NOURIEL ROUBINI:.... I would argue that in Germany in the core of
the eurozone, there is also bailout fatigue. They say, for example, the
Greeks had a Big Fat Greek Wedding, not for long weekend but for the
last 20 years. We give them a first bailout, a second bailout, many
Germans want to pull the plug.
In China, you
have a new government at the end of the year. Either they move away from
net exports, from too much savings, from too much capital investments
towards more consumption, or otherwise by next year China could have
also a hard landing.
In the U.S., we have
shale gas. I think it has been hyped a bit too much. It's going to help
the energy needs of the U.S., but that revolution may take 10 to 20
years. If there is a war in the Middle East next year, the shock to all
prices is going to tip the U.S. into a recession because we're not going
to be energy independent for at least another decade. - in NPR
