NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, May 1, 2015
Roubini: Baltimore Riots are a symptom of income inequality
The riots in Baltimore this week may have been triggered by the death of Freddie Gray, but their roots are found in the widening gap between America's rich and poor.
That's the message from Nouriel Roubini, the economist who in 2005 correctly predicted the housing crisis and ensuing financial crash in 2008.
"We've seen race riots in parts of the United States because lots of people are poor and angry and resentful," Roubini told CNNMoney's Cristina Alesci at the Milken Global Conference in Los Angeles
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, April 30, 2015
Roubini on recent Rioting in America
What do the Baltimore riots have to do with income inequality in America? Economist Nouriel Roubini breaks it down. ?
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, April 29, 2015
Roubini: Why Greece Will Become More Compromising
Roubini Global Economics co-founder Nouriel Roubini comments on the Greek debt crisis during an interview with Bloomberg's Stephanie Ruhle and Erik Schatzker at the Milken Global Conference in Beverly Hills, CA. (Source: Bloomberg)
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, April 28, 2015
We live in a world of too much Supply and little Demand
Central banks have had no choice but to approve -and should maintain - heterodox policies given the weakness of the recovery.
Who could think that six years after the global financial crisis, most advanced economies continue floating in a soup of letters (ZIRP, QE, CE, FG, NDR and U-FX Int) of unorthodox monetary policies?
read more (in Spanish) at : http://gestion.pe/economia/roubini-vivimos-mundo-demasiada-oferta-y-poca-demanda-2130059
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Roubini wants to go back to Glass-Steagall
Roubini: The Volcker Rule goes in the right direction, but in my view, the model of the financial supermarket where within one institution you have commercial banking, investment banking, underwriting of securities, market-making and dealing, proprietary trading, hedge fund activity, private equity activity, asset management, insurance—this model has been a disaster. The institution becomes too big to fail and too big to manage.
It also creates massive conflicts of interest. If you look at the cases against Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, leaving aside whether there was any fraud or illegal activity—that's for a court to decide—there is still a fundamental conflict of interest. These institutions are always on every side of every deal. That's an inherent conflict of interest that cannot be addressed with Chinese walls [internal company barriers between different aspects of its business].
There are no benefits from these economies of scale and scope, as we've seen from the disasters at Citigroup, AIG and others. And there are massive conflicts of interest. So I would separate all of these financial businesses under separate institutions, and I would go back to the kind of restrictions that we had under Glass-Steagall.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Monday, April 27, 2015
The too Big to Fail are also too Big to be Saved
Nouriel Roubini: In my view, the financial reform bill goes in the right direction in terms of what needs to be done, but it doesn't go far enough in a number of dimensions. My view is that if banks are too big to fail, using higher capital charges and an insolvency regime is not going to work. If they're too big to fail, they're just too big, and they should be broken up.
If they're too big to fail, they're also becoming too big to be saved, too big to be bailed out, and too big to be managed. No CEO can monitor the activities of thousands of separate profit and loss statements, and the activities of thousands of different bankers and traders. So that's one dimension. We must be capable of going beyond the Volcker Rule, which is essentially Glass-Steagall-Lite. We need to go all the way and implement the kind of restrictions between commercial banking and investment banking that existed under Glass-Steagall
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Roubini on China's Slowdown
But a hard landing becomes more likely as the stimulus fades, nonperforming loans rise, the investment bust accelerates, and the problem of rolling over the debts of provincial governments and their special investment vehicles can no longer be papered over. - in Irish Times
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, April 24, 2015
Software Innovation & 3D Printing Technologies
Software innovation, together with 3D printing technologies, will open the door to those workers who are educated enough to participate; for everyone else, however, it may feel as though the revolution is happening elsewhere. Indeed, the factory of the future may be 1,000 robots and one worker manning them. Even the shop floor can be swept better and cheaper by a Roomba robot than by any worker. - in project syndicate
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, April 23, 2015
Roubini on Pseudo-Economists & Market Hacks
Writing in Project Syndicate, NYU professor Nouriel Roubini says that the doomsayers and worry warts of these policies are merely "pseudo economists and market hacks" that have "barely any knowledge of basic economics."
"This assortment of 'Austrian' economists, radical monetarists, gold bugs, and Bitcoin fanatics has repeatedly warned that such a massive increase in global liquidity would lead to hyperinflation, the US dollar’s collapse, sky-high gold prices, and the eventual demise of fiat currencies at the hands of digital krypto-currency counterparts," Roubini writes.
Yet these views have still shaped public debate on the matter, and so Roubini feels compelled to explain just what these folks got wrong.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, April 22, 2015
Grexit Very Unlikely says Roubini
Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, talks about Greece's debt crisis, the global economy and financial markets. Roubini spoke Thursday with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene. (Source: Bloomberg)
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Labels:
Grexit
Tuesday, April 21, 2015
Roubini : Probability of Greece Euro Exit Very Limited
Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a
professor at New York University's Stern School of Business, talks about
Greece's debt crisis, the global economy and financial markets. Roubini
spoke Thursday with Bloomberg Television's Tom Keene. (Source:
Bloomberg)
Watch the interview >>>>>>>>
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, April 18, 2015
What Japan Abe needs to do
In Japan, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe's government has made significant headway in overcoming almost two decades of deflation, thanks to monetary easing and fiscal expansion.
The main uncertainties stem from the coming increase in the consumption tax and slow implementation of the third "arrow" of "Abenomics," namely structural reforms and trade liberalization.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, April 17, 2015
European Economy on The Rebound?
Roubini Global Economics Founder Nouriel Roubini argues Europe is beginning to see a cyclical recovery and explains why Japanese equities will outperform the U.S. Watch Maria Bartiromo talk about World Markets on Opening Bell.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, April 16, 2015
Roubini - Why The Philippines deserves an Investment Grade
Nouriel Roubini details 'shopping list' for Philippines , Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini offers an 8-point 'shopping list' for the Philippines in its pursuit of high, sustainable economic growth THE LIST. Nouriel Roubini tells audience at the Philippine Investment Summit 2013 in Manila why the Philippines deserves investment grade.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Labels:
The Philippines
Tuesday, April 14, 2015
Gold does not provide any Income
"Unlike other assets, gold does not provide any income. Whereas equities have dividends, bonds have coupons, and homes provide rents, gold is solely a play on capital appreciation. Now that the global economy is recovering, other assets – equities or even revived real estate – thus provide higher returns." - in A World Of Ideas
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Monday, April 13, 2015
Roubini : QE not Enough for Eurozone
Europe is finally going to get its own massive monetary stimulus. But that doesn't mean it can save the region's economy. A flurry of media reports suggested Mario Draghi, president of the European Central Bank, will unveil a program Thursday to buy bonds worth 50 billion euros a month, starting in March. That could inject more than one trillion euros ($1.2 trillion) into the eurozone economy by the end of 2016.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, April 12, 2015
Housing Bubbles -- Signs of Frothiness
Now, five years later, signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles, are reappearing in housing markets in Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand, and, back for an encore, the UK (well, London). In emerging markets, bubbles are appearing in Hong Kong, Singapore, China, and Israel, and in major urban centers in Turkey, India, Indonesia, and Brazil.
Signs that home prices are entering bubble territory in these economies include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios, and high levels of mortgage debt as a share of household debt. In most advanced economies, bubbles are being inflated by very low short- and long-term interest rates. Given anemic GDP growth, high unemployment, and low inflation, the wall of liquidity generated by conventional and unconventional monetary easing is driving up asset prices, starting with home prices.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, April 11, 2015
Roubini: When to Expect the Next Big Market Crash
April 22 (Bloomberg) -- New York University economics professor Nouriel
Roubini talks about the outlook for the global economy and the impact of
central bank policy and austerity programs on growth. Roubini spoke
with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen April 19 on the sidelines of the IMF and
World Bank meetings in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, April 10, 2015
Roubini with Maria Bartiromo talk about World Markets
Roubini : European Economy on the rebound? Roubini Global Economics Founder Nouriel Roubini argues Europe is
beginning to see a cyclical recovery and explains why Japanese equities
will outperform the U.S.
Watch Maria Bartiromo talk about World Markets on Opening Bel
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Watch Maria Bartiromo talk about World Markets on Opening Bel
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, April 9, 2015
Asset Reflation could become Asset Inflation
Asset reflation could become asset inflation with another credit bubble leading to a bond crash, Nouriel warned.
However, while that was a risk, Roubini described how a ‘new mediocre’ era of sub-par economic growth in the world was broadly positive for bonds as interest rates and inflation were likely to stay lower for longer.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, April 8, 2015
Germany cannot stand idly by in the spending splurge
by Nouriel Roubini for Gulf News :
The latest economic data from the Eurozone suggests that recovery may be at hand. What is driving the upturn? What obstacles does it face? And what can be done to sustain it?
The immediate causes of recovery are not difficult to discern. Last year, the Eurozone was on the verge of a double-dip recession. When it recently fell into technical deflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) finally pulled the trigger on aggressive easing and launched a combination of quantitative easing (including sovereign-bond purchases) and negative policy rates.
The financial impact was immediate: in anticipation of monetary easing, and after it began, the euro fell sharply, bond yields in the Eurozone’s core and periphery fell to very low levels, and stock markets started to rally robustly.
This, together with the sharp fall in oil prices, boosted economic growth.
read more @ http://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/germany-cannot-stand-idly-by-in-the-spending-splurge-1.1487538
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
The latest economic data from the Eurozone suggests that recovery may be at hand. What is driving the upturn? What obstacles does it face? And what can be done to sustain it?
The immediate causes of recovery are not difficult to discern. Last year, the Eurozone was on the verge of a double-dip recession. When it recently fell into technical deflation, the European Central Bank (ECB) finally pulled the trigger on aggressive easing and launched a combination of quantitative easing (including sovereign-bond purchases) and negative policy rates.
The financial impact was immediate: in anticipation of monetary easing, and after it began, the euro fell sharply, bond yields in the Eurozone’s core and periphery fell to very low levels, and stock markets started to rally robustly.
This, together with the sharp fall in oil prices, boosted economic growth.
read more @ http://gulfnews.com/business/analysis/germany-cannot-stand-idly-by-in-the-spending-splurge-1.1487538
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, April 7, 2015
Roubini on China's Economic hard Landing
Dr. Roubini (two): China's economic hard landing ?
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Monday, April 6, 2015
Eurozone Recovery ? - no one should bet the farm
If the eurozone unemployment rate is still too high by the end of 2016, annual inflation remains well below the ECB’s 2% target, and fiscal policies and structural reforms exert a short-term drag on economic growth, the only game in town may be continued quantitative easing. But the ongoing weakness of the euro – fed by such policies – is fueling growth in the eurozone’s current-account surplus.
Indeed, as the euro weakens, the periphery countries’ external accounts have swung from deficit to balance and, increasingly, to surplus. Germany and the eurozone core were already running large surpluses; in the absence of policies to boost domestic demand, those surpluses have simply risen further. Thus, the ECB’s monetary policy will take on an increasingly beggar-thy-neighbor cast, leading to trade and currency tensions with the United States and other trade partners.
To avoid this outcome, Germany needs to adopt policies – fiscal stimulus, higher spending on infrastructure and public investment, and more rapid wage growth – that would boost domestic spending and reduce the country’s external surplus. Unless, and until, Germany moves in this direction, no one should bet the farm on a more robust and sustained eurozone recovery.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-fragile-recovery-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-03#O7MCBJ4WaBTG24kh.99
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, April 5, 2015
Eurozone Growth has Resumed,but a more sustained recovery still faces many challenges
As a result of these factors, eurozone growth has resumed, and eurozone equities have recently outperformed US equities. The weakening of the euro and the ECB’s aggressive measures may even stop the deflationary pressure later this year.
But a more robust and sustained recovery still faces many challenges. For starters, political risks could derail progress. Greece, one hopes, will remain in the eurozone. But the difficult negotiations between the Syriza-led government and the “troika” (the ECB, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund) could cause an unintended accident – call it a “Grexident” – if an agreement on funding the country is not reached in the next few weeks
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-fragile-recovery-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-03#JYYxM8kBBSKeE3Pm.99
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
But a more robust and sustained recovery still faces many challenges. For starters, political risks could derail progress. Greece, one hopes, will remain in the eurozone. But the difficult negotiations between the Syriza-led government and the “troika” (the ECB, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund) could cause an unintended accident – call it a “Grexident” – if an agreement on funding the country is not reached in the next few weeks
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-fragile-recovery-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-03#JYYxM8kBBSKeE3Pm.99
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, April 4, 2015
EU Snail Pace Structural Reforms holding back Potential Growth
“Germany needs to adopt policies – fiscal stimulus, higher spending on infrastructure and public investment, and more rapid wage growth – that would boost domestic spending and reduce the country’s external surplus,” he said.
“Unless, and until, Germany moves in this direction, no one should bet the farm on a more robust and sustained eurozone recovery.”
To go to the original article, click here.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, April 3, 2015
The ECB's Easing of Credit is effectively Subsidizing Bank Lending
Other factors are helping, too. The ECB’s easing of credit is effectively subsidizing bank lending. The fiscal drag from austerity will be smaller this year, as the European Commission becomes more lenient. And the start of a banking union also helps; following the latest stress tests and asset quality review, banks have greater liquidity and more capital to lend to the private sector.
As a result of these factors, eurozone growth has resumed, and eurozone equities have recently outperformed US equities. The weakening of the euro and the ECB’s aggressive measures may even stop the deflationary pressure later this year.
But a more robust and sustained recovery still faces many challenges. For starters, political risks could derail progress. Greece, one hopes, will remain in the eurozone. But the difficult negotiations between the Syriza-led government and the “troika” (the ECB, the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund) could cause an unintended accident – call it a “Grexident” – if an agreement on funding the country is not reached in the next few weeks.
Moreover, Podemos, a leftist party in the Syriza mold, could come to power in Spain. Populist anti-euro parties of the right and the left are challenging Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. And Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front is polling well ahead of the 2017 French presidential election.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-fragile-recovery-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-03#4dUlA6XRwFzvzzCM.99
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, April 2, 2015
Signs of life in The Eurozone
By Nouriel Roubini
The latest economic data from the eurozone suggest that recovery may be at hand. What is driving the upturn? What obstacles does it face? And what can be done to sustain it?
The immediate causes of recovery are not difficult to discern. Last year, the eurozone was on the verge of a double-dip recession. When it recently fell into technical deflation, the European Central Bank finally pulled the trigger on aggressive easing and launched a combination of quantitative easing (including sovereign-bond purchases) and negative policy rates.
The financial impact was immediate: in anticipation of monetary easing, and after it began, the euro fell sharply, bond yields in the eurozone’s core and periphery fell to very low levels, and stock markets started to rally robustly. This, together with the sharp fall in oil prices, boosted economic growth.
Other factors are helping, too. The ECB’s easing of credit is effectively subsidizing bank lending. The fiscal drag from austerity will be smaller this year, as the European Commission becomes more lenient. And the start of a banking union also helps; following the latest stress tests and asset quality review, banks have greater liquidity and more capital to lend to the private sector.
As a result of these factors, eurozone growth has resumed, and eurozone equities have recently outperformed US equities. The weakening of the euro and the ECB’s aggressive measures may even stop the deflationary pressure later this year.
But a more robust and sustained recovery still faces many challenges. For starters, political risks could derail progress. Greece, one hopes, will remain in the eurozone. But the difficult negotiations between the Syriza-led government and the “troika” (the ECB the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund) could cause an unintended accident – call it a “Grexident” – if an agreement on funding the country is not reached in the next few weeks.
Moreover, Podemos, a leftist party in the Syriza mold, could come to power in Spain. Populist anti-euro parties of the right and the left are challenging Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. And Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front is polling well ahead of the 2017 French presidential election.
Slow job creation and income growth may continue to fuel the populist backlash against austerity and reform. Even the ECB estimates that the eurozone unemployment rate will still be 9.9% in 2017 – well above the 7.2% average prior to the global financial crisis seven years ago. And austerity and reform fatigue in the eurozone periphery has been matched by bailout fatigue in the core, boosting support for a range of anti-euro parties in Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.
A second obstacle to sustained recovery is the eurozone’s bad neighborhood. Russia is becoming more assertive and aggressive in Ukraine, the Baltics, and even the Balkans (while sanctions against Russia have hurt many European economies). And the Middle East is burning just next door: the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Copenhagen, and against foreign tourists in Tunisia, remind Europe that hundreds of homegrown jihadists could return from fighting in Syria, Iraq, or elsewhere and launch further attacks.
Third, while ECB policies keep borrowing costs lower, private and public debt in the periphery countries, as a share of GDP, is high and still rising, because the denominator of the debt ratio – nominal GDP – is barely increasing. Thus, debt sustainability will remain an issue for these economies over the medium term.
Fourth, fiscal policy remains contractionary, because Germany continues to reject a growing chorus of advice that it should undertake a short-term stimulus. Thus, higher German spending will not offset the impact of additional austerity in the periphery or the significant shortfall expected for the three-year, €300 billion ($325 billion) investment plan unveiled by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
Fifth, structural reforms are still occurring at a snail’s pace, holding back potential growth. And, while structural reforms are necessary, some measures – for example, labor-market liberalization and pension overhauls – may boost the eurozone’s savings rate and thus weaken aggregate demand further (as occurred in Germany following its structural reforms a decade ago).
Finally, Europe’s monetary union remains incomplete. Its long-term viability requires the development over time of a full banking union, fiscal union, economic union, and eventually political union. But the process of further European integration has stalled.
If the eurozone unemployment rate is still too high by the end of 2016, annual inflation remains well below the ECB’s 2% target, and fiscal policies and structural reforms exert a short-term drag on economic growth, the only game in town may be continued quantitative easing. But the ongoing weakness of the euro – fed by such policies – is fueling growth in the eurozone’s current-account surplus.
Indeed, as the euro weakens, the periphery countries’ external accounts have swung from deficit to balance and, increasingly, to surplus. Germany and the eurozone core were already running large surpluses; in the absence of policies to boost domestic demand, those surpluses have simply risen further. Thus, the ECB’s monetary policy will take on an increasingly beggar-thy-neighbor cast, leading to trade and currency tensions with the United States and other trade partners.
To avoid this outcome, Germany needs to adopt policies – fiscal stimulus, higher spending on infrastructure and public investment, and more rapid wage growth – that would boost domestic spending and reduce the country’s external surplus. Unless, and until, Germany moves in this direction, no one should bet the farm on a more robust and sustained eurozone recovery.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
The latest economic data from the eurozone suggest that recovery may be at hand. What is driving the upturn? What obstacles does it face? And what can be done to sustain it?
The immediate causes of recovery are not difficult to discern. Last year, the eurozone was on the verge of a double-dip recession. When it recently fell into technical deflation, the European Central Bank finally pulled the trigger on aggressive easing and launched a combination of quantitative easing (including sovereign-bond purchases) and negative policy rates.
The financial impact was immediate: in anticipation of monetary easing, and after it began, the euro fell sharply, bond yields in the eurozone’s core and periphery fell to very low levels, and stock markets started to rally robustly. This, together with the sharp fall in oil prices, boosted economic growth.
Other factors are helping, too. The ECB’s easing of credit is effectively subsidizing bank lending. The fiscal drag from austerity will be smaller this year, as the European Commission becomes more lenient. And the start of a banking union also helps; following the latest stress tests and asset quality review, banks have greater liquidity and more capital to lend to the private sector.
As a result of these factors, eurozone growth has resumed, and eurozone equities have recently outperformed US equities. The weakening of the euro and the ECB’s aggressive measures may even stop the deflationary pressure later this year.
But a more robust and sustained recovery still faces many challenges. For starters, political risks could derail progress. Greece, one hopes, will remain in the eurozone. But the difficult negotiations between the Syriza-led government and the “troika” (the ECB the European Commission, and the International Monetary Fund) could cause an unintended accident – call it a “Grexident” – if an agreement on funding the country is not reached in the next few weeks.
Moreover, Podemos, a leftist party in the Syriza mold, could come to power in Spain. Populist anti-euro parties of the right and the left are challenging Italian Prime Minister Matteo Renzi. And Marine Le Pen of the far-right National Front is polling well ahead of the 2017 French presidential election.
Slow job creation and income growth may continue to fuel the populist backlash against austerity and reform. Even the ECB estimates that the eurozone unemployment rate will still be 9.9% in 2017 – well above the 7.2% average prior to the global financial crisis seven years ago. And austerity and reform fatigue in the eurozone periphery has been matched by bailout fatigue in the core, boosting support for a range of anti-euro parties in Germany, the Netherlands and Finland.
A second obstacle to sustained recovery is the eurozone’s bad neighborhood. Russia is becoming more assertive and aggressive in Ukraine, the Baltics, and even the Balkans (while sanctions against Russia have hurt many European economies). And the Middle East is burning just next door: the recent terrorist attacks in Paris and Copenhagen, and against foreign tourists in Tunisia, remind Europe that hundreds of homegrown jihadists could return from fighting in Syria, Iraq, or elsewhere and launch further attacks.
Third, while ECB policies keep borrowing costs lower, private and public debt in the periphery countries, as a share of GDP, is high and still rising, because the denominator of the debt ratio – nominal GDP – is barely increasing. Thus, debt sustainability will remain an issue for these economies over the medium term.
Fourth, fiscal policy remains contractionary, because Germany continues to reject a growing chorus of advice that it should undertake a short-term stimulus. Thus, higher German spending will not offset the impact of additional austerity in the periphery or the significant shortfall expected for the three-year, €300 billion ($325 billion) investment plan unveiled by European Commission President Jean-Claude Juncker.
Fifth, structural reforms are still occurring at a snail’s pace, holding back potential growth. And, while structural reforms are necessary, some measures – for example, labor-market liberalization and pension overhauls – may boost the eurozone’s savings rate and thus weaken aggregate demand further (as occurred in Germany following its structural reforms a decade ago).
Finally, Europe’s monetary union remains incomplete. Its long-term viability requires the development over time of a full banking union, fiscal union, economic union, and eventually political union. But the process of further European integration has stalled.
If the eurozone unemployment rate is still too high by the end of 2016, annual inflation remains well below the ECB’s 2% target, and fiscal policies and structural reforms exert a short-term drag on economic growth, the only game in town may be continued quantitative easing. But the ongoing weakness of the euro – fed by such policies – is fueling growth in the eurozone’s current-account surplus.
Indeed, as the euro weakens, the periphery countries’ external accounts have swung from deficit to balance and, increasingly, to surplus. Germany and the eurozone core were already running large surpluses; in the absence of policies to boost domestic demand, those surpluses have simply risen further. Thus, the ECB’s monetary policy will take on an increasingly beggar-thy-neighbor cast, leading to trade and currency tensions with the United States and other trade partners.
To avoid this outcome, Germany needs to adopt policies – fiscal stimulus, higher spending on infrastructure and public investment, and more rapid wage growth – that would boost domestic spending and reduce the country’s external surplus. Unless, and until, Germany moves in this direction, no one should bet the farm on a more robust and sustained eurozone recovery.
Copyright: Project Syndicate
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, April 1, 2015
Roubini : Signs of Life in the Eurozone
NEW YORK – The latest economic data from the eurozone suggest that recovery may be at hand. What is driving the upturn? What obstacles does it face? And what can be done to sustain it?
The immediate causes of recovery are not difficult to discern. Last year, the eurozone was on the verge of a double-dip recession. When it recently fell into technical deflation, the European Central Bank finally pulled the trigger on aggressive easing and launched a combination of quantitative easing (including sovereign-bond purchases) and negative policy rates.
The financial impact was immediate: in anticipation of monetary easing, and after it began, the euro fell sharply, bond yields in the eurozone’s core and periphery fell to very low levels, and stock markets started to rally robustly. This, together with the sharp fall in oil prices, boosted economic growth.
Other factors are helping, too. The ECB’s easing of credit is effectively subsidizing bank lending. The fiscal drag from austerity will be smaller this year, as the European Commission becomes more lenient. And the start of a banking union also helps; following the latest stress tests and asset quality review, banks have greater liquidity and more capital to lend to the private sector.
read more @ http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/eurozone-fragile-recovery-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-03
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, March 31, 2015
Roubini Global Economics -- Announcing the AON 2015 Political Risk Map
View the 2015 Political Risk Map: http://www.aon.com/2015politicalriskm...
View more information on the Aon Risk Solutions and Roubini Global Economics Partnership:
http://aon.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=...
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Roubini Warns about high pollution levels in Chinese cities
When you drive around the city of Beijing, you can see people on the street wearing surgical masks, or with scarves covering their nose and mouth to try to reduce the pollution they are forced to inhale.
The situation is so severe that the Chinese government continually monitors the count of particles in the air. On some days, when the particle count is particularly high, cars are banned from the city.
When the number rises above 100, it’s considered dangerous. When I was in Beijing, the readings were at 300.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Monday, March 30, 2015
Roubini : Global Economy is recovering but we can't generalize
26esimo Workshop Mercati Finanziari: Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economic
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Growth needs Structural Reforms
The outlook for 2015 is dampened by longer-term constraints as well. Indeed, there is a looming risk of secular stagnation in many advanced economies, owing to the adverse effect on productivity growth of years of under-investment in human and physical capital.
And the structural reforms that these economies need to boost their potential growth will be implemented too slowly.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, March 29, 2015
Roubini on Europe Meltdown Crisis Economics
In an exclusive interview, Roubini Global Economics Co-Founder Nouriel Roubini discusses what a Greek exit from the euro would look like. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro from the Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, March 28, 2015
ROUBINI: Falling Stock Prices Will End The US Growth 'Fairy Tale'
Dr Doom Roubini When To Expect The Next Big Market Crash
New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini talks about the outlook for the global economy and the impact of central bank policy and austerity programs on growth. Roubini spoke with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen April 19 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, March 27, 2015
Roubini in Vancouver to address role of women in Business
Nouriel Roubini To Deliver Keynote Address At The Next Billion: Women & the Economy of the Future Conference Renowned economist to address role of women in business VANCOUVER, British Columbia, March 26, 2015 /CNW/ -- The organizers of The Next Billion: Women & the Economy of the Future today announced that acclaimed economist Nouriel Roubini will deliver the keynote address at the May 7 conference here. Senior corporate leaders will come together to discuss concrete, practical ways in which women – as consumers, employees, entrepreneurs and executives – can contribute to the continuing success of companies in the international economy.
read more @ http://www.newswire.ca/en/story/1508221/nouriel-roubini-to-deliver-keynote-address-at-the-next-billion-women-the-economy-of-the-future-conference
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, March 26, 2015
Dysfunctional U.S. National Politics
"Investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become." - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, March 25, 2015
Roubini Warns about China Economic Hard Landing
Dr. Roubini (two): China's economic hard landing ?
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, March 24, 2015
Roubini @ The China Development Forum in Beijing
Nouriel Roubini keynote speaker in a panel on China's Economy in the "New Normal" at the 2015 China Development Forum in Beijing
Approved by the State Council and sponsored by the Development Research Center of the State Council, China Development Forum 2015 (CDF2015) was held on 21-23 March, 2015 at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse in Beijing.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Monday, March 23, 2015
7% Growth is Impossible in China for The Next Few Years
“Maintaining a growth rate of 7 percent for the next few years is not possible,” Nouriel Roubini, an economist who teaches at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said at the China Development Forum on Saturday. “The only way you could do so is by increasing further the amount of credit relative to GDP and that increase of leverage eventually is going to lead to massive losses.”
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, March 22, 2015
Roubini Data View Overview
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, March 21, 2015
Roubini: China Slowdown May Be Sharp
Roubini Global Economics Chairman Nouriel Roubini discusses the slowing Chinese economy on “In The Loop.”
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Friday, March 20, 2015
Roubini Does Not See Greece Leaving the Euro
March 13 -- In an exclusive interview, Roubini Global Economics
Co-Founder Nouriel Roubini discusses what a Greek exit from the euro
would look like. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro from the
Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, March 19, 2015
Roubini: Tax the Rich to Solve Income Inequality
Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics, talks with Betty Liu about the problem of income inequality. He speaks on “In The Loop.”
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, March 18, 2015
Massive gains in Productivity -- Rise in Inequality
"Massive gains in productivity are thru Labour-saving, skills-bias, capital-intensive methods = rise in inequality" - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, March 17, 2015
Roubini : February Retail Sales: F for Fail
Nouriel Roubini : February Retail Sales: F for Fail. Why do consumers save more as oil prices lows, jobs being created and labor incomes moderately rising? - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Monday, March 16, 2015
Roubini Greek Exit Doom Scenario
In an exclusive interview, Roubini Global Economics Co-Founder Nouriel Roubini discusses what a Greek exit from the euro would look like. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro from the Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy. (Source: Bloomberg)
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Sunday, March 15, 2015
U.S. Stock Market not in a Bubble Yet
In a Bloomberg interview, Roubini said central bank liquidity is not going to the economic recovery but into financial transactions “We are maybe not in bubble territory for the U.S. stock market, but if you look at housing around the world — Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, France, Germany, Israel, Brazil, Hong Kong, Singapore, China — we have frothiness if not outright bubbles in housing markets in many parts of the world,” he said. Also, the tech sector appears vulnerable with start-ups being overvalued based on forward revenue they haven’t even taken in yet. In addition, central bankers face a tough choice between killing off the recovery, or fueling growth at the risk of inflating the next financial crisis.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Saturday, March 14, 2015
Grexit Would Cause Massive Contagion
In an exclusive interview, Roubini Global Economics Co-Founder Nouriel Roubini discusses what a Greek exit from the euro would look like. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro from the Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy. (Source: Bloomberg)
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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Grexit
Friday, March 13, 2015
Roubini: Massive Contagion If Greece Leaves the Euro
March 13 -- In an exclusive interview, Roubini Global Economics
Co-Founder Nouriel Roubini discusses what a Greek exit from the euro
would look like. He speaks to Bloomberg's Jonathan Ferro from the
Ambrosetti Spring Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Those who feared Hyperinflation confused cause and effect
Economist Nouriel Roubini in a short, nine-minute video interview last month at the 2015 Middle East Investment Conference. argues that those who feared hyperinflation from unconventional monetary policies confused cause and effect. Policies like quantitative easing (QE) and zero-interest rates were implemented to prevent deflation and a “double-dip or triple-dip recession,” he said. The “doom-and-gloom” pessimists who anticipated the rise of gold and cryptocurrencies have been proven wrong, he noted. Gold is trading well below its highs and bitcoin was the worst performing currency in 2014, falling by nearly 60%.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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