NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

Showing posts with label Nassim Nicholas Taleb. Show all posts

Thursday, June 16, 2011

A Black Swan event can occur in the next few years

A Black Swan event can occur in the next few years that could lead a 40 percent decline in the S&P, : "from universea investments a $6 billion hedge fund. that hedge fund advised by black swan author, Nicholas Taleb. Kate Kelly obtained a warning. black swan author talib one of the most famous bears out there and now his fund which specializes in positioning clients for extremely negative market scenarios is taking this stunningly bearish position. in a research paper distributed to clients of the fund this week, mark spitnagel argues the likelihood of, are you sitting down, a 40% correction. his dire prediction is based on a look of a 110 years of equity market history and how it core lates to a a metric which is called the cue ratio, a company divided by its total assets, based on past history he asserts the current q ratio of about 1.04, s&p stocks are significantly overvalued and that there's a 20% chance of a more than 40% correction in the offing."

Sunday, March 6, 2011

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - India Today Conclave 2010

Nassim Nicholas Taleb - Philosopher & Expert On Risk - Session Economy - Power of the Unknown- India Today Conclave 2010.

Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.