Nouriel Roubini, CNBC Interview 15 Feb 2011 - insight on the economy and markets

Final insight on the economy and markets, with Frederic Mishkin, former Federal Reserve Board governor; Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics; and Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group.

Nouriel Roubini : things are going to get worse before they get better

Roubini : .... if you consider what happens, growth in second quarter was estimated originally at 2.4 then at 1.6. Given the new housing numbers are going to be revised to 1.2 that is already a growth recession and we know there is second half of the year is going to be worse than the first half because all the tailwinds to growth become headwinds. We have had the fiscal stimulus come to the economic growth, the base effects are gone, the inventory adjustments are gone and demand for homes has fallen. So we know the second half is going to be worse than the first half, you look at the data for July and August, they all suggest the slowdown and if you start from 1.2 in Q2, the third quarter looks lacking less than 1% and 1% maybe not technically a double dip recession but it is going to feel like recession because there is not going to be job creation.


Nouriel Roubini, of Roubini Global Economics, shares his economic outlook with Richard Trumka, of the AFL-CIO, and CNBC's Maria Bartiromo.

Roubini to CNBC We Are in the Mother of All Carry Trades

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, RGE Monitor, told CNBC Monday.

"There is a wall of liquidity…chasing assets," Roubini told "Squawk Box."

"Now we are in the mother of all carry trades,"
"The reality is that the dollar is the funding currency of the carry trades. Because of that the dollar weakness is going to continue for a while."
"The (stock) markets are pricing in a V-shaped recovery," Roubini said. "If the data surprise on the downside then there is going to be a significant correction."

The price of oil may also be among the assets that will fall.

"It seems to me that this rally in oil prices is way ahead of the economy," Roubini said.

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US falls 3rd in bank ranking after UK Australia

Ranking Global Financial Leaders US losing the First place

In a ranking of financial development released by the World Economic Forum The United States went down from first to third place after the U.K. and Australia .
"There is a trade-off," said Nouriel Roubini CEO of RGE Global Monitor and co-author of the study. "Countries with more regulation in financial systems are more stable, but access to credit is much weaker."

Roubini noted that, while financial stability is important, overtime financial innovation is key to provide the necessary financing to the economy and ensure growth.

Roubini Doctor Realist on CNBC 05 October 2009

Roubini Says Stocks Have Risen Too Much, Too Soon

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Unemployment Will Rise Through 2010 says Roubini

"Not just [unemployment] going to go above 10 percent but the risk is it's going to stay above this level and return to more normal only more gradually and that's going to be one of the important sources of weakness for an economic recovery."




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US Economy Facing Death by a Thousand Cuts Roubini

Interviewed by CNBC Roubini said "It's going to be death by a thousand cuts," Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor and professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business adds "The financial system is severely damaged, and it's not just the banks."
"The gap between supply and demand is so huge we could stop producing new homes for a year to get rid of all the inventory," he said. "This price adjustment, in my opinion, is going to continue for another year."
"We already were in the middle of a very severe crisis. Saying that bailout out Lehman, everything would have been OK, is nonsense," he said. "Lehman was a symptom of the crisis, not the cause of the crisis."

The financial crisis would have happened even if Lehman Brothers was bailed out Nouriel Roubini

US Economy is Facing Death by a Thousand Cuts says Roubini

The financial crisis would have happened even if Lehman Brothers was bailed out, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of RGEMonitor.com, told CNBC. He discusses the anniversary of the firm's collapse and the state of global financial markets.

"It's going to be death by a thousand cuts," said Roubini, chairman of RGE Monitor and economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business. "The financial system is severely damaged, and it's not just the banks."

Roubini predicted more than 1,000 financial institutions could fail before all is said and done.

"The gap between supply and demand is so huge we could stop producing new homes for a year to get rid of all the inventory," Roubini added. "This price adjustment, in my opinion, is going to continue for another year."

"We already were in the middle of a very severe crisis. Saying that bailout out Lehman, everything would have been OK, is nonsense" he said. "Lehman was a symptom of the crisis, not the cause of the crisis."

Roubini Emerging Economies Will Outperform Sept 07 2009

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Emerging economies like China, India and Brazil will outperform advanced economies because they did not have the same excesses of leverage and have high savings rates, Nouriel Roubini, economist Dr. Doom, told CNBC 's Maria Bartiromo
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Bank Balance Sheets Post Biggest Threat To Recovery

China is too small to be the main engine of global growth

" The debt ratios of banks and (individuals) are very high; (Individuals) have barely started saving. So what we’ve done is socialize these private losses and now we have a massive releveraging of the public sector with large and unsustainable budget deficits." Roubini told CNBC Fast Money...
"I don’t believe China can be the main locomotive of global growth – China GDP is only $3 trillion the US is $15 trillion. Chinese total consumption is $1 trillion the US is $10 trillion.
So China is too small to be the main locomotive of engine of global growth, and there are excesses right now in China like froth in the real estate and the stock market. And there is now the beginning of a correction. And if there was a sharp slowdown in China, that’s going to be again negative for the global economy." Roubini said in the same interview about China

Nouriel Roubini Recession to end by December but market may correct

Recession to end by December but market may correct Nouriel Roubini

Nouriel Roubini also named Dr Doom for accurately forecasting the financial crisis before it happened , said that the risk of the US economy slipping into a near depression had been eliminated due to the massive fiscal stimulation by the government.

“However, we are already now in the 20th month of this severe recession, the worse we have had since the last 60 years. It’s going to be over by December I believe, exactly 24 months as I had said long before.” Roubini said
"asset prices would have gone higher had there not been a significant rally due to the avoidance of the depression, lesser risk aversion and improvement in the global economic outlook". “The question is whether we are going to eye too much too soon, too fast compared to the improvement of the economic fundamentals and in my view there is a risk of a correction.” Nouriel added

Nouriel Roubini Double Dip Recession a Possibility

The world economy still risks a double-dip recession if oil prices rise toward $100 per barrel and if huge U.S. government debts frighten investors, Nouriel Roubini, professor of economics and chairman of RGE Monitor, told CNBC.
"There is a risk, a low probability for a double dip" Nouriel Roubini said
"Asset prices should go higher, the question is too much, too soon, too high? In my view there is the risk of a correction,"
"I can still see downside risks for financial institutions," he added
"It could lead to a double dip. I'm not saying it's going to happen but it's a risk,"
"I see weak economic growth, weak consumption, even if there will be a recovery."

Nouriel Roubini discussses the economy with the other Dr Doom Marc Faber

Downside Risk for Commodity Prices says Nouriel Roubini

Professors Nouriel Roubini of New York University co founder and chairman of RGE says the recession will continue to the end of the year , The commodities prices will surprise in the downside because of the slow recovery of the advanced economies , China's stockpiling of commodities may come to a halt or slow down "My concern is that China might have accumulated an inventory of commodities that is probably excessive to the growth of its economy," he told delegates, adding that the recession would "continue to the end of the year".says Roubini

Nouriel Roubini on CNBC May 6 2009

Prolonging the Recovery Process
The improvement of the financial condition of the U.S. financial system might take longer than otherwise because two key issues aren't being addressed. Nouriel Roubini, co-founder & chairman at RGE Monitor tells CNBC's Karen Tso what they are.