BRICS : Emerging Economies May Hit A Thick Wall

"Of course, some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance. But many of the Brics, along with some other emerging economies, may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating." - in The Guardian  

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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Trouble in Emerging-Market Paradise

NEW YORK – During the last few years, a lot of hype has been heaped on the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa). With their large populations and rapid growth, these countries, so the argument goes, will soon become some of the largest economies in the world – and, in the case of China, the largest of all by as early as 2020. But the BRICS, as well as many other emerging-market economies – have recently experienced a sharp economic slowdown. So, is the honeymoon over?
Brazil’s GDP grew by only 1% last year, and may not grow by more than 2% this year, with its potential growth barely above 3%. Russia’s economy may grow by barely 2% this year, with potential growth also at around 3%, despite oil prices being around $100 a barrel. India had a couple of years of strong growth recently (11.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011) but slowed to 4% in 2012. China’s economy grew by 10% per year for the last three decades, but slowed to 7.8% last year and risks a hard landing. And South Africa grew by only 2.5% last year and may not grow faster than 2% this year.

Many other previously fast-growing emerging-market economies – for example, Turkey, Argentina, Poland, Hungary, and many in Central and Eastern Europe – are experiencing a similar slowdown. So, what is ailing the BRICS and other emerging markets?

First, most emerging-market economies were overheating in 2010-2011, with growth above potential and inflation rising and exceeding targets. Many of them thus tightened monetary policy in 2011, with consequences for growth in 2012 that have carried over into this year.

Second, the idea that emerging-market economies could fully decouple from economic weakness in advanced economies was far-fetched: recession in the eurozone, near-recession in the United Kingdom and Japan in 2011-2012, and slow economic growth in the United States were always likely to affect emerging-market performance negatively – via trade, financial links, and investor confidence. For example, the ongoing eurozone downturn has hurt Turkey and emerging-market economies in Central and Eastern Europe, owing to trade links.

 read more : http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/slower-growth-ahead-for-the-brics-and-other-emerging-markets-by-nouriel-roubini

Roubini On the proposed BRICS bank

Nouriel Roubini : Well, BRICS sort of agreed to create the bank that could provide funding for productive investment to BRICS and other emerging markets. The details of that bank are still very fuzzy: Where will it be located? Who will provide most of the capital? Talks of the BRICS bank are a signal that emerging markets are somehow tired about global and financial institutions such as International Monetary Fund and World Bank where the executive boards are still controlled by advanced economies. They want to create a financial institution on which they have greater control. That in some sense is a negative signal because until now approach to financial stability has been driving global institutions, rather than the regional ones.

BRICS are non-homogenous types of countries and economies. Some have political systems which are democratic like India, Brazil and South Africa and some of them are authoritarian like Russia and China. Again, some of them have comparative advantage in goods like China and services like India. It is not a very homogenous group and we need to see whether the BRICS bank is going to materialize and be successful. - in livemint