Roubini : Growth in Emerging Markets Positive for Global Economy

Roubini Global Economics Chairman Nouriel Roubini today spoke about geopolitical risks in the global economy, providing a vision for 2020, at the Plenary Session of the 44th General Assembly of the WTCA, New York. Roubini : US economic growth is being supported by an easing in the monetary policy. The US Federal Reserve is expected to continue quantitative easing for another year and have zero policy rates for two years. Roubini also said the US has no plan for medium-term fiscal sustainability. Referring to China, he said that the country may experience a slowdown and have a “hard landing” next year since savings are high, but consumption is low. - in ET Now

Roubini : The Trapdoors at the Fed’s Exit

MUMBAI – The ongoing weakness of America’s economy – where deleveraging in the private and public sectors continues apace – has led to stubbornly high unemployment and sub-par growth. The effects of fiscal austerity – a sharp rise in taxes and a sharp fall in government spending since the beginning of the year – are undermining economic performance even more.

Indeed, recent data have effectively silenced hints by some Federal Reserve officials that the Fed should begin exiting from its current third (and indefinite) round of quantitative easing (QE3). Given slow growth, high unemployment (which has fallen only because discouraged workers are leaving the labor force), and inflation well below the Fed’s target, this is no time to start constraining liquidity.

The problem is that the Fed’s liquidity injections are not creating credit for the real economy, but rather boosting leverage and risk-taking in financial markets. The issuance of risky junk bonds under loose covenants and with excessively low interest rates is increasing; the stock market is reaching new highs, despite the growth slowdown; and money is flowing to high-yielding emerging markets.

Even the periphery of the eurozone is benefiting from the wall of liquidity unleashed by the Fed, the Bank of Japan, and other major central banks. With interest rates on government bonds in the US, Japan, the United Kingdom, Germany, and Switzerland at ridiculously low levels, investors are on a global quest for yield.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-federal-reserve-s-policy-dilemma-by-nouriel-roubini#xWckG0ZdgEjsdMeL.99

Roubini : It is hard to predict bubbles and their bursts

Nouriel Roubini : It is hard to predict bubbles and their bursts, but I would say that we are having tension in the US and the global economy. On one side, growth is weak in advanced economies and unemployment rate is high and that justifies more quantitative easing. Existing quantitative easing and zero policy rate very slowly will try and support recovery but on the other side, a lot of this liquidity is not creating credit for the real economy and is going into asset prices, greater risk taking and greater leveraging into the financial system. There is already frothiness in the asset market in the US and over time low rates are going to cause credit, asset and equity bubbles which may become dangerous. Not today, but certainly three to four years of zero policy rates will lead to that. There could be a repeat of the cycle which we had seen between 2004 and 2008 when real economy weakness justified keeping rates low for longer and exiting from those low rates slower, but that attempt to stabilize the real economy created financial instability and frothiness that led to a bubble which eventually busted. - in livemint

Nouriel Roubini sees asset bubbles bursting in a few years

Nouriel Roubini : I do not expect a recession in the US. The effect of the fiscal drag on growth is going to be significant. Between raising taxes and cutting spending through sequester, you have a fiscal drag which is probably close to 1.5% of gross domestic product (GDP) and I expect the US economy to grow this year below trend at 1.6% or 1.7%. I do not expect a double-dip recession. The situation is different in Japan. It has several quarters of negative growth, recession and ongoing deflation. What the government is doing right now is restoring ambition to do monetary and fiscal stimulus to stop deflation, jump start the economic growth, weaken yen and boost stock market.
The monetary and fiscal easing is necessary. But, on the other side, over time Japan will have to think about doing fiscal consolidation because debt is high and unsustainable. If Japan wants to grow faster, it will have to do structural reforms to liberalize the economy and trade. As long as Japan does all the steps such as monetary and fiscal easing, structural reforms and trade liberalization there is a chance that things will work out. Instead, it Japan does only monetary and fiscal easing and does not focus on structural reforms and trade liberation, the monetary easing effects will fizzle out. - in livemint

Roubini : Falling Commodity Prices bad news for everyone

Roubini : "Structural reforms and liberalisation that have occurred in India in last few years have happened at a slower than optimal and desirable pace." "That is one of the reasons why economic growth in India for last couple of years has been disappointing. The government is trying to jumpstart some reforms,"
Indian macros are increasing looking better than what they did a while back, mainly on account of cool off in global commodity prices. However, Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics says though it will benefit us in the short-term, in the long run it will be bad news for India.

Roubini Economic Outlook: Market Makers 22 April 2013

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Market Makers," Erik Schatzker and Sara Eisen use analysis, insights and A-list guests to help set up your daily market trades. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini on the European Austerity

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Global Outlook," Matt Miller reports on New York University Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini's stance on austerity on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini on The Structural Reforms and liberalisation in India

Nouriel Roubini : "Structural reforms and liberalisation that have occurred in India in last few years have happened at a slower than optimal and desirable pace." "That is one of the reasons why economic growth in India for last couple of years has been disappointing. The government is trying to jumpstart some reforms," - in Economic Times

Roubini on India vs. China

Nouriel Roubini : "India has a significant trade imbalance with China in goods especially and that demand can become a problem. India cannot afford to have an early demise of its manufacturing. The risk is that cheap and good quality Chinese goods are going to crowd out Indian manufactured sector." - in Economic Times

Roubini Concerned About Crash in Markets

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini talks about the outlook for the global economy and the impact of central bank policy and austerity programs on growth. Roubini spoke with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen April 19 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini on Central Bank Policies, Economy

April 22 (Bloomberg) -- New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini talks about the outlook for the global economy and the impact of central bank policy and austerity programs on growth. Roubini spoke with Bloomberg's Sara Eisen April 19 on the sidelines of the IMF and World Bank meetings in Washington. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini: Eurozone Austerity is making things worse

The austerity in the Eurozone, in the absence of policies to boost growth, will make the crisis worse rather than fix it, The Eurozone peripheral countries need "less front-loaded fiscal austerity" while Germany should start a fiscal stimulus programme to kick-start growth, "Today in the Eurozone there is absolutely no talk about a growth agenda" while there is plenty of discussion about banking and fiscal union, and in the absence of economic expansion, "you'll have eventually social and political backlash against austerity," " Roubini, said during an IMF conference in Washington under the title"Rethinking Macro Policy II: First Steps and Early Lessons .

Roubini ‏: Pier Luigi Bersani resignation plunges Italian politics into further chaos

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Pier Luigi Bersani resignation plunges Italian politics into further chaos http://bit.ly/17zUt49 - in twitter

Nassim Taleb ‏: I am personally boycotting Nestlé and ALL its Products

Nassim N. Taleb ‏: I am personally boycotting Nestlé and ALL its products http://bit.ly/12TwKLE . Everything they own. - in twitter

[Video] Nouriel Roubini Speech in Turkey

Roubini strarts at 03:37
Turkey's economy and the future direction of the world economy ' Nouriel Roubini / Economist / New York University, Uludag Economic Summit 2013

Nouriel Roubini: What we can expect from the Eurozone in 2013

Nouriel Roubini discusses what we can expect from the Eurozone in 2013.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Nouriel Roubini: Which Emerging Markets to invest in

Nouriel Roubini discusses the outlook for other emerging markets.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Nouriel Roubini: MENA region outlook for 2013

Nouriel Roubini: MENA region outlook for 2013


Nouriel Roubini discusses the outlook for the MENA region for 2013 and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event. 

Nouriel Roubini: How sequestration will impact US Growth

Nouriel Roubini discusses how the latest round of sequestration will impact US growth over the next year and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Nouriel Roubini: Outlook for China in 2013

Nouriel Roubini discusses the outlook for China for 2013 and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.

Roubini takes on Yellen, a clash for the ages

Chamberlain vs. Russell.  Magic vs. Bird. Gibson vs. Eckersley, and now Roubini vs. Yellen. Sometimes it takes one great competitor to bring out the best of another.

In a moment of magic at an otherwise dense IMF discussion of post-financial-crisis monetary policy, Nouriel Roubini, known for his pessimistic outlook and aversion to economic policymakers, procured a microphone and asked Fed Vice Chair Janet Yellen if, maybe, just maybe, she was all wrong about the looming threat of asset bubbles.
Roubini had in mind Yellen’s earlier prepared remarks to the panel that she didn’t see any clear and present danger of an asset bubble and her conclusion that bank regulatory policy was the best flame retardant to combat any overheated markets.

He slyly noted that other top Fed officials, notably the new whiz kid of the Fed board, Jeremy Stein, have raised some doubts that  regulatory policy is the best way to burst a bubble.
read more  http://blogs.marketwatch.com/thetell/2013/04/16/roubini-takes-on-yellen-a-clash-for-the-ages/ >>>>>>

Roubini ‏: The Eurozone Malaise spreading to the core

Nouriel Roubini ‏: ZEW survey of German confidenxe plunges in April, now consistent with Ifo and PMI signals. EZ malaise spreading to the core - in twitter

Roubini ‏: BITCOIN dropped another 40% While everyone was focused on Gold & Silver

Nouriel Roubini ‏: In good company with Gold. @Convertbond: While everyone was focused on Gold and Silver, #BITCOIN dropped another 40%, traded below $58 - in twitter

Roubini : Gold Bugs Eat your Gold!

Nouriel Roubini : Gold Bugs & @JamesGRickards in stupefied catatonic state as gold now has fallen from a peak of $1950 in 2011 to $1350 today. Eat your gold! - in twitter

Roubini : Spain is The Elephant in The Room

Nouriel Roubini : "You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line." "But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out." - in recent interview with CNBC

Roubini : There is not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the Eurozone

Nouriel Roubini : "There's not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail out the IMF or the Eurozone.""So at some point you need restructuring. At some point you need the creditors of the banks to take a hit —otherwise you put all this debt on the balance sheet of government. And then you break the back of government—and then government is insolvent." - in a recent interview with CNBC

Roubini ‏: Gold Loses Its Luster

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Gold, Long a Secure Investment, Loses Its Luster NYT http://nyti.ms/16SYz6Z " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Goldman Cuts Gold Price Forecast Through 2014

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Goldman Cuts Gold Price Forecast Through 2014 as Cycle Turns http://bloom.bg/153dFdX It lowered the 6 &12-month predictions to $1490 & $1390 - in twitter

Roubini : Japanese Rush to Sell Gold as Price in Yen Jumps

Nouriel Roubini : "Japanese Rush to Sell Gold as Price in Yen Jumps" So much for the view that yen fall will lead to more gold demand http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424127887323820304578412283865306950.html … " - in twitter

Roubini ‏: Bitcoin another irrational useless bubble for the Gold-bug suckers

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Bubble Bitcoin has appreciated by 10000% relative to gold in the last two years. So does it mean that we should all dump gold for Bitcoin? " "Gold-bug suckers found another irrational useless bubble fad, the Bitcoin, the bubble flavor of the day. So they are dissin gold 4 Bitcoin" - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold Risky, Volatile Bubbly Asset with no Income

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold peaked at $1900 in Sept 2011. Now down to $1550. So where is gold at 2k, 3k, 4k, 10k? Gold risky, volatile bubbly asset with no income - in twitter

Roubini : Twitter worked fine with my blackberry phone while in China

Nouriel Roubini : Paul, Twitter worked fine with my blackberry phone while in China.. @paulmromer: Back from long visit in China (with no access to Twitter) - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini likes U.S. Stocks for Now

Nouriel Roubini : "I've been suggesting you should be overweight in the U.S. equities for the time being," "The forces of slow but improving growth, massive liquidity and continued Fed easing, reduction of tail risk, of low volatility, of low risk aversion can continue for awhile."

Nouriel Roubini : no one should think that any government bonds are completely safe, particularly from inflation and financial repression

Nouriel Roubini : A lot has changed since 2005. We had the financial crisis, and some of the factors cited by Bernanke have substantially reversed. For example, Asian investment is booming again, led by China. And yet global interest rates are even lower now than they were then. Why?
There are several competing theories, most of them quite elegant, but none of them entirely satisfactory. One view holds that long-term growth risks have been on the rise, raising the premium on assets that are perceived to be relatively safe, and raising precautionary saving in general. (Of course, no one should think that any government bonds are completely safe, particularly from inflation and financial repression.) Certainly, the 2008 financial crisis should have been a wakeup call to proponents of the “Great Moderation” view that long-term volatility has fallen. Many studies suggest that it is becoming more difficult than ever to anchor expectations about long-term growth trends. Witness, for example, the active debate about whether technological progress is accelerating or decelerating. Shifting geopolitical power also breeds uncertainty. - in project-syndicate

Roubini Sees Upside Surprise for Stocks, But ...

Nouriel Roubini likes U.S. stocks for the time being, but warns there are still some serious risks that could hurt equities.

Roubini : Japan is trying a new Economic Experiment to stop Deflation

Nouriel Roubini : Farther East, Japan is trying a new economic experiment to stop deflation, boost economic growth, and restore business and consumer confidence. “Abenomics” has several components: aggressive monetary stimulus by the Bank of Japan; a fiscal stimulus this year to jump start demand, followed by fiscal austerity in 2014 to rein in deficits and debt; a push to increase nominal wages to boost domestic demand; structural reforms to deregulate the economy; and new free-trade agreements – starting with the Trans-Pacific Partnership – to boost trade and productivity. - in project-syndicate.org

Roubini : China has many Problems

Nouriel Roubini : In China, the leadership transition has occurred smoothly. But the country’s economic model remains, as former Premier Wen Jiabao famously put it, “unstable, unbalanced, uncoordinated, and unsustainable.”  China’s problems are many: regional imbalances between its coastal regions and the interior, and between urban and rural areas; too much savings and fixed investment, and too little private consumption; growing income and wealth inequality; and massive environmental degradation, with air, water, and soil pollution jeopardizing public health and food safety. - in project-syndicate

The Global Economy on the Fly

by Nouriel Roubini :

ISTANBUL – In the last four weeks, I have traveled to Sofia, Kuala Lumpur, Dubai, London, Milan, Frankfurt, Berlin, Paris, Beijing, Tokyo, Istanbul, and throughout the United States. As a result, the myriad challenges facing the global economy were never far away.
In Europe, the tail risk of a eurozone break-up and a loss of market access by Spain and Italy were reduced by last summer’s decision by the European Central Bank to backstop sovereign debt. But the monetary union’s fundamental problems – low potential growth, ongoing recession, loss of competitiveness, and large stocks of private and public debt – have not been resolved.

Moreover, the grand bargain between the eurozone core, the ECB, and the periphery – painful austerity and reforms in exchange for large-scale financial support – is now breaking down, as austerity fatigue in the eurozone periphery runs up against bailout fatigue in core countries like Germany and the Netherlands.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/surveying-the-world-economy-s-myriad-problems-by-nouriel-roubini#IJFEHHeUud8XlvUI.99

Nouriel Roubini : The UK on the verge of triple Dip Recession

Nouriel Roubini : Indeed the UK on the verge of triple dip recession @D_Blanchflower: Bad cips manufacturing pmi for uk keeps fear of triple dip alive - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : US and Japan are in better shape compared to the rest of the developed countries

Nouriel Roubini : "Among advanced economies, the US is in the best relative shape, followed by Japan, where Abenomics is boosting confidence." - in a recent article