NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Tuesday, September 22, 2020
👉The Fed Creating Deflation while Exporting Inflation to the World through The Dollar
👉The Fed Creating Deflation while Exporting Inflation to the World through The Dollar
The free market, or what little there was left, showed rates were going to 10% last September until the Fed intervened (repo crisis). The historical average seems to be around 5%. So like a rubber band, if they keep it artificially stretched for too long at 0%, it’ll either break into a deflationary crash; or snapback, and we get hyperinflation.
Today, America is borrowing money like a drunken sailor and handing out stimulus like Santa. Running massive budget deficits and holding interest rates low.
This causes inflation in the US. Everyone is incented to borrow dollars and spend them quickly. No one wants to hold dollars ;
because you earn a low rate and lose value to inflation. So the dollar weakens.
But first, get ready for major deflation, right after the upcoming crash, which will be twice as intense as what we saw in March.
We've been hearing the calls for hyperinflation for over ten years now a post-financial crisis. What happened? We are exporting it via our currency to poorer nations. Deflation seems to be the major issue we constantly run up against every decade or so.
Print money and hand it out to everybody, you'll have consumer inflation. Print money and hand it out to the rich, you'll have asset inflation. The Fed is concerned only about the former, not the latter.
Depressionary deflation is far more likely than inflation. Yet again, Mom and Pop America will pick up the tab for the Fed's reckless policies. Oh well, at least we had that tax cut for the ridiculously rich, which did not trickle down.
Inflation will ultimately be a sideshow. It's the decades upon decades of drunken sailor spending and promised multiples of that that will lead to our demise. Anyone that knows the debt, deficit, and promised future entitlements figures are (which are multiples of the burgeoning debt) should understand this. Inflation will be just one facet of future problems.
Blame whichever party you wish. My personal opinion is that both parties are culpable.
The larger truth is Americans, for decades, have expected something for nothing. They are the ones that elected those that made the untenable promises. They fooled themselves.
The economy is about to give the stock, bond, and housing markets a very rude wakeup call.
Free and easy money and politicians want to spend trillions more, instead of completely opening up our economy. With the shutdown, we destroyed millions of small businesses in favor of the big conglomerates.
The reality is that the only way to weather this economically is to pump money into the economy. So, expect lots of quantitative easing and possibly negative rates until people wake up and exchange misguided economics for the sound economics that weathered the 2008 meltdown.
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Depressions cause all assets to fall in value because of the value of cash increases. The reason cash increases in value is that it is destroyed when debt is defaulted on, and debt default is going to be apocalyptic going forward. Gold will do better than most assets, but cash will be what people need, and there will be a shortage of it, so its value will increase substantially, just as it did in the great depression. All assets will go on sale at fire-sale prices, and the people with cash will have the opportunity to buy everything for pennies on the dollar.
Prices don't go up; the purchasing of fiat goes down. This is the global history of fiat since humans first attempted it. It's never worked. Debt always spins out of control, and the system fails. Sometimes it takes decades, but every single time it has failed in the same exact way. They call it Modern Monetary Theory, but it's not modern, not at all. It's been done hundreds of times. The one thing about history is that humans don't learn from it.
We will be lucky if it's inflation, and if it's inflation, it will be stagflation. For eleven years, the Fed has tried to inflate us out of the deficit caused by the Iraq war, and deregulation driving us into the great recession. The Fed did this by massive borrowing --- skyrocketing the deficit --- and flooding the markets with ever more artificially cheap money. Mom and Pop retiree were forced to eat their seed corn because they could not earn interest on their life savings. It did not work, and there is no reason to think it will work in the midst of this economic crisis. The Fed is trapped and is forced to keep on pouring gasoline onto the fire in the worship of the greatest everything bubble in history. The economy is about to give the stock, bond, and housing markets a very rude wakeup call.
Inflating numbers are a scam run by FED. The data included in the calculation of inflation has been adjusted numerous times to keep it artificially low. So far, the technological progress translated into increased efficiency in every sector of our lives kept inflation numbers in check. On the other hand, this time increased efficiency created by technology won't be able to keep up with the FED printing press, especially if things slow down in 2021. Real inflation in a range of 10% is in the cards for 2021.
The FED charts are notoriously adjusted, like the unemployment figure debacle earlier this year.
If we actually measured real inflation instead of the manipulated BS, the Fed says it is inflation; then, you'd see we are already there in things that actually matter: housing, healthcare, autos, and food. Sure, you can get a big-screen TV cheap these days, but the idea that the government is tracking and reporting inflation accurately is the biggest joke of all.
Consumer prices surge, but inflation still low.
It’s called cost-push inflation, and it’s the precursor to stagflation.
Which if our government or FED is not careful, it will lead to hyperinflation. No matter how much S&P will skyrocket, it'll still be worth pennies.
OfficialiInflation is low right now,no doubt about it. Can't have demand partly collapse and not get some deflation. Will it stay that way? We won't really know until the economy recovers. Asset prices, mainly stocks, clearly are getting a boost from zero rates and other government measures. But they were high even before the pandemic. Home prices are interesting. Got to figure that many people fleeing the city and CV19 are adding to higher prices, but home builders simply have not been building enough stock. A lot of reasons for that.
The problem with inflation is that it’s relative. Asset inflation has never been calculated in inflation adjustments, so the most expensive expenses like housing, healthcare, and education have literally caused an economic catastrophe for the younger generations. Three decades ago, those expenses were 1/3 what they cost today.
Average incomes haven’t gone up three times for the average citizen . For the average American, you would have been better off moving to China 2 decades ago.
There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion. The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved.
Ludwig von Mises.
Good luck printing out of 27 Trillion debt without inflation playing a part. Very telling how fantasy things are when the biggest company in the world a few years ago, which happened to be an oil company, is no longer part of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Maybe Netflix will save the day. Come on.
Inflation is the cruelest tax of all because it is hidden.
By the time the fed is done hyperinflating the currency to worthlessness, the people will be begging for an inflation rate of 20%.
If inflation is a tax per Milton Friedman’s observation, the Fed had no legal right to impose any tax on the citizenry.
Would a 2% tax on the dollar per year pass a Congressional vote? No. The citizenry would not stand for it.
Yet we are supposed to sit and take it.
Inflation steals value, pounds the everyday worker. If the Fed gets their wish, a rate (2%-2.5%) that rips 22% and 28% off the dollar respectively in ten years, there will be more rioting, more societal discord.
Wages, [the price of labor] also go up with inflation. The problem is, it's usually the last thing to go up. The reason is that there is no demand for labor. We aren't a society that produces much; we outsourced our production to 3rd world countries. So who needs the american labor?
That's why 2/3rds of working-age adults are not participating in the workforce. Those that do work are competing for a very limited number of positions. Workers have no value, so the price remains low. The ruling class doesn't feel inflation because all of their assets go up while the wages they pay stay stagnant.
If that were to change, if we really started our manufacturing again and demand for labor went up, then you'd suddenly see a new concern over inflation amongst the ruling class. The fed would do an about-face and talk about controlling inflation, instead of creating it.
Since each dollar is a dollar of debt traditionally, then the interest is at least that amount. Right now, member banks may be getting their money at no interest. The fact is, banks are paying out less than one percent on savings and charging up to 30% on the money they lend. If that's not crooked enough
Centrally-controlled fiat money is highly immoral.
Its been known since the 13th century at least that centrally-issued money always benefits the first-handlers of it. It took 20th-century economists to erase that notion from economic and political thought.
They have put us into the debt trap. Ron Paul is right. End the Fed. We pay interest to them on our own money. America gets farther in debt, and The Fed Elite Bankers continues to stockpile all the money in the world.
They're the most powerful entity in the world, and getting stronger each day they add to the debt.
Currency debasement is the secret to understanding Rome's decline.
It's a recipe for inequality and unpaid armies alike.
Rome's army expanded, and they did debase their currency just like America is doing today. America will suffer the same fate as ancient Rome.Too many parallels.
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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