Roubini : China is not in Free-fall

"China is not in free-fall," he told the Ambrosetti forum 2015 held at Villa d'Este in Cernobbio on Lake Como in Northern Italy.
"None of this is happening. The slowdown in China is neither a hard landing or a soft landing, it's a bumpy landing. It could be better managed but growth is not likely to be worse than 6.5pc this year and 6pc next year," he added

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini forecasts a swiftly slowing China

From Yahoo:

Roubini Global Economics, a leading provider of independent, global macroeconomic research, forecasts China’s 2016 GDP growth at 5.4%—well below the current Bloomberg consensus projection of 6.7%.

“Our recent trip to China underscored the myriad challenges facing the Chinese economy, which is now in the midst of a marked slowdown. Efforts to reorient the economy toward domestic consumption are not occurring quickly enough and President Xi Jinping’s stance on the reform question is a matter of considerable speculation,” said Chairman Nouriel Roubini. “The next few quarters will tell us whether he will commit to making serious changes or opt to maintain the status quo.”
Read More @ http://www.macrobusiness.com.au/2014/12/roubini-forecasts-a-swiftly-slowing-china





Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

CHINA -- The Biggest Geopolitical Risk of our Time

The biggest geopolitical risk of our times is not a conflict between Israel and Iran over nuclear proliferation. Nor is it the risk of chronic disorder in an arc of instability that now runs from the Maghreb all the way to the Hindu Kush. It is not even the risk of cold war II between Russia and the west over Ukraine.

All of these are serious risks, of course; but none is as serious as the challenge of sustaining the peaceful character of China's rise. That is why it is particularly disturbing to hear Japanese and Chinese officials and analysts compare the countries' bilateral relationship to that between Britain and Germany on the eve of the first world war.

The disputes between China and several of its neighbours over disputed islands and maritime claims (starting with the conflict with Japan) are just the tip of the iceberg. As China becomes an even greater economic power, it will become increasingly dependent on shipping routes for its imports of energy, other inputs, and goods. This implies the need to develop a blue-water navy to ensure that China's economy cannot be strangled by a maritime blockade.

http://www.theguardian.com/business/2014/apr/30/project-syndicate-china-peaceful-rise-biggest-geopolitical-challenge



Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China will maintain an annual Growth Rate above 7% in 2014

China will maintain an annual growth rate above 7% in 2014. But, despite the reforms set out by the Third Plenum of the Communist Party’s Central Committee, the shift in China’s growth model from fixed investment toward private consumption will occur too slowly. Many vested interests, including local governments and state-owned enterprises, are resisting change; a huge volume of private and public debt will go sour; and the country’s leadership is divided on how quickly reforms should be implemented. So, while China will avoid a hard landing in 2014, its medium-term prospects remain worrisome. - in project-syndicate.org

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Markets Are Underpricing The Risk Of A Slowdown In China

"In my view, the markets are underpricing the risk of a slowdown in China. We expect this year the growth in China would be 7.4%, whereas the consensus is above 8 percent." - in Economic Times

Related ETFs: iShares MSCI Emerging Markets (ETF) (EEM), iShares FTSE/Xinhua China 25 Index (ETF) (NYSE:FXI)

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

China: A Hard Landing Becomes More Likely In 2013

But a hard landing becomes more likely in 2013, as the stimulus fades, nonperforming loans rise, the investment bust accelerates, and the problem of rolling over the debts of provincial governments and their special investment vehicles can no longer be papered over. - in Irish Times
Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Roubini : Indonesia could Grow faster than China and India

“Countries like India, Brazil, Turkey, South Africa and Ukraine [are also running deficits], but I would not put Indonesia in this group, even if Indonesia has some macro-financial fragility,” he said Saturday in his remarks delivered during the CEO Summit conference held as part of the APEC leaders meetings.“With the right economic reforms, the growth of Indonesia in the second half of this decade could even be higher than China and India,” Roubini predicted. - in The Jakarta Post

NOURIEL ROUBINI

Nouriel Roubini is an American professor of Economics at New York University`s Stern School of Business and chairman of RGE Roubini Global Economics

Low Growth: Brazil, Russia, China & South Africa

"Brazil's GDP grew by only 1% last year, and may not grow by more than 2% this year, with its potential growth barely above 3%. Russia's economy may grow by barely 2% this year, with potential growth also at around 3%, despite oil prices being around $100 a barrel. India had a couple of years of strong growth recently (11.2% in 2010 and 7.7% in 2011) but slowed to 4% in 2012. China's economy grew by 10% a year for the last three decades, but slowed to 7.8% last year and risks a hard landing. And South Africa grew by only 2.5% last year and may not grow faster than 2% this year." - an excerpt from the article Is the emerging market boom over?

Roubini ‏: The problem of air/water quality & the issue of food safety is the most disruptive social issue in China

Nouriel Roubini ‏: " The problem of air/water quality & the issue of food safety is the most disruptive social issue in China. Local middle class is very"
"Beijing isnt architectonically as pretty as Shanghai but is home to artists, intellectuals, writers, internet start-ups & the creative class" - in twitter

Roubini : Weibo, the Chinese Twitter, is becoming Chinas version of democracy

Nouriel Roubini : "Weibo, the Chinese version of Twitter, is becoming China's version of democracy and free press bypassing the lack of formal democracy" - in a twitter message

Nouriel Roubini on China

“Biggest concern in meetings in Hong Kong: will the US default on its debt? Folks here are shocked by the dysfunctional US political system” Nouriel Roubini Wrote via twitter

Roubini : China, India , Brazil are the only few bright spots

Roubini : I'm a realist. I can only see a few bright spots in some countries like China, India or Brazil. But the rest? The US economic recovery has been anemic, Japan looks comatose, and Europe is facing a double dip. The Continent is vulnerable to falling back into recession. Even before the Greek shock, the outlook was rather moderate, but now euro zone growth is closer to zero.
in www.spiegel.de

Roubini : China Needs To Radically Change Its Broken Growth Model.

Nouriel Roubini :..."Clearly China needs to radically change its broken growth model in the direction of reduced exports, investment and savings, and increased consumption. But there are structural—and cultural—reasons why the Chinese save so much and consume so little. Radical policy reforms may take more than a generation to rebalance the Chinese economy toward a more sustainable growth model." - in www.newsweek.com

Roubini : China will have more challenges than India As far as sustaining growth is concerned

Nouriel Roubini :"As far as sustaining growth is concerned, China will have more challenges than India. Their economy is characterised by dependence on the US as the consumer of first and last resort, a mode of growth that has been challenged today" via www.thehindubusinessline.com

Roubini : Yuan appreciation in China's interest

"Today China is overheating, inflation is rising, there is excessive monetary growth, excessive credit growth, beginning of asset bubbles,"
"One of the ways which China can control this risk is to allow a faster rate of appreciation of the currency," , said Professor Nouriel Roubini, who teaches at New York University known in financial circles as Dr. Doom for being amongst the few economic commentators who forecast the global crisis in 2006.
in www.businessweek.com

Roubini on The Currency Wars and China

Nov. 19 2010 | Fed chief Bernanke scolding China and others in his Frankfurt speech saying currency manipulation is hurting the global recovery, with Jim Rickards, Omnis; Ian Bremmer, Eurasia Group; and Nouriel Roubini, Roubini Global Economics.

Nouriel Roubini on Europe, QE2 and China

Nouriel Roubini on Europe, Quantitative Easing 2 & China


"The ECB should provide more financial liquidity in the financial system," Nouriel Roubini, co-founder & chairman of RGE Monitor told CNBC.

Roubini : China may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the US and Europe

"China, the world’s fastest-growing major economy, may face greater headwinds should there be weak growth in the US and Europe " New York University professor Nouriel Roubini said in Kuala Lumpur on Monday, where he is attending a conference.“We know the second half of the year is going to be worse than the first half of the year because of the tailwinds to growth from the fiscal stimulus” turning into austerity, he said. “The main scenario is an anemic recovery, but I don’t rule out that a double-dip will occur” in the US, Roubini added .

Roubini : 20% Yuan Rise Wont Hurt China

Sept. 26 2010 | A 20% appreciation of the yuan won't hurt China, says Nouriel Roubini, chairman at Roubini Global Economics, as he believes it won't happen all at once. He sheds light on the yuan, with CNBC's Martin Soong.

Roubini : China has no option but to accumulate dollar reserves

Nouriel Roubini :" In the short run, China has no option but to accumulate dollar reserves. Why? Because if they stop doing that, their currency would appreciate sharply while their exports are plunging. China cannot afford to let its currency appreciate any further, and to prevent the appreciation given their current and capital accounts they have to buy another $300 [billion] or $400 billion of reserves this year alone.

But I have seen a huge number of new initiatives in the last month after China expressed its worries that suggest they are pushing for the yuan to become an international currency and a reserve currency. . . .

They want to create a yuan zone in Asia. They are pushing for inter-Asian trade to be conducted in yuan. They are taking several steps that will lead their own currency to become an international currency. "
via The Washington post