Roubini : I'm in favor of Low Inflation

Roubini to Peter Schiff  :  "I'm in favor of low inflation, a target of 2 percent. You were arguing that deflation was good. I was pointing out that in the period of time that we had deflation, the Great Depression, or the stagnation of Japan, in the last 20 years, or what's happening right now in the euro zone where you have deflation and recession, deflation is associated with lack of aggregate demand that implies an economy is in depression," he said. "And therefore, deflation is a symptom of lack of growth and aggregate demand. Why do you think deflation is good? That's nonsense."- in CNBC



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Call Peter Schiff Dr. Doom not me

  "Next to him you should call me Dr. Boom," said Roubini, referring to Peter Schiff,  Speaking at the annual SALT hedge fund conference in Las Vegas on Wednesday morning, Roubini said that many of the risks in the global economy have receded. Also helping, U.S. investors no longer seem worried about political trouble overseas.





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The ECB Can Do 'Whatever It Takes' to Reflate the Economy and Market Prices

Roubini Global Economics QE Channels: How the ECB Can Do 'Whatever It Takes' to Reflate the Economy and Market Prices - in twitter

Roubini Quote : "The Treasury plan is a disgrace: a bailout of reckless bankers, lenders and investors that provides little direct debt relief to borrowers and financially stressed households and that will come at a very high cost to the US taxpayer. And the plan does nothing to resolve the severe stress in money markets and interbank markets that are now close to a systemic meltdown. "
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The FED could cause Economic and Financial shockwaves

There is also the risk of policy mistakes by the US Federal Reserve as it exits monetary easing. Last year, the Fed’s mere announcement that it would gradually wind down its monthly purchases of long-term financial assets triggered a “taper” tantrum in global financial markets and emerging markets. This year, tapering is priced in, but uncertainty about the timing and speed of the Fed’s efforts to normalize policy interest rates is creating volatility. Some investors and governments now worry that the Fed may raise rates too soon and too fast, causing economic and financial shockwaves.
Third, the Fed may actually exit zero rates too late and too slowly (its current plan would normalize rates to 4% only by 2018), thus causing another asset-price boom – and an eventual bust. Indeed, unconventional monetary policies in the US and other advanced economies have already led to massive asset-price reflation, which in due course could cause bubbles in real estate, credit, and equity markets. - in project syndicate


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : America on its way to a New Credit Bubble

Read in Spanish here :  http://linkis.com/gestion.pe/economia/9JfLw

or The approximate translation from Spanish below : 

The economist warns that have returned some key factors associated with anterior to the financial crisis in the United States occurred in the 2008 period.
Renowned economist Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, said the U.S. is in the beginning of a credit bubble but is not on the verge of a strong collapse.
In an interview with Fox Business, said that this was because the interest rates on federal funds remain low.
"This slow process of normalizing monetary policy will maintain the flow of loans, which helps support the economy, but will bring unsafe practices which would cause a bubble," said Roubini, known to predict the last crisis in 2008 .



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

These Emerging Markets will do well in 2014

The better-performing emerging markets are those with fewer macroeconomic, policy, and financial weaknesses: South Korea, the Philippines, Malaysia, and other Asian industrial exporters; Poland and the Czech Republic in Europe; Chile, Colombia, Peru, and Mexico in Latin America; Kenya, Rwanda, and a few other economies in Sub-Saharan Africa; and the Gulf oil-exporting countries.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Structural reforms needed to grow faster

The outlook for 2014 is dampened by longer-term constraints as well. Indeed, there is a looming risk of secular stagnation in many advanced economies, owing to the adverse effect on productivity growth of years of under-investment in human and physical capital.
And the structural reforms that these economies need to boost their potential growth will be implemented too slowly.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO -- Roubini: We Are at the very beginning of a Credit Bubble

Roubini: Slow exit will cause frothiness in markets May. 08, 2014 - 4:43 - Roubini Global Economics chairman Nouriel Roubini breaks down how a slow exit from QE will impact the markets and economy.


"All the risky things that were happening back in '06 and '07 are back again to the same level, if not more," "So we are in the beginning of a credit bubble, but just the beginning. A year or two from now, with the policy rate still barely above zero, the risk is that it becomes a full-fledged bubble."
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: Ukraine Could Tip Europe Back to Recession

Nouriel Roubini of Roubini Global Economics, discusses how Russia and Ukraine could affect the European recovery, market preparedness for a potential slowdown in the Chinese economy and why he sees a less dovish Federal Reserve in the near future from the 2014 Milken Global Conference on Bloomberg Television’s “Market Makers.”





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China Risks Hard Landing

 

Despite the reforms set out by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, the shift in China’s growth model from fixed investment toward private consumption will occur too slowly.

Many vested interests, including local governments and state-owned enterprises, are resisting change; a huge volume of private and public debt will go sour; and the country’s leadership is divided on how quickly reforms should be implemented.

So, while China will avoid a hard landing in 2014, its medium-term prospects remain worrisome.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Europe's fundamental problems remain unresolved

Europe's fundamental problems remain unresolved: low potential growth; high unemployment; still-high and rising levels of public debt; loss of competitiveness and slow reduction of unit labor costs (which a strong euro does not help); and extremely tight credit rationing, owing to banks' ongoing de-leveraging.

Meanwhile, progress toward a banking union will be slow, while no steps will be taken toward establishing a fiscal union, even as austerity fatigue and political risks in the euro-zone's periphery grow.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China will Continue 7 percent Growth

China will maintain an annual growth rate above 7% in 2014. But, despite the reforms set out by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, the shift in China’s growth model from fixed investment toward private consumption will occur too slowly. Many vested interests, including local governments and state-owned enterprises, are resisting change; a huge volume of private and public debt will go sour; and the country’s leadership is divided on how quickly reforms should be implemented. So, while China will avoid a hard landing in 2014, its medium-term prospects remain worrisome.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China Weakness is a Risk to Advanced Economies

The deep causes of last year’s turmoil in emerging markets have not disappeared. The risk of a hard landing in China poses a serious threat to emerging Asia, commodity exporters around the world, and even advanced economies.



 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US Economy to Grow faster than Emerging Markets in 2014

The global economy will grow faster in 2014, while tail risks will be lower. But, with the possible exception of the US, growth will remain anaemic in most advanced economies, and emerging-market fragility—including China’s uncertain efforts at economic rebalancing—could become a drag on global growth in subsequent years.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China set to top US as world's No. 1 Economy

The biggest geopolitical risk of our times is not a conflict between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation. Nor is it the risk of chronic disorder in an arc of instability that now runs from the Maghreb all the way to the Hindu Kush. It is not even the risk of Cold War II between Russia and the West over Ukraine.
All of these are serious risks, of course; but none is as serious as the challenge of sustaining the peaceful character of China's rise. That is why it is particularly disturbing to hear Japanese and Chinese officials and analysts compare the countries' bilateral relationship to that between Britain and Germany on the eve of World War I.
The disputes between China and several of its neighbors over disputed islands and maritime claims (starting with the conflict with Japan) are just the tip of the iceberg. As China becomes an even greater economic power, it will become increasingly dependent on shipping routes for its imports of energy, other inputs, and goods. This implies the need to develop a blue-water navy to ensure that China's economy cannot be strangled by a maritime blockade.
But what China considers a defensive imperative could be perceived as aggressive and expansionist by its neighbors and the United States. And what looks like a defensive imperative to the US and its Asian allies — building further military capacity in the region to manage China's rise — could be perceived by China as an aggressive attempt to contain it. - in CNBC



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini & Leading Economists Debate Where the World Is Headed

Leading Economists Debate Where the World Is Headed




 This panel brings together prominent economists to debate a range of issues with global scope: from inequality and emerging markets to austerity policies and the impact of technology on employment. This will be a free-ranging discussion focused on where the world is headed and what can be done to improve economies and people's lives everywhere.

Speakers:

Ken Rogoff, Professor of Economics, Harvard University; Former Chief Economist, International Monetary Fund

Nouriel Roubini, Chairman, Roubini Global Economics; Professor of Economics, Stern School of Business, New York University

John Taylor, Mary and Robert Raymond Professor of Economics, Stanford University; George P. Schultz Senior Fellow in Economics, Hoover Institution
Moderator:

Gerard Baker, Managing Editor, The Wall Street Journal; Editor-in-Chief, Dow Jones & Company


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Global Ground Zero in Asia By Nouriel Roubini

NEW YORK – The biggest geopolitical risk of our times is not a conflict between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation. Nor is it the risk of chronic disorder in an arc of instability that now runs from the Maghreb all the way to the Hindu Kush. It is not even the risk of Cold War II between Russia and the West over Ukraine.
All of these are serious risks, of course; but none is as serious as the challenge of sustaining the peaceful character of China’s rise. That is why it is particularly disturbing to hear Japanese and Chinese officials and analysts compare the countries’ bilateral relationship to that between Britain and Germany on the eve of World War I.
The disputes between China and several of its neighbors over disputed islands and maritime claims (starting with the conflict with Japan) are just the tip of the iceberg. As China becomes an even greater economic power, it will become increasingly dependent on shipping routes for its imports of energy, other inputs, and goods. This implies the need to develop a blue-water navy to ensure that China’s economy cannot be strangled by a maritime blockade.
But what China considers a defensive imperative could be perceived as aggressive and expansionist by its neighbors and the United States. And what looks like a defensive imperative to the US and its Asian allies – building further military capacity in the region to manage China’s rise – could be perceived by China as an aggressive attempt to contain it.
Historically, whenever a new great power has emerged and faced an existing power, military conflict has ensued. The inability to accommodate Germany’s rise led to two world wars in the twentieth century; Japan’s confrontation with another Pacific power – the US – brought World War II to Asia.
Of course, there are no iron laws of history: China and its interlocutors are not fated to repeat the past. Trade, investment, and diplomacy may defuse rising tensions. But will they?
Europe’s great powers finally tired of slaughtering one another. Facing a shared threat from the Soviet bloc and US prodding, European countries created institutions to promote peace and cooperation, leading to economic and monetary union, now a banking union, and possibly in the future a fiscal and political union.
But no such institutions exist in Asia, where long-standing historical grievances among China, Japan, Korea, India, and other countries remain open wounds. Even two of America’s most important allies – Japan and South Korea – find themselves in a bitter dispute about the Korean “comfort women” forced to work in Japanese military brothels before and during World War II, despite an official apology from Japan 20 years ago.
Why are such tensions among Asia’s great powers becoming more serious, and why now?
For starters, Asia’s powers have recently elected or are poised to elect leaders who are more nationalistic than their predecessors. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, Chinese President Xi Jinping, South Korean President Park Geun-hye, and Narendra Modi, who is likely to be India’s next prime minister, all fall into this category.
Second, all of these leaders now face massive challenges stemming from the need for structural reforms to sustain satisfactory growth rates in the face of global economic forces that are disrupting old models. Different types of structural reforms are crucially important in China, Japan, India, Korea, and Indonesia. If leaders in one or more of these countries were to fail on the economic front, they could feel politically constrained to shift the blame onto foreign “enemies.”
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-says-that-if-the-the-global-order-blows-up--the-detonation-will-occur-in-asia#jVO530xoUmmuOgt6.99




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns Canada’s Housing Bubble about to Burst

‘Dr. Doom’ warns Canada’s housing bubble about to burst .
 It’s the doctor versus the governor in the ongoing debate over the direction of Canada’s housing market. On the pessimistic side there’s

Nouriel Roubini , the man known as “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic outlook on the global economy. He recently pinpointed Canada’s housing market as a bubble set to pop.

Canada is in the company of other housing markets that Roubini (known as one of the few to correctly predict the U.S. housing crash) says are showing
“signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles,” including Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Australia and New Zealand. - via ca.finance.yahoo.com




Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

US Economy to Benefit from The Shale-Energy Revolution

In the US, economic performance in 2014 will benefit from the shale-energy revolution, improvement in the labor and housing markets, and the "reshoring" of manufacturing.


The downside risks result from political gridlock in Congress (particularly given the upcoming midterm election in November), which will continue to limit progress on long-term fiscal consolidation; a lack of clarity about the Federal Reserve's planned exit from quantitative easing (QE) and zero policy rates; and regulatory uncertainties.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Skilled Workers vs Blue Collar Workers

Roubini says the Fed is caught in a position where it needs to do more to help the economy, but at the same time, it's beginning to create new bubbles. He referred to what he sees now as "frothiness," pointing in particular to housing, junk bonds, and, potentially, bitcoins. But in two or three years time, Roubini says we could have a problem that leads to another financial crisis.

"Capital will do well, and skilled labor will do well. Blue collar workers, not as much."

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nasim Taleb about Economic Prognosticators

  "Every opinion-maker needs to have 'skin in the game' in the event of harm caused by reliance on his information or opinion....Talk...when it comes to predictions, can be just talk, devoid of embodiment and stripped of true evidence. As in anything with words, it is not the victory of the most correct, but that of the most charming--or the one who can produce the most academic-sounding material....There is no penalty for opinion makers who harm society. And this is very bad practice." Nasim Taleb in his latest book, Antifragile


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : These 5 Emerging Markets are in Real Trouble ...

Many emerging markets are in real trouble. The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year.

But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

BRICS : Emerging Economies May Hit A Thick Wall

"Of course, some of the better-managed emerging-market economies will continue to experience rapid growth and asset outperformance. But many of the Brics, along with some other emerging economies, may hit a thick wall, with growth and financial markets taking a serious beating." - in The Guardian  

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM), iShares MSCI Brazil Index ETF (EWZ), Market Vectors Russia ETF (RSX)


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns : These 17 Countries may have Housing Bubbles

Nouriel Roubini warns of 17 countries that may have housing bubbles: washingtonpost.com/blogs/wonkblog… : Roubini doesn't see bubbles in the places where they were most severe in the pre-2008 period. He doesn't mention the United States or Spain or Ireland. Rather, Roubini sees housing prices getting out of whack in quite a few small and mid-sized nations that are well-governed and managed to avoid the worst economic effects of the financial crisis: Switzerland, Sweden, Norway, Finland, France, Germany, Canada, Australia, New Zealand and the London metropolitan area in the U.K. He adds some key emerging markets that show the same dynamic: Hong Kong, Singapore, China and Israel, and major urban centers in Turkey, Indonesia, India and Brazil.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini in Peru South America

David Lipton y Nouriel Roubini en entrevista con Gustavo Yamada


Gustavo Yamada, Decano de la Facultad de Economía y Finanzas, entrevistó a los reconocidos ecomistas David Lipton, Primer Subdirector Gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), y Nouriel Roubini, Presidente de Roubini Global Economics con motivo del evento "Economía y futuro de Latinoamérica: la juventud opina" realizado en la Universidad del Pacífico.

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini : Africa has come as a positive surprise

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

5 Emerging Markets in Real Trouble are

Many emerging markets are in real trouble. The list includes India, Indonesia, Brazil, Turkey, and South Africa, dubbed the Fragile Five because all have twin fiscal and current account deficits, falling growth rates, above-target inflation, and political uncertainty from upcoming legislative or presidential elections this year.
But five other significant countries—Argentina, Venezuela, Ukraine, Hungary, and Thailand—are also vulnerable. Political and electoral risk can be found in all of them, loose fiscal policy in many of them, and rising external imbalances and sovereign risk in some of them.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Interview in Peru , South America

David Lipton y Nouriel Roubini en entrevista con Gustavo Yamada



Gustavo Yamada, Decano de la Facultad de Economía y Finanzas, entrevistó a los reconocidos ecomistas David Lipton, Primer Subdirector Gerente del Fondo Monetario Internacional (FMI), y Nouriel Roubini, Presidente de Roubini Global Economics con motivo del evento "Economía y futuro de Latinoamérica: la juventud opina" realizado en la Universidad del Pacífico.
 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Emerging Economies at Risk of Rising Inflation

Fed has increased the pace of its QE tapering, structural reforms are not likely until after elections; and incumbent governments have been similarly wary of the growth-depressing effects of tightening fiscal, monetary, and credit policies.
Indeed, the failure of many emerging-market governments to tighten macroeconomic policy sufficiently has led to another round of currency depreciation, which risks feeding into higher inflation and jeopardizing these countries ability to finance twin fiscal and external deficits. Chinese growth is unlikely to accelerate and lift commodity prices;


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Canada needs to Weaken The Loonie

I would say if your currency was 10 percent weaker, that would help manufacturing. It might not be conventional wisdom, but at the margin, I would say, keeping your currency weaker right now, it's important.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns Canada’s Housing Bubble about to Burst

‘Dr. Doom’ warns Canada’s housing bubble about to burst | It’s the doctor versus the governor in the ongoing debate over the direction of Canada’s housing market. On the pessimistic side there’s
Nouriel Roubini, the man known as “Dr. Doom” for his pessimistic outlook on the global economy. He recently pinpointed Canada’s housing market as a bubble set to pop.
Canada is in the company of other housing markets that Roubini (known as one of the few to correctly predict the U.S. housing crash) says are showing “signs of frothiness, if not outright bubbles,” including Switzerland, Sweden, Germany, Australia and New Zealand.


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

There is Risk of a hard landing in China

"For starters, there is the risk of a hard landing in China," said Roubini. Each time GDP growth in China slows toward 7 percent, Chinese authorities "double down" on credit infusions that lead to more bad assets and non-performing loans — a situation he noted could spiral beyond control. - in project-syndicate

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Korean Won is Overvalued

Nouriel Roubini ‏: A latte to go in my Seoul hotel lobby lounge is $15. So maybe the Won is a little overvalued
After Singapore, Hong Kong, Boao, Beijing I am now in Seoul for policy/business meets. Tokyo next. Should Korea worry about Won strength? - in twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini likes South Korea, Malaysia, Phillipines, HK, Singapore

There are plenty of emerging market economies that have good market fundamentals and international policies.

In Asia, we particularly like South Korea, but even countries like Malaysia, the Philippines, Hong Kong or Singapore are solid.

In Europe, countries like Greece that are covered by the recovery in the eurozone could be attractive, or countries like Poland and the Czech Republic can be good economic opportunities as well. 


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Argentina needs Political Stability before upside

President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner of Argentina at this point is a lame duck and cannot run for a new term.
So the next presidential election—whether the winner is going to be Mauricio Macri or Daniel Scioli or any of the other competitors—any of them would likely be more moderate in terms of macro policies and macroeconomic reforms than the current Argentina is.
In spite of the mess, Argentina had a strong rally in its own stock market in local currency terms—and even in foreign currency terms—last year. So there are still economic opportunities there. The macroeconomy can be stabilized. There are huge reserves of shale gas. You could see a surprise on the upside when it’s more clear there will be political and policy changes.


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : The Outlook for Financial Markets, for their Governance and for Finance

 Nouriel Roubini :global economic status quo  The Outlook for Financial Markets, for their governance and for finance.




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Political Unrest is not all Bad News

Nouriel Roubini quote on why political unrest is not all bad news. "A lot of it may lead to better governance and greater commitment to growth-oriented economic policies. In most cases, there is reason to hope that electoral change and political upheaval will give rise to moderate governments whose commitment to market-oriented policies will steadily move their economies in the right direction."


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini Warns that even as many threats to the world economy have receded, new ones have quickly emerged

NEW YORK – The world’s economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability – even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.

A year or two ago, six main risks stood at center stage:
· A eurozone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).

CommentsView/Create comment on this paragraph· A fiscal crisis in the United States (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).

 A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/GDP ratio).

 Deflation in many advanced economies.

 War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.

 A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.

These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, new financial facilities to stabilize distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the eurozone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics” – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

Similarly, the risk of deflation worldwide has been contained via exotic and unconventional monetary policies: near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing, credit easing, and forward guidance. And the risk of a war between Israel and Iran has been reduced by the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear program concluded last November. The falling fear premium has led to a drop in oil prices, even if many doubt Iran’s sincerity and worry that it is merely trying to buy time while still enriching uranium.

Though many Middle East countries remain highly unstable, none of them is systemically important in financial terms, and no conflict so far has seriously shocked global oil and gas supplies. But, of course, exacerbation of some of these crises and conflicts could lead to renewed concerns about energy security. More important, as the risks of recent years have receded, six other risks have been growing.

For starters, there is the risk of a hard landing in China. The rebalancing of growth away from fixed investment and toward private consumption is occurring too slowly, because every time annual GDP growth slows toward 7%, the authorities panic and double down on another round of credit-fueled capital investment. This then leads to more bad assets and non-performing loans, more excessive investment in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity, and more public and private debt. By next year, there may be no road left down which to kick the can.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-warns-that-even-as-many-threats-to-the-world-economy-have-receded--new-ones-have-quickly-emerged#8tLUGw9U1a2UWfxH.99







 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Long term Economic role of Hong Kong challenged by the rise of China

Nouriel Roubini ‏: I am in Hong Kong for policy and business meetings. Long term economic role of HK challenged by the rise of China - in Twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The commercial port of Singapore, one of the busiest in Asia

Nouriel Roubini ‏: The commercial port of Singapore, one of the busiest in Asia at the entrance of the strategic Strait of Malacca - via twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

VIDEO -- Exclusive Interview Nouriel Roubini in Rome - 19th February 2014

Exclusive interview between Nouriel Roubini and Karim Sghaier - 19th February 2014 in Roma
AISM PRESENTS THE FUTURE OF THE EURO ZONE : THE RETURN OF ECONOMIC GROWTH ? 19th February 2014, Palazzo Brancaccio in Roma Exclusive interview between Nouriel Roubini, Doctor in economics Karim Sghaier, Head of sales world, AISM Group

 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini: QE From ECB Likely Too Little Too Late

April 4 (Bloomberg) -- Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics LLC and a professor at New York University, discusses the U.S. ecomomy and the possibility of the European Central Bank implementing a program of quantitative easing. He speaks with Francine Lacqua on Bloomberg Television's "The Pulse" from the Ambrosetti Workshop in Cernobbio, Italy. (Source: Bloomberg)




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

In Japan Abe boosted Growth and stopped Deflation

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics” – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain). - in project-syndicate


 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini Speech at The AISM Conference in Rome February 19, 2014

Intervention Nouriel Roubini, Doctor of Economics (Roubini Global Economics) at the IALA Conference, February 19, 2014 at Palazzo Brancaccio in Rome.




 Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Nouriel Roubini | The changing face of Global Risk

 As during the global financial crisis, investors seem unable to estimate, price, and hedge tail risks properly
by Nouriel Roubini

The world’s economic, financial and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability—even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.

A year or two ago, six main risks stood at centre stage:

l A euro-zone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).

l A fiscal crisis in the US (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).

l A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/gross domestic product or GDP ratio).

l Deflation in many advanced economies.

l War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.

l A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.

These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, new financial facilities to stabilize distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the euro zone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy—monetary easing and fiscal expansion—have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics”—structural reforms—together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

Similarly, the risk of deflation worldwide has been contained via exotic and unconventional monetary policies. And the risk of a war between Israel and Iran has been reduced by the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear programme concluded last November.

Though many Middle East countries remain highly unstable, none of them is systemically important in financial terms, and no conflict so far has seriously shocked global oil and gas supplies. More important, as the risks of recent years have receded, six other risks have been growing.

…read more
Source: livemint.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Markets may be underestimating threats to the global economy

 The risk of a hard landing in China, fears over tapering in the US and the ongoing tensions in Crimea show that there is no room for complacency, writes Nouriel Roubini


The world's economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability – even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.
A year or two ago, six main risks stood at centre stage:
• A eurozone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).
• A fiscal crisis in the United States (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).
• A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/GDP ratio).
• Deflation in many advanced economies.
• War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.
• A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.
These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank president Mario Draghi's "whatever it takes" speech, new financial facilities to stabilise distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the eurozone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.
In Japan, the first two "arrows" of prime minister Shinzo Abe's economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of "Abenomics" – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilisation (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

 read more : http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/02/financial-markets-risks-to-global-economy-nouriel-roubini


  Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Changing Face of Global Risk

NEW YORK – The world’s economic, financial, and geopolitical risks are shifting. Some risks now have a lower probability – even if they are not fully extinguished. Others are becoming more likely and important.

A year or two ago, six main risks stood at center stage:

 A eurozone breakup (including a Greek exit and loss of access to capital markets for Italy and/or Spain).

 A fiscal crisis in the United States (owing to further political fights over the debt ceiling and another government shutdown).

 A public-debt crisis in Japan (as the combination of recession, deflation, and high deficits drove up the debt/GDP ratio).

 Deflation in many advanced economies.

 War between Israel and Iran over alleged Iranian nuclear proliferation.

 A wider breakdown of regional order in the Middle East.

These risks have now been reduced. Thanks to European Central Bank President Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech, new financial facilities to stabilize distressed sovereign debtors, and the beginning of a banking union, the eurozone is no longer on the verge of collapse. In the US, President Barack Obama and Congressional Republicans have for now agreed on a truce to avoid the threat of another government shutdown over the need to raise the debt ceiling.

In Japan, the first two “arrows” of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s economic strategy – monetary easing and fiscal expansion – have boosted growth and stopped deflation. Now the third arrow of “Abenomics” – structural reforms – together with the start of long-term fiscal consolidation, could lead to debt stabilization (though the economic impact of the coming consumption-tax hike is uncertain).

Similarly, the risk of deflation worldwide has been contained via exotic and unconventional monetary policies: near-zero interest rates, quantitative easing, credit easing, and forward guidance. And the risk of a war between Israel and Iran has been reduced by the interim agreement on Iran’s nuclear program concluded last November. The falling fear premium has led to a drop in oil prices, even if many doubt Iran’s sincerity and worry that it is merely trying to buy time while still enriching uranium.

Though many Middle East countries remain highly unstable, none of them is systemically important in financial terms, and no conflict so far has seriously shocked global oil and gas supplies. But, of course, exacerbation of some of these crises and conflicts could lead to renewed concerns about energy security. More important, as the risks of recent years have receded, six other risks have been growing.

For starters, there is the risk of a hard landing in China. The rebalancing of growth away from fixed investment and toward private consumption is occurring too slowly, because every time annual GDP growth slows toward 7%, the authorities panic and double down on another round of credit-fueled capital investment. This then leads to more bad assets and non-performing loans, more excessive investment in real estate, infrastructure, and industrial capacity, and more public and private debt. By next year, there may be no road left down which to kick the can.
Read more at http://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/nouriel-roubini-warns-that-even-as-many-threats-to-the-world-economy-have-receded--new-ones-have-quickly-emerged#3PwIRmGx4oQLobP9.99

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini ‏: Poorly regulated Shadow Banks are becoming bigger

Nouriel Roubini ‏: Poorly regulated shadow banks are becoming bigger "The Growth of Murky Finance - Liberty Street Economics" http://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2014/03/the-growth-of-murky-finance.html#.UzmhrbFoYNE.twitter … via twitter


Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

The Fed will exit only slowly

“The Fed will exit only slowly. I think single digit returns on the US equity this year are warranted. It won’t belike the 25 percent seen last year,” - in moneycontrol.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Potential Growth in the typical Emerging Markets has fallen

“Potential growth in the typical EM has fallen in the last decade by 1 percent to 2 percent. Potential growth will be lower and therefore, one might see the same in the next decade,” - in moneycontrol.com

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics