Roubini warns of Spanish Debt Trap

Speaking at a conference, New York University (NYU) Economics Professor Nouriel Roubini has offered his economic forecasts for Spain, stating that growth will not surpass 1 per cent during the next three or four years, Spanish daily El Economista reports.

Roubini added that growth will not be enough to reduce the excessive unemployment rate. Although he acknowledged that exports have improved, Roubini explained that Spaniards will find themselves in a debt trap as salaries fall in an internal devaluation necessary to improve competitiveness and as home prices fall, making households more indebted in turn hurting domestic demand.

Roubini, nicknamed Doctor Doom for his gloomy predictions, added that Spanish debt dynamics over the medium-term do not appear sustainable.

However, Spain, unlike Italy, no longer faces the risk of losing market access, Roubini pointed out. - See more at: http://www.ifamagazine.com/news/doctor-doom-warns-of-spanish-debt-trap-284312#sthash.MOAN5nG9.dpuf

Nouriel Roubini : Spain is starting to Recover

Nouriel Roubini : "After our meeting with politicians in Madrid we can conclude that the recession has bottomed.'ve Confirmed that the long contraction Spain is showing signs of diminishing. Any hope that the data of GDP to turn positive in late 2013 is premature, but the probability of higher qualification, stagnation recession is greater ".

And Roubini adds :

"The main problem facing the Spanish economy is the lack of recovery efforts. Symptoms to the acute phase of the crisis have been falling in the acceptance and passivity."

     "On one hand, the remarkable efforts of long-term structural reform, particularly the improvement of unit labor costs and labor market flexibility, have made a positive-momentum transmitted by exports and tourism. But on the other, Spanish politicians have little hope that the Europeans will offer serious antidotes against the legacy of austerity ".

     "We have also noted that politicians countered pessimistic IMF forecasts a 0% growth in 2013 to 2017 and GDP growth of only 1% in 2018".

Read More : http://www.periodistadigital.com/economia/empresas/2013/08/18/nouriel-roubini-espana-esta-lejos-de-arrancar-pero-ya-ha-comenzado-a-recuperarse.shtml

Credit Crunch is still severe in Spain as policy cycle is procyclical

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Yesterday policy meetings in Madrid. Today policy meeting in Berlin. Credit crunch is still severe in Spain as policy cycle is procyclical - in twitter

Roubini :Spain is the real nightmare Domino

But the real nightmare domino is Spain. Roubini refers to the Spanish debt problems as "the elephant in the room".
"You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line."
"But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out."

Roubini : Spain is too big to fail, and too big to be bailed out

Nouriel Roubini : "You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line." "But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out." - in a recent interview with CNBC

Roubini : Spain is The Elephant in The Room

Nouriel Roubini : "You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line." "But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out." - in recent interview with CNBC

Roubini : Spain may end up in Troika

Nouriel Roubini : " If Rajoy waits too long to trigger the EFSF, those in ECB & core EZ against SMP2.0 may end up having upper hand & Spain may end up in Troika " - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini : Spain too large to be saved

Nouriel Roubini : " Spain is not only too big for it could be allowed to fail - it is also too large to be saved."
Roubini told a German newspaper , Nouriel Roubini is one of the few economists who warned in 2006, about the financial crisis. Because of his often pessimistic forecasts, he also carries the nick name "Dr. Doom" He did not rule that the debt crisis could spread to Italy and Belgium.

Roubini : The probability that Spain will lose in the next twelve months access to financial markets, is at 50 percent

"The probability that Spain will lose in the next twelve months access to financial markets, is at 50 percent," Economist Nouriel Roubini said recently in London in a speech to the London Business School of Economics. In the worst case could spill over the debt crisis of Europe, the United States. "It may well come in the bond markets to a rebellion against the United States." The probability is was low, but it is increasing. "We must not underestimate this risk."

Roubini : Spain is the big elephant in the room

Portugal will also likely to need a bailout , but Spain is the "big elephant in the room" in the euro debt crisis said Nouriel Roubini, the New York University professor and co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics At a conference yesterday in Prague, "There is not enough official money to bail out Spain if trouble occurs," Mr. Roubini said, as reported by Bloomberg News.

Roubini : Spain too big to fail and too big to be bailed out

Nouriel Roubini : "You can try to ring fence Spain. And you can essentially try to provide financing officially to Ireland, Portugal, and Greece for three years. Leave them out of the market. Maybe restructure their debt down the line...But if Spain falls off the cliff, there is not enough official money in this envelope of European resources to bail out Spain. Spain is too big to fail on one side—and also too big to be bailed out."
"The next one in line is going to be Portugal. Due to the severity of Portuguese debt problems, Portugal is going to lose market access—and that means they are going to require IMF support as well."
"Now you have a bunch of super sovereigns— the IMF, the EU, the eurozone—bailing-out these sovereigns...There's not going to be anyone coming from Mars or the moon to bail-out the IMF or the Eurozone." Roubini said recently in a CNBC interview

Arnab Das of RGE discusses Spain situation

Das Says Spain Needs to `Shore Up' Financial System

June 8 (Bloomberg) -- Arnab Das, head of global markets research at Roubini Global Economics, talks with Bloomberg's Deirdre Bolton about Spain's austerity measures and the need to bolster the nation's financial system. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nouriel Roubini : if Spain Goes Under it is a disaster

Greece is only a Eurozone problem , Spain is a global problem explains Nouriel Roubini

"If Greece goes under, that's a problem for the eurozone. If Spain goes under, it's a disaster," Nouriel Roubini, economics professor at the Stern School of Business at New York University, said at the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland last month.
The Spanish economy, the fifth largest in Europe, has been mired in recession since the end of 2008 as the global financial crisis hastened a correction that was already underway in its once-buoyant property sector.

Nouriel Roubini : Spain has become The battle ground for the future of Europe.

Nouriel Roubini on The Spanish Economic Crisis : Zapatero has exacerbated the problems of Spain Roubini wrote in El Econimista

Dr.Nouriel Roubini wrote an article the Spanish magazine El Economista in which he explained that Spain is headed for some hard time : "“It’s true that Spain is not Greece, yet it’s not Ireland either, but if such an important economy is unable to stop the deficit slip toward the debt levels of Greece, the distinctions will end up being merely academic,” Roubini wrote , "Zapatero has exacerbated the problems in managing the crisis" and Labor wants to eliminate subsidized contracts
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