NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Wednesday, September 23, 2020
👉Get Ready for October Market Surprise & Global Financial Crisis 2.0
👉Get Ready for October Market Surprise & Global Financial Crisis 2.0
Get Ready for October Market Surprise & Global Financial Crisis 2.0
A financial crisis could surprise investors sooner rather than later, Deutsche Bank warns.
The stock market is just speculation at this point.
It has been overpriced for years.
It is only a matter of time before investors realize that there is no value in this market. The forward PE Ratio on the S&P 500 is still around 25, and that is assuming 40% earnings growth/rebound. Even if the growth/rebound happens, who would invest with the principal returned every 25 years?
Pressuring down won't last; it will soon be a stampede for the exits. The majority of youthful investors, and even businessmen, have never experienced a bear market, and invest as if every drop is another buying point. Sure, they will be surprised.
October is traditionally a tricky month as is November, with investors harvesting their capital losses for tax purposes as the end of the tax year looms. There is no question however that a CV19 second wave return, as some European countries are seeing now carrying the risk of a second lockdown, would be treacherous for both the markets and the real economy, dependent as they are on the holidays' spending.
And if the Fed loses control and interest rates rise significantly, both stocks and bonds will crash.
Just look at the NYSE composite; that is all industries and all companies equally. It never got back more than down 9% from where it was. This is not a V recovery for Apple and Amazon, but not the economy. The real recession is just starting. The virus was like the shock and awe part, and now the war begins with the build-up of troops. I would say this time in two years,the economy will actually be growing over where it was. We can't compare to the shutdown economy; anything would look good compared to that.
By flooding the markets with ever more artificially cheap money, the Fed has made risk seem like a thing of the past. This is going to end very badly, and this time it will take much longer to come back.
For a few decades now, our economy has been based on giving tax cuts to big corporations and the super-rich, while slowly steadily bankrupting everyone else. No money spent in R&D, no investing for the long haul, no building infrastructure, no funding education.All money given back to the CEOs in bonuses and stock buybacks, and borrowing larger and larger amounts of money to pay for it all. It's all unsustainable.
The Nasdaq can drop 50% and still be overpriced.
Corporate Profits have stagnated since 2015, yet the stocks somehow have surged well over 50% during that time, to the point where stock valuations hit levels not seen since 2000 and 1929. Meanwhile CV-19 is taking a bite out of the economy and will be a drag on the economy for at least a few years. Anyone simply looking at fundamentals could have seen this house of cards was eventually going to collapse.
Welcome back to The Atlantis Report. You are here for your daily dose of the truth, the whole truth, and nothing but the truth. Please take a second to click the like button. And as You know friends, I rely on your donations to keep this channel functional; as you know, it takes a crazy amount of research and time to bring you this content on a daily basis, so I hope you consider helping with whatever donation you can afford. Thank You.
We are already in a financial crisis; it simply hasn't been officially declared. When was the last time you remember the U.S. Government pumping three trillion dollars into the economy to keep it going. They want three trillion dollars more. We were twenty-three trillion dollars in debt prior to the pandemic. We have created a crisis. Our government spending requires us to borrow big in both good times and bad.
A US Government debt crisis is coming! When it does, all those big government programs will come to a sudden end. And the US Dollar will be destroyed by hyperinflation. Add in unfunded liabilities, and things get unmanageable that much sooner.
All this due to the Fed's helicopter money, which Jerome Powell calls digital money. Plan and prepare for the collapse of the house of cards!
We're already in a financial crisis. The Fed just hasn't pulled the band-aid off yet. Reality will surface at some point.
I do not believe that tightening needs to begin to trigger a Global Financial Crisis 2.0.
Bad debts will be sufficient due to the sheer scale of defaults, which are likely. The difference is that in previous occasions, an increase in rates results in an inability to service debt due to borrowers already being overextended and the rate increase making it impossible to service the new loan repayments. But this time around, it does not matter what the rate is because the loss of employment and collapse of small/med/large business means that the borrowers can't service the debt no matter what the rate is. This situation is far worse than tightening triggering a financial crisis because, in that circumstance, the Fed can always reverse their decision and lower rates again. This time the FED has no room to move on rates, and the rate is irrelevant if you have no income.
We are already past the point of no return. Now only the nature of the financial default and its timing is unknown.
This market is still massively overvalued! And I also believe the next financial crisis is going to be the really big one! And it could actually be starting right now with the big banks' crisis! Epic debt, you name it! And it certainly appears the momentum on the long side is over!
Banks are in an ugly spotlight after the publication of suspicious activity reports that BuzzFeed said shows banks knowingly allowed money laundering for years, involving $2 trillion in transactions in question. U.S. big banks have also been mentioned.
What goes up without fundamental justification goes down eventually. Bubbles always expand until they burst. This one has sprung a leak and may just shrink away.
Massive bubbles popping, an Epic real estate bubble blowing, deep corrections and crashes. Robinhoohers need to be scared right out of their accounts to bottom!
Smart Investors will not be surprised, speculators will be.
There ain't no free lunch. You can't draw on a credit card forever. There comes a time when you can't pay the interest on the debt, and things implode. Inflating it away is mental masturbation; it doesn't work.
At least the next two generations of Americans are dead broke before they are even born.
This is all part of the plan. They want to run the debt up so high the country goes bankrupt. Then they will give people a choice to either lose most or all of their assets or agree to accept a new world globalist system. They will, of course, abandon their rights and nationality.
In a nutshell, the fact that people can't see that we are being purposely bankrupted is astounding to me. The debt has been on a parabolic trend since the Bush years; there was never any way to ratchet it down. Central banks have been doing this for centuries, and yet the populace is never the wiser.
The economic reality is worse than people tend to believe. I said it many times, one-third of the economy has been destroyed. And without an end to lockdowns and a new stimulus package, fifty percent of the economy will be destroyed by Christmas.
US government data is false; the real unemployment rate is higher than 20%. Millions of jobs are not coming back.
The real Unemployment Rate is 28%, and that is expected to climb even more as the airline industry is getting ready to lay off tens of thousands of their employees.
By the end of the year, 40 million-plus Americans face mass eviction and 25 million thrown into foreclosure.
We are sitting ln a powder keg.
So many desperate Americans who want to work and can't.
Wealthy affluent buyers of real estate are able to relocate. There is a great exodus from many states to safer states.
This is causing price inflation in some regions, but in other regions, real estate prices are falling.
But average working Joe can't move their families. Thus, they're refinancing mortgages for a stimulus boost. That's all they have left to do.
Large states with huge economies like California and New York are CV-19 war zones. This is why many smaller state economies don't see the economic damage done in the larger economies. Yes, they're in lockdown, and it's destroying the economy. This must stop now.
So expect a Market October Surprise.
One, a stock market crash in October, maybe next. The markets have been oblivious to the damage done to the overall economy. Another input is a political input; Wall Street may not like a Biden Harris ticket because higher taxes on Middle-Class America means less consumption and less market participation. Smart money could start a panic selling wave in October.
Second, geopolitical escalation from China-US issues. War can break out at any second. A China-US war would also cause a panic sell-off.
These two points could be a dynamic trader are concerned with, and this can grow into a major risk.
Stimulus doesn't steal wealth from the future; it merely serves to dilute the value of the currency it is issued in.
The trillions won't be paid back; anybody who thinks that needs a serious reality check.
We are in the Endgame now for the economy.
Technology has made Business, Economic, Financial, and Investing Markets a massive Global Enterprise. Monetary and Fiscal policy and Currencies are totally ruined and ineffective now because of the corrupt Central Banking Systems around the world. There's a massive bubble that encompasses Asset valuation, Credit, and Currency that technology and Global cooperation has been tenuously holding together since 2008. There will be a massive Global Economic and Financial reset. It's just a matter of time. And, oh, by the way, no one but the most powerful insiders will see it coming.
I am expecting the market to start crashing before the elections. It cannot be called a crash yet, but all the major indexes are just below their 50-day moving average. The algorithms are going to start short selling and would lead to a pushdown.
Fasten your seat belts. And return your tray table to the full upright and locked position.
This was The Atlantis Report. Please Like. Share. Leave me a comment. Subscribe. And please take some time to subscribe to my back up channels; I do upload videos there too. You'll find the links in the description box. You will also find a PayPal link if you want to make a donation. Thank you wholeheartedly to all those of you who have already donated. Stay safe and healthy friends!
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Subscribe to:
Post Comments (Atom)
No comments:
Post a Comment