Economic Failure could fuel further nationalist, xenophobic tendencies – and even trigger military conflict

Even in the US, the economic insecurity of a vast white underclass that feels threatened by immigration and global trade can be seen in the rising influence of the extreme right and Tea Party factions of the Republican Party. These groups are characterized by economic nativism, anti-immigration and protectionist leanings, religious fanaticism, and geopolitical isolationism.

A variant of this dynamic can be seen in Russia and many parts of Eastern Europe and Central Asia, where the fall of the Berlin Wall did not usher in democracy, economic liberalization, and rapid output growth. Instead, nationalist and authoritarian regimes have been in power for most of the past quarter-century, pursuing state-capitalist growth models that ensure only mediocre economic performance. In this context, Russian President Vladimir Putin’s destabilization of Ukraine cannot be separated from his dream of leading a “Eurasian Union” – a thinly disguised effort to recreate the former Soviet Union.

In Asia, too, nationalism is resurgent. New leaders in China, Japan, South Korea, and now India are political nationalists in regions where territorial disputes remain serious and long-held historical grievances fester. These leaders – as well as those in Thailand, Malaysia, and Indonesia, who are moving in a similar nationalist direction – must address major structural-reform challenges if they are to revive falling economic growth and, in the case of emerging markets, avoid a middle-income trap. Economic failure could fuel further nationalist, xenophobic tendencies – and even trigger military conflict. - in project-syndicate.org


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : 10 questions the Senators failed to ask Janet Yellen at her confirmation hearing

 10 basic and key questions Senators were too naive to ask Yellen:

1. You wrote about optimal control (OC) ie allow inflation above target. Do you support OC?
2. You wrote a few times that inflation may have to go above target for a while to reduce labor slack. Do you support this optimal control?
3. Do you agree with Governor Stein that macro-pru will not be sufficient to control bubbles? Would you raise rates sooner to prick bubbles?
 4. While you say no bubble today what is the risk that slow QE exit & policy rate normalization (4 yrs) will cause bubbles down the line?
5 . If the current approach to too-big-to-fail will not work would you down the line support breaking up big banks to deal with TBTF?
6. What will be Fed losses of paying interest on excess reserves of $3 trillion+ when you will normalize policy rates to 4%? 120bn a year?
7. Fed criteria for taper is a cumulative improvement in labor mkt outlook. Aren't we there now given fall in Un Rate & 180K jobs per month?
8. After ZIRP, QE, CE, FG growth is still weak & mon pol ineffective? Wouldn't a better policy mix be more fiscal stimulus & less monetary?
9. What is risk of fiscal dominance as Fed is effectively monetizing public debt? Should mon pol be used to nudge congress to cut deficit?
 10. What is risk of debt dominance, ie Fed unable to raise rates fast enough as high public/household debt requires low debt service ratio?  - via twitter




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

U.S. Stock Market not in a Bubble Yet

In a Bloomberg interview, Roubini said central bank liquidity is not going to the economic recovery but into financial transactions “We are maybe not in bubble territory for the U.S. stock market, but if you look at housing around the world — Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, France, Germany, Israel, Brazil, Hong Kong, Singapore, China — we have frothiness if not outright bubbles in housing markets in many parts of the world,” he said. Also, the tech sector appears vulnerable with start-ups being overvalued based on forward revenue they haven’t even taken in yet. In addition, central bankers face a tough choice between killing off the recovery, or fueling growth at the risk of inflating the next financial crisis.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Economic Insecurity and the Rise of Nationalism by NOURIEL ROUBINI

Weak recovery has provided an opening for populist and protectionist parties to blame foreign trade and foreign workers for the prolonged malaise

In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, policymakers' success in preventing the Great Recession from turning into Great Depression II held in check demands for protectionist and inward-looking measures. But now the backlash against globalisation – and the freer movement of goods, services, capital, labour, and technology that came with it – has arrived.
This new nationalism takes different economic forms: trade barriers, asset protection, reaction against foreign direct investment, policies favouring domestic workers and firms, anti-immigration measures, state capitalism, and resource nationalism. In the political realm, populist, anti-globalisation, anti-immigration, and in some cases outright racist and antisemitic parties are on the rise.
These forces loath the alphabet soup of supranational governance institutions – the EU, the UN, the WTO, and the IMF, among others – that globalisation requires. Even the internet, the epitome of globalisation for the past two decades, is at risk of being balkanised as more authoritarian countries – including China, Iran, Turkey, and Russia – seek to restrict access to social media and crack down on free expression.

read more @ http://www.theguardian.com/business/economics-blog/2014/jun/02/economic-insecurity-nationalism-on-the-rise-globalisation-nouriel-roubini


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Africa : The surprises have been on the upside rather than on the downside

This was your first trip to Nigeria. What were your impressions?

I had low expectations because usually what you read in the US press about Nigeria is only bad news, violence, terrorism, lots of other bad stuff. I was actually positively surprised. You have a country that has one tenth of the power capacity of South Africa, one quarter or one fifth of the infrastructure of South Africa, and while South Africa is growing barely at 2%-2.5%, Nigeria is growing at around 7% or so.

Of course it’s an unfair comparison because South Africa is a middle-income country while Nigeria has a low per capita income, so usually low per capita income countries grow faster because there is a catch-up of growth. Nigeria has oil and gas and a lot of energy that helps its growth. Since they are doing so well with such little power and infrastructure, some people say that Nigeria could grow by 10% by making the right investment in infrastructure.

What was the highlight of your trip so far, other than the nightlife?

These are societies which are becoming urbanised. These are thriving urban environments where you have good restaurants, good clubs, music venues. You go to a club and hear the same kind of electronic dance music, top 40, that you hear in Ibiza.

And any surprises?

The surprises have been on the upside rather than on the downside. Of course there are tons of challenges in each of these countries but there’s an element of vibrancy that you see both in economies that are wealthier like South Africa or Nigeria but even in a place like Congo.

There is a long list of things that have to be improved in each one of these economies and you cannot take economic success in the future for granted.

I think sometimes there is a little bit of an excess of saying Africa is rising, everything is going well, but that depends on having good sound institutions, good policies, good leaders in the private and public sectors to make them work.

There’s always a risk of slippages and things turning wrong, so I would say one should not take the current success for granted, but overall the surprises have been on the positive. - via africanbusibnessmagazine





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Hungary Showing Signs of Economic Growth

The Hungarian government’s policies show signs of state capitalism in certain areas, renowned economist Nouriel Roubini told a conference in Budapest on Tuesday.
Roubini mentioned Hungary as an example of state capitalist tendencies in Central and Eastern Europe, where the role of the state increases to the detriment of market-oriented reforms.
On the sidelines of the conference, organised by the Hungarian Venture Capital Association, Roubini told reporters that Hungary had been able to reduce the vulnerability of its economy in a number of areas and that also showed signs of economic growth, but added that the government had a “mixed” approach to foreign owners and suggested that its commitment to foreign investment was questionable.
read more @ http://www.politics.hu/20140604/renowned-economist-sees-signs-of-state-capitalism-in-hungary




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini on Nigeria vs. South Africa

This was your first trip to Nigeria. What were your impressions?

Nouriel Roubini : I had low expectations because usually what you read in the US press about Nigeria is only bad news, violence, terrorism, lots of other bad stuff. I was actually positively surprised. You have a country that has one tenth of the power capacity of South Africa, one quarter or one fifth of the infrastructure of South Africa, and while South Africa is growing barely at 2%-2.5%, Nigeria is growing at around 7% or so.

Of course it’s an unfair comparison because South Africa is a middle-income country while Nigeria has a low per capita income, so usually low per capita income countries grow faster because there is a catch-up of growth. Nigeria has oil and gas and a lot of energy that helps its growth. Since they are doing so well with such little power and infrastructure, some people say that Nigeria could grow by 10% by making the right investment in infrastructure. - in africanbusinessmagazine



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Africa a Frontier Market has come as a positive suprise

African Business : Is Africa an emerging or a frontier market, and is this distinction important?

Roubini : Africa is frontier rather than emerging. I would make a difference between those economies that are emerging markets and those that are frontier and I would say in sub-Saharan Africa, other than maybe Nigeria and South Africa, which I would consider as being emerging, the others are more frontier economies by the standard of how people define different types of economies.

Does that mean they’re decoupled from the rest of the world?
There is partial decoupling – I would say it’s not full. The kind of pressure that you saw last year, and even recently in emerging markets, has affected to a smaller measure emerging markets or frontier economies in the region because they have less capital mobility, there is less portfolio investment – either in equity markets or bond markets by foreign investors – so there have been pressures but they’ve been modest.

The currency has fallen slightly in places like Nigeria but we didn’t see the kind of massive outflows that you see in some of the bigger emerging markets because it’s still more of a frontier economy scenario. The one country in which the financial flows should have been stronger is South Africa, where portfolio investments into financial current accounts are much larger and therefore outflows of bonds or equities has a bigger effect on currency, bond market, equity prices.

We have seen, in recent years, about a dozen countries in the region issue bonds in foreign currency. Therefore as investors move out, spreads can be pushed upward. However, even during the latest episodes of emerging market turmoil, spreads in sub-Saharan Africa have moved less than those of other emerging markets that are paradoxically deeper given they are in general more liquid markets.

Do you think countries like Nigeria and South Africa should be defending their currencies and propping them up?
Not necessarily. If there are currency pressures, this can be due either to global factors such as a slowdown in China, falling commodity prices, tapering and tightening in the US; or it could be due to poor economic policies that are more internal.
If the currency pressure is due to global shocks, then maybe it’s debatable how much you want to resist it, especially if you do have a current account deficit like South Africa.

But do you let the currency fall gradually – an orderly fall is part of the adjustment process – or risk letting the currency go into free-fall – which will be risky?
I would not use the reserves to prop up the currency. If you want really to slow down the rate of currency depreciation, probably tighter monetary policy is the more appropriate response rather than wasting precious reserves to try to prop it.
But in a country like South Africa where growth is already very low, excessive monetary tightening is probably undesirable.

To add to the problem, interest rates generally in Africa are already extremely high, which makes life very difficult for SMEs and those who want to invest. Yes, access to finance is an issue throughout the continent especially for SMEs. Larger corporates have access to international capital markets.

These high interest rates reflect higher inflation but they also reflect some risk and they reflect a not-very-well-developed banking system and capital market so the cost of financing tends to be high, especially for small and medium-sized enterprises throughout the region. - in African Business


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Populist Parties to take power in Europe If income & Job Growth do not pick up soon

If income and job growth do not pick up soon, populist parties may come closer to power at the national level in Europe, with anti-EU sentiments stalling the process of European economic and political integration. Worse, the eurozone may again be at risk: some countries (the United Kingdom) may exit the EU; others (the UK, Spain, and Belgium) eventually may break up.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-likens-the-rise-of-nationalism-today-to-that-of-authoritarian-regimes-during-the-great-depression#VDXsrcLhBMColD8J.99



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Great Backlash by Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – In the immediate aftermath of the 2008 global financial crisis, policymakers’ success in preventing the Great Recession from turning into Great Depression II held in check demands for protectionist and inward-looking measures. But now the backlash against globalization – and the freer movement of goods, services, capital, labor, and technology that came with it – has arrived.

This new nationalism takes different economic forms: trade barriers, asset protection, reaction against foreign direct investment, policies favoring domestic workers and firms, anti-immigration measures, state capitalism, and resource nationalism. In the political realm, populist, anti-globalization, anti-immigration, and in some cases outright racist and anti-Semitic parties are on the rise.
These forces loath the alphabet soup of supra-national governance institutions – the EU, the UN, the WTO, and the IMF, among others – that globalization requires. Even the Internet, the epitome of globalization for the past two decades, is at risk of being balkanized as more authoritarian countries – including China, Iran, Turkey, and Russia – seek to restrict access to social media and crack down on free expression.
The main causes of these trends are clear. Anemic economic recovery has provided an opening for populist parties, promoting protectionist policies, to blame foreign trade and foreign workers for the prolonged malaise. Add to this the rise in income and wealth inequality in most countries, and it is no wonder that the perception of a winner-take-all economy that benefits only elites and distorts the political system has become widespread. Nowadays, both advanced economies (like the United States, where unlimited financing of elected officials by financially powerful business interests is simply legalized corruption) and emerging markets (where oligarchs often dominate the economy and the political system) seem to be run for the few. Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-likens-the-rise-of-nationalism-today-to-that-of-authoritarian-regimes-during-the-great-depression#2Lweo7dIoof5vJg6.99






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Ukraine : The Cold War could become a Hot War

Schatzker: Yes. We’ve got to take the opportunity. Let’s go global. Nouriel, right now it would seem to most people like the situation that’s unfolding in Ukraine, especially as it concerns Russia, presents the single biggest risk, but maybe it isn’t. I want you to share with us your view of what’s happening there, how you think it’s going to unfold, and whether we’re missing something bigger.

Roubini: Certainly among the global tail risks, the one coming from Ukraine is the most important one. There is the beginning now of a new cold war between the West and Russia, and this cold war could actually become a hot war if it’s possible Russia were to effectively destabilize and invade the eastern provinces of Ukraine, in which case things would escalate. You could have another episode of global risk aversion. If this were to become a real war, (inaudible) even a situation in which the supply of gas to Europe may be cut off from Russia. The European economy is barely now recovering from a recession. That could tip back the eurozone into a recession.

Ruhle: From a risk management from a 1 to 10 scale, how concerned are you that things could get catastrophic there?

Roubini: Well today I would say the risk is around 7 and raising because the situation is (inaudible) one in which Russia seems to be really very aggressive in Ukraine. They want to try to take over Ukraine, and therefore an escalation is likely to occur.

Schatzker: Okay, but an escalation in what form? You talked about the possibility that this might become a hot war, which – which I take to mean the use of force on both sides.

Roubini: Yes. Yes. (Inaudible).

Schatzker: That assumes that NATO will act -

Roubini: Suppose that Russia at this point decides to effectively either to destabilize, invade the eastern province of Ukraine. Two things will happen. The stance (ph) of the West will have to become more Russia and Russia could have (inaudible) going as far as limiting the supply of gas not just to Ukraine but also to Western Europe. Secondly, the NATO, even if they’re not going to have a military intervention, they’ll have certainty provide some military support to the government in Kiev. And that means that this war could escalate for quite a while. And therefore from a financial market point of view, there may be contagion deriving two (ph) advanced economy’s financial market, especially in the eurozone.

Schatzker: But could it really escalate for quite a while? Because we know that if Putin wants to exercise force in a big way, he can. And there’s really nobody capable of responding to it other than the United States.

Roubini: Well, the situation is such that even if he wanted to use force there (inaudible) first of all. Secondly, he’s not going to invade all of Ukraine. And you don’t know for how long a military conflict of this sort is going to continue, especially if the US and Europe were then to support militarily the government in Kiev. This war could continue and last for a while. So I’m saying this is not my baseline, but there is certainly downside risk that that will happen. But even a baseline (inaudible) remains lingering for a while, at some point investor may become worried about it.

Ruhle: What does all this mean for the European economy?

Roubini: Well the eurozone right now is recovering. There’s been a severe recession. There’s the beginning of an economic recovery, but this is a recovery that’s fragile, it’s anemic, it’s uneven, especially in the periphery of the eurozone. I would say the last thing that the eurozone can afford and need right now is another shock coming from an increase in gas prices and or even a cut off of supply of gas coming from Russia to the Western European economies. That would tip the European economies back into a recession if that were to occur.

- in Bloomberg





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Russia & Ukraine could affect The European Recovery

Ruhle: What does all this mean for the European economy? 

 Roubini: Well the eurozone right now is recovering. There’s been a severe recession. There’s the beginning of an economic recovery, but this is a recovery that’s fragile, it’s anemic, it’s uneven, especially in the periphery of the eurozone. I would say the last thing that the eurozone can afford and need right now is another shock coming from an increase in gas prices and or even a cut off of supply of gas coming from Russia to the Western European economies. That would tip the European economies back into a recession if that were to occur.

Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics, discusses how Russia and Ukraine could affect the European recovery, market preparedness for a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy and why he sees a less dovish Federal Reserve in the near future from the 2014 Milken Global Conference on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.” 



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini on returning to Normal Interest Rates

CHFA Roubini Trailer : Roubini Thoughts on returning to Normal Interest Rates



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth

Roubini: Fiscal Drag Is Damaging U.S. Growth Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- On today's "Chart Attack," NYU Stern School of Business Professor Nouriel Roubini and Bloomberg's Matt Miller look at how the government is weighing on economic growth. They speak on Bloomberg Television's "Street Smart." (Source: Bloomberg) Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Ukraine War could Continue & Last for a while

Roubini: Suppose that Russia at this point decides to effectively either to destabilize, invade the eastern province of Ukraine. Two things will happen. The stance (ph) of the West will have to become more Russia and Russia could have (inaudible) going as far as limiting the supply of gas not just to Ukraine but also to Western Europe. Secondly, the NATO, even if they’re not going to have a military intervention, they’ll have certainty provide some military support to the government in Kiev. And that means that this war could escalate for quite a while. And therefore from a financial market point of view, there may be contagion deriving two (ph) advanced economy’s financial market, especially in the eurozone.

Schatzker: But could it really escalate for quite a while? Because we know that if Putin wants to exercise force in a big way, he can. And there’s really nobody capable of responding to it other than the United States.

Roubini: Well, the situation is such that even if he wanted to use force there (inaudible) first of all. Secondly, he’s not going to invade all of Ukraine. And you don’t know for how long a military conflict of this sort is going to continue, especially if the US and Europe were then to support militarily the government in Kiev. This war could continue and last for a while. So I’m saying this is not my baseline, but there is certainly downside risk that that will happen. But even a baseline (inaudible) remains lingering for a while, at some point investor may become worried about it. 
- in www.businessinsider.com



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

ROUBINI: A New Cold War Has Begun, And It's At Risk Of Becoming A Hot War

"There is the beginning now of a new cold war between the West and Russia," Roubini said in an interview with Bloomberg TV's Eric Schatzker and Stephanie Ruhle. "And this cold war could actually become a hot war if it’s possible Russia were to effectively destabilize and invade the eastern provinces of Ukraine."

"Certainly among the global tail risks, the one coming from Ukraine is the most important one. There is the beginning now of a new cold war between the West and Russia, and this cold war could actually become a hot war if it’s possible Russia were to effectively destabilize and invade the eastern provinces of Ukraine, in which case things would escalate. You could have another episode of global risk aversion. If this were to become a real war, (inaudible) even a situation in which the supply of gas to Europe may be cut off from Russia. The European economy is barely now recovering from a recession. That could tip back the eurozone into a recession". - in www.businessinsider.com



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini vs. Peter Schiff -- CNBC Fast Money 05-14-2014

original air date: May 14, 2014. Schiff debates Roubini on inflation, consumer response to falling prices/expectations of lower prices in the future. Schiff challenges Roubini to name one thing he's put off buying because he believed the price would come down in the future, and Roubini can't name one. Original air date CNBC Fast Money May 14, 2014.




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US Banks Are Even-Bigger-To-Fail

"Five years after Lehman's collapse US banks are even-bigger-to-fail given consolidation: J.P. Morgan taking over Bear Stearns, Bank of America taking Countrywide & Merrill Lynch, Wells Fargo taking Wachovia." - in Twitter
Related stocks: Bank of America (BAC), J.P. Morgan (JPM), Wells Fargo (WFC)
Nouriel Roubini is an American economist. He teaches at New York University's Stern School of Business and is the chairman of Roubini Global Economics.


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini -- Double Dip Recession 5 20 2010 CNBC

 Nouriel Roubini, aka "Dr. Doom," said he sees stocks going down another 20 percent and that cash is the safest place to be





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : QE tapering to have positive impact on S. Korea

Future tapering of the U.S. quantitative easing (QE) would influence the South Korean economy positively, a New York University economics professor said Monday. "QE tapering will be positive to Korea," Nouriel Roubini said in Seoul at a meeting with South Korean Finance Minister Hyun Oh- seok, noting that the QE tapering would mean a recovery of the U.S. economy, on which South Korea heavily depends for trade, according to the Finance Ministry. Interest rate hikes in the U.S. would lead to strong U.S. dollar, having a positive impact on exports, which account for around half of the South Korean economy, said Roubini. In addition, Roubini also said that South Korea held a positive position in terms of fiscal balance and sovereign debts, assessing that the April supplementary budget was appropriate and contributed to the country's recovery.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US Economy : Despite of QEs There is going to be a Recovery

 "I thought I was 'Dr. Doom until I met Peter," NYU economist Roubini said Wednesday. "Compared to him, I'm 'Dr. Boom.' He has been predicting a collapse of the dollar, gold going through the roof and inflation rising sharply. I just see the opposite. I see the U.S. economy—which, in spite of QE1, QE2, QE3—there's going to be an economic recovery."
"The real point of the argument and the panel was over inflation, over whether it was good or bad. Nouriel's point is that he believes that economies need a certain amount of inflation to grow, and that somehow consumers are better off if the prices of the things that they need and want go up every year," he said.- in CNBC



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : We Are in the beginning of Credit Bubble

“All the risky things that were happening back in ’06 and ’07 are back again to the same level, if not more,” Roubini told Fox Business Network (FBN). “So we are in the beginning of a credit bubble, but just the beginning. A year or two from now, with the policy rate still barely above zero, the risk is that it becomes a full-fledged bubble.”
Roubini warned that if the Fed ends its easing initiatives then a bond market crash could occur and eventually destroy the economy: “If you exit too late, you create a financial bubble. That’s the biggest challenge for the Fed in the next three to four years.”


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns Canada’s Housing Bubble about to Burst

‘Dr. Doom’ warns Canada’s housing bubble about to burst | It’s the doctor versus the governor in the ongoing debate over the direction of Canada’s housing market. On the pessimistic side there’s
Nouriel Roubini, the man known as “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic outlook on the global economy. He recently pinpointed Canada’s housing market as a bubble set to pop.
Canada is in the company of other housing markets that Roubini (known as one of the few to correctly predict the U.S. housing crash) says are showing “signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles,” including Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Australia and New Zealand. - in ca.finance.yahoo.com


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini on China's coming Slowdown

But a hard landing becomes more likely as the stimulus fades, nonperforming loans rise, the investment bust accelerates, and the problem of rolling over the debts of provincial governments and their special investment vehicles can no longer be papered over. - in Irish Times

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : I totally disagree with Peter Schiff

"Falling prices do not threaten consumers," he said. "Consumers benefit from falling prices."
"What you're saying about deflation is nonsense," Roubini told Schiff as the two sat next to each in front of thousands of hedge fund managers and investment pros.
"I totally disagree with Peter. His arguments about deflation are nonsense," Roubini continued. "We had deflation with the Great Depression…We had 20 years of deflation in Japan where there was no economic growth."






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : I'm in favor of Low Inflation

Roubini to Peter Schiff  :  "I'm in favor of low inflation, a target of 2 percent. You were arguing that deflation was good. I was pointing out that in the period of time that we had deflation, the Great Depression, or the stagnation of Japan, in the last 20 years, or what's happening right now in the euro zone where you have deflation and recession, deflation is associated with lack of aggregate demand that implies an economy is in depression," he said. "And therefore, deflation is a symptom of lack of growth and aggregate demand. Why do you think deflation is good? That's nonsense."- in CNBC



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Call Peter Schiff Dr. Doom not me

  "Next to him you should call me Dr. Boom," said Roubini, referring to Peter Schiff,  Speaking at the annual SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday morning, Roubini said that many of the risks in the global economy have receded. Also helping, U.S. investors no longer seem worried about political trouble overseas.





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The ECB Can Do 'Whatever It Takes' to Reflate the Economy and Market Prices

Roubini Global Economics QE Channels: How the ECB Can Do 'Whatever It Takes' to Reflate the Economy and Market Prices - in twitter

Roubini Quote : "The Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. "
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The FED could cause Economic and Financial shockwaves

There is also the risk of policy mistakes by the US Federal Reserve as it exits monetary easing. Last year, the Fed’s mere announcement that it would gradually wind down its monthly purchases of long-term financial assets triggered a “taper” tantrum in global financial markets and emerging markets. This year, tapering is priced in, but uncertainty about the timing and speed of the Fed’s efforts to normalize policy interest rates is creating volatility. Some investors and governments now worry that the Fed may raise rates too soon and too fast, causing economic and financial shockwaves.
Third, the Fed may actually exit zero rates too late and too slowly (its current plan would normalize rates to 4% only by 2018), thus causing another asset-price boom – and an eventual bust. Indeed, unconventional monetary policies in the US and other advanced economies have already led to massive asset-price reflation, which in due course could cause bubbles in real estate, credit, and equity markets. - in project syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : America on its way to a New Credit Bubble

Read in Spanish here :  http://linkis.com/gestion.pe/economia/9JfLw

or The approximate translation from Spanish below : 

The economist warns that have returned some key factors associated with anterior to the financial crisis in the United States occurred in the 2008 period.
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, said the U.S. is in the beginning of a credit bubble but is not on the verge of a strong collapse.
In an interview with Fox Business, said that this was because the interest rates on federal funds remain low.
"This slow process of normalizing monetary policy will maintain the flow of loans, which helps support the economy, but will bring unsafe practices which would cause a bubble," said Roubini, known to predict the last crisis in 2008 .



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

These Emerging Markets will do well in 2014

The better-performing emerging markets are those with fewer macroeconomic, policy, and financial weaknesses: South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, and other Asian industrial exporters; Poland and the Czech Republic in Europe; Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico in Latin America; Kenya, Rwanda, and a few other economies in Sub-Saharan Africa; and the Gulf oil-exporting countries.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Structural reforms needed to grow faster

The outlook for 2014 is dampened by longer-term constraints as well. Indeed, there is a looming risk of secular stagnation in many advanced economies, owing to the adverse effect on productivity growth of years of under-investment in human and physical capital.
And the structural reforms that these economies need to boost their potential growth will be implemented too slowly.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO -- Roubini: We Are at the very beginning of a Credit Bubble

Roubini: Slow exit will cause frothiness in markets May. 08, 2014 - 4:43 - Roubini Global Economics chairman Nouriel Roubini breaks down how a slow exit from QE will impact the markets and economy.


"All the risky things that were happening back in '06 and '07 are back again to the same level, if not more," "So we are in the beginning of a credit bubble, but just the beginning. A year or two from now, with the policy rate still barely above zero, the risk is that it becomes a full-fledged bubble."
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back to Recession

Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics, discusses how Russia and Ukraine could affect the European recovery, market preparedness for a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy and why he sees a less dovish Federal Reserve in the near future from the 2014 Milken Global Conference on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China Risks Hard Landing

 

Despite the reforms set out by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, the shift in China’s growth model from fixed investment toward private consumption will occur too slowly.

Many vested interests, including local governments and state-owned enterprises, are resisting change; a huge volume of private and public debt will go sour; and the country’s leadership is divided on how quickly reforms should be implemented.

So, while China will avoid a hard landing in 2014, its medium-term prospects remain worrisome.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Europe's fundamental problems remain unresolved

Europe's fundamental problems remain unresolved: low potential growth; high unemployment; still-high and rising levels of public debt; loss of competitiveness and slow reduction of unit labor costs (which a strong euro does not help); and extremely tight credit rationing, owing to banks' ongoing de-leveraging.

Meanwhile, progress toward a banking union will be slow, while no steps will be taken toward establishing a fiscal union, even as austerity fatigue and political risks in the euro-zone's periphery grow.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China will Continue 7 percent Growth

China will maintain an annual growth rate above 7% in 2014. But, despite the reforms set out by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, the shift in China’s growth model from fixed investment toward private consumption will occur too slowly. Many vested interests, including local governments and state-owned enterprises, are resisting change; a huge volume of private and public debt will go sour; and the country’s leadership is divided on how quickly reforms should be implemented. So, while China will avoid a hard landing in 2014, its medium-term prospects remain worrisome.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China Weakness is a Risk to Advanced Economies

The deep causes of last year’s turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. The risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US Economy to Grow faster than Emerging Markets in 2014

The global economy will grow faster in 2014, while tail risks will be lower. But, with the possible exception of the US, growth will remain anaemic in most advanced economies, and emerging-market fragility—including China’s uncertain efforts at economic rebalancing—could become a drag on global growth in subsequent years.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China set to top US as world's No. 1 Economy

The biggest geopolitical risk of our times is not a conflict between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation. Nor is it the risk of chronic disorder in an arc of instability that now runs from the Maghreb all the way to the Hindu Kush. It is not even the risk of Cold War II between Russia and the West over Ukraine.
All of these are serious risks, of course; but none is as serious as the challenge of sustaining the peaceful character of China's rise. That is why it is particularly disturbing to hear Japanese and Chinese officials and analysts compare the countries' bilateral relationship to that between Britain and Germany on the eve of World War I.
The disputes between China and several of its neighbors over disputed islands and maritime claims (starting with the conflict with Japan) are just the tip of the iceberg. As China becomes an even greater economic power, it will become increasingly dependent on shipping routes for its imports of energy, other inputs, and goods. This implies the need to develop a blue-water navy to ensure that China's economy cannot be strangled by a maritime blockade.
But what China considers a defensive imperative could be perceived as aggressive and expansionist by its neighbors and the United States. And what looks like a defensive imperative to the US and its Asian allies — building further military capacity in the region to manage China's rise — could be perceived by China as an aggressive attempt to contain it. - in CNBC



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini & Leading Economists Debate Where the World Is Headed

Leading Economists Debate Where the World Is Headed




 This panel brings together prominent economists to debate a range of issues with global scope: from inequality and emerging markets to austerity policies and the impact of technology on employment. This will be a free-ranging discussion focused on where the world is headed and what can be done to improve economies and people's lives everywhere.

Speakers:

Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics, Harvard University; Former Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, Roubini Global Economics; Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University

John Taylor, Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics, Stanford University; George P. Schultz Senior Fellow in Economics, Hoover Institution
Moderator:

Gerard Baker, Managing Editor, The Wall Street Journal; Editor-in-Chief, Dow Jones & Company


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Global Ground Zero in Asia By Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – The biggest geopolitical risk of our times is not a conflict between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation. Nor is it the risk of chronic disorder in an arc of instability that now runs from the Maghreb all the way to the Hindu Kush. It is not even the risk of Cold War II between Russia and the West over Ukraine.
All of these are serious risks, of course; but none is as serious as the challenge of sustaining the peaceful character of China’s rise. That is why it is particularly disturbing to hear Japanese and Chinese officials and analysts compare the countries’ bilateral relationship to that between Britain and Germany on the eve of World War I.
The disputes between China and several of its neighbors over disputed islands and maritime claims (starting with the conflict with Japan) are just the tip of the iceberg. As China becomes an even greater economic power, it will become increasingly dependent on shipping routes for its imports of energy, other inputs, and goods. This implies the need to develop a blue-water navy to ensure that China’s economy cannot be strangled by a maritime blockade.
But what China considers a defensive imperative could be perceived as aggressive and expansionist by its neighbors and the United States. And what looks like a defensive imperative to the US and its Asian allies – building further military capacity in the region to manage China’s rise – could be perceived by China as an aggressive attempt to contain it.
Historically, whenever a new great power has emerged and faced an existing power, military conflict has ensued. The inability to accommodate Germany’s rise led to two world wars in the twentieth century; Japan’s confrontation with another Pacific power – the US – brought World War II to Asia.
Of course, there are no iron laws of history: China and its interlocutors are not fated to repeat the past. Trade, investment, and diplomacy may defuse rising tensions. But will they?
Europe’s great powers finally tired of slaughtering one another. Facing a shared threat from the Soviet bloc and US prodding, European countries created institutions to promote peace and cooperation, leading to economic and monetary union, now a banking union, and possibly in the future a fiscal and political union.
But no such institutions exist in Asia, where long-standing historical grievances among China, Japan, Korea, India, and other countries remain open wounds. Even two of America’s most important allies – Japan and South Korea – find themselves in a bitter dispute about the Korean “comfort women” forced to work in Japanese military brothels before and during World War II, despite an official apology from Japan 20 years ago.
Why are such tensions among Asia’s great powers becoming more serious, and why now?
For starters, Asia’s powers have recently elected or are poised to elect leaders who are more nationalistic than their predecessors. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South Korean President Park Geun-hye, and Narendra Modi, who is likely to be India’s next prime minister, all fall into this category.
Second, all of these leaders now face massive challenges stemming from the need for structural reforms to sustain satisfactory growth rates in the face of global economic forces that are disrupting old models. Different types of structural reforms are crucially important in China, Japan, India, Korea, and Indonesia. If leaders in one or more of these countries were to fail on the economic front, they could feel politically constrained to shift the blame onto foreign “enemies.”
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-says-that-if-the-the-global-order-blows-up--the-detonation-will-occur-in-asia#jVO530xoUmmuOgt6.99




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns Canada’s Housing Bubble about to Burst

‘Dr. Doom’ warns Canada’s housing bubble about to burst .
 It’s the doctor versus the governor in the ongoing debate over the direction of Canada’s housing market. On the pessimistic side there’s

Nouriel Roubini , the man known as “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic outlook on the global economy. He recently pinpointed Canada’s housing market as a bubble set to pop.

Canada is in the company of other housing markets that Roubini (known as one of the few to correctly predict the U.S. housing crash) says are showing
“signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles,” including Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Australia and New Zealand. - via ca.finance.yahoo.com




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US Economy to Benefit from The Shale-Energy Revolution

In the US, economic performance in 2014 will benefit from the shale-energy revolution, improvement in the labor and housing markets, and the "reshoring" of manufacturing.


The downside risks result from political gridlock in Congress (particularly given the upcoming midterm election in November), which will continue to limit progress on long-term fiscal consolidation; a lack of clarity about the Federal Reserve's planned exit from quantitative easing (QE) and zero policy rates; and regulatory uncertainties.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Skilled Workers vs Blue Collar Workers

Roubini says the Fed is caught in a position where it needs to do more to help the economy, but at the same time, it's beginning to create new bubbles. He referred to what he sees now as "frothiness," pointing in particular to housing, junk bonds, and, potentially, bitcoins. But in two or three years time, Roubini says we could have a problem that leads to another financial crisis.

"Capital will do well, and skilled labor will do well. Blue collar workers, not as much."

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nasim Taleb about Economic Prognosticators

  "Every opinion-maker needs to have 'skin in the game' in the event of harm caused by reliance on his information or opinion....Talk...when it comes to predictions, can be just talk, devoid of embodiment and stripped of true evidence. As in anything with words, it is not the victory of the most correct, but that of the most charming--or the one who can produce the most academic-sounding material....There is no penalty for opinion makers who harm society. And this is very bad practice." Nasim Taleb in his latest book, Antifragile


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics