Economic Reforms in China

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Chinese senior officials will present their plans for economic reforms next week at the Third Plenum of the CC of the CCP- in Twitter

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: China has a plan for Comprehensive Reforms

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Both President Xi & Premier Li confirmed to us that China has a plan for "comprehensive reforms". Details to be unveiled at the Third Plenum - in twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Central Bank Policymakers Are Damned if They Do, Damned if They Don't

"If policymakers go slow on raising rates to encourage faster economic recovery, they risk causing the mother of all asset bubbles, eventually leading to a bust, another massive financial crisis and a rapid slide into recession,"

"But if they try to prick bubbles early on with higher interest rates, they will crash bond markets and kill the recovery, causing much economic and financial damage." - in Project Syndicate.

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Near-Zero Policy Rates Encourage “Carry Trades”

As a result, all of this excess liquidity is flowing to the financial sector rather than the real economy. Near-zero policy rates encourage “carry trades” – debt-financed investment in higher-yielding risky assets such as longer-term government and private bonds, equities, commodities and currencies of countries with high interest rates. The result has been frothy financial markets that could eventually turn bubbly.

Indeed, the US stock market and many others have rebounded more than 100% since the lows of 2009; issuance of high-yield “junk bonds” is back to its 2007 level; and interest rates on such bonds are falling. Moreover, low interest rates are leading to high and rising home prices – possibly real-estate bubbles – in advanced economies and emerging markets alike, including Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Germany, France, Hong Kong, Singapore, Brazil, China, Australia, New Zealand, and Canada. - in Project Syndicate



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Bubbles in the Broth By Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – As below-trend GDP growth and high unemployment continue to afflict most advanced economies, their central banks have resorted to increasingly unconventional monetary policy. An alphabet soup of measures has been served up: ZIRP (zero-interest-rate policy); QE (quantitative easing, or purchases of government bonds to reduce long-term rates when short-term policy rates are zero); CE (credit easing, or purchases of private assets aimed at lowering the private sector’s cost of capital); and FG (forward guidance, or the commitment to maintain QE or ZIRP until, say, the unemployment rate reaches a certain target). Some have gone as far as proposing NIPR (negative-interest-rate policy).

And yet, through it all, growth rates have remained stubbornly low and unemployment rates unacceptably high, partly because the increase in money supply following QE has not led to credit creation to finance private consumption or investment. Instead, banks have hoarded the increase in the monetary base in the form of idle excess reserves. There is a credit crunch, as banks with insufficient capital do not want to lend to risky borrowers, while slow growth and high levels of household debt have also depressed credit demand.

As a result, all of this excess liquidity is flowing to the financial sector rather than the real economy. Near-zero policy rates encourage “carry trades” – debt-financed investment in higher-yielding risky assets such as longer-term government and private bonds, equities, commodities and currencies of countries with high interest rates. The result has been frothy financial markets that could eventually turn bubbly.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/on-the-ugly-policy-tradeoff-facing-advanced-country-central-bankers-by-nouriel-roubini#QiTrPvc4Dfoj477s.99



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

To Avoid Revolution, Workers’ Rights needed to be protected

Even before the Great Depression, Europe’s enlightened “bourgeois” classes recognized that, to avoid revolution, workers’ rights needed to be protected, wage and labor conditions improved, and a welfare state created to redistribute wealth and finance public goods – education, health care, and a social safety net. The push towards a modern welfare state accelerated after the Great Depression, when the state took on the responsibility for macroeconomic stabilization – a role that required the maintenance of a large middle class by widening the provision of public goods through progressive taxation of incomes and wealth and fostering economic opportunity for all.
- in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The laissez-faire Anglo-Saxon Model has also now failed miserably

Some of the lessons about the need for prudential regulation of the financial system were lost in the Reagan-Thatcher era, when the appetite for massive deregulation was created in part by the flaws in Europe’s social-welfare model. Those flaws were reflected in yawning fiscal deficits, regulatory overkill, and a lack of economic dynamism that led to sclerotic growth then and the eurozone’s sovereign-debt crisis now.

But the laissez-faire Anglo-Saxon model has also now failed miserably. To stabilize market-oriented economies requires a return to the right balance between markets and provision of public goods. That means moving away from both the Anglo-Saxon model of unregulated markets and the continental European model of deficit-driven welfare states. Even an alternative “Asian” growth model – if there really is one – has not prevented a rise in inequality in China, India, and elsewhere.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-instability-of-inequality#juCFBDsebYgHlIi6.99

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Free Markets don’t generate enough final demand

The result is that free markets don’t generate enough final demand. In the US, for example, slashing labor costs has sharply reduced the share of labor income in GDP. With credit exhausted, the effects on aggregate demand of decades of redistribution of income and wealth – from labor to capital, from wages to profits, from poor to rich, and from households to corporate firms – have become severe, owing to the lower marginal propensity of firms/capital owners/rich households to spend.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-instability-of-inequality#EMpWF46kppBF3r67.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Karl Marx oversold socialism, but he was right

The problem is not new. Karl Marx oversold socialism, but he was right in claiming that globalization, unfettered financial capitalism, and redistribution of income and wealth from labor to capital could lead capitalism to self-destruct. As he argued, unregulated capitalism can lead to regular bouts of over-capacity, under-consumption, and the recurrence of destructive financial crises, fueled by credit bubbles and asset-price booms and busts.
 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-instability-of-inequality#Xf1IbaBe0EHb7Vdj.99


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Instability of Inequality by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

 The Instability of Inequality by Nouriel Roubini - Project Syndicate

    Any economic model that doesn’t properly address inequality will eventually face a crisis of legitimacy, as today's global protests are now demonstrating. Unless the relative economic roles of the market and the state are rebalanced, the protests of 2011 will become more severe, eventually harming long-term economic growth and welfare.

Read more at www.project-syndicate.org
 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Forget the G20, We Live in a G Zero World

There is no New World Order Human race understands only one order, order of master and slave order of those who give orders and those who obey.
Globalization is dictatorship of MIGHTY too of their control is Financial Capital



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

EXCLUSIVE Video: Nouriel Roubini: How Sequestration will impact US Growth

 Nouriel Roubini discusses how the latest round of sequestration will impact US growth over the next year and beyond.

Innovation and strategy for funds and investors- presentations and video content from our events.

Middle East Investment Summit: the Middle East's ultimate investor and fund event.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Call me Dr. Realist

“I prefer to be called Dr. Realist. I’m not either a pessimist or an optimist. It’s not as if I’m a perma-bear. Right now there is a global economic recovery, so I think you have to be a realist about what can go right, and what can go wrong.”

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini: Chile will become the first developed country in South America

Nouriel Roubini The University of New York economist visits South America and Chile and gives his analyzes and projections on the global economy and Economic Agenda.(The Interview is unfortunately in Spanish )

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazilian Economy is in a Growth funk as policy uncertainty wide

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Leaving now Brazilia for Rio de Janeiro. Useful policy & business meetings in Brazil. Economy is in a growth funk as policy uncertainty wide- in Twitter




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil was too hyped 2 years ago . Today it is nearly Bankrupt

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Riots in Rio: I arrived to Rio where the city was under siege as demonstrators protested the auction of the offshore pre-salt oil fields
2 yrs ago at the Milken Conference Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt  - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Investing Tips from Nouriel Roubini

Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Tom Keene looks at what's behind the increasing optimism from NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini. Keene speaks on Bloomberg Television's "In The Loop." (Source: Bloomberg)





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

This is How Roubini Would Invest $1,000 Right Now

 Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) --- Economist Nouriel Roubini, cofounder of Roubini Global Ecomonics, explains how he would invest $1,000 in the current climate, what he thinks of his "Dr. Doom" nickname, and what he saw before he forecast the 2008 economic downturn. (Source: Bloomberg)







Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini would Invest in UK and Japanese Equities

Roubini would invest in UK and Japanese equities , The co-founder of Roubini Global Ecomonics explains how he would invest $1,000 in the current climate, what he thinks of his ‘Dr. Doom’ nickname, and what he saw before he forecast the 2008 economic downturn.




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Time to Close the Financial Supermarkets

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Gold Slumping to 4 Year Low for Best Forecasters

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Gold Slumping to Four-Year Low for Best Forecasters: Commodities - Bloomberg http://mobile.bloomberg.com/news/2013-10-16/gold-slumping-to-four-year-low-for-best-forecasters-commodities.html?cmpid= …- in a recent tweet  



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The FED would eventually scale back its massive QE Program slowly pushing up Interest Rates

The Federal Reserve would eventually scale back its massive quantitative easing program "very gradually"—slowly pushing up interest rates. - in CNBC
 
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

EU Monetary Union : Disintegration Risk Has Diminished Significantly

 "A little more than a year ago, in the summer of 2012, the eurozone, faced with growing fears of a Greek exit and unsustainably high borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Today, the risk that the monetary union could disintegrate has diminished significantly – but the factors that led to it remain largely unaddressed." - in The Guardian



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

There is Uncertainty that is already affecting Business, Investor and Consumer Confidence

 “There is uncertainty that is already affecting business, investor and consumer confidence, leading to less retail sales, less capital spending by the corporate sector,” Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said on Bloomberg Radio’s


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Economic Impact in Terms of a Fiscal Drag

The economic impact in terms of a fiscal drag is the difference between U.S. economic growth and tipping into a downturn. - in CNBC

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: We will have a repeat of the Shutdown & Debt Ceiling fight

Nouriel Roubini ‏: We will have a repeat of the shutdown & debt ceiling fight: US debt deal "Analysts relieved rather than celebrating" http://on.ft.com/15KLf7Y - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini Reasons for Caution

Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, expects recovery in the west to be 'at best weak'. He talks to Sarah Gordon, Europe business editor

America , back into Recession

"If there is not agreement, the resulting financial damage could even tip us into a recession," "The economic impact in terms of a fiscal drag is the difference" between U.S. economic growth and tipping into a downturn - in a recent interview with CNBC , click here to watch the full interview >>>>>>

Roubini : The Creditors of the US Are Worried

“The creditors of the United States are worried,” Roubini said. “They have been telling the United States to get their act together on their fiscal issues.” - in a recent interview with Bloomberg Radio

Fiscal Drag : The Economic Impact

The Economic Impact in Terms of a Fiscal Drag

The Economic impact in terms of a fiscal drag is the difference between U.S. economic growth and tipping into a downturn.  - in CNBC

Roubini : No Government Agreement Means Recession in America

"If there is not agreement, the resulting financial damage could even tip us into a recession," especially because the economy is growing at a relatively paltry rate of 1.5 to 2 percent,"The economic impact in terms of a fiscal drag is the difference" between U.S. economic growth and tipping into a downturn, Roubini told CNBC today

Roubini to Bloomberg : The Chance of a U.S. Recession grows every day

“There is uncertainty that is already affecting business, investor and consumer confidence, leading to less retail sales, less capital spending by the corporate sector,” “If we were to reach the debt limit and have a technical default on Treasuries and if the government shutdown were to go on for weeks to come, then there will be a significant risk of a recession.” Roubini said on Bloomberg Radio’s today

The Italian Government is on the Verge of Collapsing

....Moreover, the ECB is unwilling to be creative in pursuing policies—like those embraced by the Bank of England—that would ameliorate the credit crunch. Unlike the US Federal Reserve and the Bank of Japan, it is not engaging in quantitative easing; and its “forward guidance” that it will keep interest rates low is not very credible. On the contrary, interest rates remain too high and the euro too strong to jump-start faster economic growth in the euro zone.

In the meantime, austerity fatigue is rising in the eurozone periphery. The Italian government is on the verge of collapsing; the Greek government is under intense strain as it seeks further budget cuts; and the Portuguese and Spanish governments are having a hard time achieving even the looser fiscal targets set by their creditors, while political pressures mount.

And bailout fatigue is emerging in the euro zone core. In Germany, the next coalition government looks set to include the Social Democrats, who are pushing for a bail-in of the banks’ private creditors, which would only exacerbate balkanization of the euro zone’s banking system; and populist parties throughout the core are pushing against bailouts for banks and governments alike.....- in livemint

Without Market Discipline there’s no pressure to do Anything

“Without market discipline,” said Nouriel Roubini , chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC, “there’s no pressure to do anything because you can continue to finance yourself cheaply.”

The Decade-long Commodities Bull Market is Ending

Economist Nouriel Roubini says weaker growth in China and a slow recovery in advanced economies will pressure global commodities prices, ending their decade-long bull market.

Euro Monetary Union: Disintegration Risk Has Diminished Significantly

"A little more than a year ago, in the summer of 2012, the eurozone, faced with growing fears of a Greek exit and unsustainably high borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, appeared to be on the brink of collapse. Today, the risk that the monetary union could disintegrate has diminished significantly – but the factors that led to it remain largely unaddressed." - in The Guardian Related ETFs:  iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares Germany ETF (EWG)

Political Risks Rise In West Countries

"Political risks rise in West countries: U.S. goverment shutdown risk; Italian goverment collapse risk; uncertainty on German government; Greece & Portugal risks." - in Twitter
Related ETFs: Financial Select Sector SPDR (ETF) (XLF), SPDR SP 500 ETF (NYSE:SPY), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares Germany ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Higher Interest Rates negative for Bonds & Commodities Prices , Time to Buy Stocks

“You probably want to be underweight in bonds, and overweight in equities, mainly in the U.S.,” “Higher interest rates will be a negative for commodities prices.” Speaking at Index Universe’s Inside Commodities conference today, the New York University economics Roubini told attendees.

Eurozone Fundamental Problems Remain Unresolved

"Beneath the surface calm of lower spreads and lower tail risks, the eurozone's fundamental problems remain unresolved. For starters, potential growth is still too low in most of the periphery, given ageing populations and low productivity growth, while actual growth – even once the periphery exits the recession, in 2014 – will remain below 1% for the next few years, implying that unemployment rates will remain very high.
Meanwhile, levels of private and public debt, domestic and foreign, are still too high, and continue to rise as a share of GDP, owing to slow or negative output growth. This means that the issue of medium-term sustainability remains unresolved.

At the same time, the loss of competitiveness has been only partly reversed, with most of the improvement in external balances being cyclical rather than structural. The severe recession in the periphery has caused imports there to collapse, but lower unit labour costs have boosted exports insufficiently. The euro is still too strong, severely limiting the improvement in competitiveness that is needed to boost net exports in the face of weak domestic demand." - in The Guardian

Related ETFs: iShares Germany ETF (EWG), iShares MSCI Italy Index ETF (EWI), iShares MSCI Spain Index ETF (EWP)

Eurozone Crisis: A Temporary Respite Between Storms?

"The calm that has prevailed in eurozone financial markets for most of the past year would turn out to be only a temporary respite between storms." - in Money News

If A Government Shutdown Cannot Lift Gold, What Else Will?

If a government shutdown cannot lift gold, what else will? - in Twitter

Related stocks and ETFs: SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD), Newmont Mining (NEM), Barrick Gold (ABX), Goldcorp (GG), Market Vectors Gold Miners ETF (GDX)

A Bailout fatigue is Emerging in The Eurozone Core

....And bailout fatigue is emerging in the eurozone core. In Germany, the next coalition government looks set to include the Social Democrats, who are pushing for a bail-in of the banks’ private creditors, which would only exacerbate balkanization of the eurozone’s banking system; and populist parties throughout the core are pushing against bailouts for banks and governments alike.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/the-eurozone-s-unaddressed-problems-by-nouriel-roubini#hzlr5BAEWd6tckAM.99

There are a number of factors as to why The Commodity Super Cycle is probably over

ET Now: Do you think the commodity super cycle is over?

Nouriel Roubini : There are a number of factors as to why the commodity super cycle is probably over. First of all, China is slowing down. Their growth rate might be as low as 6% or 7%. Additionally, we have a slow recovery in advanced economies and since there the monetary policy is going to be tightened, however, gradual. The Fed eventually is going to start tapering, would eventually go away from zero policy rates and that increase in short and long rates is going to soften commodity prices as well. The dollar is going to strengthen over time because economic growth in the US is going to outperform the one in other advanced economies. The Fed is going to exit faster than other central banks.

Demand for Oil, Energy, Water and Food is going to increase in The Emerging Markets

ET Now: What about the argument that there is a growing population in the emerging markets and that will support grain prices because of the need to feed more mouths?


Nouriel Roubini : Certainly, demand for oil, energy, water and food is going to increase in the emerging markets, thanks to a growing population and increasing per capita income. Therefore, those commodities that are related more to the consumption growth in China and emerging market, in relative terms, might be the better placed - like oil - as transportation needs would sustain demand. However, industrial metals like copper, in less resource-intensive emerging markets, are going to do much worse in relative terms.

The US is going to Grow Faster than other Advanced Economies

ET Now: You are bullish on the US compared to some other countries?

Nouriel Roubini : In relative terms, the US is going to grow faster than other advanced economies and since slowly bond yields are going to go higher, you may want to be gradually underweight on bonds. There will be some gradual rotation towards equities. Since equity valuations are still high, but by next year the US economic growth might be closer to potential.

The Eurozone Recession is Over

Moreover, the Eurozone recession is over (though five periphery economies continue to shrink, and recovery remains very fragile). Some structural reform has been implemented and a lot of fiscal adjustment has occurred. Internal devaluation (a fall in unit labour costs to restore competitiveness) has occurred to some extent – in Spain, Portugal, Greece, and Ireland, but not in Italy or France – improving external balances. And, even if such adjustment is not occurring as fast as Germany and other core eurozone countries would like, they remain willing to provide financing, and governments committed to adjustment are still in power.

But beneath the surface calm of lower spreads and lower tail risks, the eurozone's fundamental problems remain unresolved. For starters, potential growth is still too low in most of the periphery, given ageing populations and low productivity growth, while actual growth – even once the periphery exits the recession, in 2014 – will remain below 1% for the next few years, implying that unemployment rates will remain very high.

Meanwhile, levels of private and public debt, domestic and foreign, are still too high, and continue to rise as a share of GDP, owing to slow or negative output growth. This means that the issue of medium-term sustainability remains unresolved.  - in The Guardian