under the bus by those politicians in bed with Amazon and Jeff Bezos. These people have sold us out for the promise of a few jobs in their districts. Retail closures come with a hidden cost to society than the average person fails to internalize. Retail closings will result in lots of other small businesses closing their doors. People often forget that the brick and mortar stores suffer several expenses not fostered upon online companies. Consumers might someday regret destroying their communities for the promise of free overnight shipping. The closing businesses, both large and small, are often viewed as the bedrock of our communities, and with the closing of each one, a little bit of us goes with them. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. For June 2020, the official Current Unadjusted U-6 unemployment rate is 18.3%! In March it was only 8.9%. And that's not counting the self-employed unemployed gig workers, or the unemployed who have been unemployed for so long they no longer count as unemployed. We're in a depression, not a recession, and don't even think about a recovery for the next year at least. But for some reason, Trump thinks the economy is beautiful and not in a depression. Try telling that to the 50 million unemployed, highest unemployment rate since the Great Depression, and those that will start being evicted to the streets, and those in the longest lines for food banks ever seen. No health care for an ever-growing segment of the population is a real problem with so many getting sick with hospital stays of many, many weeks and months. The bankruptcy courts will be overwhelmed next. Unemployment is WAY beyond the 2009 recession levels. All self-employed, 1099, gig workers on the Federal program are not counted in unemployment numbers. It's 10's of millions of people. Businesses who received paycheck protection program welfare MUST retain their payroll for a certain number of weeks. Once that money runs out, expect millions upon millions of more people on unemployment. The clock is ticking. So many sole proprietors have gone out of business, millions, and those businesses are closed forever. Wake up, people! Small businesses have been gutted like NEVER before. Once the Federal welfare stops flowing, this country WILL BE in the Greatest Depression of all time, and it will continue for decades. The print and TV media, which serve as propagandists for the ruling military/security complex and Wall Street elites, make certain that Americans have nothing but bogus orchestrated information. Every household and person who turns on the TV or reads a newspaper is programmed to live in a false orchestrated reality that serves the tiny few who comprise the ruling Establishment. The idea the Fed can hold up the market indefinitely is a fantasy. Anyone else old enough here to remember Hank Paulsen and his "giant bazooka" in the summer of 2008? By December 2008, the Fed had long ago cut Fed Funds from 5.25% to ZERO and tripled the balance sheet from $800 billion to $2,200 billion. The market was already down bigly. But over the next three months, the DOW dropped another 25%. Fed can save the day on any given day, the market can rally on vaccine new real or imaginary, but nothing can fix all the small companies that are going to end up broke, and the Fed can't save them either. The jobs lost by the bankruptcies and store closings are not coming back. They are gone. At what point will the banking system go on holiday, effectively limiting withdrawals to ATM's, then they bail-in by giving all depositors a haircut, especially large depositors. The Government could also nationalize (raid) private retirements cover all the underfunded state and city retirement systems. These could happen if the crowd that coined the discrediting posture against business owners with the line "you didn't build your own business, or you didn't plan, and saves, the government did that for you." What we are entering into now is going to make 1929 look like a picnic! Get ready for unrest when evictions begin to happen. People are already living in their vehicles along city streets, but this will be a magnitude unseen before in America. People with families will not have a job to report to, no food, no schools for their children, there will be many people/families wanting supportive action by the government. People will be in the city streets, city parks and in the countryside looking for food and opportunities. Imagine a modern version of the old migrant camps of the 1930s, the unsanitary conditions, the crime, the fear. The rise of the feared FEMA camp is coming to a Walmart Supercenter near you. Then the forced immunizations. This is beginning to sound like a dystopian movie. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, July 9, 2020
Top 4 Reasons Why 99% of Investors lose Money in Penny Stocks !
Top 4 Reasons Why 99% of Investors lose Money in Penny Stocks !
Top 4 Reasons why do 99% of investors lose money in penny stocks? Firstly let's understand the meaning of penny stock. What is a penny stock? Penny stocks are the stocks whose company’s market capitalization is very small, with little to no profits and minimal operations. The term penny stock is generally used interchangeably with micro-cap. Technically, micro-cap stocks are classified as such based on their market capitalization, while penny stocks are looked at in terms of their price. The main thing you have to know about a penny and micro stocks is that they are much riskier than regular stocks. Taking a penny stock is one of the riskier decisions that first-time investors often make. Four major factors make these securities riskier than blue-chip stocks. #1.Lack of Information. #2.No Minimum Standards. #3. Lack of History. #4.Liquidity. Make sure you look over any information the company offers, including its financials. Are these quality statements? If the company reports its statements on time and shows that the company is financially stable, it may point to a sound investment. Be sure to do some research on the company as well. Penny stocks aren't a lost cause, but they are very high-risk investments that aren't suitable for all investors. However, if you can't resist the small caps, make sure you do extensive research and understand what you are getting into. So here I have presented the brief of a penny stock through that you can see why most of the investors lose their money by investing in penny stocks. It requires deep knowledge and experience. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. Successful companies aren’t born as such. They pass all the stages, as well as any other company. Unfortunately, some investors believe that the search for the next "big thing" means to sift penny stocks with the hope of finding the next Microsoft or Wal-Mart. It's probably not the best strategy. Below I’ll use the terms “penny stocks” and “stocks with micro-cap,” which are interchangeable. Technically, the shares of micro-cap classified by their market capitalization, while penny stocks are considered in terms of their value. Definitions vary, but in general, stocks with a market capitalization of between $50M and $300M are shares with the micro-cap (less than $50M are nano-cap). According to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), any stock under $5 is a penny stock. Again, the definition can vary, some set the threshold at $3 while others believe that penny stocks only those stocks that are trading below $1. And finally, I believe that any shares are traded on the “pink sheets” or OTCBB are penny stocks. The main thing that you need to know about penny/micro-actions is that they are much riskier than regular stocks. For example, it is believed that junk bonds. (bonds with a rating lower than BBB) have a much higher risk than investment-grade bonds. (bonds with a rating higher than BBB). In the world of the penny, stocks are equivalent to a comparison of the shares with blue chips. What is the problem with these stocks? What makes penny stocks risky? You are faced with four problems when you decide to buy these stocks: The lack of information available to the public. One thing that I have always preached is that the key to a successful investment strategy is to get enough relevant information to make informed decisions. For stocks with a micro-cap information is much harder to find. Companies listed on the “pink sheets” are not required to submit documents to the SEC, and therefore do not attract the close attention of the public and are not regulated as the shares traded at the NYSE and NASDAQ exchanges. In addition, most of the information about promotions from the micro-cap, as a rule, not from a trusted source. There are no minimum standards. Stocks on the OTCBB and “pink sheets” should not perform the minimum standard requirements to stay in the trading system. That's why sometimes the stock is quoted in one of these trading systems. Once a company can no longer maintain its position on one of the largest stock exchanges, the company moves one of these small exchanges. While the OTCBB requires companies to promptly submit documents to the SEC, and “pink sheets” do not have such a requirement. Minimum standards act as a safety cushion for some investors and as a benchmark for some companies. Lack of history. Many companies that are considered to be shares with a micro-cap or newly formed, or are close to bankruptcy. These companies usually have a little story or none at all. As you can imagine, the lack of history of the company only increases the difficulty in choosing the right stocks. Liquidity. When the stock has not much liquidity, there are two problems: firstly, it is likely that you will not be able to sell the share, which is purchased. If shares of low liquidity levels, it can be difficult to find a buyer for it, and you may be required to reduce the price, as long as it does not seem attractive to another buyer. Second is the low level of liquidity allows some traders to control the prices of stocks, which is done in different ways: the easiest way is to buy a large number of shares, to revive it, and then sell after other investors find it attractive (a method known as “pump and dump”). Penny stocks have been a thorn in the eye of the SEC for some time, due to the fact that the lack of micro-capitalization stocks available information and poor liquidity of these groups do share an easy target for fraudsters. There are many different ways in which these people will try to separate you from your money, but there are two of the most common: #1.Biased recommendations. Some companies with micro-cap pay people who recommended shares of the company in a variety of media, for example, in newsletters, on financial TV channels, and radio broadcasts. You may receive a spam e-mail that tries to convince you to buy a particular stock. All e-mails, messages, and recommendations of this kind should be taken with a grain of salt. Try to find out whether to pay the authors of these recommendations for their services as per hand bad investments and ensure that all press releases are not given falsely by people who want to influence the share price. #2.Offshore brokers. Commission’s regulation allows companies that sell shares outside the United States to foreign investors, not to register the shares. These companies tend to sell shares at a discount to offshore brokers who, in turn, sell them back to investors with substantial gains in the United States. Phoning on the list of potential investors (who have enough money to buy a particular share) and supplying them with attractive information, these dishonest brokers will use aggressive sales tactics to persuade investors to buy shares. Two common misconceptions regarding penny stocks consist in the fact that many of today's stocks were once penny stocks, and that there is a positive relationship between the number of shares held by the person, and his income. Investors who are trapped in the first delusion to believe that Wal-Mart, Microsoft, and many other large companies were once penny stocks that grew into expensive stocks. Many investors make this mistake because they look at the “adjusted stock price” that accounts for all stock splits. Looking at Microsoft and Wal-Mart, you can see that their price in the first trading days was $28 and $25, although prices are subject splits up $0.09722 to $0.02444. Instead of starting with low market prices, these companies actually started quite high and constantly growing until they were broken up. The second reason why penny stocks attract many investors is the assumption that there is more room for growth and more opportunities to buy more shares. If the stock is trading at a price of $0.1 and increased by $0.05, you make 50% profit. It’s coupled with the fact that you can buy 10,000 shares, convinces investors that the shares of micro-cap are the fast and sure-fire way to increase the return on investment of $1,000. For some reason, people think about growth but forget about the fall. $0.1 Promotion price could just as easily go down by $0.05 and lost half its value. Often these shares don’t grow, and there is a high probability that you will lose all of your investment. Of course, some companies on the OTCBB and “Pink Sheets” can be good quality, and many companies on the OTCBB are working very hard to pierce their way to the more authoritative the NASDAQ and the NYSE. However, the downside is that there are many good opportunities in stocks that are not traded for pennies. You must understand that this is an area of high risk, which is not suitable for all investors. If you can not resist the temptation to share with micro-cap, make sure that you have done extensive research and understand what you're getting into. The reason why most investors lose money in penny stocks is that they don’t manage risk. Sure, that strategic hole is magnified by the inherent riskiness of the underlying assets (which you covered with an eloquence that I envy), but failure to manage risk is the key culprit. Many investors focus on returns, many investors trust in false profits (TA), and many investors over-manage their accounts. How often do “financial gurus” make statements like “penny stocks are short term games,” and “you have to concentrate wealth to build it?” I hear them all the time, and I think that they’re bogus, as they do nothing but increase fees and risks. As such, nobody should feel confident in an ability to pick penny stocks - ever. But the good news is that I’m finished with the bad news, and although it seems really bad, it’s actually not. If you’re watching this video about penny stocks, then, like a moth to a fire, you’re attracted by them, which suggests that the stocks do have some redeeming factors. Those redeeming factors are mouthwatering yields. Now the question becomes how to capture those impressive yields - which are there on the aggregate - all while avoiding the risks inherent in 90% of the stocks - all while managing costs. I believe that the answer to those questions is simple: #1. Admit that penny stocks go up on the whole - over a long amount of time and over a large spread, but few (if any) pick the time or the stock (irrespective of how much TA and other fake financial voodoo they do) #2. Admit that constant buying and selling eats into profits through taxes, commissions, bid-ask spreads (which tend to be wide with illiquid assets, like penny stocks), and so on. #3. Then marry those pieces together and build a wide, but shallow portfolio, and hold on to it as a long term investment. 70%-90% of the bets will probably bust, and the whole portfolio will likely have off years. But, over the long haul, the winners, who will win spectacularly, will almost certainly more than offset the (much larger) group of losers in a material way. And, as long as there isn’t over-trading (constant buy and selling), fees will be minimized. In the end, the portfolio will have ups and downs, but it will likely be too wide to completely fail (unless you do something crazy like over-lever), and it should see healthy returns (on the long run), despite being comprised of individually risky assets. (I told you the bad news wasn’t that bad!) The above is how I think penny stocks should be invested, and it’s why I think that saying 99% of people lose money because penny stocks are risky. Those individual risks can be managed. The real culprit is the failure to appropriately manage that risk. Don’t make trades in penny stocks without any advice. All the best. Happy trading!! This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Germany and The Whole Europe on the verge of a Disastrous Economic Cliff Edge
Germany and The Whole Europe on the verge of a Disastrous Economic Cliff Edge
Germany and The Whole Europe on the verge of a Disastrous Economic Cliff Edge. The eurozone economy will drop deeper into recession this year. Germany, the single largest and strongest economy in Europe and the world's fourth-largest economy, is already feeling the pinch. The impact of the coronavirus has seen Germany suffer its widest fall in production and output since the financial crisis a decade ago. The German economy will shrink by 6.3 percent this year. German Exports contracted by 3.1 percent. The Rest of Europe is not in any better shape. In fact, the French GDP is shrinking by 5.8 percent, Spain's GDP by 5.2 percent, Italy's GDP by 4.7 percent, and The Netherlands GDP by 1.7 percent. For the 27 countries that comprise the EU, a downturn of 8.3% is expected in 2020. The coronavirus crisis will push Europe into a deeper recession than originally thought. Europe’s coronavirus outbreak will be the biggest peacetime economic shock on record. And don't expect the European banks to help. Banks may face a tsunami of problems as three factors collide: rise in non-performing loans, deflationary pressures from a prolonged crisis, and central bank keeping negative rates that destroy banking profitability. The Euro-Zone was already in deep trouble before CoVid-19 hit, the weakness that started in 2017 never ended. The region simply isn't competitive. In the fourth quarter, even Germany entered a recession. France, Spain, and Italy are looking at continued large unemployment levels. Add to this the fact the EU lacks technological and intellectual property and is falling further behind China and the US. Recently they started promoting a huge stimulus package. To fund the €750BN package, the EU would borrow on financial markets and put in place a suite of proposed new EU taxes and levies to pay back the debt over the coming decades. Characterizing the current debacle as a deep recession is actually optimistic. The ongoing debasement of fiat, coupled with raging deflation, ensures a very entertaining near future of the deflation/inflation tango. The ongoing destruction of currency is provoking flights of funds into precious metals and crypto. The banking class in the EU is a cabal of lizards. They have been hiding risk for decades, and it has only gotten worse since the introduction of the Euro. In the Mediterranean countries, vast overvaluation of dodgy investments in property means that most of the Med banks are technically insolvent. One day the sacred cows will come home to roost. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. The EU economy is expected to experience a deeper recession this year than previously thought,... as the lifting of COVID-19 lockdown measures is proceeding at a slower pace than assumed in its Spring Forecast. According to the Summer 2020, Economic Forecast released on Tuesday. The EU economy will contract 8-point-7 percent in 2020. The contraction is significantly greater than the 7-point-4 percent projected in the previous forecast. Experts cite the far longer period of disruption and lockdown taking place in the second quarter of 2020. The challenge of unwinding stimulus is a lesson that’s long been apparent to central banks. More than a decade after the financial crisis, many had barely moved policy off emergency settings. Their efforts to get back to a more normal stance were on various occasions, scuppered by sluggish growth, weak inflation, or market volatility. European Governments have already pumped billions into support schemes and blown out their budgets in the process. Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government has vowed to spend whatever it takes to get the country growing again, including extending its renowned Kurzarbeit wage-support program. After years of German budget surpluses, that’s been welcomed by other nations, but the country is a rare exception in Europe. Most of its peers face stressed finances. Across Europe, many economies will suffer double-digit slumps in output in 2020. The big hit will be this quarter, the peak of lockdown restrictions. That’s almost certain to be followed by a steep rebound, but rocketing GDP numbers don’t necessarily translate into a sustainable recovery. The 19-nation euro region is set to shrink more than 8% this year, and European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde has warned that the pandemic will change parts of the economy permanently. Hundreds of thousands of workers are already facing unemployment, with companies from Deutsche Lufthansa AG -- Germany’s severely battered airline that just secured a government bailout -- to plane maker Airbus SE preparing to cut jobs. Furthermore, the two main private banks in Germany, Deutsche Bank, and Commerzbank would be on the verge of bankruptcy. The fourth regional bank, NordLB, was bailed out with state aid, which essentially ignored the current bail-in rules (instead applied everywhere else in Europe). And last November, the rating agency Moody revised its outlook on the German banking system downwards (from stable to negative). German cars are now only German in name only. They are designed in Germany by foreign nationals; the parts are built predominately in China or Eastern Europe and either: 1) The foreign parts are shipped to Germany, where the final assembly occurs. "Made in Germany" - or - 2) The whole car is made abroad, "Designed in Germany." If you want a real German car, Get an early 80s BMW. This is all the endpoint of the wonderful Globalization process. It's all driven by profit margins and tax "efficiency." To the benefit of their respective shareholders AND to the detriment of the average German worker. For those who hold equity in German OEMs, this outsourcing has been great, if you are a Handwerker who relies on domestic manufacturing for your job - you're materially disadvantaged. This current system is designed for the preservation of wealth for the top 5% of society - not the bottom 95%. When worker X makes €15 and hour and worker Y makes €3 an hour, shifting manufacturing from X to Y doesn't create efficiencies or improve anything - it just reduces cost, which isn't an efficiency in and of itself. A customs union only works with similarly situated populations, in the absence thereof (whereby a customs union with a very wealthy country and a very poor one) you have manufacturing develop in the poorer countries with services in the wealthier, something that if left unchecked leads to absurd realities. It's a complex problem which is manifesting itself in a multitude of horrible ways, but allowing good-paying blue-collar jobs to flee Germany to other nations benefits no one except the shareholders of the large OEMs, which is a small fraction of the population. In France, figures from Insee's statistics office, show activity in Europe’s second-largest economy still more than 10% below normal. The U.K. economy instantly shrank by a fifth in April alone. In Italy, even with the debt ratio set to top 150% of GDP this year, it’s extended tax breaks for companies and lengthened its furlough program for workers to 18 weeks from an initial 14 weeks. European governments are fast learning that they’ll have to live with aid programs to save jobs and businesses longer than thought to keep the economy from falling off a cliff. Across the continent, furlough programs that shielded close to 50 million jobs at the height of lockdowns, as well as tax deferrals and loan moratoriums, are being extended even as restrictions on movement are lifted. That’s because the sustainability of the economic bounce-back is uncertain, with many businesses still closed or serving fewer customers than before. The economy was already slowing for three years prior to COVID. An economic recession was expected. The whole world is going into recession at the same time. There will be no place to hide. Let's get real. The downturn in GDP for the developed world is closer to 25% despite the bloated response of governments pouring massive amounts of unsecured funds into supporting zombie companies and unemployed workers. Now with efforts to support social distancing being abandoned, there is a dark shadow on the horizon investors may ignore at their own risk. The GDP has turned into a circus of money rotating in circles without actual relation to average prosperity and productivity. Anyone with the intelligence of that surpassing a St. Bernard dog knows that the world has entered the early phase of a global economic depression. There will be NO "V" nor "W" recovery folks. No matter to what degree the Fed juices the S&P on the Market, there will be no actual recovery. It is all smoke and mirrors with many people at home, behind a computer, due to the COVID virus, mere amateurs, "buying low," whereas, the seasoned investors are on the sidelines. Many of these amateurs are "buying low" into already bankrupt companies. October and November will be the real telling point on the Markets. I've been expecting the quasi collapse of the Eurozone, and especially Italy, Greece, and Spain, for about ten years now. The perplexing thing, however, is that no matter how bad their economic and financial situation is, they still manage to limp along. Their solution so far is to just borrow the money, and if interest rates get too high, have your central bank create money and come in as a major buyer of your debt to get those pesky rates down. Several European countries have had even imposed negative rates to coerce people to spend rather than save the money to prevent deflation. How much longer do you think Europe can get away with this and keep it all going? The issue here is the European recession. But The US will be close behind. And we could be talking a Depression, not just a recession. "The virus" was just the pin, not the bubble, and the real bubble was caused by coordinated Central bank Policy. The U.S. will beat Europe to the cliff and be on the bottom before Europe even jumps off in November of 2020. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, July 7, 2020
👉Should You Invest in TESLA -- The Tulip Bulb Mania for Millennials and Robinhooders !!
👉Should You Invest in TESLA -- The Tulip Bulb Mania for Millennials and Robinhooders !!
With Tesla surpassing the market cap of every single auto market in the world last week, including Japanese giant Toyota, which in 2019 sold 10.6 million cars compared to Tesla's 367,500. Tesla has continued its relentless, steamrolling ascent, and with its stock rising as high as $1,400 after hours, its market cap is now well over $250BN (increasing by $50BN in just a few days). Having exploded from $1,000 to $1,400 in 5 short days, and five stock squeezes. Tesla Up 5% after hours and soaring to $1,500. From $375 in March to $1,500 in July. Tesla Is Now Bigger Than Intel, Verizon, AT&T, Walt Disney, And Bank of America. Bigger than Toyota! Despite the fact that Toyota sells 25 times more cars than Tesla. Tesla is now the most valuable car company in the world. Tesla's current stock price values the company at more than GM, Chrysler, and Ford combined, despite those three U.S. automakers also selling far more cars than Tesla does every year. Tesla is now worth more than Toyota, Disney, and Coke combined. Tesla’s valuation doesn’t make sense by any logical measure. 300% growth in stock price and never made a profit. Only 25 billion in revenue last year. But Tesla isn't consistently profitable enough to join the S&P 500. I can’t think of a bigger slap in the face to true capitalism than a seventeen-year-old company becoming the most valuable in the world before it ever makes a profit. I remember last year when everyone thought $420 was high. Tesla has just 0.5% of the Global Auto Market. And never a Profitable Year. They'll soon run out Time plus Quota of Carbon Credits to Sell. This is not Amazon. It's cars, a low margin business. We all know how this ends up. Much too much Capex required. Tesla is going to be a phenomenal crash. Tesla will crash 3 minutes after Musk cashes out. If Tesla goes to zero tomorrow, Chief Executive Officer Elon Musk will be caught stuffing all the corporate cash into his novelty branded short shorts and trying to flee to Mars. It will be interesting to see which comes first. Maybe that’s why Musk is pushing his profitability goal so hard. And don't forget kids, that we will be mining moon rocks in just a couple more years. Invest while you still can. Is Tesla's a technology company? a Car Company? a Space Company! It doesn’t matter. We are talking about CARS. GM, Toyota & Ford are producing millions of cars. Tesla delivered just over 360 thousand Electric Vehicles last year. Tesla is a barometer of how ridiculous the market is currently priced. Unless you're cruising around the high-income parts of town, you don't see a whole lot of Teslas around town. $65k for the model 3 performance. Even higher for the S, any questions on affordability. I can't imagine why I would spend time in my car playing with an iPad and doing software updates. Insurance costs are also very high. Fanboys aren't concerned with the reality of the majority of society. I know a Ponzi one when I see one, and this is even more egregious than 1999. Some will get rich; most will lose everything. The US stock market does nothing but prove the large schnoz ones are lying thieves. If enterprise value and capability meant anything, a corporation like Toyota would be worth $10 trillion. The fact that Home Depot is worth more than a global manufacturing powerhouse is proof positive that Wall Street needs to go. If someone thinks that Tesla value is right, then explain how it is bigger than: VW, BMW, Mercedes, GM, Ford, and Ferrari combined, or Toyota and VW combined, which last year sold over 20 million cars. VW Group has the following brands: VW, Audi, Lamborghini, Bentley, Porsche, Seat, and even other brands. Do you think it is right that a company that has only four cars could have a better value than companies that have more than 50 cars and trucks. Toyota and Honda make a lot more cars and better cars. Tesla is an amazing company, but the company value is out of this world. And morons are still buying this overpriced stock. They must be Robinhooder's pumping in all their allowance money. I've some Arizona coastline Tesla investors are sure to love. The bigger they are, the harder they fall. It will happen when the punters wake up. I think Tesla's current price makes more sense than tulips in Holland in the 1630's but less sense than Japanese stocks in 1987. Everybody is living in a Fed-induced unicorn fantasy that profits never matter or even having a sustaining business model. The company barely makes any money. The company has questionable accounting. The company couldn't figure out how to sell cars for a profit with government subsidies. The company was building cars in tents and letting them sit in the desert sun. Belief is interesting; it requires no proof, much like religion. This Elon guy convinced people he was in the desert sun 40 days and heard a voice tell him to make electric cars. He stole a true genius's name and made Tesla. I guess if it worked for every other religion and cult in the world, it could work for this one. Tesla is a joke, and so is the stock market. Tesla will lose 95% of its value in the coming stock market crash. Tesla is now bigger than Exxon. BlackRock has taken over Wall Street. Amazon is bigger than the top 15 banks combined. Even unprofitable, Uber and Lyft are threatening to overtake the $1-trillion auto industry, and they’ve only scratched the surface. Now, the worldwide $2-trillion auto industry is next in line for disruption. Tesla is now bigger than Netflix and Nvidia. At this rate, Tesla will even be bigger than Apple, but who cares? FED fully endorses it. Tesla is on AutoPilot and burning up the roadways. The auto industry is long overdue for a major blow. The U.S. puts such an emphasis on car ownership - in fact, it has built its infrastructure to encourage it. Owning a car is silly in 2020. Public transit should be a bigger focus for governments - it's cheaper and better for the environment. And to fill the gap, public transit can't fill - ride-sharing options are great. Until now, there were very few options if you really wanted to keep your carbon footprint in check. But Electric cars are a hoax. They burn more fossil fuels than regular autos. Autonomous driving requires lasers for sensing. Tesla uses visuals and is easily confused. That is the reason for the fiery crashes and deaths. Volkswagen, Yandex, Google, Intel, etc. have more advanced laser-based autonomous driving. If only "Nikola Tesla" had lived in a world with so much funny money. I actually love Tesla as a company, and Musk as a true entrepreneur. I just don't believe Tesla's current value is anything close to its print. Only government and bankster largesse make Tesla viable. This is a tulip bulb mania for Millenials. I'd rather bet on #17 on the roulette wheel. I'll let you know how that turns out tomorrow. Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to smash that like button. And as You know friends, google has demonetized this channel, so now I rely totally on your donations to keep this channel functional, as you know it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You. There are those who are in the club, those who think they are in the club, and those who are definitely not in the club. That is all. Are these people like Elon Musk really worth what they claim to be? The answer is no. They are paper billionaires. But there are few who actually are, and you won’t hear from them. Do you think they, these people CEO's CFO's, etc. are really worth 180, 250, 40, 20 billion dollars in real cash? I am talking real cash, hard cash, assets, not some paper fiat on paper. What is real PM/PI for Amazon? These little boys don't come close to real players. Real boys do have real cash, not paper cash. You know well where this is going. Companies living on illusions of making money, but in reality, they don’t but borrow to sustain their supposed profit on a market to have stock prices push in a certain way so investors can be. Tesla is one example. Everybody is living in a Fed-induced unicorn fantasy that profits never matter or even having a sustaining business model. The market cap of the top 15 stocks is approaching the equivalent of 50% of US GDP. Thank you, central banks of the world, for making thousands of fools into billionaires. At the rate TESLA's stock price is growing the past month, Musk will be the richest person on earth by August 15th. Yea, that Musk. You better start withdrawing cash from your banks and buying some Gold. By November, the US will be Zimbabwe 2.0. This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels, I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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