Roubini: Watch out if the Fed makes this mistake

Nouriel Roubini, the bearish economist known as “Dr. Doom,” warned investors to look out if the Federal Reserve waits too long to hike interest rates, which could consequently cause a huge market bubble. “Last time around it took them two years to normalize from 5 to 5.25, too little too late … they created the biggest housing, real estate credit and equity bubble,” Roubini said Tuesday on CNBC’s “Closing Bell.” This time “it’s going to take them up to four years to go from zero to a neutral 4 percent. The risk is that we are going to create another huge bubble in the economy.”



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini on Fed, Latin America, Markets

 March 27 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University, talks about the impact of Federal Reserve policy on Latin America and other emerging markets, the outlook for growth in Latin America and investment strategy for the region. Roubini, speaking with Bloomberg's Jose Enrique Arrioja yesterday at an event organized by the Latin Jewish Center in New York, also discusses the outlook for the equity markets in the U.S. and other regions. (Source: Bloomberg)





 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Yellen Is Creating another huge Bubble in the Economy

"Last time around it took them two years to normalize from 5 to 5.25, too little too late … they created the biggest housing, real estate credit and equity bubble," Roubini said Tuesday on CNBC's "Closing Bell." This time "it's going to take them up to four years to go from zero to a neutral 4 percent. The risk is that we are going to create another huge bubble in the economy."




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO - Nouriel Roubini: Fed risks creating Bubble

Discussing QE and when the Fed will raise interest rates, with Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics co-founder and chairman.






well, they can now start as they have tapering qe and they'll be done with qe by october. that said, they're going to be on hold for at least six months and what janet yellen meant was not that that was a ceiling, but it was a floor to how much they're going to be on hold before they're going to normalize. they're going to normalize slowly. you think that's a good idea? i think part of the signal by the fed is the correct one. there's, of course, a reason they're going to go too soon. changing the composition you have new now hawksisher, prosser. the composition is rather different. up to four new members of the board, three for sure, maybe four, having new voting members. so janet yellen matters, but under the bernanke, the fed became a collegial democracy not the monarch which it was under greenspan. the genie is out of the bottle. she has to be collegial. she's one vote out of 12, an important one. do you think they could make a mistake here then? well, two types of mistake they could do. one to start too soon and hike too much and that could lead to market consequences like we saw last year when there was a surprise from the fed tapering. another one could occur right now. the other mistake is they could start too late and normalize very slowly not in terms of risk of goods inflation, but asset inflation. last time around it took them two years to normalize from 5 to 25. created the biggest housing, real estate equity bubble. this time around they'll be on hold for another year. they'll normalize very slowly. take them up to four years to go from zero to 4%. the risk is we'll create another huge bubble in the economy. that's a big risk. i was going to say to that point about 4% before we move on, is that the normal policy rate anymore? yes. there's a huge discussion right now as to whether that rate has moved lower because -- it has. neutral fed funds rate used to be 6.5% two cycles ago, then 5.25%. now the fed agrees it's 4%. long-term inflation is going to be 2%. the real feds fund rate is neutral. therefore, the new neutral rate is going to be 4%. none of this is happening in a vacuum. i mean, it's still full speed ahead in europe and in japan with their monetary easing process over there. does it give them a greater advantage as we begin tapering at this time? what do you think of what's going on in europe and in japan right now? i think europe and japan, they need more monetary easing. in japan the consumption tax will slow the growth. markets were expecting the boj would start easing before april. they have not done so. that's why the yen has been strengthening and the stock market has been falling. i'm sure there will be more easing by the boj. the question is not whether, but when. i think it's going to be in july when they see the feks of the consumption tax. the ecb is still on hold. they should have another rate cut, credit easing possibly, even quantitative easing. they will eventually get there but later than the markets are




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: 'Peru must diversify its Economy Gradually'

(Summarily Translated from Spanish @ http://peru21.pe/economia/nouriel-roubini-peru-diversificar-su-economia-gradualmente-2172837)
Famed international economist who predicted the 2008 crisis also recommended to Peru to focus on education and infrastructure.
Nouriel Roubini, known to the world as Dr. Doom for his pessimistic predictions about the global economy, our country has a different , more positive view . Think we are doing things right , but to be considered and start to diversify the economy to avoid falling into the trap of income.
The Turkish economist , doctor in this specialty from the University of Harvard , said this morning during a discussion organized by the University of the Pacific, Peru has grown 6.5 % in the last ten years and has had a good fiscal and monetary management .
However , he said that on the basis of natural resources should gradually head toward diversification . Opportunity in other sectors there is the case of agriculture or fishing , as it has done Chile and gastronomy and especially tourism, Roubini said after commenting that has been in " Inca sites " in Cusco , so you know it.


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Inequality Reduction is Important for Development

Economic growth in emerging markets must be cohesive and reduce inequality.
While market-oriented reforms are necessary, government has a key role to play in providing a social safety net for the poor; maintaining high-quality public services; investing in education, training, health care, infrastructure, and innovation; enforcing competition policies that constrain the power of economic and financial oligopolies; and ensuring genuine equality of opportunity for all.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nassim Taleb What is a Black Swan

 Video used by prof. V.Inglezakis, at Safety Engineering and Risk Management Lectures at Nazarbayev University




Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses the central theme of his bestselling book, "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable."

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The Future Has Always Been Crazier Than We Thought with Nassim Nicholas Taleb.

Author Nassim Nicholas Taleb discusses his book, The Black Swan in relation to predicting the future, learning from the consequences of the unknown, and the power of randomness.

Nassim Nicholas Taleb is an essayist, belletrist, and researcher only interested in one single topic, chance (particularly extreme and rare events, the "Black Swans" i.e. outliers); but it falls at the intersection of philosophy/epistemology (skepticism; knowledge about the dynamics of history; inferential claims), philosophy/ethics (stoicism facing random events; theories of nonhedonic happiness), mathematical sciences (probability theory, statistical physics), social science/finance (opacity & incomplete information in economics), and cognitive science (the mental biases making us "fooled" by randomness). He mainly derives his intuitions from a 2-decade long and intense practice of derivatives trading ("nondull" activities with plenty of randomness).

Taleb is currently a researcher at London Business School. He the Dean’s Professor in the Sciences of Uncertainty University of Massachusetts at Amherst, Fellow in Mathematics in Finance, Adjunct Professor of Mathematics at the Courant Institute of Mathematical Sciences of New York University (since 1999), and research fellow, Wharton School Financial Institutions Center, and Chairman, Empirica LLC.

Taleb held senior trading positions with trading houses in New York and London and operated as a floor trader before founding Empirica LLC. His degrees include an MBA from the Wharton School and a Ph.D. from the University of Paris. He is the author of Dynamic Hedging, Fooled by Randomness, and The Black Swan.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

In Indonesia, economic nationalism is on the rise

 But uncertainty abounds. In Indonesia, economic nationalism is on the rise, implying a risk that economic policy will follow an inward-looking course. In India, the opposition Bharatiya Janata Party’s prime ministerial candidate, Narendra Modi, if elected, may or may not be able to implement at the national level the growth-oriented policies that he successfully implemented at the state level in Gujarat. Much will depend on whether he can shed his sectarian attitudes and become a truly inclusive leader. - in  jewishbusinessnews.com



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Turkey blocking access to Twitter : Pathetic anti-democratic action

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Speaking now at the American Turkish Society in NY about Turkey's Financial and Economic Outlook
Pathetic anti-democratic action @ftcompanies: Turkey blocks access to Twitter http://on.ft.com/1hKjgZt  - in Twitter
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

A Change in Government is likely in India and Indonesia

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According to the positive narrative about emerging markets, industrialization, urbanization, per capita income growth, and the rise of a middle-class consumer society were supposed to boost long-term economic and sociopolitical stability. But in many countries recently wracked by political unrest -- Brazil, Chile, Turkey, India, Venezuela, Argentina, Russia, Ukraine, and Thailand -- it is the urban middle classes that have been manning the barricades. Likewise, urban students and the middle classes spearheaded the Arab Spring, before losing authority to Islamist forces.

This is not a complete surprise: in many countries, working classes and rural farmers have benefited from per capita income increases and a broadening social safety net, while the middle classes feel the pinch from rising inflation, poor public services, corruption, and intrusive government. And now the middle classes tend to be more vocal and better politically organized than in the past, in large part because social media allow them to mobilize faster.

Not all of the recent political unrest is unwelcome; a lot of it may lead to better governance and greater commitment to growth-oriented economic policies. Among the Fragile Five, a change in government is likely in India and Indonesia.  - in todayszaman


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Argentina needs political stability before upside

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of Argentina at this point is a lame duck and cannot run for a new term.

So the next presidential election—whether the winner is going to be Mauricio Macri or Daniel Scioli or any of the other competitors—any of them would likely be more moderate in terms of macro policies and macroeconomic reforms than the current Argentina is. 

In spite of the mess, Argentina had a strong rally in its own stock market in local currency terms—and even in foreign currency terms—last year. So there are still economic opportunities there. The macroeconomy can be stabilized. There are huge reserves of shale gas. You could see a surprise on the upside when it’s more clear there will be political and policy changes.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Canada Housing Bubble : not a crash, but certainly a meaningful correction could occur

"I'm not predicting a crash, but certainly a meaningful correction could occur and that would be something that could of course dampen the economy that is already growing moderately," said Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics and an economics professor at New York University's Stern School of Business.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Germany and The Ucraine Crisis

Nouriel Roubini ‏: "Berlin is fully focused today on how to react to the Russian actions in Crimea and Ukraine"
" I am in Berlin today for policy meetings. Important policy debates in Germany on domestic policy issues and European wide ones" - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Peru -- Roubini Video Interview on Global & Peruvian Economies

NOURIEL ROUBINI (Economista que predijo la crisis del 2008)




Tema: la economía mundial y la peruana, y lo que el Perú debe hacer para diversificar su economía seguir creciendo a tasas altas
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Political Temperature in France not Pleasant

Nouriel Roubini ‏: I am in Paris for policy and business meetings on a lovely spring-like weather day. Political temperature in France not as pleasing - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Bitcoin Is a Ponzi Scheme

Here are some of Dr. Nouriel Roubini  tweets about Bitcoin   : Apart from a base 4 criminal activities, Bitcoin is not a currency as it is not a unit of account or a means of payments or store of value 

Bitcoin is not a unit of account as no price of goods and services is set in Bitcoin unit nor it ever will. So it isn't a currency 

Bitcoin isn't means of payment as few transactions in Bitcoin. And given its volatility all who accept it convert it right back into $/€/¥ 

Bitcoin isn't a store of value as little wealth is in Bitcoin and no assets in it. Also given price volatility it is a lousy store of value

So Bitcoin isn't a currency. It is btw a Ponzi game and a conduit for criminal/illegal activities. And it isn't safe given hacking of it.

BTCbugs like gold bugs are fanatics who speak of BTC in cult-like religious ways.Like gold bugs they have paranoid conspiracy views on the $




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO - Nouriel Roubini Interview in Palazzio Brancaccio Rome, 19 Feb 2014

Interview AISM : Nouriel Roubini et Karim Sghaier, au Palazzio Brancaccio in Rome, le 19 Feb 2014 


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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO - Roubini: How I'd Invest $1 Million Right Now

 March 6 (Bloomberg) -- The New York University economist Nouriel Roubini insists he's not 'Dr. Doom,' he's 'Dr. Realist' in his global macro investment outlook. Regardless of his nickname, here's how he would invest $1 million.




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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO -- Roubini on the Canadian Housing Market

 CBC interview with Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics. February 2014
"Signs that home prices are entering bubble territory in these economies include fast-rising home prices, high and rising price-to-income ratios, and levels of mortgage debt as a share of household debt."

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Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Saudi Arabia is implementing Economy Reforms even if speed is less than optimal

Nouriel Roubini : Interesting policy/ business meetings in Riyadh today. Saudi Arabia is implementing economy reforms even if speed is less than optimal - in Twitter


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Skeptic on Bitcoin

Nouriel Roubini : Any retailer accepting BTC for payments is likely to convert them back right away into $/€/¥ as BTC price volatility implies huge mkt risk - in Twitter

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Kuwait Airlines is the most lousy airline ever.

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Taking off from London to Kuwait. Kuwait Airlines is the most lousy airline ever. - in twitter




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China : Risks of a Hard Landing next Year

Nouriel Roubini said even though China, the world’s second largest economy, will grow at about 7 percent this year, there are risks of a hard landing next year, with growth slowing to 6.5 percent and 6 percent year after, as entrenched interests who have benefited from the country’s debt and investment driven growth model resist the transition to consumer spending-led growth.




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Predicts: The Price of Gold will reach $ 1,000/oz in 2015

Although the precious metal rises, the economist insists his prediction. "The factors that push him down are strong," he says. Exclusively with SE.com, takes a look at the big picture.
Nouriel Roubini vaticina: El precio del oro llegará a US$1,000 por onza en el 2015 Pese a que el metal precioso sube, el economista insiste en su predicción. "Los factores que lo empujan a la baja son fuertes", dice. En exclusiva con SE.com, da una mirada al panorama global.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: How I'd Invest $1 Million Right Now

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- The New York University economist Nouriel Roubini insists he's not 'Dr. Doom,' he's 'Dr. Realist' in his global macro investment outlook. Regardless of his nickname, here's how he would invest $1 million.






 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Argentine President Cristina Fernández is a lame duck

Even in extremely fragile and risky cases, such as Argentina, Venezuela and Ukraine, political and economic conditions have become so bad that—short of becoming failed states—the situation can only get better. Argentine President Cristina Fernández is a lame duck and any of her potential successors will be more moderate. In Venezuela, President Nicolás Maduro is a weak leader who may eventually be unseated by a more centrist opposition. Ukraine, having gotten rid of a kleptocratic thug, may stabilize under a Western-led economic revival programme if the country can avoid civil war. So, in most cases, there is reason to hope that electoral change and political upheaval will give rise to moderate governments whose commitment to market-oriented policies will steadily move their economies in the right direction.- in Project Syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Change in government is unlikely in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil

a change in government is unlikely in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil. But the current rulers, if reelected, may shift policies. South African President Jacob Zuma has chosen a pro-business tycoon as his vice-presidential candidate and may move toward market-oriented reforms. Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdoğan cannot realize his dream of a presidential republic and will have to follow his opponents – including a large protest movement – to the secular center. And Brazilian President Dilma Rousseff may embrace more stable macroeconomic policies and accelerate structural reforms, including privatization. - in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China : Growth model resist the transition to consumer spending-led Growth

Roubini said even though China, the world’s second largest economy, will grow at about 7 percent this year, there are risks of a hard landing next year, with growth slowing to 6.5 percent and 6 percent year after, as entrenched interests who have benefited from the country’s debt and investment driven growth model resist the transition to consumer spending-led growth.
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Canada Housing Market is due for a Correction but not a Crash

Canada’s housing market is due for a correction that will hamper economic growth as consumers pare back spending to repair their balance sheets, Roubini said, adding he doesn’t think the country will see a home-prices crash. - in Bloomberg


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Resource Boom a form of Dutch Disease

“The resource boom has lead to a strong currency that’s crowding out manufacturing,” Roubini said. “That’s a form of Dutch disease and that could be a long-term problem.” - in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Advocates The Weakening of The Canadian Dollar

“I would use more aggressive monetary policy to weaken the currency,” Roubini said at a lunchtime event at the Toronto Hilton, referring to the Canadian dollar. “That’s what I would do. More than fiscal stimulus I would say a commitment to keep rates low for longer, or having an easing bias, something along those lines.” “It may not be conventional wisdom right now but I’d say keeping your currency weaker right now is important,” Roubini said. - via Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging-Market Risk and Reward

NEW YORK – One definition of an emerging-market economy is that its political risks are higher, and its policy credibility lower, than in advanced economies. After the financial crisis, when emerging-market economies continued to grow robustly, that definition seemed obsolete; now, with the recent turbulence in emerging economies driven in part by weaker economic-policy credibility and growing political uncertainty, it seems as relevant as ever.

Consider the so-called Fragile Five: India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, and South Africa. All have in common not only economic and policy weaknesses (twin fiscal and current-account deficits, slowing growth and rising inflation, sluggish structural reforms), but also presidential or parliamentary elections this year. Many other emerging economies – Ukraine, Argentina, Venezuela, Russia, Hungary, Thailand, and Nigeria – also face significant political and/or social uncertainties and civil unrest.

And that list does not include the perilously unstable Middle East, where the Arab Spring in Libya and Egypt has become a winter of seething discontent; civil war rages in Syria and smolders in Yemen; and Iraq, Iran, Afghanistan, and Pakistan form a contiguous arc of volatility. Nor does it include Asia’s geopolitical risks arising from the territorial disputes between China and many of its neighbors, including Japan, the Philippines, South Korea, and Vietnam.

Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-looks-for-the-silver-lining-in-the-turmoil-currently-wracking-so-many-middle-income-economies#T0DwbL9pbgyltGps.99



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The rising tension between China and Japan

What was the main theme at Davos this year?

Nouriel Roubini : Probably the biggest one was the rising tension between China and Japan. People are starting to make comparisons to 1914: You have a rising power facing an existing power, and in the past that has led to war.
Of course, it’s not inevitable, but both the Japanese side and even the Chinese side have made bellicose statements. So I hope diplomacy can succeed but I’d say that that was one of the big stories. - in Business Insider




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Money to flow from Canada to America

If the Fed starts to raise rates some time next year, and the Bank of Canada waits for a few months, if not quarters, then money is going to flow out of Canada into the U.S. and that is going to weaken the currency.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Canadian Dollar needs to Weaken

I would say if your currency was 10 percent weaker, that would help manufacturing. It might not be conventional wisdom, but at the margin, I would say, keeping your currency weaker right now, it's important.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Markets & The Risk to The World Economy

How big of a risk to the world economy are the troubles we’ve seen in emerging markets recently?

Nouriel Roubini : I was in a panel in plenary session about emerging markets, and I said that I think what happened last year might repeat itself this year. You still have, on the one side, concerns about the Chinese economic slowdown, there are concerns about how fast the Fed tapers and raises interest rates, commodities prices are becoming softer, many of these countries have not done structural reforms, and many of them have a lot of fragility, have lax monetary credit and fiscal policy.
And now there is a layer of political uncertainty, with the “Fragile Five” having parliamentary or presidential elections: India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa. There’s also additional political uncertainty coming from other places like Ukraine, places like Argentina, places like Thailand, that affects markets.
So what happened this week was a bit of a mini perfect storm between Chinese PMI of 50, Argentina letting its currency go, noises coming politically from Ukraine, Turkey, and Thailand … so the contagion is not just within emerging markets but also affects advanced economies’ equity markets. - in Business Insider Australia



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Italian TV Interview with Nouriel Roubini Global Economics

Interview with Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics. New Italian government. Eurozone economic situation. Opportunity and risk in Europe.



Nouriel Roubini is the co-founder and chairman of Roubini Global Economics and a professor of economics at New York University's Stern School of Business. From 1998-2000, he served as the Senior Economist for International Affairs at the White House Council of Economic Advisors and then as Senior Advisor to the Under Secretary for International Affairs at the U.S. Treasury Department, helping to resolve the Asian and global financial crises among other issues.

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

ROUBINI: We Just Saw A Mini Perfect Storm

How big of a risk to the world economy are the troubles we’ve seen in emerging markets recently?

Nouriel Roubini  : I was in a panel in plenary session about emerging markets, and I said that I think what happened last year might repeat itself this year. You still have, on the one side, concerns about the Chinese economic slowdown, there are concerns about how fast the Fed tapers and raises interest rates, commodities prices are becoming softer, many of these countries have not done structural reforms, and many of them have a lot of fragility, have lax monetary credit and fiscal policy.

And now there is a layer of political uncertainty, with the “Fragile Five” having parliamentary or presidential elections: India, Indonesia, Turkey, Brazil, South Africa. There’s also additional political uncertainty coming from other places like Ukraine, places like Argentina, places like Thailand, that affects markets.

So what happened this week was a bit of a mini perfect storm between Chinese PMI of 50, Argentina letting its currency go, noises coming politically from Ukraine, Turkey, and Thailand … so the contagion is not just within emerging markets but also affects advanced economies’ equity markets. - in Business Insider Australia





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

How to Weaken The Euro

“You need to have some degree of monetary easing and credit easing, possibly negative deposit rates, to weaken the euro, to ease financial conditions, to jump start credit growth,” Roubini, the co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Rome today. “I don’t expect action in this direction very soon, but I would say some things the ECB can do are not controversial.” “The value of the euro is too strong,” Roubini said. “Additional monetary easing, conventional and unconventional, could weaken the euro.” “The ECB is still several quarters away from considering seriously that option,” Roubini said. “But you never know that maybe by the end of the year that option, that I think is one of the useful things that the ECB could do, may eventually materialize.” - in Bloomberg



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Markets -- The threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign debt and banking crisis remains low

Nonetheless, the threat of a full-fledged currency, sovereign debt and banking crisis remains low, even in the Fragile Five, for several reasons. All have flexible exchange rates, a large war chest of reserves to shield against a run on their currencies and banks, and fewer currency mismatches. Many also have sounder banking systems, while their public and private debt ratios, though rising, are still low, with little risk of insolvency.
Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct. Many have sound macroeconomic, financial and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low?per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented. So it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed.
But the short-run policy trade-offs that many of these countries face - damned if they tighten monetary and fiscal policy fast enough, and damned if they do not - remain ugly. The external risks and internal macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities that they face will continue to cloud their immediate outlook. The next year or two will be a bumpy ride for many emerging markets, before more stable and market-oriented governments implement sounder policies. - in Project Syndicate 2014.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Euro is too strong

“The value of the euro is too strong,” Roubini said recently in a Bloomberg interview “Additional monetary easing, conventional and unconventional, could weaken the euro.” “The ECB is still several quarters away from considering seriously that option,” Roubini said. “But you never know that maybe by the end of the year that option, that I think is one of the useful things that the ECB could do, may eventually materialize.”- in Bloomberg

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Economies at risk of rising Inflation

Fed has increased the pace of its QE tapering, structural reforms are not likely until after elections; and incumbent governments have been similarly wary of the growth-depressing effects of tightening fiscal, monetary, and credit policies.

Indeed, the failure of many emerging-market governments to tighten macroeconomic policy sufficiently has led to another round of currency depreciation, which risks feeding into higher inflation and jeopardizing these countries ability to finance twin fiscal and external deficits. Chinese growth is unlikely to accelerate and lift commodity prices


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Renzi the right man to reform Italy, but it needs a strong government

Source Il Sole 24 Ore http://mobile.ilsole24ore.com/sole24orem/post/99?url=ABMkwZx

The time to act quickly and talk less because Italy very fragile , and Matteo Renzi just the man to do this. a strong leader has vision , ability , charisma and leadership to create the political conditions to implement the necessary reforms. so that Nouriel Roubini , renowned economist , a professor at New York University, the chairman of the board in charge of the weight of a "game changer ." In an exclusive interview with Il Sole 24 Ore, Roubini , in Rome for a conference on the future of the eurozone , defines Renzi young, dynamic , energetic, with good ideas, centrist , which can succeed in creating a coalition able to make changes radicals necessary for Italy . Despite the qualities that recognizes Renzi Roubini , the economist , known around the world under the name of " Mr. Doctor Doom" , also believes that for one person alone is not enough to do all the work on the reforms needed cohesion in the coalition , and serves a strong government .
For Roubini there ' a huge gap between the center-right and center-left on the necessary reforms to Italy. The long list . And to the question where to start Roubini has clear ideas : Italy needs to change the electoral system as the first institutional reform , but what about the economy , Italy should definitely increase the growth potential and productivity . To do this we must begin by reducing the tax wedge . Roubini for every euro saved by the spending review should go to reducing the tax wedge . In addition, the labor market has become more flexible. Roubini believes that Italy has made significant progress on the rigor of public accounts keeping the deficit below 3 %, but the public debt at 130% of GDP could rise even if c ' sufficient growth .



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : ECB Has Room to Ease Credit While Weakening Euro

“You need to have some degree of monetary easing and credit easing, possibly negative deposit rates, to weaken the euro, to ease financial conditions, to jump start credit growth,” Roubini, the co-founder of Roubini Global Economics LLC, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television in Rome today. “I don’t expect action in this direction very soon, but I would say some things the ECB can do are not controversial.” - in Bloomberg




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Over time, optimism about Emerging Markets is probably correct

 Over time, optimism about emerging markets is probably correct. Many have sound macroeconomic, financial and policy fundamentals. Moreover, some of the medium-term fundamentals for most emerging markets, including the fragile ones, remain strong: urbanization, industrialization, catch-up growth from low?per capita income, a demographic dividend, the emergence of a more stable middle class, the rise of a consumer society and the opportunities for faster output gains once structural reforms are implemented. So it is not fair to lump all emerging markets into one basket; differentiation is needed.

But the short-run policy trade-offs that many of these countries face - damned if they tighten monetary and fiscal policy fast enough, and damned if they do not - remain ugly. The external risks and internal macroeconomic and structural vulnerabilities that they face will continue to cloud their immediate outlook. The next year or two will be a bumpy ride for many emerging markets, before more stable and market-oriented governments implement sounder policies.- in Project-Syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Renzi the Tony Blair or Bill Clinton of Italy ?

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " Will Renzi be the Tony Blair or Bill Clinton of Italy, a "new left" centrist leader that implements structural reforms & restores growth?"

"Can a young new leader aged 39 - Renzi - shake up a sclerotic country like Italy that is rapidly aging and in chronic economic decline?"- in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini | The Brics Bubble

The financial turmoil that hit emerging market economies last spring, following the US Federal Reserve’s taper tantrum over its quantitative easing (QE) policy, has returned with a vengeance. This time, the trigger was a confluence of several events: a currency crisis in Argentina, where the authorities stopped intervening in the forex markets to prevent the loss of foreign reserves; weaker economic data from China; and persistent political uncertainty and unrest in Turkey, Ukraine and Thailand.

This mini perfect storm in emerging markets was soon transmitted, via international investors’ risk aversion, to advanced economies’ stock markets. But the immediate trigger for these pressures should not be confused with their deeper causes: Many emerging markets are in real trouble.

The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa—dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year. But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.

Then, there are the over-hyped BRICS countries, now falling back to reality. Three of them (Brazil, Russia, and South Africa) will grow more slowly than the US this year, with real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) rising at less than 2.5%, while the economies of the other two (China and India) are slowing sharply. Indeed, Brazil, India, and South Africa are members of the Fragile Five, and demographic decline in China and Russia will undermine both countries’ potential growth.

The largest of the BRICS, China, faces additional risk stemming from a credit-fuelled investment boom, with excessive borrowing by local governments, state-owned enterprises, and real estate firms severely weakening the asset portfolios of banks and shadow banks. Most credit bubbles this large have ended up causing a hard economic landing, and China’s economy is unlikely to escape unscathed, particularly as reforms to rebalance growth from high savings and fixed investment to private consumption are likely to be implemented too slowly, given the powerful interests aligned against them.

Moreover, the deep causes of last year’s turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. For starters, the risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.

At the same time, Fed’s tapering of its long-term asset purchases has begun in earnest, with interest rates set to rise. As a result, the capital that flowed to emerging markets in the years of high liquidity and low yields in advanced economies is now fleeing many countries where easy money caused fiscal, monetary, and credit policies to become too lax.

http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/NLtzcE6zodVUWwxlqwvQeK/Nouriel-Roubini--The-trouble-with-emerging-markets.html



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini 2014 trip in Africa

Nouriel Roubini ‏: I spent 10 days in Africa -Nigeria, South Africa, Congo-Brazzaville, DRC & Zimbabwe- with the Invest Africa that organized an excellent trip
According to local policy officials 70% of folks in the DRC live on a $1 a day or less and a majority suffers of severe malnutrition - via Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Shadow-Banking Credit last year, accounted for 29% of China’s total Credit

The shadow-banking system emerged to meet the demand from private firms and SOEs for extra liquidity to help them cope with the slowing economy and fulfill their investment commitments. Private-sector entrepreneurs in cities like Wenzhou were willing to pay annual interest rates as high as 15-20%.

On the supply side, savers – including wealthy households and corporations with surplus cash – wanted positive real interest rates on their deposits. Loan-guarantee institutions, trust companies, and others sought to benefit from the gap between the 3.5% return on one-year fixed deposits in the official banking system and rates of up to 20% in the shadow-banking sector. The result was a 43% increase in shadow-banking credit last year, accounting for 29% of China’s total credit. - in www.project-syndicate.org


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Calgary [CANADA] is a Boom town

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Calgary is a boom town & Alberta an energy hub given oil sands & unconventional energy. Issue: how to transport it to market destinations? - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics