Nouriel Roubini : things are going to get worse before they get better | NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

Sunday, September 19, 2010

Nouriel Roubini : things are going to get worse before they get better

Roubini : .... if you consider what happens, growth in second quarter was estimated originally at 2.4 then at 1.6. Given the new housing numbers are going to be revised to 1.2 that is already a growth recession and we know there is second half of the year is going to be worse than the first half because all the tailwinds to growth become headwinds. We have had the fiscal stimulus come to the economic growth, the base effects are gone, the inventory adjustments are gone and demand for homes has fallen. So we know the second half is going to be worse than the first half, you look at the data for July and August, they all suggest the slowdown and if you start from 1.2 in Q2, the third quarter looks lacking less than 1% and 1% maybe not technically a double dip recession but it is going to feel like recession because there is not going to be job creation.

Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

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Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.