NOURIEL ROUBINI BLOG

Showing posts with label double dip. Show all posts

Monday, August 30, 2010

What is a Double Dip Recession

With U.S. housing sales last month declining 27 percent from a month ago and the American economy growing less than expected in the second quarter, fears over a double-dip recession are spreading. The term “double dip,” which was created in the U.S. in 2001, refers to an economy falling into recession again after showing brief signs of recovery. Two pillars of the conventional economic cycle are a V-shaped fast recovery after a downturn and a slower U-shaped recovery. Unlike these two patterns, a double dip shows a W-shaped recovery.New York University economist Nouriel Roubini, who foresaw the global financial crisis, predicts a 40 per cent probability of a double dip Recession.US growth would be well below 1 per cent in the third quarter as economic “tailwinds” in the first six months of the year became “headwinds” in the second half of the year, Nouriel Roubini told Bloomberg last week.

Friday, August 27, 2010

Roubini : double dip risk is now 40%

Nouriel Roubini said earlier through his twitter feed that Q3 GDP growth very likely to be below 1%; and likely to be closer to 0% than to a pathetically lousy 1%. So double dip risk is now > 40%” and he confirmed it in an interview with CNBC yesterday CLICK HERE >>> to watch the interview :
“Based on the latest economic data, it looks like the third quarter is going to be well below 1 percent, and certainly closer to zero than to 1 percent, based on the current data,” Roubini told CNBC. “And that’s just the beginning of the second half of the year.” Roubini said several factors that acted as tailwinds boosting the economy in the first half of the year “are going to be essentially headwinds” in the second half.

Nouriel Roubini, (born March 29, 1958, Istanbul, Turkey), Turkish-born American economist and educator who was best known for predicting the 2007–08 subprime mortgage crisis in the United States and the subsequent global financial crisis.

Born to Iranian Jewish parents, Roubini moved with his family to Iran and Israel before they settled in Italy in 1962. After a year at Hebrew University of Jerusalem, he studied economics at Bocconi University in Milan (B.A., 1982) and Harvard University (Ph.D., 1988), where he specialized in macroeconomics and international economics. He joined the economics faculty at Yale University in 1988 and taught there until 1995, when he moved to New York University. He also served as a visiting scholar to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), was a research associate with the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER), held single-year terms on the White House Council of Economic Advisers (1998–99) and at the U.S. Department of the Treasury (1999–2000), and cofounded (2004) the consulting firm Roubini Global Economics. Roubini spent much of his early career studying countries that experienced extreme economic failures, such as Mexico (in 1994), Thailand and other countries associated with the 1997 Asian financial crisis, Russia (1998), and Argentina (2000). He determined that each shared one common element: a massive current account deficit.(www.britannica.com)

Nouriel Roubini is the Chairman and CEO of Roubini Macro Associates, LLC, his own global macroeconomic consultancy firm. He is also a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business. Dr. Roubini has extensive policy experience as well as broad academic credentials. From 1998 to 2000, he served as the senior economist for international affairs on the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then the senior advisor to the undersecretary for international affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises, among other issues. The International Monetary Fund, the World Bank and numerous other prominent public and private institutions have drawn upon his consulting expertise.