NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG tracks the media appearances of Dr Nouriel Roubini his interviews articles debates books news speeches conferences blogs etc..Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
Thursday, November 5, 2020
👉The New President will Face a Massive Debt Crisis like no one other.
👉The New President will Face a Massive Debt Crisis like no one other.
The New President will Face a Massive Debt Crisis like no one other.
Although the American people remain eager to be persuaded that a new president in the white house can solve our problems.
The truth is, no matter who wins this presidential election, he will face a massive debt crisis like no one other. A crisis that could dwarf what we experienced in 2008-2009.
The policy of attempting to create a bigger debt bubble as a remedy whenever the previous debt bubble starts to implode can only go on for so long. Eventually, the chickens come home to roost. If you print fake money, to the tune of $14 Trillion, you aren't saving an economy; you are destroying it.
Debt is never a sustainable product.
Inflating our away, as we did after World War II, probably won’t work this time.
They cannot inflate and have low-interest rates at the same time, only if they buy all their newly issued debt because no one else will.
This debt is not going to be repaid or inflated away. The can will just be kicked down the road. The Treasury already twice researched issuing 50-year and 100-year bonds, and the demand was not there in sufficient size to warrant issuance.
The government will raid the 4O1 Ks for the common good.
The satisfying shall come in the form of more taxes, more inflation, and more serfdom, Of course!
The Fed policies will continue under either of them with no changes.
Keep printing trillions until the US currency is worth nothing.
Because the Fed answers to no one.
At least no one that normal people know about.
Today we have the highest levels in the history of deficit and debt.
A whopping $82K per citizen, $217K per taxpayer.
And another 2.17 million when you include Social Security debts. Off the books, of course. They don't want you to know about those.
They almost have us where they want us; as perpetual debt slaves.
Any sane person understands you don’t borrow your way to prosperity. Borrowed money always has to be paid back. This is an unsustainable path and one to watch closely, despite the optimistic assurances of the mainstream.
Banks' only real product is debt.
Bank loans create money and can give the illusion of economic success, but claims on future prosperity are building up in the financial system leading to a financial crisis.
Bank credit effectively moves future spending power into today, and this illusion leaves an impoverished future when the debt is paid back.
If you know how banks really work and what real wealth creation is, you won’t get fooled, but policymakers didn’t.
Debt, by itself, when used to produce prosperity, is NOT, and has NEVER been a problem, but when debt is the reason for pauperization, additional debts, without liquidating or reducing very significantly, a prior debt, is not only insane but suicidal.
Mainstream economics ignores the bigger elephant in the room; debt. Government debt does matter though, when you take the total yearly interest paid on government debt and divide it by the number of taxpayers.
We are approaching the end game when we see the FED pump massive liquidity into the banking system.
This debt bubble is going to burst soon.
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Corporate bankruptcies are already surging in the US, and many overleveraged small businesses are simply shutting down.
When the debt pyramid does collapse, actually writing off bad debt will be a painful process for the person, business, or institution that holds the paper. It is important to consider how this will all play out or shakedown; this is yet to be determined, but the ramifications remain powerful.
The growth of debt moves us down the path towards a Minsky moment or what might be viewed as a liquidity trap, a term that can be baffling and difficult to understand.
A Minsky moment is when the debt pyramid collapses. This term has been used by Allen Greenspan and a few others; it represents a huge problem for the economy. It can take on several forms, but sooner or later, most of them tend to lead us into one of several possible self-feeding loops that disrupt the flow of credit and impacts the real economy.
The debt that is written off takes something with it when it leaves this world, and that is the wealth of someone else! It is important you make sure you are not that someone else.
Debt forgiveness is how they force people into the system.
When this happens, the only safe place to store wealth will be in tangible assets, and the only lenders will be those who print the money that nobody wants. History shows that at some point when inflation begins to exceed the rate of interest paid, people start altering their buying habits, which can create a self-driving feedback loop.
Private equity firms are using debt leveraged buyouts to acquire companies and asset strip them.
Possible reactions:
The neoliberal – They are making loads of money; this is great.
Someone with a modicum of common sense – This sounds like a really bad idea.
Someone who knows what real wealth creation is - There is no real wealth creation taking place here.
Neoliberals have confused making money with creating wealth.
Banks make the most money when they are driving our economy into a financial crisis.
On a BBC documentary comparing 1929 to 2008, it said the last time US bankers made as much money as they did before 2008 was in the 1920s.
Bankers make the most money when they are driving your economy into a financial crisis.
The bankers loaded the US economy up with their debt products until they got financial crises in 1929 and 2008.
As we head towards the financial crisis, the economy booms due to the money creation of bank loans.
The financial crisis appears to come out of a clear blue sky when you use economics that doesn’t consider debt.
The economics of globalization has always had an Achilles’ heel.
The 1920s roared with debt-based consumption and speculation until it all tipped over into the debt deflation of the Great Depression. No one realized the problems that were building up in the economy as they used economics that doesn’t look at debt, neoclassical economics.
Not considering private debt is the Achilles' heel of neoclassical economics.
The debt monster will lead to the collapse of this rotten monetary system through the Great Stagflation as money seeks a home. It is going to be a chaotic unwind as no one country can impose a new Bretton Woods on the rest. Trade imbalances will have to be settled in gold, hard assets, or at the point of a gun.
Congress created too much federal debt, and since the Board Of Governors of the FED are appointed by the President and confirmed by the Senate, who really controls the FED. Because Congress created the debt monster and still does, the Board Of Governors was simply told by the politicians to force rates low, so the government can reduce its servicing costs. Because of low rates, everyone borrowed from homeowners to corporations, and the FED cannot force banks to lend, nor can they force consumers and businesses to borrow. The FED is trapped as they cannot raise rates on their own as not only the US government would have difficulty servicing debt but states local governments, consumers, and businesses.
Back when FDR was spending massive amounts of money on the war and his social programs, interest rates started to rise, and he simply called in the FED and, in no uncertain terms, told them to cap rates, which they did. It is like Johnson during the Vietnam War when he will tell the Bureau of Economic Analysis at the Commerce Department to change the GDP numbers as he demanded to know what they were before they were released.
Also, Congress in 1913 needed a way to help fund the war and changed the FED's mandate from buying only short-term commercial paper to buying treasuries and government agencies' debt. The FED follows the mandates set by Congress, and the Board of Governors carries out that mandate. The FED cannot print money out of thin air as so many believe, and they have a few tools to make conditions favorable or unfavorable for banks to lend and the public to borrow, but again, the FED cannot force banks to lend to the public to borrow. They can lower rates, lower bank reserves, or increase bank reserves held at the FED, which banks can then borrow against. The FED uses QE to take assets and liquidity from banks, and banks simply have their accounts credited held at the FED by digital-like IOUs, which they cannot take out and spend or loan but only borrow against. As long as it sits there, the FED pays banks currently .1%, and QT is the reverse.
Banks are not lending and creating money and liquidity, and the FED is removing assets and liquidity with QE. As existing loans are paid down, and now new liquidity is created, this created Monetary Deflation. The actual amount of liquidity in the real economy though, has nothing to do with inflation as it is caused by an increase in the velocity of money, and this is caused by consumers and businesses having confidence in the future and spend more and save less. No confidence; the reverse is true. The velocity on money has been decreasing for over a decade with spurts when Congress lowers taxes or recently the past six months stimulus by creating debt. If this money is used to pay down debt or just to survive for consumers and businesses, this does not create inflation as this does not expand the growth of the economy like buying cars, homes, remodeling, or just buying stuff. With all this going on, the Federal Reserve Economic Data shows the economy, for the most part, contracting as there is no new money being created, nor does the public have confidence in the future.
So who really is responsible for the debt, consumers that borrowed and businesses to expand the economy or to just survive, the FED that lowered rates so the US government could service debt or Congress who created the debt?
Regardless , we are in a debt crisis as more debt created by Congress, including stimulus and banks, actually is harmful, and stimulus only lasts two quarters with gross government and public estimated 2020 405% GDP and gross government estimated 127% GDP. As the FED moves rates closer to zero, their power to control diminishes.
This is why starting in 2021/22, we have the Monetary and Sovereign Debt Crisis, and the Pensions Crisis all rolled into one. Extremely low rates have blowback no matter who is at fault, and this is how China becomes the world's financial center post 2032 as the west in general collapses from its own monetary and fiscal policies, massive debt, the coming massive tax increases, and new taxes to pay for it and massive social obligations which none of this can ever be repaid. This is why the US and the west in general, are desperate to create central bank digital currencies per the World Economic Forum agenda, which as the models also forecast, will all fail, but the damage until stopped will be devastating!
The FED doesn’t respond to The US Government. It is a private hold entity bank and institution within itself. And so are other Central Banks around the world within a system itself.
Some have a hard time understanding this, but I say before -- -bankers are the liaison to different, much more powerful people.
Sounds harsh, that is reality.
They want people to spend money on illusion; meanwhile, they are grabbing your wealth without you even seen it. Beast operates in many different ways.
You need to see what's coming and how to prepare for it; if you don't, then you'll be blindsided!
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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics
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