Roubini : Kuwait, as other Gulf economies, needs to diversify away from oil

Nouriel Roubini : Kuwait, as other Gulf economies, needs to diversify away from oil/energy to deal with effects of lower oil prices. But reform is very slow. - via Twitter





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: China Slowdown May Be Sharp

Feb. 4 -- Roubini Global Economics Chairman Nouriel Roubini discusses the slowing Chinese economy on “In The Loop.”





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Greece Won’t Rule Out Russian Financial Aid

Feb. 4 -- Roubini Global Economics Chairman Nouriel Roubini discusses his outlook for Greece. He speaks on “In The Loop.”





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Fundamentals Suggest Gradual Oil Price Increase

 Feb. 4 -- Bloomberg’s Isaac Arnsdorf reports on the impact of low oil prices on shale oil producers. Roubini Global Economics Chairman Nouriel Roubini also speaks on “In The Loop.”






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Tax the Rich to Solve Income Inequality

 Feb. 4 -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics, talks with Betty Liu about the problem of income inequality. He speaks on “In The Loop.”







 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Bitcoin was the world’s worst-performing currency in 2014, its value falling by almost 60%

One result of this global monetary-policy activism has been a rebellion among pseudo-economists and market hacks in recent years. This assortment of “Austrian” economists, radical monetarists, gold bugs, and Bitcoin fanatics has repeatedly warned that such a massive increase in global liquidity would lead to hyperinflation, the US dollar’s collapse, sky-high gold prices, and the eventual demise of fiat currencies at the hands of digital krypto-currency counterparts.

None of these dire predictions has been borne out by events. Inflation is low and falling in almost all advanced economies; indeed, all advanced-economy central banks are failing to achieve their mandate – explicit or implicit – of 2% inflation, and some are struggling to avoid deflation. Moreover, the value of the dollar has been soaring against the yen, euro, and most emerging-market currencies. Gold prices since the fall of 2013 have tumbled from $1,900 per ounce to around $1,200. And Bitcoin was the world’s worst-performing currency in 2014, its value falling by almost 60%.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/unconventional-monetary-policies-and-fiscal-stimulus-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-02#KaX8xT61WvvPVTjS.99



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: On Secular Stagnation

Nouriel Robin: On Secular Stagnation: “Who would have thought that six years after…

    …advanced economies would still be swimming in an alphabet soup… of unconventional monetary policies?… Just in the last year and a half, the European Central Bank adopted its own version of FG, then moved to ZIRP, and then embraced CE, before deciding to try NDR…. One result of this global monetary-policy activism has been a rebellion among pseudo-economists and market hacks… ‘Austrian’ economists, radical monetarists, gold bugs, and Bitcoin fanatics… repeatedly warned that such a massive increase in global liquidity would lead to hyperinflation, the US dollar’s collapse, sky-high gold prices, and the eventual demise of fiat currencies at the hands of digital krypto-currency counterparts. None of these dire predictions has been borne out….

    Most of the doomsayers have barely any knowledge of basic economics. But that has not stopped their views from informing the public debate…. Unemployed workers… chasing too few available jobs… trade and globalization… labor-saving technological innovations… squeezing workers’ jobs and incomes…. Slack in real-estate markets where booms went bust…. North America’s shale-energy revolution has weakened oil and gas prices…. China’s slowdown has undermined demand for a broad range of commodities… a global glut of manufactured and industrial goods…. Rising income inequality, by redistributing income from those who spend more to those who save more, has exacerbated the demand shortfall. So has the asymmetric adjustment between over-saving creditor[s]… and over-spending debtor[s]….

    Perhaps more important has been a profound mismatch with fiscal policy. To be effective, monetary stimulus needs to be accompanied by temporary fiscal stimulus, which is now lacking in all major economies…. With long-term interest rates close to zero in most advanced economies (and in some cases even negative), the case for infrastructure spending is indeed compelling…. All of this adds up to a recipe for continued slow growth, secular stagnation, disinflation, and even deflation…. In the absence of appropriate fiscal policies… unconventional monetary policies will remain a central feature of the macroeconomic landscape.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

An Unconventional Truth by Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – Who would have thought that six years after the global financial crisis, most advanced economies would still be swimming in an alphabet soup – ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR, and U-FX Int – of unconventional monetary policies? No central bank had considered any of these measures (zero interest rate policy, quantitative easing, credit easing, forward guidance, negative deposit rate, and unlimited foreign exchange intervention, respectively) before 2008. Today, they have become a staple of policymakers’ toolkits.

Indeed, just in the last year and a half, the European Central Bank adopted its own version of FG, then moved to ZIRP, and then embraced CE, before deciding to try NDR. In January, it fully adopted QE. Indeed, by now the Fed, the Bank of England, the Bank of Japan, the ECB, and a variety of smaller advanced economies’ central banks, such as the Swiss National Bank, have all relied on such unconventional policies.

One result of this global monetary-policy activism has been a rebellion among pseudo-economists and market hacks in recent years. This assortment of “Austrian” economists, radical monetarists, gold bugs, and Bitcoin fanatics has repeatedly warned that such a massive increase in global liquidity would lead to hyperinflation, the US dollar’s collapse, sky-high gold prices, and the eventual demise of fiat currencies at the hands of digital krypto-currency counterparts.

None of these dire predictions has been borne out by events. Inflation is low and falling in almost all advanced economies; indeed, all advanced-economy central banks are failing to achieve their mandate – explicit or implicit – of 2% inflation, and some are struggling to avoid deflation. Moreover, the value of the dollar has been soaring against the yen, euro, and most emerging-market currencies. Gold prices since the fall of 2013 have tumbled from $1,900 per ounce to around $1,200. And Bitcoin was the world’s worst-performing currency in 2014, its value falling by almost 60%.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/unconventional-monetary-policies-and-fiscal-stimulus-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-02#7lRAGkR7E6uxPbj7.99



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Art is used for Tax avoidance and Money Laundering

From the FT:

“Whether we like it or not, art is used for tax avoidance and evasion,” Prof Roubini said. “It can be used for money laundering. You can buy something for half a million, not show a passport, and ship it. Plenty of people are using it for laundering.”




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Debate : If China does well it’s good for India & If India does well it’s good for China

World Economic Forum Annual Meeting 2015 on the theme India's Next Decade How will the world's most populous democracy revive and accelerate economic modernization, growth and job creation? This session was developed in partnership with NDTV.
Speakers: Hari S. Bhartia, Nouriel Roubini, Arun Jaitley, Vikram Chandra, Chanda Kochhar





India is once again on track economically compared to its position last year. This change is due to a favourable macroeconomic environment and the Modi government’s ambitious programme of reform. Liberalization and structural change is improving investor confidence. Still, for India to achieve its growth potential, the Modi government must doggedly follow its agenda and not be derailed by competing political and social interests.
 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini on Ten Trends in Global Economy

Jan. 21 -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business . NOURIEL ROUBINI: Popularly known as Dr. Doom, which was the title of a profile in The New York Times Magazine in August of 2008 , Having been among the few to predict that the collapse of the U.S. housing market would lead to a global financial crisis years before disaster struck

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Davos 2015: Nouriel Roubini targets Art Market for criticism

Regulation is needed in the global art market because it is vulnerable to money laundering, tax evasion, trading on inside information and price manipulation, according to one of the world's most respected economists.

Professor Nouriel Roubini, an economist at New York University's Stern School and himself an art collector, said the market had to regulate itself or be subjected to external regulation because it had weaknesses that would not be allowed in other kinds of financial markets, such as equities.
"Whether we like it or not, art is used for tax avoidance and evasion," Prof Roubini said. "It can be used for money laundering. You can buy something for half a million, not show a passport, and ship it. Plenty of people are using it for laundering."
 read more @ http://www.euro2day.gr/ftcom_en/article-ft-en/1296408/davos-2015-nouriel-roubini-targets-art-market-for.html




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Income Inequality Creates U.S. Plutocracy

Jan. 21 -- NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini, talks about income inequality in the United States. He speaks with Tom Keene from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Fed May Tighten Early, Posing Risk of New Crisis

 Economist Nouriel Roubini sees U.S. labor market improving faster than Fed expected but worries about untested macroprudential policies, and China slowdown.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: QE not enough for Eurozone

Economist Nouriel Roubini, known for predicting the global financial crisis of 2008, spoke to CNN's Nina dos Santos on why he thinks the Eurozone is more fragile than the US.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Crisis Is `Not Over' in Global Economy

 Jan. 21 -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, talks about financial markets, the global economy and oil prices.





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Deflation Needs Monetary, Fiscal Policy

Jan. 21 -- NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini, discusses the need for a combination of monetary and fiscal policy in the fight against deflation. He speaks with Tom Keene from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg








Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Deflation Needs Monetary, Fiscal Policy

Jan. 21 -- NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini, discusses the need for a combination of monetary and fiscal policy in the fight against deflation. He speaks with Tom Keene from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”






Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Davos 2015: Nouriel Roubini says Income Inequality Creates U.S. Plutocracy

 Jan. 21 -- NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini, talks about income inequality in the United States. He speaks with Tom Keene from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini talks about Deflation from Davos

Nouriel Roubini: SNB Signals Last Line Against Deflation May Fail
Jan. 21 -- NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini, talks about deflation in light of the action taken last week by the Swiss National Bank. He speaks with Tom Keene from the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland on “Bloomberg Surveillance.”





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Explains The Right Fiscal Policies

 Nouriel Roubini, professor at NYU's Stern School of Business, noted in a recent column : "The right policies – less fiscal austerity in the short run, more public investment spending, and less reliance on monetary easing – are the opposite of those that have been pursued by the world’s major economies. No wonder global growth keeps on disappointing."





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini on a global shift shaping the new context

Nouriel Roubini on a global shift shaping the new context




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Monetary Easing is not Purely Zero-Sum

As fiscal austerity and asymmetric adjustment have taken their toll on economic performance, monetary policy has borne the burden of supporting faltering growth via weaker currencies and higher net exports. But the resulting currency wars are partly a zero-sum game: If one currency is weaker, another currency must be stronger; and if one country’s trade balance improves, another’s must worsen.

Of course, monetary easing is not purely zero-sum. Easing can boost growth by lifting asset prices (equities and housing), reducing private and public borrowing costs, and limiting the risk of a fall in actual and expected inflation. Given fiscal drag and private deleveraging, lack of sufficient monetary easing in recent years would have led to double and triple dip recession (as occurred, for example, in the eurozone).  - in Project Syndicate






Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Emerging Markets -- American Program Bureau Speakers

 One of the most renowned economists of his generation, Dr. Nouriel Roubini is widely recognized for predicting the collapse of the US housing market and the global recession of 2008. An ardent researcher and strategist, Dr. Roubini is an expert on when and why economic crises happen, and was named one of Fortune's "10 new gurus you should know." He has served in a number of important positions, from senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors to director of policy development at the US Treasury Department, where he worked on the resolution of the Asian financial crisis of the late '90s and the reform of international financial architecture. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have also drawn upon his consulting expertise.





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The cause of the latest Currency Turmoil is clear

The cause of the latest currency turmoil is clear: In an environment of private and public deleveraging from high debts, monetary policy has become the only available tool to boost demand and growth. Fiscal austerity has exacerbated the impact of deleveraging by exerting a direct and indirect drag on growth. Lower public spending reduces aggregate demand, while declining transfers and higher taxes reduce disposable income and thus private consumption. 

In the eurozone, a sudden stop of capital flows to the periphery and the fiscal restraints imposed, with Germany’s backing, by the European Union, the International Monetary Fund, and the ECB have been a massive impediment to growth. In Japan, an excessively front-loaded consumption-tax increase killed the recovery achieved this year. In the US, a budget sequester and other tax and spending policies led to a sharp fiscal drag in 2012-2014. And in the United Kingdom, self-imposed fiscal consolidation weakened growth until this year.
 Roubini wrote recently in Project Syndicate




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Return of Currency Wars by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

NEW YORK – The recent decision by the Bank of Japan to increase the scope of its quantitative easing is a signal that another round of currency wars may be under way. The BOJ’s effort to weaken the yen is a beggar-thy-neighbor approach that is inducing policy reactions throughout Asia and around the world.

Central banks in China, South Korea, Taiwan, Singapore, and Thailand, fearful of losing competitiveness relative to Japan, are easing their own monetary policies – or will soon ease more. The European Central Bank and the central banks of Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, and a few Central European countries are likely to embrace quantitative easing or use other unconventional policies to prevent their currencies from appreciating.

All of this will lead to a strengthening of the US dollar, as growth in the United States is picking up and the Federal Reserve has signaled that it will begin raising interest rates next year. But, if global growth remains weak and the dollar becomes too strong, even the Fed may decide to raise interest rates later and more slowly to avoid excessive dollar appreciation.

The cause of the latest currency turmoil is clear: In an environment of private and public deleveraging from high debts, monetary policy has become the only available tool to boost demand and growth. Fiscal austerity has exacerbated the impact of deleveraging by exerting a direct and indirect drag on growth. Lower public spending reduces aggregate demand, while declining transfers and higher taxes reduce disposable income and thus private consumption.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/world-government-reliance-monetary-policy-by-nouriel-roubini-2014-12#bSZjhMEWZhfSSVZU.99






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

9 Ways the Eurozone is More Fragile than the US

By Nouriel Roubini

I may be best known for predicting the global financial crisis and the housing bust of 2008 — but I made another key economic prediction when I warned of major structural risks threatening the Eurozone in 2006.

My remarks proved as prophetic as I'd feared. The crisis I predicted then is still casting shockwaves through the world economy, and may do so for generations to come.
At the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland that year, I said that imbalances in the Eurozone would come to a climax — which might lead to a disaster in Europe within 5 years.
http://www.roubinisedge.com/nouriel-unplugged/9-ways-the-eurozone-is-more-fragile-than-the-us





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Cheap Oil won't last

 January 13, 2015, 6:32 PM EST E-mail Tweet Facebook Google Plus Linkedin Share icons The falling price of oil continues to be the most important macroeconomic event of the day, with the price of WTI crude declining again to under $45 per barrel Tuesday, the lowest since April 2009. So far, OPEC has declined to cut its production to support prices, and many oil exporting countries … (continue reading)





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Risks for `Significant' Credit Bubble

 Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, talks about Federal Reserve policy, the global economy and markets. Roubini speaks with Betty Liu and Josh Wright on Bloomberg Television's "In the Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Foxconn Plans to Replace Workers With Machines: Roubini

 Roubini Global Economics’ Nouriel Roubini discusses the future of robotics in the work place.





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

U.S. and U.K. to Grow 3% in 2015

 Dec. 22 -- Roubini Global Economics’ Nouriel Roubini discusses his economic outlook for 2015.







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Will labor demand keep pace with technological innovation?

NEW YORK – Technology innovators and CEOs seem positively giddy nowadays about what the future will bring. New manufacturing technologies have generated feverish excitement about what some see as a Third Industrial Revolution. In the years ahead, technological improvements in robotics and automation will boost productivity and efficiency, implying significant economic gains for companies. But, unless the proper policies to nurture job growth are put in place, it remains uncertain whether demand for labor will continue to grow as technology marches forward.

Recent technological advances have three biases: They tend to be capital-intensive (thus favoring those who already have financial resources); skill-intensive (thus favoring those who already have a high level of technical proficiency); and labor-saving (thus reducing the total number of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in the economy). The risk is that robotics and automation will displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs before the dust of the Third Industrial Revolution settles.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/technology-labor-automation-robotics-by-nouriel-roubini-2014-12#ZKbfb8gl7JwVBpKI.99





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Job-reducing Technological innovations will affect Education

Likewise, in the next decade, Foxconn, which produces iPhones and other consumer electronics, plans to replace much of its Chinese workforce of more than 1.2 million with robots. And soon enough voice recognition software will replace the call centers of Bangalore and Manila.
Job-reducing technological innovations will affect education, health care, government, and even transportation. For example, will we still need so many teachers in the decades to come if the cream of the profession can produce increasingly sophisticated online courses that millions of students can take? If not, how will all of those former teachers earn a living?
Governments, too, are shedding labor – particularly governments burdened by high deficits and debts. And, by transforming how services are provided to the public, the e-government trend can offset the employment losses with productivity gains.
Even transportation is being revolutionized by technology. In a matter of years, driverless cars – courtesy of Google and others – may render millions of jobs obsolete.





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Technology May Render Millions of Jobs Obsolete

Job-reducing technological innovations will affect education, health care, government, and even transportation. For example, will we still need so many teachers in the decades to come if the cream of the profession can produce increasingly sophisticated online courses that millions of students can take? If not, how will all of those former teachers earn a living? Governments, too, are shedding labour—particularly governments burdened by high deficits and debts. And, by transforming how services are provided to the public, the e-government trend can offset the employment losses with productivity gains. Even transportation is being revolutionized by technology. In a matter of years, driverless cars—courtesy of Google and others—may render millions of jobs obsolete.

And, of course technological innovation that is capital-intensive and labour-saving is one of the factors—together with the related winner-take-all effects—driving the rise in income and wealth inequality. Rising inequality then becomes a drag on demand and growth (as well as a source of social and political instability), because it distributes income from those who spend more (lower- and middle-income households) to those who save more (high-net-worth individuals and corporate firms).



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Where Will All the Workers Go? by Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – Technology innovators and CEOs seem positively giddy nowadays about what the future will bring. New manufacturing technologies have generated feverish excitement about what some see as a Third Industrial Revolution. In the years ahead, technological improvements in robotics and automation will boost productivity and efficiency, implying significant economic gains for companies. But, unless the proper policies to nurture job growth are put in place, it remains uncertain whether demand for labor will continue to grow as technology marches forward.

Recent technological advances have three biases: They tend to be capital-intensive (thus favoring those who already have financial resources); skill-intensive (thus favoring those who already have a high level of technical proficiency); and labor-saving (thus reducing the total number of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in the economy). The risk is that robotics and automation will displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs before the dust of the Third Industrial Revolution settles.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/technology-labor-automation-robotics-by-nouriel-roubini-2014-12#vwyI4Yal2lSkdcRt.99






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

What happens when automation leads to job losses? By Nouriel Roubini

Technology innovators and CEOs seem positively giddy nowadays about what the future will bring. New manufacturing technologies have generated feverish excitement about what some see as a Third Industrial Revolution. In the years ahead, technological improvements in robotics and automation will boost productivity and efficiency, implying significant economic gains for companies. But, unless the proper policies to nurture job growth are put in place, it remains uncertain whether demand for labor will continue to grow as technology marches forward.

Recent technological advances have three biases: They tend to be capital-intensive (thus favoring those who already have financial resources); skill-intensive (thus favoring those who already have a high level of technical proficiency); and labor-saving (thus reducing the total number of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in the economy). The risk is that robotics and automation will displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs before the dust of the Third Industrial Revolution settles.

https://agenda.weforum.org/2015/01/what-happens-when-automation-leads-to-job-losses/?utm_content=buffere06a7&utm_medium=social&utm_source=twitter.com&utm_campaign=buffer



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Robots to threaten Blue Collar Workers

in a recent article for Project Syndicate Roubini writes :

"New manufacturing technologies have generated feverish excitement about what some see as a third industrial revolution,"

"In the years ahead, technological improvements in robotics and automation will boost productivity and efficiency, implying significant economic gains for companies.""Unless the proper policies to nurture job growth are put in place, it remains uncertain whether demand for labor will continue to grow as technology marches forward," Roubini says."capital-intensive, thus favoring those who already have financial resources; skill-intensive, thus favoring those who already have a high level of technical proficiency; and labor-saving, thus reducing the total number of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in the economy.""the risk is that robotics and automation will displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs before the dust of the third industrial revolution settles," Roubini writes.

"The gains from technology must be channeled to a broader base of the population than has benefited so far. That requires a major educational component. In order to create broad-based prosperity, workers need the skills to participate in the brave new world implied by a digital economy."






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: U.S. and U.K. Set to Grow 3% in 2015

 Dec. 22 -- Roubini Global Economics’ Nouriel Roubini discusses his economic outlook for 2015.








Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Where Will All the Workers Go?

NEW YORK – Technology innovators and CEOs seem positively giddy nowadays about what the future will bring. New manufacturing technologies have generated feverish excitement about what some see as a Third Industrial Revolution. In the years ahead, technological improvements in robotics and automation will boost productivity and efficiency, implying significant economic gains for companies. But, unless the proper policies to nurture job growth are put in place, it remains uncertain whether demand for labor will continue to grow as technology marches forward.

Recent technological advances have three biases: They tend to be capital-intensive (thus favoring those who already have financial resources); skill-intensive (thus favoring those who already have a high level of technical proficiency); and labor-saving (thus reducing the total number of unskilled and semi-skilled jobs in the economy). The risk is that robotics and automation will displace workers in blue-collar manufacturing jobs before the dust of the Third Industrial Revolution settles.

The rapid development of smart software over the last few decades has been perhaps the most important force shaping the coming manufacturing revolution. Software innovation, together with 3D printing technologies, will open the door to those workers who are educated enough to participate; for everyone else, however, it may feel as though the revolution is happening elsewhere. Indeed, the factory of the future may be 1,000 robots and one worker manning them. Even the shop floor can be swept better and cheaper by a Roomba robot than by any worker.

For the developed countries, this may seem like old news. After all, for the last 30 years, the manufacturing base in Asia’s emerging economies has been displacing that of the old industrial powers of Western Europe and North America. But there is no guarantee that gains in service-sector employment will continue to offset the resulting job losses in industry.

For starters, technology is making even many service jobs tradable, enabling them to be offshored to Asia and other emerging markets. And, eventually, technology will replace manufacturing and service jobs in emerging markets as well.

Today, for example, a patient in New York may have his MRI sent digitally to, say, Bangalore, where a highly skilled radiologist reads it for one-quarter of what a New York-based radiologist would cost. But how long will it be before a computer software can read those images faster, better, and cheaper than the radiologist in Bangalore can?

Likewise, in the next decade, Foxconn, which produces iPhones and other consumer electronics, plans to replace much of its Chinese workforce of more than 1.2 million with robots. And soon enough voice recognition software will replace the call centers of Bangalore and Manila.

Job-reducing technological innovations will affect education, health care, government, and even transportation. For example, will we still need so many teachers in the decades to come if the cream of the profession can produce increasingly sophisticated online courses that millions of students can take? If not, how will all of those former teachers earn a living?

Governments, too, are shedding labor – particularly governments burdened by high deficits and debts. And, by transforming how services are provided to the public, the e-government trend can offset the employment losses with productivity gains.

Even transportation is being revolutionized by technology. In a matter of years, driverless cars – courtesy of Google and others – may render millions of jobs obsolete.

And, of course technological innovation that is capital-intensive and labor-saving is one of the factors – together with the related winner-take-all effects – driving the rise in income and wealth inequality. Rising inequality then becomes a drag on demand and growth (as well as a source of social and political instability), because it distributes income from those who spend more (lower- and middle-income households) to those who save more (high-net-worth individuals and corporate firms).

Obviously, this is not the first time the world has faced such problems, and the past can help to serve as a model for resolving them. Late nineteenth- and early twentieth-century leaders sought to minimize the worst features of industrialization. Child labor was abolished throughout the developed world, working hours and conditions became more humane, and a social safety net was put in place to protect vulnerable workers and stabilize the (often fragile) macroeconomy.

As we begin to seek enlightened solutions to the challenges that the Third Industrial Revolution presents, one overall theme looms large: The gains from technology must be channeled to a broader base of the population than has benefited so far. That requires a major educational component. In order to create broad-based prosperity, workers need the skills to participate in the brave new world implied by a digital economy.

Even that may not be sufficient, in which case it will become necessary to provide permanent income support to those whose jobs are displaced by software and machines. Here, too, we should attend carefully to the lessons of the past.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/technology-labor-automation-robotics-by-nouriel-roubini-2014-12#yjFGMjAmJxudSxF6.99










Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Gold is not a means of payment

A currency serves three functions, providing a means of payment, a unit of account, and a store of value. Gold may be a store of value for wealth, but it is not a means of payment; you cannot pay for your groceries with it. Nor is it a unit of account; prices of goods and services, and of financial assets, are not denominated in gold terms.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini -- End of The Commodity Super-Cycle

Noted economics commentator and professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, Nouriel Roubini, speaking to regional journalists at the International Monetary Fund forum at Montego Bay in Jamaica on October 24 Roubini said: “Some people debate whether we are truly at the end of the commodity super cycle or whether it is the end for the super cycle in industrial metals as opposed to energy or other types of soft commodities.

“But certainly commodity prices are going down and not just because China is slowing down, but also because there has been significant new capacity investment by many countries after many years of high prices. This is leading to a glut of new supply and new capacity.

Roubini said an initial analysis of the decline in commodity prices may lead to thinking that this would be good for commodity importers and bad for exporters “That first approximation might be correct, but I think there are a number of caveats worth keeping in mind.
• The first one is that some commodity importers also export commodities. A country like Jamaica produces and exports alumina, as well as coffee, rum and sugar. The softness in commodity prices could impact countries that are net importers of oil;
• Secondly, while the fall in the price of oil is positive for the oil and energy importers, it puts a huge strain on a country like Venezuela that is economically and financially fragile. The PetroCaribe scheme effectively subsidizes the price of oil in the Caribbean and this could be threatened or Venezuela could reduce its oil subsidies to the region. If that were to occur, the falling oil prices would be less of a benefit to the region, because the explicit or implicit subsidy from Venezuela is going to be reduced.”




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini's 2015 Outlook [VIDEO]

Nouriel Roubini on his predictions for 2015, Fed, Possibility of Rate Hike in June 2015, Monetary Easing and politics in Europe, Greece, France.
-- Roubini Global Economics’ Nouriel Roubini discusses his economic outlook for 2015.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Huge Gap Between Sentiment On Wall Street And The Main Street

"There is a huge gap between sentiment on Wall Street and the main street."

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Fed's Liquidity Injections Are Not Creating Credit For The Real Economy

The problem is that the Fed's liquidity injections are not creating credit for the real economy, but rather boosting leverage and risk-taking in financial markets. The issuance of risky junk bonds under loose covenants and with excessively low interest rates is increasing; the stock market is reaching new highs, despite the growth slowdown; and money is flowing to high-yielding emerging markets.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Stock Market Rally, Asset Bubbles & Crash

“For the next year or so, as long as the economy grows 1.5-2 percent, and you have easy money, this market can go higher. Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct, somehow, over time. This might lead to a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble in the next year or two, followed by a crash.”

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini worried about high pollution levels in Chinese cities

When you drive around the city of Beijing, you can see people on the street wearing surgical masks, or with scarves covering their nose and mouth to try to reduce the pollution they are forced to inhale.

The situation is so severe that the Chinese government continually monitors the count of particles in the air. On some days, when the particle count is particularly high, cars are banned from the city.

When the number rises above 100, it’s considered dangerous. When I was in Beijing, the readings were at 300.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Two years down the line, we could have this shakeout … 2016 I would say

“I think that this frothiness that we have seen in financial markets is likely to continue, from equities to credit to housing, and in a couple of years, most likely, this asset inflation is going to become asset frothiness and eventually an asset and a credit bubble and eventually any bubble ends up in a bust and a crash. I would say that valuations in many markets, whether it’s government bonds or credit, or real estate, or some equity markets, are already stretched. And they’re going to become more stretched as the real economy justifies the slow exit, and all this liquidity is going to go into more asset inflation.
So two years down the line, we could have this shakeout … 2016 I would say.”

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Foxconn Plans to Replace Workers With Machines: Roubini

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Roubini Global Economics’ Nouriel Roubini discusses the future of robotics in the work place. He speaks on “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini discussing the art market with Hoffman on BloombergTV

Dec. 22 (Bloomberg) -- The Fine Art Fund Group Founder and CEO Philip Hoffman discusses investing in art. Roubini Global Economics’ Nouriel Roubini also speaks on “Market Makers.” (Source: Bloomberg)





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: U.S. and U.K. Set to Grow 3% in 2015

Dec. 22 -- Roubini Global Economics’ Nouriel Roubini discusses his economic outlook for 2015.





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics