Sicily to sink like Greece

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Indeed Magna Grecia @leoni_katia: @Nouriel Fears mount over Sicily's sinking economy http://aje.me/MHljCX Remember Sicilia was Magna Grecia! " - in a twitter message

ROUBINI : Grexit before Fixit (Finland Exit)

NOURIEL ROUBINI : "Grexit before Fixit (Finland exit)? Hard to tell if 1st one to exit will be in core or periphery. Finland gotta get out be4 losses emerge " Roubini said in a twitter message " Finland exposed to Grexit & other periphery exits via EFSF, ESM and ECB's Target-2 balances. Its potential losses =0 if Finland exits early " he added

Roubini : Endgame for Eurozone is starting

Nouriel Roubini : " Endgame of EZ is starting: Greece will exit by 2013 while Italy & Spain will need a Troika program after half-baked attempts by ECB to help " said Roubini in a twitter message " Troika pressure on Greece:ECB not accepting collateral;Germany talking exit; IMF signaling prog stop. Posturing in game of chix or for real? " he added

Nouriel Roubini's Devastating Diagnosis

A'' perfect storm'' in 2013 on the world economy Professor Nouriel Roubini forecasted in a recent Reuters interview - Nouriel Roubini, is a professor at New York University who predicted the crisis of 2008. Roubini gives five factors contributing to the 2013 storm: the worsening crisis in Europe; tax increases and spending cuts in the U.S. could slip into recession, cooling Chinese economy, the slowdown in emerging markets, and the military confrontation in Iran.

Nouriel Roubini, the NYU economist nicknamed "Doctor Doom" for his prediction of the 2008 financial crisis, believes that events are again turning against the global economy. (July 18, 2012)

Roubini : If The US starts to sneeze The rest of the world will catch pneumonia

Nouriel Roubini : .....A significant equity-price correction could, in fact, be the force that in 2013 tips the US economy into outright contraction. And if the US (still the world’s largest economy) starts to sneeze again, the rest of the world – its immunity already weakened by Europe’s malaise and emerging countries’ slowdown – will catch pneumonia. - in project-syndicate

ROUBINI: Falling Stock Prices Will End The US Growth Fairy Tale

Nouriel Roubini : "The gravity of weaker growth will most likely overcome the levitational effect on equity prices from more quantitative easing, particularly given that equity valuations today are not as depressed as they were in 2009 or 2010. Indeed, growth in earnings and profits is now running out of steam, as the effect of weak demand on top-line revenues takes a toll on bottom-line margins and profitability. A significant equity-price correction could, in fact, be the force that in 2013 tips the US economy into outright contraction. And if the US (still the world’s largest economy) starts to sneeze again, the rest of the world – its immunity already weakened by Europe’s malaise and emerging countries’ slowdown – will catch pneumonia. .... " - in project syndicate
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Roubini : Greece, Portugal & Spain in a Free Fall Abyss

Nouriel Roubini : " Indeed it looks like a free fall abyss @ekathimerini: Greece, Portugal & Spain are staring into the same economic abyss http://dlvr.it/1tQPQx "roubini wrote in a twitter message
" From national to regional sovereign distress: Sicily in Italy;Valencia in Spain. Including such implicit liabilities public debts are higher " He added

Roubini: Global Perfect Storm Looms

Nouriel Roubini : " Next year the world's problems -- from the sputtering recovery in the U.S. to monetary crisis in Europe to the slowdown in China -- could overwhelm the economy,"
The euro zone needs to move quickly toward closer fiscal and political integration or risk falling off a cliff, says NYU economist Nouriel Roubini in this interview with Reuters TV on July 18, 2012

Nouriel : American Pie in the Sky

NEW YORK – While the risk of a disorderly crisis in the eurozone is well recognized, a more sanguine view of the United States has prevailed. For the last three years, the consensus has been that the US economy was on the verge of a robust and self-sustaining recovery that would restore above-potential growth. That turned out to be wrong, as a painful process of balance-sheet deleveraging – reflecting excessive private-sector debt, and then its carryover to the public sector – implies that the recovery will remain, at best, below-trend for many years to come.
Even this year, the consensus got it wrong, expecting a recovery to above-trend annual GDP growth – faster than 3%. But the first-half growth rate looks set to come in closer to 1.5% at best, even below 2011’s dismal 1.7%. And now, after getting the first half of 2012 wrong, many are repeating the fairy tale that a combination of lower oil prices, rising auto sales, recovering house prices, and a resurgence of US manufacturing will boost growth in the second half of the year and fuel above-potential growth by 2013.
CommentsThe reality is the opposite: for several reasons, growth will slow further in the second half of 2012 and be even lower in 2013 – close to stall speed. First, growth in the second quarter has decelerated from a mediocre 1.8% in January-March, as job creation – averaging 70,000 a month – fell sharply . in project syndicate
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Roubini : 5 Factors could derail the Global Economy

Five Factors could derail the Global Economy , Those factors are:

• A worsening of the debt crisis in Europe
• Tax increases and spending cuts in United Sates that may push the world’s biggest economy into recession
• A hard landing for China’s economy
• Further slowing in emerging markets
• A military confrontation with Iran

according to New York University Economics professor Nouriel Roubini “Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)…then we have a global perfect storm,” Roubini told Reuters in a recent interview - in Business Financial Post

Roubini sticks to 2013 Perfect Storm Prediction

Nouriel Roubini : "Next year is the time when the can becomes too big to kick it down (the road)...then we have a global perfect storm," Roubini said in a video interview with Reuters today

"There might be a weak rally because people are being cheered by more quantitative easing by (Chairman Ben) Bernanke and the Fed, but if the economy is weakening, that is going to put downward pressure on earnings growth," said Roubini.

Roubini : US Q3 Growth could be well below 1%

Nouriel Roubini : " US Q2 GDP growth looks like 1.2% at best. Q3 looks worse as fall in June sales & excessive inventories rise implies even weaker growth in Q3 " Roubini said today in twitter
" Q3 growth could be well below 1% given June sales report and unintended inventory build up. US at stall speed " he added

Nouriel Roubini : The UK likely to exit the EU within the Next 3 Years

Nouriel Roubini : "Will the UK exit the EU & when?Likely in the next 3yrs. Will the UK on net benefit from exit? There are benefits & cost. The net is a lil >0 " - in twitterNouriel Roubini : The UK likely to exit the EU within the Next 3 Years

Roubini : The Bankers should be Hanged in the streets

Nouriel Roubini : "To be exact I proposed hanging them in the streets rather than beheading @AlistairNic: @Nouriel @Williamw1 Your idea is beheading?Excellent! "
Nouriel said in a twitter message "So my idea is old @Williamw1: Fascinating context for Libor:in 13th cntry financier R. Lyons was imprisoned & then beheaded for rate rigging " He added in a second message

Deflation not Inflation is The Greater Risk

Nouriel Roubini : " Indeed inflation expectations are very low:rather greater risk of deflation @NYTimeskrugman:Is Our Economists Learning? http://nyti.ms/LnPb5A " - in Twitter

Roubini : Consumer sentiment weakens further in July

Nouriel Roubini : Consumer sentiment weakens further in July in spite of lower oil prices. Perhaps because such low oil prices reflect global growth weakness - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : A Perfect Storm by Next Year

Nouriel Roubini : "All of it matters in the sense that we're kicking the can down the road. The Europeans do not want to make the decisions and there will be political elections in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. We have the U.S. presidential election and until then, we're not going to do anything about our fiscal problem. In China, there is a stall right now because of the leadership transition that happens once in a decade and important decisions about their growth model has to be done. The problem is that every part of the world is kicking down the road to 2013. At this time we're reaching a point in which by next year, you could be in a scenario in which we hit a brick wall, and then euro zone breaks up, in the U.S. you have a fiscal cliff, in China the landing could be hard and in the Middle East you could have a war. That is a perfect storm." - in Bloomberg

Roubini : Italy can threaten to leave The Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : " Not a bluff:Italy can credibly threaten to leave EZ if Germany/ECB don't help @juanmjm: Bluff? MT: @Nouriel: Italy pressuring Ger/ECB to act "says Roubini in a twitter message
" Italy pressuring Ger/ECB to act @ReutersJamie: Wow:bank of italy governor says euro zone breakup a possibility,albeit a "remote possibility" " He added

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Finland doing its best to dig the Eurozone grave while not falling in it

" Finland's creeping exit from EZ (Fixit): collateral 4 Greece bailout;opposition 2 EFSF/ESM flex use;collateral request for EFSF Spain rescue " says Nouriel Roubini in a twitter message
" Finland creeping exit from EZ goes on: after opposing flex use of ESM/EFSF it now demands collateral for its share of EFSF Spain bank rescue "
"Finnish PM says the euro area is in a “very dangerous situation” while Finland is doing its best to dig the EZ grave while not falling in it " Roubini added - Finland’s prime minister, Jyrki Katainen, issued a warning Wednesday that the euro’s predicament was as perilous as at any time in the past two years. “This situation is dangerous, very dangerous,” he said in an interview with Finland’s biggest daily, Helsingin Sanomat.

Nouriel Roubini : in 2013 we will hit a Brick Wall

Nouriel Roubini :"All of it matters in the sense that we're kicking the can down the road. The Europeans do not want to make the decisions and there will be political elections in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. We have the U.S. presidential election and until then, we're not going to do anything about our fiscal problem. In China, there is a stall right now because of the leadership transition that happens once in a decade and important decisions about their growth model has to be done. The problem is that every part of the world is kicking down the road to 2013. At this time we're reaching a point in which by next year, you could be in a scenario in which we hit a brick wall, and then euro zone breaks up, in the U.S. you have a fiscal cliff, in China the landing could be hard and in the Middle East you could have a war. That is a perfect storm." - in Bloomberg

Roubini : ‏2013 Perfect Storm Scenario

Nouriel Roubini ‏:" If perfect storm occurs difference btw 2008 & now is:then we had all the policy bullets;now we running out of rabbits to pull out of the hat "
Roubini wrote in twitter " 2013 perfect storm scenario I wrote on months ago is unfolding: EZ crisis, US stall speed, China hard landing, EM stall, MidEast time bomb " He added

Roubini : 2013 Storm May Surpass 2008 Crisis

Roubini : 2013 Storm May Surpass 2008 Crisis

July 7 (Bloomberg) -- New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini from Aix-en-Provence, France talks to Bloomberg TV about what he calls "greedy" bankers, the euro-zone crisis and risks facing the global economy in 2013. " ...the incentives of the banks are still to cheat or to do things that are immoral and the only way top avoid that is to break-up this financial supermarket " Roubini says Bankers are greedy and they have been greedy for the last 2000 years he explains " i think that by 2013 the ability of the politicians to kick the can down the road is going to run out of steam , in the Eurozone the slow motion train wreck could become a faster motion train wreck , the US looks like close to stall motion and another recession given the recent economic data the landing of China is becoming harder rather than softer , the other emerging markets are also sharply slowing down all of the BRICKS , China Russia India Brazil also Mexico and Turkey and a lot of other emerging markets partly because of the recession in the Eurozone in the UK and now stall speed in the US and finally there is the time bomb of a potential war between Israel the US and Iran ...so it is a perfect storm...": says Nouriel Roubini

Roubini : Eurozone is back to Extreme Crisis

Nouriel Roubini : With Ita/Spa spreads back close to highs, Germany vetoing Ebonds, ECB resisting QE, ESM/EFSF bazooka too small, EZ is back to extreme crisis- in twitter

Roubini : The real issue is what QE4 or QE5 will look like,

Nouriel Roubini : The issue is not whether or when the Fed does QE3; it is rather what will QE4 or QE5 look like, as I argued over a year ago. - in twitter

Roubini : Central Banks Worldwide are Worried

Nouriel Roubini : " ECB brings deposit rate to 0%. But it could in the future push it to a negative rate to induce banks not to hoard excess reserves at the ECB Expand "
"Trifecta today of monetary easing / policy rate cuts: PBOC, BOE & now ECB. A clear sign of how weak global growth is & how worried CBs are" - in twitter

Chinese Slowdown : China cuts interest rate by 25 bps

Nouriel Roubini : " Another sign of how worried Chinese policy makers are about slowing growth in China @theanalyst_hk: China cuts interest rate by 25 bps " - in Twitter

Roubini : Germany will have to accept debt mutualization or debt monetization by the ECB

Nouriel Roubini : " To backstop Italy/Spain flex use of ESM/EFSF isn't enough. Germany will have to accept debt mutualization or debt monetization by the ECB " - in twitter

Roubini : Italian Recession shows no sign of bottoming out

Nouriel Roubini : " I am back to Rome from Florence for more policy meetings today. Italian recession shows no sign of bottoming out " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini in Italy for a keynote speech on the Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : " After Paris and London I am today in Rome for policy meetings and a keynote speech " "I am keynote speaker today at a conference on the Eurozone at the European University Institute in Fiesole on the hills near Florence" Roubini added in a second twitter message Roubini will held his speech at The European University Institute in old Badia Fiesolana near Florence. Location of Eurozone conference

Roubini : Merkel wrong on Eurobonds

Nouriel Roubini : "She was talking to both of them. The trouble is if there is not going to be an agreement on some point on having e-bonds I think the situation in Europe is going to become disorderly. Italy and Spain were are doing massive fiscal adjustment, but their spreads are still very high...At some point the Germans will decide, do I take the credit risk of backstopping Spanish and Italian debt in exchange for some loss of national fiscal sovereignty by Italy and Spain in which case the euro zone has a chance to survive. Otherwise, this will become disorderly in the next few months." - in Bloomberg

Roubini : More Monetary Easing Everywhere

Nouriel Roubini : "Everyone is going to do more monetary easing...We live in a world in which the problems of the advanced economies are not problems of liquidity. Banks have plenty of liquidity. The problems are fundamental solvency. So just throwing money at it implies that the loss will continue to collapse and banks will hold extra money in the form of excess reserves. The credit mechanism is broken and there is no creation of growth in most advanced economies. So it doesn't affect real economic activity."

Roubini : Eurozone malaise spreads across the Atlantic

Nouriel Roubini : " US consumer sentiment in a funk; consumer spending stalled. EZ malaise spreads across the Atlantic.Consumers/firms frozen as tail risks loom " - in twitter

Roubini on what matters most right now politically

Roubini : "All of it matters in the sense that we're kicking the can down the road. The Europeans do not want to make the decisions and there will be political elections in Germany, Italy and other parts of Europe. We have the U.S. presidential election and until then, we're not going to do anything about our fiscal problem. In China, there is a stall right now because of the leadership transition that happens once in a decade and important decisions about their growth model has to be done. The problem is that every part of the world is kicking down the road to 2013. At this time we're reaching a point in which by next year, you could be in a scenario in which we hit a brick wall, and then euro zone breaks up, in the U.S. you have a fiscal cliff, in China the landing could be hard and in the Middle East you could have a war. That is a perfect storm."

Roubini on German leadership

Roubini : "There is this gap between them saying we don't want to take all this credit risk of backstopping of $3 trillion of Spanish and Italian debt. We don't want to take all the credit risk of backstopping all the deposits of the euro zone. But then the other side says, unless you do something about it, in spite of our fiscal effort, the spreads are so high, the disintegration fragmentation of the banking system is becoming worse, and therefore we're going to end up in a complete cliff. The German one side the one guarantees that these guys do enough reform and austerity, the other side says we're doing it, but spreads are so high that it's become unsustainable."

Roubini : The Recession will become a Depression

Nouriel Roubini : "It's not just a slowdown...The recession will become a depression. Output has fallen from the peak 15% in Greece. The same thing in Spain...This could become like Japan, but worse. Japan did not have a sovereign debt crisis because it was a net creditor country. But all of these countries are net debtors. They would be lucky to end up in stagnation like Japan. It's getting worse, there's already a sovereign debt crisis, a banking crisis, a balance of payment crisis, an economic crisis and all of those things together are getting worse."

Roubini : Europe Situation May Turn Disorderly

Europe Situation May Turn Disorderly, Roubini

Roubini : "The European leaders already had 18 summits of the leaders in the past two years. The last summit, the headline newspaper was the leaders decided to postpone key decisions. Now there are 19 summits. Now they're supposed to come up in one summit with a political union, with a banking union, with a fiscal union, with a transfer union, with a growth compact and resolve the problems that haven't been resolved for years. Changes are the Germans are want to say no to European-wide deposit insurance."

Roubini: Two Futures for Europe

There are two futures for Europe says NYU Stern Professor of Economics Nouriel Roubini ,either you move forward or you move backward either disintegration or integration says Roubini , Europe either will implement policies that are going to restore growth , competitiveness , external balance and restore debt sustainability and gradually bring greater integration in union in the Eurozone , either this or Europoe will face disintegration Roubini says , monetary unions without fiscal and political union do not work and are doomed to fail explains Nouriel Roubini

Roubini : A Chinese hard landing is more likely

Nouriel Roubini : "A chinese hard landing is more likely @ReutersChina: China factories in 8th month of contraction: PMI (By @HornbyLucy) " - in twitter

Roubini : In Greece The Fox is back to guard the chicken hoop

Nouriel Roubini : "The fox is back to guard the chicken hoop: New Democracy that caused a deficit of 15% of GDP when last in power is back to run he Greek govt" roubini wrote in a twitter message today

Roubini : Eurozone Recession extending to the Core / Germany

Nouriel Roubini :"Germany has the weakest composite - manufacturing and services - PMI reading in three years. EZ recession extending to the core" Roubini wrote in a twitter message today

Roubini : In Italy The Business & Political Lobbies favor Euro Exit

Nouriel Roubini : "Berlusconi outburst confirms what I wrote in my last paper:powerful business/political lobbies in Italy favor Euro exit http://bit.ly/Md57XF "
"In Italy Berlusconi/his party is anti-euro; the Lega Nord has always been anti-euro & popular new Movimento 5 Stelle of Grillo is anti-Euro"
"Berlusconi says: "It isn't blasphemous to exit the Euro" signaling the he/his party & powerful business interests want to return to the Lira" He added in a second twitter message

Roubini : The Tensions in the Middle East could reach a boil by 2013

Nouriel Roubini :...Finally, long-simmering tensions in the Middle East between Israel and the US on one side and Iran on the other on the issue of nuclear proliferation could reach a boil by 2013. The current negotiations are likely to fail, and even tightened sanctions may not stop Iran from trying to build nuclear weapons. With the US and Israel unwilling to accept containment of a nuclear Iran by deterrence, a military confrontation in 2013 would lead to a massive oil price spike and global recession. These risks are already exacerbating the economic slowdown: equity markets are falling everywhere, leading to negative wealth effects on consumption and capital spending. Borrowing costs are rising for highly indebted sovereigns, credit rationing is undermining small and medium-size companies, and falling commodity prices are reducing exporting countries’ income. Increasing risk aversion is leading economic agents to adopt a wait-and-see stance that makes the slowdown partly self-fulfilling. - in Project-syndicate

Roubini : 3 Scenarios for Spain & Italy

Nouriel Roubini : " 3 scenarios for Spain & Italy: 1. current Muddle Through works; 2. Full Troika Bailout; 3. Full Monty of fiscal/banking/political union" in twitter " Muddle Through is failing as Spain & Italy are on verge of losing market access. Thus 2 other options are Full Troika Bailout or Full Monty" he added " Full Monty is fiscal union with E-bonds, banking union w EZ-wide deposit insurance, growth compact, less fiscal austerity, political union" Roubini explained in another twitter message " Full Monty unacceptable to Germany. Thus if Muddle Through likely fails with Spain/Italy losing mkt access Full Troika Bailout only option " he ended

Roubini : In 6-12 months Greece will fall into Depression and hav new Elections

Nouriel Roubini : "In 6-12 months ND-Pasok gov will fall as economy will fall into a depression. Then new elections will lead Syriza to win & Grexit to occur" in twitter , the can will become a wall of bricks says Nouriel Roubini " Until by 2013 it will become real heavy and will hit a thick brick wall! @ianbremmer: Greece to World: Yes, We Can (Kick That Can)!!!"

Greece is a side show now Spain and Italy may need a full bailout

Nouriel Roubini : " Regardless of Greece elections, if spread remain elevated & rising in Spain and Italy, both may lose market access & need a full bailout " Roubini wrote in Twitter " Indeed Greece is a side show now. Italy/Spain are key @gideonrachman: @Nouriel Spot on Nouriel.Fate of euro will be decided in Spain & Italy " He added " Greece is a side show. Italy & Spain may lose market access & need Troika rescue regardless of Greek elections as Spain bank rescue botched " Roubini explained in a second message " EZ loss of market access & bailout domino: Greece, Ireland, Portugal. Soon Cyprus. Next Spain. Then Italy if Spain goes. Finally France...? "

Roubini : The Chinese Unsustainable Growth Model could be underwater by 2013

Nouriel Roubini : In the east, China, its growth model unsustainable, could be underwater by 2013, as its investment bust continues and reforms intended to boost consumption are too little too late. A new Chinese leadership must accelerate structural reforms to reduce national savings and increase consumption’s share of GDP; but divisions within the leadership about the pace of reform, together with the likelihood of a bumpy political transition, suggest that reform will occur at a pace that simply is not fast enough. CommentsThe economic slowdown in the US, the eurozone, and China already implies a massive drag on growth in other emerging markets, owing to their trade and financial links with the US and the European Union (that is, no “decoupling” has occurred). At the same time, the lack of structural reforms in emerging markets, together with their move towards greater state capitalism, is hampering growth and will reduce their resiliency. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini: Dark clouds are gathering around the world

Nouriel Roubini : Dark, lowering financial and economic clouds are, it seems, rolling in from every direction: the eurozone, the United States, China, and elsewhere. Indeed, the global economy in 2013 could be a very difficult environment in which to find shelter.
For starters, the eurozone crisis is worsening, as the euro remains too strong, front-loaded fiscal austerity deepens recession in many member countries, and a credit crunch in the periphery and high oil prices undermine prospects of recovery. The eurozone banking system is becoming balkanized, as cross-border and interbank credit lines are cut off, and capital flight could turn into a full run on periphery banks if, as is likely, Greece stages a disorderly euro exit in the next few months.
CommentsMoreover, fiscal and sovereign-debt strains are becoming worse as interest-rate spreads for Spain and Italy have returned to their unsustainable peak levels. Indeed, the eurozone may require not just an international bailout of banks (as recently in Spain), but also a full sovereign bailout at a time when eurozone and international firewalls are insufficient to the task of backstopping both Spain and Italy. As a result, disorderly breakup of the eurozone remains possible. - in his latest Project Syndicate article

Roubini - Eurozone Banking system: fragmentation, balkanization, dis-integreation

Nouriel Roubini : "EZ banking system: fragmentation, balkanization, dis-integreation as cross-border, interbank, wholesale funding rolls off & smart money runs " - in twitter

Roubini : Merkel should Issue a €1,000 Travel Voucher for every German

Economist Nouriel Roubini advises the German Chancellor Angela Merkel to provide her people with motives to visit Greece, thus boosting its economy. In particular he suggests that every German household be granted a €1,000 travel voucher so that it can plan its holidays in countries facing economic dire straits, such as Greece, Spain and Portugal. He also suggested Germany should introduce tax breaks for people who buy vacation homes in Southern Europe.

Roubini : The Eurozone needs greater integration for greater stability

12 June 2012 - Nouriel Roubini Exclusive interview with RT : The Eurozone needs greater integration for greater stability says Nouriel Roubini , If the Eurozone is to survive, monetary union is not sufficient, explains economist Nouriel Roubini, who predicted the collapse of the US housing market and and the global recession in 2008.