Brazil Was Too Hyped

 2 years ago at the Milken Conference, Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt. - in twitter

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil can avoid The Crisis

"Brazil isn't destined to have a crisis, it's possible to avoid it," Roubini said to Folha "If they make the necessary adjustments, there won't be any further downgrading and confidence in fiscal policy will improve. That will make people more comfortable about spending. The currency has devalued to the point of becoming more competitive, and exports should increase, though not by much, because of the global situation. Midway through next year, inflation should fall, because there will no longer be the effects of the increase of price controls and the recession will make the increase in salaries lower. The Central Bank will thus be able to cut interest rates and that will re-establish some growth. Brazilian GDP is likely to shrink 3% this year, perhaps as much as 4%. In 2016, if adjustments are made, I think there will be recession in the first six months, but the economy will bottom out midway through the year and then begin to recover. Brazil is not destined to have a crisis. There is a way out, although it is difficult and requires political courage from whoever is in power. For things to stabilize, fiscal adjustment is necessary, there's no other way," he added.

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil on the Brink of a Precipice Roubini Warns

Nouriel Roubini, one of the few economists who predicted the financial crisis of 2008, has warned, "Brazil is on the brink of a precipice."

Roubini argues that without fiscal adjustment, the country will lose its investment grade rating with other credit rating agencies (as has already happened with Standard and Poor's); borrowing costs will skyrocket; the real will go into freefall and the economy will shrink further still.

But Dr. Apocalypse, as the economist is known for his gloomy predictions, is not entirely pessimistic about Brazil's future. "Brazil isn't destined to have a crisis, it's possible to avoid it," he says. However, he says that for this to occur the country must run a surplus of at least 0.7% in 2016.

He estimates that Brazilian GDP will shrink by around 3% this year and remain stagnant or just slightly positive in 2016, as long as there is adjustment. According to the Focus report, the market expects recession of 2.85% in 2015 and 1% in 2016.

read more @ http://www1.folha.uol.com.br/internacional/en/business/2015/10/1693317-brazil-on-the-brink-of-a-precipice-says-roubini-but-crisis-may-be-averted.shtml

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil should have been downgraded below investment grade last year

 Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/financial-early-warning-system-by-nouriel-roubini-2015-08#Bhlurxy2j6VkCPhD.99

Brazil should have been downgraded below investment grade last year, as the economy struggled with a widening fiscal deficit, a growing economy-wide debt burden, and a weak and worsening business environment. The corruption scandal at energy giant Petrobras is finally causing ratings agencies to reassess Brazil, but the move comes too late, and their downgrades probably will not be sufficient to reflect the true risk. Other emerging markets also look fragile and at risk of an eventual downgrade.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil Economy Outlook

Had policy/ business meetings in Sao Paulo. Who will be next Brazilian Finance Minister: Tombini, Barbosa, Meirelles, Levy, Trabuco, etc? - in Twitter




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil Was Too Hyped

Two years ago at the Milken Conference, Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt. - Via tweet



Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil Was Too Hyped

Two years ago at the Milken Conference, Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt. - Via tweet



Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil, Russia, and South Africa are over-hyped BRICS countries

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the United States this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) GDP rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth. - in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina, and Venezuela will remain fragile in 2014

Still, some emerging markets – namely, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa, Hungary, Ukraine, Argentina, and Venezuela – will remain fragile in 2014, owing to large external and fiscal deficits, slowing growth, below-target inflation, and election-related political tensions. Some of these countries – for example, Indonesia – have recently undertaken more policy adjustment and will be subject to lower risks, though their growth and asset markets remain vulnerable to policy and political uncertainties and potential external shocks. - in www.project-syndicate.org



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil: Signs Of An Economic Slowdown

Interesting times in Brazil as there are signs of an economic slowdown as global tail risks loom.

(Source: Roubini`s Official Twitter)

Related, iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ)

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Brazil Was Too Hyped

2 years ago at the Milken Conference, Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt. - in a recent tweet

Related trading instruments: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index (ETF) (NYSE:EWZ), SPDR Gold Trust (ETF) (GLD)

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazilian Economy is in a Growth funk as policy uncertainty wide

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Leaving now Brazilia for Rio de Janeiro. Useful policy & business meetings in Brazil. Economy is in a growth funk as policy uncertainty wide- in Twitter




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Brazil was too hyped 2 years ago . Today it is nearly Bankrupt

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Riots in Rio: I arrived to Rio where the city was under siege as demonstrators protested the auction of the offshore pre-salt oil fields
2 yrs ago at the Milken Conference Eike Batista criticized me in our panel for saying that Brazil was too hyped. Today he is nearly bankrupt  - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Low Growth: Brazil, Russia, China & South Africa

"Brazil's GDP grew by only 1% last year, and may not grow by more than 2% this year, with its potential growth barely above 3%. Russia's economy may grow by barely 2% this year, with potential growth also at around 3%, despite oil prices being around $100 a barrel. India had a couple of years of strong growth recently (11.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011) but slowed to 4% in 2012. China's economy grew by 10% a year for the last three decades, but slowed to 7.8% last year and risks a hard landing. And South Africa grew by only 2.5% last year and may not grow faster than 2% this year." - an excerpt from the article Is the emerging market boom over?

Brazil, India, Russia Slowing Down too

Nouriel Roubini :....Meanwhile, Brazil, India, Russia, and other emerging economies are playing the same game. Many have not adjusted as advanced economies’ weakness reduces the room for export-led growth; and many delayed structural reforms needed to boost private sector development and productivity growth, while embracing a model of state capitalism that will soon reveal its limits. So the recent slowdown of growth in emerging markets is not just cyclical, owing to weak growth or outright recession in advanced economies; it is also structural. - excerpt from project syndicate

Roubini : signs of an Economic slowdown in Brazil

Nouriel Roubini "I am in Rio for policy & business meetings. Interesting times in Brazil as there are signs of an economic slowdown as global tail risks loom" via twitter

Roubini : China, India , Brazil are the only few bright spots

Roubini : I'm a realist. I can only see a few bright spots in some countries like China, India or Brazil. But the rest? The US economic recovery has been anemic, Japan looks comatose, and Europe is facing a double dip. The Continent is vulnerable to falling back into recession. Even before the Greek shock, the outlook was rather moderate, but now euro zone growth is closer to zero.
in www.spiegel.de