Nouriel Roubini - Nassim Taleb - Predicting The Crisis

Predicting Crisis: Dr. Doom & the Black Swan How to predict a financial crisis and the five signs of a bear, with Nouriel Roubini, RGE Monitor and Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan author.

Nassim Taleb Do not trust the Banks

Nassim Taleb Says Banks Hijack Us, Can't Be Trusted

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of the best-selling "The Black Swan" and founder of Universa Investments, talks with Bloomberg's Francine Lacqua and Erik Schatzker about the financial crisis and the outlook for U.S. banks.
Taleb speaks on the sidelines of the World Economic Forum meeting in Davos, Switzerland. (Source: Bloomberg)

Roubini Predicts Fiscal Train Wreck

Oct. 29 2010 | With the GOP slated to take over the House, Nouriel Roubini, chairman of Roubini Global Economics, tells CNBC the Congressional gridlock will get even worse, leading to a "fiscal train wreck."

Nassim Taleb, Says Focus on Specific Trades in Selloff Misguided

(Bloomberg) -- Nassim Taleb, a professor at New York University and author of "The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable," talks with Bloomberg's Erik Schatzker about the May 6 stock market selloff and his investment strategy. Taleb also discusses the drivers for the financial crisis, the U.S. economy and the performance of Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke. (Source: Bloomberg)

Nassim Taleb speaks at JMU

Author of "The Black Swan" discussed his economic theories with students at James Madison University.

Inside Job Trailer 2010 HD

Takes a closer look at what brought about the financial meltdown.

Release date: October 8, 2010

Cast: Matt Damon, Barney Frank, Jonathan Alpert, Daniel Alpert, Glenn Hubbard, Nouriel Roubini, Eliot Spitzer

Find tickets: http://www.fandango.com/insidejob_131...

IMDb: http://www.imdb.com/title/tt1645089/

Nouriel Roubini On ET NOW on Coffee and Conversations With Shaili Chopra

Coffee & Conversations With Nouriel Roubini anchored by Shaili Chopra, ET NOW along with Sanjay Nayar, Adi Godrej, Chanda Kochchar of iCICI, Chadrasekharan of TCS and more.

Black Swan Author on the Financial Crisis

Oct. 25 2010 | Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author, "The Black Swan," and NYU professor, discusses who was at fault for the financial crisis, the idea that regulation doesn't work, and why debt is a bad thing.

Roubini : Greece will default

The Greek government will not be able to avoid restructuring its debt despite its ongoing austerity drive, eminent American economist Nouriel Roubini has told Kathimerini.

“If you don’t want to call it default or bankruptcy, call it a restructuring under pressure, but it’s going to happen,” said the New York University professor in an interview published in yesterday’s Kathimerini.

Roubini, who has been dubbed “Dr Doom” for his pessimistic economic outlook, has described Greece as “the Lehman Brothers of Europe” – a reference to the US investment bank whose collapse in 2008 triggered turmoil across the global financial markets.
read entire article >>>>

Arnab Das, G20 Meeting in Focus

Fri. Oct. 22 2010 | The currency wars could come to a head this weekend at the G20 summit. Arnab Das, managing director of market research and strategy of Roubini Global Economics, and Lauren Rosborough, senior currency strategist at Westpac, discuss the outlook.

Niall Ferguson: Chinese More Committed to Capitalism

October 22, 2010 -- In a panel about getting America back from the depths of economic despair at The Daily Beast's Innovators Summit in New Orleans, Niall Ferguson, historian and Harvard Business School professor, told Sir Harold Evans that, "The Chinese are more committed to capitalism than we are."

Nouriel Roubini We need to create the 1,50,000 jobs for every month

Question : Are things looking any better, given what we have seen in this week?

Nouriel Roubini : I would say no. First of all, if you look at the ISM report of manufacturing, they details of it, the inventories versus new orders was terrible, that suggests the actual economic activity is going to slow down manufacturing. The survey of ISM was actually falling, the numbers on jobs last Friday were good only because the expectations were so low. But 67,000 jobs are not enough stabilise the employment rate. We need to create the 1,50,000 jobs for every month to make sure that unemployment rate doesn’t go higher.
via www.moneycontrol.com

Nouriel Roubini on the short and medium-long economic outlook

Nouriel Roubini on short and medium-long economic outlook

- Currency War
- Trade war
- Protectionism
- Emerging markets
- The double dip

Roubini sees weak, V-shaped recovery in Emerging Markets

Economist Nouriel Roubini said that emerging-market growth would fade in this half of 2010 and in 2011, though he continues to predict a “V-shaped” recovery compared to advanced economies’ “U-shaped” path. The World Bank raised its 2010 growth forecast for emerging markets in east Asia excluding China to 6.7 per cent.
via http://blogs.ft.com

Roubini Says German Austerity Will Be Fatal for Economy, Capital Reports

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said Germany’s austerity measures, introduced to fight the aftermath of the financial crisis, are “fatal” for Europe’s largest economy, Capital magazine reported, citing an interview.
via bloomberg.com

Roubini : the stock market is going to correct

Nouriel Roubini : .....the stock market is going to correct, credit spends are going to widen, there will be a negative world effect on consumption investment, the cost of capital is going to rise and then you have another shock to the real economy that went in a vicious circle in which you can go off the cliff. That is what we are facing right now, the banks are sitting on a trillion dollar of excessive reserves, they are not lending it whether it is credit supply or demand.

Nouriel Roubini on jobs creation and economic Growth

Nouriel Roubini : "....If you don’t create jobs there is no labour increment, there is no consumption growth and the risk of a double dip becomes worse. Paradoxically in the last few quarters there has been a switch of distribution of income from labour to capital and to profits and these profits are not being reinvested and firms are not hiring workers. What can we do is difficult, we are in a process of deleveraging which is going to occur for a while. What can we do?—I would try to subsidise the demand for labour. I think instead of having an investment tax credit that boosts even more capex spending, this capital intensive, I would do a temporary cut in the payroll tax for two years. If you want to increase demand for labour rather than demand for capital, I would do a payroll tax rather than investment tax like Obama has suggested. So that would be something that reduces their labour cost for the producers."

Roubini Expects 35-40% Chance of a Double Dip Recession in U.S.

New York University Professor Nouriel Roubini said he expects a 35 percent to 40 percent chance of the U.S. entering a double-dip recession, highlighting the risks faced by the world’s largest economy.

“Since second quarter growth in U.S. was only 1.7 percent and everything’s going to be weaker in the second half of the year, by the fourth quarter economic growth in the U.S. could be as low as 1 percent,” Roubini said in a conference today in Seoul. “The growth rate is so low it’s going to feel like a recession even if technically this is not a recession.”
read article>>>

Nouriel Roubini: This Is What Obama Could Do To Prevent A Double-Dip

BY NOURIEL ROUBINI, MICHAEL MORAN | NOVEMBER 2010

Roughly three years since the onset of the financial crisis, the U.S. economy increasingly looks vulnerable to falling back into recession. The United States is flirting with "stall speed," an anemic rate of growth that, if it persists, can lead to collapses in spending, consumer confidence, credit, and other crucial engines of growth. Call it a "double dip" or the Great Recession, Round II: Whatever the term, we're talking about a negative feedback loop that would be devilishly hard to break.
If Barack Obama wants a realistic shot at a second term, he'll need to act quickly and decisively to prevent this scenario.

read entire article >>>>>>

Jim Wolfensohn, Nouriel Roubini and Chrystia Freeland - US Zeitgeist 2010

Jim Wolfensohn, Nouriel Roubini and Chrystia Freeland - US Zeitgeist 2010

Nouriel Roubini : Rising Sovereign Debt Leads to Inflation, Defaults

“The bond vigilantes are walking out on Greece, Spain, Portugal, the U.K. and Iceland,”  “Unfortunately in the U.S., the bond-market vigilantes are not walking out.” Roubini said during a panel discussion on financial markets at the Milken Institute Global Conference in Beverly Hills, California.
“The thing I worry about is the buildup of sovereign debt,” said Nouriel Roubini, a former adviser to the U.S. Treasury and IMF consultant who in August 2006 predicted a “painful” U.S. recession that came to fruition in December 2007. If the problem isn’t addressed, he said, nations will either fail to meet obligations or see faster inflation as officials “monetize” their debts, or print money to tackle the shortfalls.

“While today markets are worried about Greece, Greece is just the tip of the iceberg, or the canary in the coal mine for a much broader range of fiscal problems,” Roubini, who teaches at NYU’s Stern School of Business, told attendees at the Beverly Hilton hotel. Increasing tax revenue won’t be enough to “save the day,” he added.

Roubini : Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world is not

Nouriel Roubini : "Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world—half of euro zone is not growing, it is contracted, the periphery, Japan is on a verge of a double dip, emerging markets are doing well but many of them like China depend on economic growth in West Europe and Japan. Therefore the slowdown of US, Europe and Japan is already leading to an economic slowdown in China and India and even in Brazil and thus they cannot be remained locomotives of global growth, China is not large enough to be the only engine global growth, we need growth in United States, in Europe and Japan that is not occurring."
via www.moneycontrol.com

Roubini, Volcker Both Issue Grim Outlooks For U.S. Economy

Former Federal Reserve chairman Paul Volcker and economist Nouriel Roubini seem equally pessimistic about a U.S. economic recovery.

"This has not been an ordinary recession," Volcker, who chairs the president's Economic Recovery Advisory Board, said in a Toronto speech Thursday, according to Bloomberg, and he added that it's "very difficult to find a sector in the American economy that has any spark to it."

Roubini, chairman and co-founder of Roubini Global Economics, expressed a similarly bleak outlook, reiterating his belief that there's a 40 percent chance the economy could slip into another recession, Market Watch reports. Even without a double dip, it will feel like the economy is in a recession, he added. Roubini, whom the New York Times has labeled "Dr. Doom," and who in 2006 predicted the housing crisis, first tweeted the double-dip probability in August and stuck to that belief in September.
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Nouriel Roubini - US Zeitgeist 2010

Nouriel Roubini: The age of the West is over . “There is an absolute fall in the performance of advanced economies,” Roubini said during this talk at the Google Zeitgeist conference.

Roubini : China may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the US and Europe

"China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the US and Europe " New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, where he is attending a conference.“We know the second half of the year is going to be worse than the first half of the year because of the tailwinds to growth from the fiscal stimulus” turning into austerity, he said. “The main scenario is an anemic recovery, but I don’t rule out that a double-dip will occur” in the US, Roubini added .

Roubini : Japan is on a verge of a double

Nouriel Roubini :"Emerging markets are growing but rest of the world—half of euro zone is not growing, it is contracted, the periphery, Japan is on a verge of a double dip, emerging markets are doing well but many of them like China depend on economic growth in West Europe and Japan. Therefore the slowdown of US, Europe and Japan is already leading to an economic slowdown in China and India and even in Brazil and thus they cannot be remained locomotives of global growth, China is not large enough to be the only engine global growth, we need growth in United States, in Europe and Japan that is not occurring."
in www.moneycontrol.com

Roubini : The Too Bigger to Fail Risk for U.S.

“The ‘too big to fail’ problem has become an even too bigger to fail” problem, “That is what happens when you do mergers that don’t make any sense.” Roubini said today at the Bloomberg Dealmakers Summit in New York.
in bloomberg.com

How black is your swan - Nassim Taleb

You may or may not swallow every word of The Black Swan series. Some say all swans are grey, it is only the shade of grey that varies.

In this June 2010 interview, in just 7 minutes of video, Nassim Taleb & Nouriel Roubini alert listeners to the folly of taking private debt public, then paying it down by inflation (a charge on the succeeding generations). And if you aren't concerned, well thats OK - US debt sits only at 11% of GDP, which is still short of the 13% at which the bond vigilantes pulled the rug on Greece.