Roubini : Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back to Recession

Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics, discusses how Russia and Ukraine could affect the European recovery, market preparedness for a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy and why he sees a less dovish Federal Reserve in the near future from the 2014 Milken Global Conference on Bloomberg Television's "Market Makers."




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Ukraine War could Continue & Last for a while

Roubini: Suppose that Russia at this point decides to effectively either to destabilize, invade the eastern province of Ukraine. Two things will happen. The stance (ph) of the West will have to become more Russia and Russia could have (inaudible) going as far as limiting the supply of gas not just to Ukraine but also to Western Europe. Secondly, the NATO, even if they’re not going to have a military intervention, they’ll have certainty provide some military support to the government in Kiev. And that means that this war could escalate for quite a while. And therefore from a financial market point of view, there may be contagion deriving two (ph) advanced economy’s financial market, especially in the eurozone.

Schatzker: But could it really escalate for quite a while? Because we know that if Putin wants to exercise force in a big way, he can. And there’s really nobody capable of responding to it other than the United States.

Roubini: Well, the situation is such that even if he wanted to use force there (inaudible) first of all. Secondly, he’s not going to invade all of Ukraine. And you don’t know for how long a military conflict of this sort is going to continue, especially if the US and Europe were then to support militarily the government in Kiev. This war could continue and last for a while. So I’m saying this is not my baseline, but there is certainly downside risk that that will happen. But even a baseline (inaudible) remains lingering for a while, at some point investor may become worried about it. 
- in www.businessinsider.com



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina, and Venezuela will remain fragile in 2014

Still, some emerging markets – namely, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina, and Venezuela – will remain fragile in 2014, owing to large external and fiscal deficits, slowing growth, below-target inflation, and election-related political tensions. Some of these countries – for example, Indonesia – have recently undertaken more policy adjustment and will be subject to lower risks, though their growth and asset markets remain vulnerable to policy and political uncertainties and potential external shocks. - in www.project-syndicate.org



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The civil unrest in Ukraine may exacerbate the already significant Forex and Debt Risks

The civil unrest in Ukraine triggered by the government's last-minute U-turn on EU integration and movement towards Russia may exacerbate the country's already significant forex and debt risks
"Ukraine's large twin deficits and short-term external debt, inflexible currency and low forex reserves (2.2 months of imports and a third of short-term external debt) make it one of the most vulnerable emerging markets to a currency crisis. This risk has now been exacerbated by the civil unrest triggered by the government’s last-minute U-turn away from the EU integration and towards Russia. Devaluation has so far been avoided mainly due to: (1) positive sentiment of Ukrainian retail depositors, used to depreciation pressure; (2) high costs of hedging for corporates and (3) capital and currency controls. A reversal in sentiment, however, could increase the demand for cash forex and trigger disorderly devaluation in a matter of days," Evghenia Sleptsova, RGE Senior Analyst for Russia and CIS, Country Insights, told Interfax-Ukraine. - via http://en.interfax.com.ua
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Urges Ukraine to Sign EU Accord Over Russian Deal

“If you join the EU, it means harmonization of regulation,” Roubini said, adding that the trade accord could boost Ukraine’s trade with “any part of the world.” - in Bloomberg