Roubini Sees Dismal Growth

Simon Kennedy and Erik Schatzker
Bloomberg
February 2, 2010
Nouriel Roubini , the New York University professor who anticipated the financial crisis, said the U.S. growth outlook remains “very dismal” and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers said the economy is still mired in a “human recession.”

Speaking at the World Economic Forum’s annual meeting in Davos, Switzerland, after the U.S. reported the fastest growth in six years, their comments underscored concern that that emergency measures to rescue banks and fight the recession may be withdrawn too soon.

“The headline number will look large and big, but actually when you dissect it, it’s very dismal and poor,” Roubini said in a Jan. 30 Bloomberg Television interview following a U.S. Commerce Department report that showed economic expansion of 5.7 percent in the fourth quarter. “I think we are in trouble.”

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Nouriel Roubini On The Massive Debts Of The Rich Nations

The Risky Rich

by Nouriel Roubini

Today Nouriel Roubini points a finger at some of the worst offenders:

“Indeed, rating-agency downgrades, a widening of sovereign spreads, and failed public-debt auctions in countries like the United Kingdom, Greece, Ireland, and Spain provided a stark reminder last year that unless advanced economies begin to put their fiscal houses in order, investors, bond-market vigilantes, and rating agencies may turn from friend to foe. The severe recession, combined with the financial crisis during 2008-2009, worsened developed countries’ fiscal positions, owing to stimulus spending, lower tax revenues, and backstopping and ring-fencing of their financial sectors.

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Roubini warns about The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis

Several Advanced Economies Risk Suffering A Sovereign Debt Crisis, Say Nouriel Roubini And Arpitha Bykere

In an article today on Forbes.com Nouriel Roubini and Arpitha Bykere wrote the following about the danger of The Coming Sovereign Debt Crisis :

"The severe recession, combined with a financial crisis during 2008-09, worsened the fiscal positions of developed countries due to stimulus spending, lower tax revenues and support to the financial sector. The impact was greater in countries that had a history of structural fiscal problems, maintained loose fiscal policies and ignored fiscal reforms during the boom years. Going forward, a weak economic recovery and an aging population is likely to increase the debt burden of many advanced economies, including the U.S., Britain, Japan and several eurozone countries."

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Nouriel Roubini Backs Geithner Plan: NY Daily News

Nouriel Roubini Geithner's new toxic asset plan is a serious step : NY Daily News

New York Daily News:

For the economy to be viable, the financial system must be healthy. For this to occur, the system needs to be cleansed of its poorly performing loans and so-called toxic securities backed by loans. This way, once creditworthy institutions and individuals come to the market looking for capital to borrow, financial firms will be in a position to lend them money.

Secretary Timothy Geithner's new toxic asset plan is a serious step in the right direction in that it creates a public-private partnership to buy the troubled assets of financial firms - in other words, to do the necessary cleansing. Up until now, with all the government bailouts, the financial system has been barely treading water. With this plan, it will still be a hard swim, but, at least, there is a path to shore.

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Nouriel Roubini What to expect from Copenhagen

Roubini Climate Change We Can Believe In

Nouriel Roubini wrote today an article on Forbes about the Copenhagen Climate Change Summit and what could we expect from it , here is a snapshot from the article : Despite lowered expectations for the meeting, climate change mitigation, emissions reductions and clean technology have already benefited from more political firepower and government incentives than at any time in the past. In part, this reflects a growing acceptance of the economic and financial benefits of technological change and energy efficiency as countries seek out the next sources of growth. Thethorniest issues at Copenhagen concern who will finance the transition to a lower carbon economy.

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Roubini Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening

Roubini: Many Jobs Gone Forever

“Conditions in the U.S. labor markets are awful and worsening,” writes Nouriel Roubini in The New York Daily News.

“While the official unemployment rate is already 10.2 percent and another 200,000 jobs were lost in October, when you include discouraged workers and partially employed workers the figure is a whopping 17.5 percent.”
“Remember: The last recession ended in November 2001, but job losses continued for more than a year and half until June of 2003; ditto for the 1990-91 recession,” writes Roubini.
“That fall in hours worked is equivalent to another 3 million full time jobs lost on top of the 7.5 million jobs formally lost,” writes Roubini.

“This is very bad news but we must face facts. Many of the lost jobs are gone forever, including construction jobs, finance jobs and manufacturing jobs.”

US house prices could still fall by 10%, says Roubini

US house prices could still fall by 10%, says pundit who foresaw credit crunch

Economist Nouriel Roubini also warns bank losses on home mortgages likely to be repeated with business premises
Nouriel Roubini, the high-profile US economist who foresaw the credit crunch, warned today that house prices could fall by another 10%, underlining the fragility of America's nascent economic recovery.

Property prices in the US have already dropped by almost a third from their peak, as the crisis spread from lower-paid sub-prime borrowers to engulf the entire housing market. But Roubini said there could still be worse to come – and added that banks' heavy losses on home mortgages are likely to be repeated in the sliding market for business premises.
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Is Roubini not a Doctor Doom anymore ?

Roubini View of Economy Softening Slightly

Nouriel Roubini has seen his star rise faster than almost anyone after predicting a deep recession during what was hailed by some as the “goldilocks” economy of 2006-2007. The so-called “Dr. Doom” is now a legitimate superstar and his words carry a lot of weight. We noted back in July (A Week of Superstar Bears Moving the Market) that Roubini’s remarks were regarded as a change in direction and the stock market rode a wave of positive sentiment much higher. It was surprising to us that such a event that has absolutely nothing to do with market fundamentals would be met with such ebullience from the market. Well, according to Bloomberg.com on Friday, Roubini has started to come around to the idea of recovery.

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said that action by governments and central banks has led to a “bottoming out” of the global recession and that there is “light at the end of the tunnel.”

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The crisis is far from over . The recovery will be anaemic

Nouriel Roubini, the notorious “prophet of doom” before the financial crash, is warning there is a growing risk of a “double dip” recession—in other words, that the present recovery will be followed by another slump, perhaps at the end of next year.

Roubini predicts that the recovery will in any case be “anaemic” just because the problems of the financial system have not been overcome. Moreover, if the stimulus of higher government spending is withdrawn too soon, the world economy will collapse again. This is the mistake Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal administration made, leading to the terrible recession of 1937-8.

So it’s not surprising then that the G20 decided to carry on with government economic stimulus programmes for the time being. No, the crisis is far from over.

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Roubini: “U-shaped” recovery is possible

September 6, 2009

CERNOBBIO, Italy (Reuters) -Nouriel Roubini, a leading economist who predicted the scale of global financial troubles, said a U-shaped recovery is possible, with leading economies undeperforming perhaps for 3 years.

He said there is also an increasing risk of a “double-dip” scenario, however.

“I believe that the basic scenario is going to be one of a U-shaped economic recovery where growth is going to remain below trend … especially for the advanced economies, for at least 2 or 3 years,” he said at a news conference here.

“Within that U scenario I also see a small probability, but a rising probability, that if we don’t get the exit strategy right we could end up with a relapse in growth … a double-dip recession,” he added.

Roubini, a professor at New York University’s Stern School of Business, said he was concerned economies which save a lot, such as China, Japan and Germany, might not boost consumption enough to compensate for any fall in demand from “overspenders” such as the United States and Britain.

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Via Infowars.com

Governments are running Ponzi Schemes Nouriel Roubini

Doctor Doom Nouriel Roubini in his recent article on Forbes entitled The Spend And Borrow Economy dated 08.27.09 explains elegantly the governments deficits and over spending "When governments reach the point where they are borrowing to pay the interest on their borrowing they are coming dangerously close to running a sovereign Ponzi scheme." he said , I could not agree more ...
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Where to Invest in this Global Economy Nouriel Roubini

In an article at Forbes Nouriel Roubini analyzed in details the best places in the world where to invest , despite the global recession , some bright spot on the global economy are still here and there What do these countries have in common? One major theme is that they tended to have lower financial vulnerabilities due to more restrictive regulation and less developed financial market Nouriel Roubini wrote and he went on analyzing the economies of different countries from China to India to South America Europe Asia the middle east and so on and so forth ....
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Nouriel Roubini Why Bernanke Deserves To Be Reappointed

New York Times:

LAST week Ben Bernanke appeared before Congress, setting off a discussion over whether the president should reappoint him as chairman of the Federal Reserve when his term ends next January. Mr. Bernanke deserves to be reappointed. Both the conventional and unconventional decisions made by this scholar of the Great Depression prevented the Great Recession of 2008-2009 from turning into the Great Depression 2.0.

Read the whole story: New York Times

Nouriel Roubini: U.S. Risks Double Dip Recession

The U.S. economy will not recover until the end of this year, and even then growth will remain meek and vulnerable to higher interest rates and commodity prices, economist Nouriel Roubini said on Tuesday.

Roubini, who rose to prominence for predicting the global credit crisis, tore down the "green shoots" theory that a rebound is imminent, saying there was a significant risk of a "double-dip" recession where the economy expands slightly only to begin contracting again.

"In addition to green shoots there are also yellow weeds," he told the Reuters Investment Outlook Summit in New York.
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