The Fiscal Problems in the US are severe, but not as severe as in Japan

Nouriel Roubini : “The fiscal problems in the US are severe, but on a relative basis, they’re not as severe as in Japan, the euro zone and the UK,” he said. “The Fed will exit the zero-interest-rate policy faster than the BOJ, BOE and ECB [Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank], and the dollar will strengthen.” - in afr.com

Roubini : Time to Buy Stocks

”You probably want to be underweight in bonds, and overweight in equities, mainly in the US,” Professor Roubini told attendees at IndexUniverse’s Inside Commodities conference on September 23, 2013.
“Higher interest rates will be a negative for commodities prices.”“The fiscal problems in the US are severe, but on a relative basis, they’re not as severe as in Japan, the euro zone and the UK,” he addded.
“The Fed will exit the zero-interest-rate policy faster than the BOJ, BOE and ECB [Bank of Japan, Bank of England and European Central Bank], and the dollar will strengthen.”“The model of growth is unsustainable ... [but China will become] more consumption-oriented and less resource-oriented.”

The Dollar Is Likely To Become Stronger

Nouriel Roubini : "The Dollar is likely to become stronger rather than weaker. The thing about the U.S. compared to other advanced economies...the fundamentals for the U.S. are much better - in CNBC

Inflation Is Not going to Be A Problem For The Next 2 Or 3 Years

"Those worried about inflation worry about all the money printing leading to that inflation. Inflation in advanced economies is going to be the least of problems developed economies will face in the next two or three years." - in CNBC

Roubini Urges Ukraine to Sign EU Accord Over Russian Deal

“If you join the EU, it means harmonization of regulation,” Roubini said, adding that the trade accord could boost Ukraine’s trade with “any part of the world.” - in Bloomberg

Roubini: U.S. Growth Picture Is Sub-par

Sept. 6 (Bloomberg) -- New York University economics professor Nouriel Roubini comments on the state of the U.S. economy from Cernobbio, Italy. He speaks on Bloomberg Television's "Countdown."

EMERGING MARKETS Decoupling Story Was Over-Hyped

NOURIEL ROUBINI : "Emerging Markets decoupling story was always over-hyped - Fed taper talk reaction shows EMs still linked to developed world." - in Twitter 
Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Nouriel Roubini told to remove hot tub from roof of Manhattan Penthouse

Nouriel Roubini, the economist who earned the nickname "Dr Doom" for predicting the financial crisis, has been ordered to remove the hot tub from the roof of his Manhattan penthouse.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/10287115/Nouriel-Roubini-told-to-remove-hot-tub-from-roof-of-Manhattan-penthouse.html
Mr Roubini, a senior economic adviser to Bill Clinton, reportedly bought the loft apartment in 2010 for $5.5 million (£3.5m) and installed a hot tub, deck and party room with a bar on the roof.

Big Strategy Game played again at Yalta Today

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Big strategy game played again at Yalta today: should Ukraine sign the EU's AA and DCFTA or go for the Russian Eurasian custom union?"

"At Yalta high level West (the Clintons, high EU officials) facing Russian ones (Dvorkovich) to convince Ukraine to choose Europe over Russia"

"At Yalta where Stalin, Churchill and Roosevelt divided the post WWII world, high profile debate: should Ukraine go for the EU or Russia?"

"I am now headed to Yalta to attend the YES (Yalta European Strategy) Conference - YES " - in Twitter

The Fed caused a spike in long rates

"By too early taper talk starting in May the Fed caused a spike in long rates that weakened growth and forced it NOT to taper today." - in Twitter

The Tea Party Reps are now on a Jihad

Nouriel Roubini ‏: High risk now of a temporary government shutdown and an ugly fight on CR, debt ceiling and sequester as Tea Party Reps are on a jihad - in Twitter

The Fed is a Taper Tiger

"As The Economist put it the Fed is a Taper Tiger. But the consensus got wrong the "silence of the doves": they were fully data dependent "- in Twitter

Early Taper Talk Caused A Spike in Long Rates

"By too early taper talk starting in May the Fed caused a spike in long rates that weakened growth and forced it NOT to taper today." - in Twitter

Tapering : The Consensus Got It Wrong

"As The Economist put it the Fed is a Taper Tiger. But the consensus got wrong the "silence of the doves": they were fully data dependent." - in Twitter

The FED Should Not And May Not Taper Today

Nouriel Roubini : "Based on the weak macro data the Federal Reserve should not and may not taper today. If it does it will be taper-lite with stronger forward guidance and escape clause." - in Twitter

The Fed Cannot Taper Now

Nouriel Roubini : "New mortgages & refinancing applications are falling off the cliff as taper talk led to mortgage yields surge. How can the Fed taper now?" - in Twitter

World entering autumn of known unknowns

Global Times | 2013-9-17 21:53:01
By Nouriel Roubini 
During the height of the Iraq war, then-US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of "known unknowns" - foreseeable risks whose realization is uncertain. Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty.

In the US, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this autumn. For starters, it remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve will begin to "taper" its open-ended quantitative easing (QE) in September or later, how fast it will reduce its purchases of long-term assets, and when and how fast it will start to raise interest rates from their current zero level. There is also the question of who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. Finally, yet another partisan struggle over America's debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.

The first two sources of uncertainty have already affected markets. The rise in US long-term interest rates - from a low of 1.6 percent in May to recent peaks above 2.9 percent - has been driven by fears that the Fed will taper QE too soon and too fast, and by uncertainty surrounding Bernanke's successor.
Read More : http://www.globaltimes.cn/content/812189.shtml#.UjiOvz-rI7s

As Summers is out of Fed race it is again advantage Yellen

Nouriel Roubini : As Summers is out of Fed race it is again advantage Yellen. Other names, Blinder, Kohn, Ferguson, are unlikely. Main dark horse is Geithner - in Twitter

The only alternative to Yellen would be Geithner

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Right now it is a strong advantage for Yellen who is super qualified. The only alternative to her would be Geithner who doesn't want the job - in Twitter

5 years after Lehmans Collapse US Banks are even-bigger-to-fail

Nouriel Roubini ‏:
5 years after Lehman's collapse US banks are even-bigger-to-fail given consolidation: JPM taking over BS, BoFA taking CW & ML, WF taking Wac - in Twitter

Roubini ‏: Switzerland Still Most Competitive Economy

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Switzerland Still Most Competitive Economy as U.S., Germany Gain http://bloom.bg/1dEfqCi via @BloombergNews - in Twitter

Gold has fallen 21% this year!

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold Heads for Worst Weekly Loss Since June Before Fed Meets - Bloomberg http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/gold-heads-for-worst-weekly-loss-since-june-as-fed-seen-tapering.html?cmpid= … Gold has fallen 21% this year! - in Twitter

Goldman Sees Risk of Gold Below $1,000 on U.S. Economy , I made the same forecast 5 months ago

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Goldman Sees Risk of Gold Below $1,000 on U.S. Economy - Bloomberg http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-09-13/goldman-sees-risk-of-gold-below-1-000-as-u-s-economy-gains-1-.html?cmpid= … I made the same forecast 5 months ago - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Known Unknown in the US: Another ugly fight on the Debt Ceiling?

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Known Unknown in the US: Another ugly fight on the debt ceiling? Will the government shutdown on a CR showdown? Will sequester be replaced?"
"Known Unknown in the US: when will Fed start taper & how fast? Who will be the next Fed chair? When will the Fed exit 0% rates & how fast?" - in Twitter

3 Sources Of Policy Uncertainty Will Come To A Head This Autumn

Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty. "In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this autumn. For starters, it remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve will begin to “taper” its open-ended quantitative easing (QE) in September or later, how fast it will reduce its purchases of long-term assets, and when and how fast it will start to raise interest rates from their current zero level. There is also the question of who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. Finally, yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.

The first two sources of uncertainty have already affected markets. The rise in US long-term interest rates - from a low of 1.6 percent in May to recent peaks above 2.9 percent - has been driven by market fears that the Fed will taper QE too soon and too fast, and by the uncertainty surrounding Bernanke’s successor.

So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight. They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown. But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become. With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out." - in Project Syndicate

Roubini: The DJIA is Useless as an index of the US Stock Market

Nouriel Roubini: The DJIA is useless as an index of the US stock market as "losers" are dropped and "winners" are added on a regular basis - in Twitter

Roubini Expects Recovery to be 'at best weak'

Roubini's Reasons for caution : Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, expects recovery in the west to be 'at best weak'. He talks to Sarah Gordon, Europe business editor, about the risks he sees in the US and eurozone as well as vulnerability in emerging markets

Sign of Labor Market Weakness

"Fall in unemployment rate is driven by fall in labor force participation rate, sign of labor market weakness with more discouraged workers." - in Twitter

Roubini ‏: US Growth is weak Capex weak, Housing weaker

Nouriel Roubini ‏: US growth is weak <2%: capex weak, housing weaker,consumption flat in July, net exports weak, fiscal drag. So most components of demand weak - in Twitter

Bond Yields Mispriced

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Tapering of September Tapering. The Fed should not start tapering given mediocre GDP growth and labor market. Bond yields mispriced - in twitter

Roubini : Employment Report weak; implies no Taper in Sept

Nouriel Roubini : Employment report weak; it implies no taper in Sept or a symbolic taper with a dovish FOMC statement to prevent further rise in long rates - in Twitter

Roubini ‏: Fall in Unemployment Rate is driven by fall in labor force participation rate

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Fall in unemployment rate is driven by fall in labor force participation rate, sign of labor market weakness with more discouraged workers - in twitter

Roubini ‏: The Fed should not start tapering given mediocre GDP growth and labor Market

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Tapering of September Tapering. The Fed should not start tapering given mediocre GDP growth and labor market. Bond yields mispriced - in twitter

Nouriel Roubini ‏: No case for Taper

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Q2 growth is 1.9% ex inv. Q3 weaker. UNEMP rate falling only coz of lab force part rate, most components of demand lower. No case for taper - in twitter

The BRICS were overhyped for too long

These economies – the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, and South Africa) and others – were overhyped for too long. Favorable external conditions – the effect of China’s strong growth on higher commodity prices and easy money from yield-hungry advanced-economy investors – led to a partly artificial boom. Now that the party is over, the hangover is setting in.

This is especially true in India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, and Indonesia, all of which suffer from multiple macroeconomic and policy weaknesses – large current-account deficits, wide fiscal deficits, slowing growth, and above-target inflation – as well as growing social protest and political uncertainty ahead of elections in the next 12-18 months. There are no easy choices: defending the currency by hiking interest rates would kill growth and harm banks and corporate firms; loosening monetary policy to boost growth might push their currencies into free-fall, causing a spike in inflation and jeopardizing their ability to attract capital to finance their external deficits. - in project syndicate

Stock Market Rally, Asset Bubbles & Crash

“For the next year or so, as long as the economy grows 1.5-2 percent, and you have easy money, this market can go higher. Growth is slow. Earnings growth is also slowing down. Top line and bottom line are not as good as they used to be, but margins are high. They could correct, somehow, over time. This might lead to a generalized credit and equity and asset bubble in the next year or two, followed by a crash.”

Emerging Market Rout: There`s More To Come

"I do not think we are finished with the rout in any of the emerging market asset classes, maybe we are more than midway but there is more to come. After all, what we know about the global environment is that the West is showing more signs of recovery. That points to tapering from the Fed.

Roubini ‏: Great Minds speak about ideas; little minds speak about other people

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Great minds speak about ideas; little minds speak about other people

Investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US National Politics has become

"So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight," said Nouriel Roubini. "They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown." "But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become," he warned. "With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out." - in project syndicate

Roubini’s Sexy Tub Doomed

“Dr. Doom” economist Nouriel Roubini has been forced to remove his giant hot tub — famed for being packed with hot young models at his wild parties — from the roof of his Manhattan penthouse by the city.

Roubini, dubbed Dr. Doom for predicting the financial crisis, ran afoul of the Department of Buildings after he did not get approval for the tub, large enough to hold 10, and the wooden roof deck he had built at his East First Street bachelor pad for his boisterous bacchanals.

Now Roubini has been slapped with a violation and was ordered to remove the Jacuzzi, the deck and a party room he built, complete with a bar and bathroom, on the roof of his party penthouse.
read more : http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/roubini_sexy_tub_doomed_YAdrTyZin7MmLs8fJGhgXM >>>>>

ROUBINI: Investors Are Underestimating The Republican Jihad Against Spending

Nouriel Roubini : ... yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.

...So far, investors have been complacent about the risks posed by the looming budget fight. They believe that – as in the past – the fiscal showdown will end with a midnight compromise that avoids both default and a government shutdown. But investors seem to underestimate how dysfunctional US national politics has become. With a majority of the Republican Party on a jihad against government spending, fiscal explosions this autumn cannot be ruled out. - in ProjectSyndicate

Autumn’s Known Unknowns by Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – During the height of the Iraq war, then-US Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld spoke of “known unknowns” – foreseeable risks whose realization is uncertain. Today, the global economy is facing many known unknowns, most of which stem from policy uncertainty.
In the United States, three sources of policy uncertainty will come to a head this autumn. For starters, it remains unclear whether the Federal Reserve will begin to “taper” its open-ended quantitative easing (QE) in September or later, how fast it will reduce its purchases of long-term assets, and when and how fast it will start to raise interest rates from their current zero level. There is also the question of who will succeed Ben Bernanke as Fed Chairman. Finally, yet another partisan struggle over America’s debt ceiling could increase the risk of a government shutdown if the Republican-controlled House of Representatives and President Barack Obama and his Democratic allies cannot agree on a budget.

The first two sources of uncertainty have already affected markets. The rise in US long-term interest rates – from a low of 1.6% in May to recent peaks above 2.9% – has been driven by market fears that the Fed will taper QE too soon and too fast, and by the uncertainty surrounding Bernanke’s successor.

 http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-main-risks-to-the-global-economy-in-the-coming-months-by-nouriel-roubini

The West is showing more signs of Recovery

"I do not think we are finished with the rout in any of the emerging market asset classes, maybe we are more than midway but there is more to come. After all, what we know about the global environment is that the West is showing more signs of recovery. That points to tapering from the Fed.

We do not know exactly when that tapering is going to come. We do not know how much tapering is going to be. We do not know yet when the tapering will be followed by stop in the expansion of the Fed’s base money, more do we know when and by how much the Fed will tighten.

There are lots of stages in the shift in the US and therefore the global monetary and financial conditions environment that have yet to take place that would stretch out for a couple of years and it is that uncertainty and the threat of the coming reduction in the easing of monetary conditions that precipitated all this and on top of that now we have the Syrian situation becoming more escalated.

So, countries like India which are capital thirsty are still going to be in the forefront of this risk reduction episode across global markets." - in CNBC TV18

Roubini : Crisis in Italy goes beyond Berlusconi's Problems

Nouriel Roubini warned that instability in Italy over the future of Silvio Berlusconi could trigger early elections next year and weigh on the country’s standing on financial markets from this week.
“Our most probable scenario is elections in early 2014 but we do not exclude even sooner than that. The markets are reasoning in a similar way,” Roubini said in an interview with La Repubblica daily.