NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

Showing posts with label China Hard Landing. Show all posts

Sunday, August 19, 2012

China Hard Landing by 2013

NOURIEL ROUBINI:.... I would argue that in Germany in the core of the eurozone, there is also bailout fatigue. They say, for example, the Greeks had a Big Fat Greek Wedding, not for long weekend but for the last 20 years. We give them a first bailout, a second bailout, many Germans want to pull the plug.
In China, you have a new government at the end of the year. Either they move away from net exports, from too much savings, from too much capital investments towards more consumption, or otherwise by next year China could have also a hard landing.
In the U.S., we have shale gas. I think it has been hyped a bit too much. It's going to help the energy needs of the U.S., but that revolution may take 10 to 20 years. If there is a war in the Middle East next year, the shock to all prices is going to tip the U.S. into a recession because we're not going to be energy independent for at least another decade. - in NPR

Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.